NBA ML dogs 1.23

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 59-101, 36.88%, +1.86975 units
Spreads: 88-82-10, 48.89%, +12.5556 units

Have a couple already.

Denver Nuggets -2 (-110)
Suns/Bullets Over 231 (-110)
 
Mavericks -6 (-110)

For me, recent games all point to this...including last night's Magic road win.
 
if I have time, I'll write something later...unfortunately, the wife has yet another doctor appointment...
 
Regarding Dallas...

I will repeat Orlando's last few games...

01/10/2007 at Golden State W 91 - 76 W (3) U (207) Recap
01/12/2007 at LA Lakers L 109 - 106 W (4) O (197) Recap
01/13/2007 at Phoenix L 107 - 101 W (11½) O (205) Recap
01/16/2007 at New Orleans L 84 - 78 L (-6½) U (175½) Recap
01/19/2007 vs Washington L 114 - 93 L (-3½) O (205) Recap
01/20/2007 at New Jersey L 101 - 94 L (4½) O (180) Recap
01/22/2007 at Cleveland W 90 - 79 W (4½) U (182) Recap

Washington at home was only a pseudo end to a road trip. And ye verily, Orlando lost it. Cleveland was in an utterly horrible spot. The Warriors are capable of shitting the bed against a quality defense ANY night...

So really, we're not talking about a series of quality opponents here (Hornets?!?!?!), and yet the Vaunted Magic still couldn't pull out a win until Cleveland (who is on a shit run of its own).

Meanwhile, the Mavs look like this:

01/09/2007 at Utah W 108 - 105 W (-2½) O (188) Recap
01/10/2007 vs Portland W 99 - 74 W (-12½) U (185½) Recap
01/12/2007 at Indiana W 115 - 113 L (-4) O (186½) Recap
01/14/2007 at Toronto W 97 - 96 L (-5½) U (193½) Recap
01/16/2007 vs Houston W 109 - 96 W (-7½) O (180½) Recap
01/18/2007 vs LA Lakers W 114 - 95 W (-10) O (206) Recap
01/21/2007 at Miami W 99 - 93 P (-6) U (195½) Recap

Certainly the cover at Miami was lucky.

I do expect a weak performance out of the Magic, and even though this is another road game, it's not like the Mavericks had to travel 3000 miles and 3 time zones for it.

The Mavs are 20-1 SU in their last 21 games.
Dallas is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road

on the contrarian angle...

Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Orlando

Note, the last time these two played was last March in FL, and Orlando won and covered.

:shake:

eames is my personal hero.
 
Also,

BAR likes this play. This alone is something to consider. He has gotten lucky so many times with plays that eventually we must consider that he gets lucky because he knows how to fuck the bitch properly...and he knows which bitches to try to fuck.

:bow:
 
Regarding the

Suns and Bullets.

See Killa's thread. What I would write isn't substantively different from what he discusses. I would be surprised to see the Bullets score less than 110, and I expect the Suns to win...I think both teams might well hit 120.

:shake:
 
cant argue wit the Bernard King Over red

...like it....got in on 231



GL King...i mean "cum"bearde (that still makes me laugh) j/k....ah, i mean redbearde ;)
 
That's certainly one of the better mockings of my screen name...

jumpy.gif
 
Captain Slappin...I absolutely respect that bet. I try not to have more than one bet per game, tho...not that I always follow that. If the line gets to 2:1, then I may well join you there. Hell, at +175 that's a respectable line for the Bullets at home.

:shake:
 
Well, I'm on the Hawks and the Sonics. Like the Sonics better than the Hawks. Lean towards Orlando in this spot.

GL Red
 
well smh212..........one of us will take a bath tonight...
scared.gif


malapeet, always good to see another matchbook user! GL to us on the great and mighty taurus!

also...I couldn't let this go by. I'm just hoping I didn't pounce too early.

Bullets +195 (Cris)
 
Believe, I support such a play. I have a lot of money in play already, though, and I'm not interested in such a shit game at just 20% over even money.

GOOD LUCK SIR.
 
That was an absolute fucking moose in Chicago. no reason to take a 3 there and cut it to 8 from 11 with 8 seconds left. No reason at all. All they had to do was run out the fucking clock.

damnit.
 
good thing I added those last two plays...

an_brick.gif


sure, the bulls not covering was an utterly horrible moose, but still...
 
Well...the Bucks and Clips sure did bother to score. What's up with that?

motherFUCK Medvedenko for hitting that 3 with 6 fucking seconds left. And FUCK the Bulls for missing too damn many FTs (20-29).

Still. It was a positive day, so I shouldn't complain but so much...

ML dogs: 59-102, 36.65%, +0.86975 units
Spreads: 91-84-10, 49.19%, +13.5556 units
 
watched that bulls game, tough to see Thabo miss 2FT with 51sec left, and the Sun/Wiz was fun to watch. I love league pass.
 
odd stats from that game include PJ Brown with more shots than Ben Gordon, ATL 1-9 from three and the 1 was spread killing, Joe Johnson was 12-21 from 2pt and 0-6 from three (why he kept shooting it), Pachiula gets 12boards in 27min, and I think Medavenko's three was on purpose, seeing as he plays one min and shoots a three, leading me to ask do NBA players know/care about the spread if they arent fixing the game (not saying anyone is)
 
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