NBA ML dogs 12.05

[redbearde]

at the orthopaedic dr's office, so i'll update my record later.

for today:

2 units each*

Suns -9.5 (+110)
Mavs -3 (+106)

*this is not an indication of relative strength of bets....now is simply the time to bet more per wager.

for ML dogs, I'm liking the hawks this eve....though, I'm open to suggestions.

 

[redbearde]

Okay...

ML dogs: 29-42, 40.85%, +7.605 units
spreads: 20-17-3, 50%, +5.774 units

I expect the suns to run all over a tired and demoralized Kings squad. Kings have a rough time on the road...the only thing that bothers me is the extensive downtime the suns have had........I don't see much likelihood of a bounceback for the Kings....and especially if Artest is out again, I'd expect Amare to absolutely run wild......and I expect a Suns DD win.

Mavs -a few is way too short. I was surprised last night that the over missed, but the Bullets unexpectedly played some defense and the mavs managed to make the score look respectable after trailing SO much......the Nets don't match up too well against them, imo, and as long as both Vince and Kidd don't have 30pt nights, I just don't see how they can keep up...also, I see this as a huge bounceback situation for the Mavs.

Portland +525
Hawks +205
Warriors +285

I'm not even going to try defending the portland wager...it's a flyer, and I try them from time to time. I actually do like the Hawks at 2:1....maybe a 40% chance there. Warriors, well, I don't know what to make of them, really...

but if Tmac is out...and if the Warriors can hit a few more outside shots tonight...they are mroe than capable of winning this one. GSW will have to be able to get some halfcourt sets in...The rockets won't run with them because they know they cannot. The question in my mind is

Do the rockets hold the Warriors well below their average like the Spurs did? If so, then UNDER is the play....if the rockets can't stop the Warriors from scoring, then +285 is definitely the play.

ymmv.

GL tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Like your ML dogs except GS. I really think they were a team that played over there head early and also havent played many road games. So alot of perception of GS is built on what they did at home this season. It seemed lately one by one the Warriors were getting injured and missing time...Richardson is Out now , Baron Davis and Troy Murphy had some injuries past few weeks , Pietrus had a bad case of the flu...I am just not sold on them away ....GL

 

[redbearde]

I'm not either, and it's looking like Tmac WILL more than likely Play tonight.

it's okay....I still think they may contend if they manage to hit some outside shots...cus I don't really think they can contend with Yao and the Old Dude inside. If they can't hit from the outside, it'll be another brutal drubbing like last night.

WE SHALL SEE.

GL tonight, bro.

 

[macdamn]

ML dog record: 29-40 +12.65 units
Spread record: 4-2 +1.71 units

rebearde, nice! Love the Portland and Atlanta plays. I've been eyeing the Blazers ML as one of my "selective longshots", (which BTW is my version of your "flyer", LOL), but I'm going to wait to see if I can get a better number on both them and the Hawks.

I don't really have much reasoning on the play either. The Blazers have historically played the Pistons tough at Detroit, winning 3 of the last 5 at The Palace and only losing last year by 4 as 13 point dogs. So I like that aspect. The Blazers also just had a crappy 4 game homestand where they lost all 4 games. This is the first of a 6 game eastern trip for them. Getting away from home may end up being good for them, at least for the start of the trip. I think they have a legit shot at more than 5 to 1 odds.

Now the play I actually do have locked in is the Heat:

Miami +250

This is mostly a fade of the Clippers as they still aren't that impressive to me even with Kaman back. They haven't really beaten anybody recently except for Memphis and a very road weary Orlando team. So I'll take a shot with the Heat at these odds, especially since Jason Williams appears to be back. Last game out against Memphis he played 37 minutes, which is the most he's played all season. I've said before I think he's a crucial part to the Heat's success because he takes some pressure off Wade. Notice Wade only played 26 minutes in that last game, his lowest minute total of the year and a much needed breather for him. That wouldn't be possible without J Will in there.
:shake:

 

[redbearde]

good luck with the Heat bro.

spooky how similar our records are...

 

[Coppsguy]

Suns for me as well. :shake:

 

[eames]

i lean Toward DETROIT.

i have money on DALLAS.

no strong Feelings About GOLDEN-HOUSTON.

i have money on PHOENIX.

i have money on ATLANTA.

no strong Feelings About MIAMI-CLIPPERS.


Good luck Tonight Gang!!



'an_horse'

 

[redbearde]

and good luck to you, sir eames.

 

[macdamn]

Ha ha, yeah that is weird how close our records are. Well we play some of the same games but probably not more than half our plays are the same plays.

Alright locked in these two:

Portland +525
Atlanta +205

Good luck to us.

And I also just locked in Denver -10 for Wednesday. Probably the biggest chalk I've ever layed in the NBA, but just like the situation of a 3 in 4 road team coming into the altitude.

 

[redbearde]

nice call on Portland, mac!

 

[MX_259]

nice portland play, I love calling out the dogs as well, I haven't been doing so lately, but I would love to have the power to lay a 1k when trying to call em out.

 

[macdamn]

Very nice win with Portland, red! I'm loving it. Well that should be about the best spot for Portland this whole road trip, but they're a team that will pull a few +500 wins out of their ass this year, it's just a question of picking them again, LOL.

Thanks MX, are you an ML dog player? If so get your ass in this thread every day and give us your thoughts.

:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

definitely, MX...there aren't many of us, and we like all input we can muster!

I actually came back in to scream and rave about being

2 games over .500 in spreads!

fuck yeah! +10.094 units.

HAPPY.

Miami's looking a lot healthier than the Hawks are right now...

Hawklanta............:down:

 

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 30-44, 40.54%, +10.855 units
spreads: 22-17-3, 52.38%, +10.094 units

counting atlanta as a loss. if they manage to suck out, I'll modify tomorrow. but I'm really tired, and I'm goin to bed...

hope you guys made some money today!