NBA Plays (Finals)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular Season: 78-62-1 (+27.07)

Playoffs: 24-22-1 (+9.35)

Overall: 102-84-2 (+36.42)

Gonna make my Game 1 play now at risk of the league deploying their #1 'Influencer'.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -5.5 -115 (3.45 to win 3)

Ran the numbers and they like the Dubs in the first instalment, more than likely zag in Game 2.

Have it lined at lined at 6.5, using Elo and other 'predictors'.

Gonna ignore the fact they're coming off a long, emotional series. This team has very few weaknesses in that sense.

Will add more thoughts later.

:popcorn:
 
Thanks Hugh.

Mauer, Davis and Malloy are the officials. Obvious Foster or DC is gonna work Game 2.

Dubs haven't lost a game when Mauer has officiated so far this postseason (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS).
 
Shit, this shit right here...is for the thugs in the street
Do yall here me?
Shit, and this shit right here...will get you mugged in the street
 
Thanks fellas.

'Validation' series for the Dubs given how peeps say they 'luck-boxed' last years 'ship.

Subtraction by addition for Cavs, imo.

Yeah they have Kyrie and Love this time around but it's basically multiple bad defenders on the floor at the same time.

Dubs should feast, especially Scurry on Kyrie and good luck defending the Scurry-Green pick and roll Kevin Love.

Not having them last postseason brought out the best in LeCramps,

Dude played his game in that series now they're attempting to play 'Dub-ball' vs the team that invented it.

Dubs in 5 or 6 but stranger things have happened.
 
LeBron 1-5 SU and ATS in Game 1 of the Finals in his career (on an 0-4 SU and ATS run, only win was vs the Mavs in 2010/11).
 
And again, in the NBA we know - there really is no parity, the better team always wins 99.9% of the time.

Fact: Cavs are not the better team in this series.
 
Canes1 said:
Agree with your thoughts here.

Line dropping from 6 earlier to 5.5 now.
Click to expand...

Not concerned. Have a team that only lost 2 playoff games vs a team that somewhat struggled in their last series.

Case of 'recency bias', shit should correct itself after the Cavs get their doors blown off in Game 1 (hopefully).

Percentages not too severe...

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody" style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NBA - 6/2/2016[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]6/02

9:05 PM


501 Cleveland Cavaliers
502 Golden State Warriors

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]45%
55%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]63%
37%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Thanks fellas.

Warriors pretty underrated in this series, overall series price is cheap all things considered.

The whole 'Kyrie and Love' didn't play the last series has folks whipped.

Spread for Game 1 of the Finals last season fluctuated between 5.5 and 6 (opened at 5.5), nothing to see here.
 
Concur, they are cheap in this but what do I know

GL em, keep on keepin on :beer4:
 
emkee said:
Not concerned. Have a team that only lost 2 playoff games vs a team that somewhat struggled in their last series.

Case of 'recency bias', shit should correct itself after the Cavs get their doors blown off in Game 1 (hopefully).

Percentages not too severe...

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody" style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NBA - 6/2/2016[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]6/02

9:05 PM


501 Cleveland Cavaliers
502 Golden State Warriors

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]45%
55%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]63%
37%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

Meant to add that it makes me feel even better. Let's get a hammer
 
adding...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -6 (2 units)

Small play, thoughts in a bit.

:popcorn:
 
Ain't gonna get handcuffed by the ref stats etc, same predictors have the Dubs by a decent margin.

Will play it accordingly albeit small just because the Ghost of Stern is real.

If the league beats me so be it, if JR Smith and that Cavs' bench beat me then so be it as well.

Will get it back and then some in Game 3 should that be the case.
 
Fact the Dubs lost Game 2 last year and proceeded to go down 2-1 should keep them focused because the Cavs are better this time around,

Right ?
 
Watching the dubs pre-game show they have a stat saying that they're 4-4 with Scott Foster officiating their games and 25-6 without him officiating. I think it's funny how even the warriors pre game analysts are worried.
 
emkee said:
Fact the Dubs lost Game 2 last year and proceeded to go down 2-1 should keep them focused because the Cavs are better this time around,

Right ?
Click to expand...

Well I'm sure they learned the importance of it but it still didn't prevent them from splitting their first 2 home games w/ OKC. Also believe with the change back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format it's not as crucial to win both home games because you know that even if swept on the road you get game 5 back on your homecourt. Since reverting back the last 2 Finals had the home team lose game 2 and go on to win the series.
 
Laying the points is the only way to go IMO but there's an army of the willing that will do whatever it takes to keep the Dubz from rolling...

With that said this team is good enough to overcome all of that.

But watch the out of bounds, touch fouls on perimeter, and rebounding fouls
 
ArizonaKid said:
Well I'm sure they learned the importance of it but it still didn't prevent them from splitting their first 2 home games w/ OKC. Also believe with the change back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format it's not as crucial to win both home games because you know that even if swept on the road you get game 5 back on your homecourt. Since reverting back the last 2 Finals had the home team lose game 2 and go on to win the series.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but with all the talk form Chuck and Co about had the Cavs had Kyrie and Live last postseason they would have won bullshit.

If I'm the Dubs, I'd be out for the sweep or at the very least a 5 game series.

That being said the Dubs make a shit-ton of revenue per home playoff game. It's insane, 15k for 5th row seats.
 
Dropping it early...

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

The play...

Cavaliers ML -115 (3 to win 2.61)

:popcorn:
 
So far our thoughts are the same about the Finals. I say that Cleveland win Game 3 and Dubs close the series in Game 5 at home...

Good luck!
 
Thanks Divol.

Looks like I jumped the gun on Cleveland, can get +100 at some places now.

Surprised the odds have flipped but obviously not surprised as well given how Game's 1 and 2 turned out.

Expecting Danny Crawford, Mike Callahan and possibly Zach Zarba in Game 3. LeCramps save-face game.

This is it for the LeCramps Cavs 2.0, lose Game 3 and these dudes gonna get churned the fuck out.

They ugly it up, go big and grind out a win with some league assistance.

Dubs would also be nuts to turn down the revenue of a closeout Game 5, they make a small fortune every playoff home game.

We shall see, if it loses will it sets up a big win back the following game.

Either way I actually do trust LeCramps in this spot.
 
Boy oh boy, did not see you going this way at all, especially with how disorganized (and disinterested) the Cavs looked on offense last night (and especially with how many times the Cavs have burnt you this season). Either way, have to defer to your judgment on this one. Good luck!
 
Thanks Hugh.

Have to wipe the slate clean at this point of the series and forget about what we just witnessed in the Bay.

Best and only chance realistically for the lesser, beaten, overmatched team to win a game is the immediate change of venue i.e. Game 3.

Dominant team usually comes in relaxed with the series in-hand and gets ambushed.

Was guilty of not complying in Game 3 of the ECF's but will do my duty here.

Dubs 3-4 SU and ATS on the road this postseason with a -3.5 points differential,

Compared to Oracle, 11-1 SU (9-3 ATS) +15.1 points differential.

The lack of rebounding really shows up for the Dubs on the road and should be more of a factor here.

Basically an auto-play win or lose.
 
Also the Dubs bench and role-players won't have the same success on the road,

If anything shit should flip with the Cavs bench guys producing something.

Curry and Klay haven't really done much in the 2 previous games, bench won Game 1 and Dray basically won Game 2.

Willing to take the risk the Cavs improve at least for 1 game in their own building whereas the Dubs drop off some.
 
Cavs probably have it in them to win game three with the crowd behind them, some of the no show guys (everyone) should show up. My concern is that the team plays off Bron (Captain Obvious observation), and I sure don't like his body language. Have seen it before, about 6 or 7 years ago. Let's hope you're right, em. Don't want 'em booed out of the building.
 
emkee said:
Thanks Divol.

Looks like I jumped the gun on Cleveland, can get +100 at some places now.

Surprised the odds have flipped but obviously not surprised as well given how Game's 1 and 2 turned out.

Expecting Danny Crawford, Mike Callahan and possibly Zach Zarba in Game 3. LeCramps save-face game.

This is it for the LeCramps Cavs 2.0, lose Game 3 and these dudes gonna get churned the fuck out.

They ugly it up, go big and grind out a win with some league assistance.

Dubs would also be nuts to turn down the revenue of a closeout Game 5, they make a small fortune every playoff home game.

We shall see, if it loses will it sets up a big win back the following game.

Either way I actually do trust LeCramps in this spot.
Click to expand...


GL emkee

sad that all this info is relevant and the league does the agenda thing

scary thing, the W's are so good they could blow through the agenda
 
I think Smith and Irving finally show up at home. I am done betting nba but this is line in the sand time for Cavs and environment will be amazing I would think. Good luck. I agree with it ( so you will need to be extra correct to overcome my mush abilities)
 
No agendas, though they should get a kind whistle back at the Q.

No doubt Cramps ripped into them on the plane ride back to Cleveland even though his rotations on defense were some of the worst.

Kyrie should play better in the comforts of home after looking like overwhelmed kid in the first 2 games,

Dude was literally shitting himself.

Pass the ball and start Frye, fuck the ISO shit.
 
Spreads 'em out better, it's 3 on 5 anyway with Love and Kyrie.

Mosgov is not the answer, dude stinks and would set the Cavs back.

It's the lack of movement that's killing the Cavs and the fact the Dubs are a great team obviously.

Outside of Cramps, RJ and TT the rest of the Cavs were roadkill,

Panic induced iso-ball on O - too much reckless switching on D creating confusion,

with dudes not knowing who they were guarding down the floor.

That being said I'm pretty confident Cramps and crew get Game 3.

3rd game is where the 'underdog' generally throws it's best punch.
 
if Cavs win a game its this one...1Q and maybe 1H good bets here

if down 3-0 doubt they lack the fortitude to win 4 unless GSW screws around and wants to win at home
but me thinks on the other hand if up 3-0, GSW would love to cement their place in history and sweep LeBum in his own house

GL Em
 
Thanks Ret.

A stroll though the interwebs revealed many a mush on the Cavs tonight, gonna be fun.
 
Curry's Dubs are 2-8 ATS (3-7 SU) in playoff Game 3's.

Home faves down 0-2 are 42-18 SU (36-22 ATS) in Game 3's.
 
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