NBA ML Dogs 11.5

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
yestereve: 2-0, +2.97 units.
overall: 10-3, +15.77 units.
had I gone with spreads instead, I would be: 10-3, +6.7 units.

Tonight I like the Lakers. As long as Kobe doesn't fuck up the cohesion, this is going to be a very dangerous team.

LA Lakers +137
 
Alot of value there... I just figure SEA has to get a W soon and the revenge angle fits well here.. probably make a small play on them ATS but +140 or so is good value.


GL and keep up the good work.
 
ML dog record: 9-7 +8.90 units
Spread record: 1-0 +0.90 units

Yesterday, 1-0 +1.35 on the Blazers

For Sunday, one unit each on:

Houston +158
LA Lakers +133
Lakers-Sonics Under 215 (-103)


Redbearde, I agree with you on the Lakers, they are looking pretty badass so far this year. They should be able to beat the Sonics again. At least it's worth a shot at these odds. I think the total is a little high. These teams just scored 230, but I expect they may come out a little flat after having faced each other two days ago.
Also on Houston. I've ridden the Hornets to both of their wins as dogs, so I feel a little bad betting against them. But Houston last year was a great road team (when T-Mac was healthy anyway). They're on b2b and may be tired, but I like the value at the odds. This game should be very tight and come down to the end.

GL today everyone.

(BTW, redbearde, hope you don't mind me posting my picks in your thread. Just thought I may as well post here since we both play ML dogs. No need to start a new thread if you've already got one going for the day.)
 
At SportsinSights the home teams are
Raptors 28%
Hawks15%
76ers 27%
Hornets 29%
Seattle 32%
Would think there is a lot of value on these home teams. GL
 
Macdamn, I don't mind at all. in fact, tomorrow I'll put both our names in the title...

tuck, I don't think sportsinsights, their numbers, or their philosophy can be trusted. ...at all.

There may be value other places than the kobes today, but I don't judge value based on where others bet.

inspekdah, you're right; it's hard to beat a team twice in a row, and the sonics are due....I just like my odds tonight. I think the Lakers are just better.

3gamblers, good health today bro.

renew orleans, look.....I've hit over 75% on a style I expect to hit 38-40%......tail if you want, but I'm very due for a bad run.

statistical significance starts at the magic #30, and while I want to continue to do well, odds will likely catch up to me...this may not be the time to play my picks. I've gotten lucky on several...

GL with your decision, but if you play something it's your risk and your reward.
 
Wait, you don't always hit 75%? I feel used...

Honestly, I don't think you are due for a bad run due to statistics falling back into place as much as I think that underdogs just might have more value early in the year before the lines are a little bit closer to accurate, IMO...helluva start though
 
thanks tru. GL to you too.

Seabass, I hope you're right, because I did well last year through february IIRC, so I'm looking forward to a good year.
GL today, bro.

:)
 
So I was looking over a few things for tomorrow, and while the Knicks suck ass, I'm thinking I may take another shot with them tomorrow when they host the Spurs. Sanant is on another B2B (both road games) and 4in5. Knicks had today off.

If the bulls are dogs at home, I will play them.

The road dogs, well, depends on what the number is, but the day on day off situation benefits no one...so far as I can tell.

So, likely playing the Knicks as big home doggies to the Spurs, and perhaps the Bulls.

thoughts, opinions, suggestions?
 
Bulls are big time favs and should be... Bucks are due for a loss and Bulls desperately need a win. Wallace and Brown should dominate them inside and we should start to find our jumper
 
im kinda scared laying some money on the knicks, after they got kicked @ss by ATL...hmm....
 
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