NBA ML Dogs 11.24

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 17-31, 35.42%, -1.265 units

I have been redefining bad luck with several games lost in the last few minutes...and even more in the 4th quarter. I am not like other cappers. If I keep losing at something, Then I stop and do something else. If this shit continues, then I'm going to stop playing ML dogs like this.

At any rate...all teams should be well rested, though I have no idea how tryptophan might affect nba players. It's been looking like the books have generally been trying to account some for the situational plays, anyway. Though they just couldn't put a line high enough for the Spurs vs Heat on Wednesday...

For America's national moronic shopping day...

Knicks @ Celtics

I won't like the Knicks very often this year, but the Celtics are another shit team, and I think the Knicks matchup well. The biggest thing I think NYK has in their favor is the energy coming off the bench. While Marbury and Francis are too busy scratching themselves to give a damn about the game, Robinson and Crawford come in and eagerly blow the fuck out of whoever they're playing. Robinson loves nothing more than to scramble his 3 foot ass to the hoop and drop it in. The young guys on the Knicks love to play team ball with a lot of solid ball movement to get a good bucket in the paint. They even put in some good minutes on defense, but that isn't so much their strength...

The Celtics live and die with Paul Pierce. If Wally is hitting his shots, then it's a slower death, but they cannot live off of Wally alone. This team is too disoriented and too often the others, even Telfair more often than I would expect, just give the ball to Paul and hope. He's good, and at this rate he may wind up hitting 30ppg as an average this season. He better hope he doesn't if he wants to win more than 20 games. Anyway, with a team leaning completely on one guy, I tend to think that team is going to hit fold. That guy can't play 48 minutes every night. The Celtics have a game at Milwaukee Saturday night, so it's not like the guy can rest tomorrow...

Line is at Celtics -4.5 right now, and I expect a reasonably good ML on it tomorrow. 160 or 170 is more than enough, imo, for this team looks to me to have at least a 40% chance to win...if not 45-50%.

By the way, as quirk of history, the word Celt has a hard C in it...it sounds like a K. Feel free to call this basketball team the sell ticks all you want, but if you are thinking of the germanic people who settled in NW Great Britain, then they are the CELTS with a K. Not with an S like the moronic announcer I heard the other nights.
 
Nice analysis redbearde! some good points here. It just proves you learn something every day. What you said about the s pronunciation vs. the K is 100% I had never thought about it. Also, I am like you in this respect as well, always refining my strat. Good luck on your plays Friday!
 
I'm also considering the Grizz hosting the Wiz........cus for whatever reason, the bullets seem to SUCK on the road.

and the Grizzlies have finally started playing better bball. I can't believe they came back so utterly against the Cavs the other night.........damn cleveland.
 
redbearde, do you bet the same amount, unit dollar amount, or do you raise and lower the dollar amount per unit on these dogs?
 
thanks Terpman. GL tomorrow.

same amount.

I vary on spread plays, tho.....not that I post those.
 
FWIW I like NYK ML in as far as your theme goes. With the situational plays you know I have been harping here on how books have caught on to what they expect us to play. SO after a few nice sized losses basicallly blindly playing situations I made some changes. I really studied & analyzed what the lines should be for the teams in these spots and if they were overadjusted I simply faded a bad line. Let me tell you almost every spot has been about 2 points fat for the favs or 2 points soft for the dogs. Might not soumd like much but in baskets thats alot...I dont think I have lost any of these plays the past week on these. Its a copycat world and the interent helps developing betting patterns. I admire your desire to stop if your not making money but stick with it abit longer....my only advice is this is tough and try as hard as possible to think outside the box... not much logical happens in sports wagering. Also I think as far as systems goes BetCrimes data regarding fav and dog runs is excellent. I looked at Wed card and saw FAT dog after fat dog....and BETs data showed an upcomin dog run...

Okay some maybe worth looking at haven't done much research yet:

ATL +134 , Cavs +124 , Wolves +178, LAL +190 , GS +153 , NJN +220

GL today maybe will chat latta!
 
Hey gentlemen, first time betting and posting on my new Q while driving, well actually my girl is driving right now so don't worry, lol. So I don't have my exact record but Wednesday was another losing day at 2-4.

Tonight:

Cleveland +126
Dallas +196
Sac +230

redbearde, sportsnut and everyone else good luck tonight
 
Yeah it's really cool to be placing bets at pinnacle while on a five hour drive, now if I could just start hitting some winners, lol.
 
you and me both.

I added

mavs+193
GSW +183
kings +225

sportsnut, thanks for the vote of confidence. I hope you're right about the balancing coming through.
 
Okay, first off, this is fucking insane.

I have 2 ML dogs so far. Sack is up as I type this, but who knows how that will turn out...

I also managed to win both the spread and the under play I had, so I'm pretty pleased overall. The dogs managed to win a few tonight.

finally.

Hope the rest of you managed some wins tonight.
 
today, 3-1, +several units. do the math if you want.
ML dogs: 20-32, 38.46%, +3.565 units

I have even raised my spread/total winning percentage to a stunning 40% with a 2-0 positive day!

Can't complain about GSW when the Sack win comes in for me....

GL tomorrow folks.
 
Back
Top