NBA ML dogs 12.13

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs:33-53, 38.37%, +7.635units
spreads:36-26-3, 55.38%, +21.374 units

I already have this:

Suns -10 (+113) 2 units

mac pointed out how many large dogs there are today, mr21 suggested portland might be worth our time, and I totally agree. I think Charlotte has good value at 565, but first and foremost, I have to think a team has a shot to win. Are Lebron and Hughes playing, yup, so I'm not so sure...

HERE'S THE THING about that one...Word is that the lineup may be back to normalized with Knight back in and PornStache coming off the bench again. If Brevin plays, then we have a shot. Anyone willing to take a flyer on Knight playing?

...I am SO not a believer in the Nets. See my rant a couple days ago before I bet the grizzlies against them and they crushed me on that one. Even blind squirrels find the nuts occasionally. Bucks are a crappy road team. Perhaps the have a surprisingly good day and VC is thinking about banging someone instead of shooting.

Bucks +260

In any case, I don't think MILK is this much worse than NJ even assuming the Nets don't shit the bed at home (which they seem to semi regularly). What do they have on the interior who will stop the MILK rebounding and inside game? There is no Howard here, citizen. Move along. I like this one. a lot.

I also like Portland. Memphis and port have some of the same issues, and the blazers even showed the other night that they could play without Zach occasionally. I don't see a number for that one yet.

Seattle looks interesting to me at 430. I would expect Chicago's run to continue, but it won't go into perpetuity, and I don't believe the Bulls are an 80 or even 75% team...and this seattle team might just be the sort that might surprise them with a good shooting night.

I also hopped on the

Dallas/Lakers Over 195 2 units

comments, thoughts on these dogs, today? I agree with mac that we should have a couple come in. The Twolves aren't on my radar screen, btw. If I bet them, the Spurs will spectacularly cover. That's how it works.

The list

Suns -10 (+113) 2 units
Lakers/Mavs O195 (+100) 2 units
Utah -4.5 (+113) 2 units
Bucks +260
Hawks +265
Bobcats +565
Blazers +207
Pacers +126
76ers +151
 
What would make SEA tough to win is it appears Earl Watson will not play(logged only 9 minutes and left early). That leaves them with literally no bench(Gelebale , petro , Wilks..). Petro last nite contributed a huge 6 of 6 for 12 pts in 12 minutes. I am not a big fatigue guy(also 3rd in 4 nites) buts its basically 5 Sonics vs a very deep chi team....crazier shit has happened though..

It seems Knight will play here...BOL
 
oh man...I like the Hawks chances at 2.5:1....hope it's up there. It sure should be at +7.

for the record, I do not like at all for the odds the following teams:

Clippers
Raptors
Lakers
76ers
Heat

not at all.

:down:
 
SportsNut said:
What would make SEA tough to win is it appears Earl Watson will not play(logged only 9 minutes and left early). That leaves them with literally no bench(Gelebale , petro , Wilks..). Petro last nite contributed a huge 6 of 6 for 12 pts in 12 minutes. I am not a big fatigue guy(also 3rd in 4 nites) buts its basically 5 Sonics vs a very deep chi team....crazier shit has happened though..

It seems Knight will play here...BOL
Click to expand...

Did not know that about watson...and you're absolutely right. They'll fade in the second half.

Alas. Not sure I want to lay 10 with chicago tho...

Thanks for knight. I am giving it a try. I am utterly certain this team isn't this much worse than the Lebrons when it's healthy. Hell, weren't we talking about how surprisingly good the Bobcats performances were early on?

Bobcats +565
 
I think with Seattle's success ATS away you will see this drift lower maybe an 8.5..?? If Chi didnt have such a track record of starting fast I might wait to halftime but I am exploring the possibility of playing CHI even at such a big number...not sure though..

I like Char alot(talentwise)...Knight is so crucial and I just want to stay away from this one I think. Char has 3 awful losses now all 20+ at home and thought Knight will play at what level? Also Cle has the revenge angle working as the Bobcats defeated them at home earlier...FLip side is Gooden still questionable ......and Bobcats have played cavs tight past few in the series including OT the last 2 in Cle...wish ya luck on that would be nice..

Still with ya on fading those Nets...do like the Pacers a great deal and even Philly some..

GL
 
pacers at 135...last time out several of the pacers had food poisoning. My guess is they'll avoid that restaurant for the rest of their lives...even oneal is probable. That sheds a different light on things. Still, I think I'd like to see if he's there and if that hammy is giving him trouble. Al and Jermaine really are the crux of that team...

GL with that.

Philly, I do like, don't get me wrong. I just think 120 is stingy. At 150, I have to think about it. Below that, I don't have to.

YES. It is arbitrary in my delusional mind...but it works for me.
 
Portland +207

I'll take 2:1 here every damn day against Memphis.

I strongly urge a spread play on the blazers, too +6 (-105)pinny is not at all a raw deal...though I could be completely wrong and frequently I am.

:shake:
 
good thing I hit charlotte at 565.

It's at 680(pinny) now.

angry.gif
 
Okay...I have to start thinking about philly now. I hate to because that game is going to suck shit through a lawnmower. However, Boston laying 3 yielding +149 to the 76ers who are likely extremely interested in a win without Ivy...well....

and this is a game the 76ers can win. All they need to do is hold pierce under 35.

...I would think.

thoughts?
 
redbearde said:
Okay...I have to start thinking about philly now. I hate to because that game is going to suck shit through a lawnmower. However, Boston laying 3 yielding +149 to the 76ers who are likely extremely interested in a win without Ivy...well....

and this is a game the 76ers can win. All they need to do is hold pierce under 35.

...I would think.

thoughts?
Click to expand...
whats the status of wally?
 
I am ASSuming Wally will not be playing.

He apparently has now Run With The Team. Donbest lists him as Questionable which is profoundly unhelpful. We Shall See...

As a side note, Delonte West has apparently Injured his Ass. I had no idea he was on the downlo...at any rate, he is probable, and my guess is that it will only affect his ability to hold the bench securely to the floor.
 
Its funny were talking about Char and saw you+565...then I am looking and seeing +660..sayin to myself did he just miss type that? How could a mL move so much...?? that really sucks ...I guess the consolation is IF you win it +500 or +600 really deosnt matter much cause its still huge!! Crazy move...

With Philly I dont think waiting to get better then +120 is arbitrary I think it logical actually.....its least in my warped world...huge difference bweteen 120 and the 140-160 range...120 feeels like even money..almsot rather have the pts..

Agree with port the game 6 aspect of the trip is really all that scares me...

With Indy I think while +130 isnt much they should be -130 IMHO...
 
redbearde said:
Portland +207

I'll take 2:1 here every damn day against Memphis.

I strongly urge a spread play on the blazers, too +6 (-105)pinny is not at all a raw deal...though I could be completely wrong and frequently I am.

:shake:
Click to expand...

I'm already on POR for game (+6), 1Q, and ML. Probably put .5 units on ATL ML also. GL tonight:cheers:
 
GL mr21. Let's do it.

SN, the thing that scares me with indy is that Detroit isn't a bad team and that would be hoping for the flat opening...it has been a while since their last game, tho, hasn't it? Geez, yeah, 4 days off. Well, I'm just not feelin it on this one.

and I'm going to wait a while on the 76ers...I think that will rise some more. Celts are -3 (-113), and unlike football, they seem to keep the ML and spread numbers fairly connected in the NBA. I've seen well over full dollars difference in FB...not so much in this. A few cents here and there, and pinny moves em.
 
thecakeoff said:
BOS win 3 straight on the road?
Click to expand...

that would be hysterical, wouldn't it?

Yeah, I think I will take philly. Just waiting on the line to rise. Looks like folks are betting this one up almost as much as they are the Suns...
 
ML dog record: 33-44 +19.94 units
Spread record: 6-4 +1.62 units

Redbearde, nice thoughts on the games.

For Wednesday so far, one unit each on:

Miami +600
Milwaukee +270
Portland +207
LA Lakers +350

With the Heat, yes I know that Wade is out, yes I know that Shaq is still out. The Heat without those two are about as good as Memphis, but they're still an NBA team! Yes, it's true. Sportnut has pointed out often you'll see teams with a star out step it up a notch. The Heat will need a good night from Kopono as he'll probably get the start, but he's having a pretty good year this year so far and getting the most PT of his career (the guy can shoot). A lot of people thought that the Suns streak would end on Monday, I think they missed it by one game.

Milwaukee: I have pretty much the same reasoning as you on this red. The Nets just aren't a consistent team. It looks like Collins will probably be out for them, which will make it tougher to contain Bogut and Villaneuva on the inside. The Bucks got a nice come from behind win in the final minutes last night so hopefully that will spark them to keep it going here.

Portland: Memphis just can't seem to get it together. There will be value on them soon, as Gasol could be back as soon as Saturday against the Heat. But here, I just have to take the Blazers who are having an incredible road trip (for them). They're probably tired, but I wouldn't have thought they'd have a chance to win 4 out of 6 on this trip.

Lakers: Again, this line looks like a bit of an overreaction to Odom being out. But any number of guys can pick it up in his absence. Kobe can do the extra scoring, Walton can bang the boards. I tend to think Dallas misses Stackhouse more than the Lakers will miss Odom (BTW I'm assuming Stackhouse will still be out, but I don't know that for sure). The Lakers aren't strangers to winning in Dallas; they've won there twice in the last two years as 8 and 7 point dogs.

Alright there's still a few I'm pondering here. I may end up on Atlanta and/or Charlotte with you redbearde.

I'm trying to remember the last time I saw a card where most of the favorites lines were this inflated.

:shake:
 
yeah. HUGE value on the ML dogs tonight...and I can't argue with the heat play, really. Except that I don't expect them to have much chance at all of winning.

Perhaps Charlotte strikes other folken the same.

I'm also not entirely averse to the Lakers play...especially had it been kobe that got hurt instead of Odom. But without Lamar, I like the lakers a lot less. The Mavs sure have been dropping piles of shit all over the court...

Charlotte is at 660, now, and philly is still moving up at 152...crazy fave chalk today. whatever will eckofiger do?
 
note for tomorrow...

depending on how the Bobcats and Magic look tonight, we may get some good value on the ML tomorrow........clearly not if Charlotte wins tonight, but with another spectacular blowout loss, consider a rebound spot against Orlando tomorrow.

ymmv
 
Odom is so critical for the LAL offense for his assists and being the only other dependable scorer besides kobe. Smush, kwame, bynum are pretty soft. However, walton has been steady and I like farmar and mo evans off the bench. Right now I'm leaning towards DAL and playing them in 1Q (-3)
 
Yeah, the bench carried that team yesterday...amazing thing is it was Houston really that let the game slip away rather than the Lakers TAKING it, you know?

they definitely need Odom.
 
I look forward to getting more and more people involved. Perhaps you see something we haven't noticed.

Welcome to the site!
 
Kobe taking over is the death knell for that team. YES he is incredible, but he cannot score 81 every night.
 
Here's a little 1,000 to 1 parlay I've played for a buck:

Basketball - 703 Charlotte Bobcats +500 for Game
Basketball - 721 Seattle Supersonics +400 for Game
Basketball - 723 Los Angeles Lakers +340 for Game
Basketball - 726 Los Angeles Clippers +135 for Game
Basketball - 739 Wake Forest +250 for Game

1.00 to win 1,084.70

If it loses, I guess I'll have to drink one less beer today.
 
Here's my thing with Indy / Det..

couple games ago we saw what in my eyes and how I look at these lines were FAT Det spreads. They should have not been -4 in Cha nor -10 vs Port somewhere around 2.5 pts to heavy. Basically they got hot(8 straight) and eventually their lines gets inflated. Anyway they go to Dallas catch 7 and win convincingly and then catch 4 in ORL and win a squeaker.

Now more then just indivual matchups I like to compare what I call a teams overall spread strength / value...its nothing scientific just something I like to use to see how lines are being adjusted. Anyway early on when Ind hosted Orl they were -5 and covered . Now recently Orl again at the end of the trip came into Indiana as only -2. The way I saw it I remembered the 1st meeting I had -5 as a little high so this time in I was thinking 3.5 or 4...anyway it was basically -2 cause ORL had such a strong trip and Ind had faded at the end of the trip...long story short I saw alot of value in Indy -2 ...which they covered...due to perception adjustments

So that leads us tonite...Det has been rested which I said leads to flat performances but its just a factor..Ind has been shorthanded and looked shitty of late ...

Basically I start looking by at my neutral court theory...what would a team be on a neutral court and try to adjust theat based on how one teams plays at home and how the other team play away...

I felt...Orl -4 Det was a little fat...my guess is Det is -1.5 to Orl on a neutral court(leaves Orl about -2 hosting DET)...my guess for Ind and Orl on a neutral court is EVEN / PK which translated to then saying DET would be -1.5 against IND on a neutral court....which means if you factor in the typical -3 for HC you have Ind -1.5...but the line shows +3...

This is my defintion of a bad line based soley on perception.....over adjusting...,etc..

naturally there are other factors that get me to make a play but often this is how I start...whats better is when the betting market BUYS into this bad line and pays a bad number.....

Then we have things like Ind was 1-1 vs DET last year at home ..they lost by 3 pushing to a better DET team ....as well as having O'Neal at less then 100%...they caught 8 at home and w/o O'neal also won...

I started this post talking about Det being inflated @ Char laying -4......well they are -3 here...Is Indy just -1 pt stronger then Char?? Would say clearly much more & the icing is they lost on Char....the time they were chalk before that in Philly as -4....no Webber , no AI...

So as much as think I DET will be flat.....generally I think have no RIGHT whatsoever to be favored in INDY at this time..... has either team really changed in the past week...I say no..

GL
 
Going with you on Bucks, Blazers and Hawks ml. Would try Bobcats too but hate betting on a team about to play on Thursday tv. GL
 
I see what you're saying. There's also the guys coming back from suspension, poisoning, et al...they'll be up for this one....I don't disagree.

Thanks for the input bro...think I will add this one. GL to us.
 
one thing I look at is comparing prices...if Cris has -3.5, and pinny has -3.5 (-114), then I'm figuring the spread and the ML dog is going to move in my favor.

Hence the waiting on Philly.

But philly is almost certainly going to be a play.
 
CenTexGambler said:
Here's a little 1,000 to 1 parlay I've played for a buck:

Basketball - 703 Charlotte Bobcats +500 for Game
Basketball - 721 Seattle Supersonics +400 for Game
Basketball - 723 Los Angeles Lakers +340 for Game
Basketball - 726 Los Angeles Clippers +135 for Game
Basketball - 739 Wake Forest +250 for Game

1.00 to win 1,084.70

If it loses, I guess I'll have to drink one less beer today.
Click to expand...

Where are you getting a beer for a buck?

LOL. I hope like hell you win this wager.

:smiley_acbe:
 
well I THOUGHT Philly would be a play...Not that I think Wally is Particularly Important, but he does represent the 2nd scorer for Boston, and having him back should help. I still think Wally is a wuss, and if there's pain he won't play.

But perhaps the Celtics think they better win a game like this against a team they ought to beat. In any event, the line has plummeted from 158 to 146. Still like 146, but losing 12 cents makes for an annoyed redbearde.

angry.gif


I am also looking at playing the Bullets/Nuggets UNDER.

I was even willing to pay some juice...I tried it at U222.5 -110, and Cris turned into a COCK demanding I tolerate U221.5.

I loudly declared FUCK YOU, and closed the browser...I was barely convinced to take it at 222.5 -110. Hell, I could get 221.5 for cheaper at pinny. I HATE it when the server does that...

I do think it's highly likely to go under 220, but Killa among others seems to be having an orgasm for the over...that alone gives me pause. I have enough bets today, anyway. Besides, maybe it will go back up.
 
Alright, adding:

Charlotte +635
Atlanta +270

For me this is about the equivalent of being "all in" in a poker game, LOL.

Good luck.

:cheers:
 
really? your unit is that large? Wow...

welp, GL to us tonight, bro. I'm still fishing for numbers on Philly...
 
No I'm just kidding bro. Just expressing the fact that this is a lot of plays for me considering how conservative I've been lately and also that these are mostly longshots. Actually my unit is about 2% of my total bankroll, so an oh-fer night won't kill me.:shake:
 
We won't be having an o-fer night.

I mean, I suppose it's possible, but it would REALLY surprise me...there's a lot of possibility for upset tonight - I'm just hoping it's not on the Suns...for me, anyway.
 
:bow:
redbearde said:
Portland +207

I'll take 2:1 here every damn day against Memphis.

I strongly urge a spread play on the blazers, too +6 (-105)pinny is not at all a raw deal...though I could be completely wrong and frequently I am.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Nice call RB - I took POR +6 and the ML. :cheers:

I wish my CHAR +660 would have came through, so close.
 
indeed...charlotte was very close.

Not entirely pleased with the 2-4 ML performance tonight...I really figured on going 3-3, though I never know for certain which ones will cash... I'm very very surprised that Milk, Atlanta, and Philly all lost. Out of those three, I would have said, "oh fuck yes...certainly one of those will win..."

Alas...the push on the Suns really hurts too.......after they had a 26 pt lead. Certainly better than a loss, for sure, but FUCK.
 
:3_8_14: I am just an idiot....I am sincerely happy to be right about that one...you never want to go into some long ramble and end up wrong...I just tired and not paying close attention wasnt around most of the nite playing hoops myself....funny how Philly shit the bed though ......

Are 'we' loving Dem Bobcats.....? For Thursday I mean
 
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