redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 53-96, 35.57%, -5.995 units
spreads: 79-74-9, 48.77%, +9.957 units
I can't sleep. Might as well do some work.
As they will with others, the Suns stick out as a good play to me. Phoenix is rested, and their frenetic pace tends to set the opposition on its ear. AND remarkably, the Suns have been playing some defense this year. Line has moved from -3.5 to -5, and I don't think there's any stop to that. Now, I don't give much credence at this point to teams on a B2B, but if there's any truth to that at all, it'll show up in the 4th and possibly 3rd tomorrow for the Rockets. They sure gave up like pussies last night. If they play even 1 quarter like they did last night, the Suns will spring out to a 20 pt lead. We'll see how it goes, and I don't much believe in gifts, but I really think this line has value up to even a TD...so -4.5 still strikes me as good.
Suns -4.5 (-110) 2 units theGreek & WSEX
Jersey at Charlotte. I'm still not a fan of the Nets. I am a fan of the Bobcats. By this I mean that Charlotte is far more consistently motivated. The Nets' inane occasional interest in the games leads them to being down 18-0.....and then coming back to win the frickin game. There's no way of knowing how much hassle Kidd's wife is giving the organization now, though she has been banned from the homecourt, and they have mutual restraining orders... Still, there's no telling how the lockerroom reacts to this. On the other end, the Bobcats still don't have Knight, and Wallace and Ely are questionable, and I wouldn't expect em back. Even so, the Bobcats have performed remarkably well recently, shocking the pistons at Detroit, outlasting the Knicks 126-110, and beating philly 89-83...who pretty much managed to be worse. Then the Bucks came into Charlotte and whomped the kitties in the 2H...perhaps this falls into the Fuckup After Roadtrip thinking, but that was the philly game. If these teams play to their capacity, I would give the Nets the significant edge, but the Nets NEVER play to their full capability. I may well play this on the ML if the number keeps rising (from -3 to-3.5 already), but it'll depend on that number. I would like to see better than 150, and the early idiot at matchbook has it at 105.....pfft. Greek has em at 145.....I may get significantly more than 1.5:1. Call this a probable play, then.
Sacramento @ Toronto...not sure I'm interested in this at all. I think this number is absolutely right at -4.5, and it would not shock me to see either team cover here, though I would be somewhat surprised to see the Kings win this...they do suck ass on the road (almost as bad as the clips), and the healthy raptors seem to be coming together again. That loss to the Mavs a few days ago had to be like a pinecone up the ass...Anyway, GL to you if you try this, but I would want more than what I would get for the ML.
Knicks @ Bullets. Washington should win. The Knicks have been playing some defense, though, and if the Bullets don't shoot at least 50%, Curry et al will be doing some dominating on the boards. Again, no interest for me here.
Utah @ Detroit. Can they make the total low enough? And Should detroit be a fave or home dog here? Utah is 1-6-2 ATS in its last 9 games. Perhaps the Jizz shouldn't be favored by much. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games. Perhaps they CAN make the total low enough...Average points for these two teams work out to 198 (101.7 & 96.3 respectively).....Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home. These two teams have been woeful ATS recently...but Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit. My guess is that Utah will be a very short road fave.
Atlanta @ Minnesota. Lean to Minny. Not going to bet it. Feel free to bet and win on the T'wolves.
Chicago @ Milwaukee. I see this one like I see the Phoenix game, though the Bulls are less reliable on the road (5-12 SU). I do think the Bulls should win this convincingly, though the Bogut/Boykins relationship sure did blossum last game...gotta give this one some thought because the line might be a tad high. Not that I would play MILK....
Philly @ Memphis. Total 218. That's gone down a bucket, I think. I also think that with the defense Memphis tends to like playing, this might be a damned fine over spot. Here's one that's astounding: The total has gone OVER in 15 of Memphis's last 17 games. If this keeps going down, it'll necessitate a play. The Grizz doesn't bother playing defense anymore, and the 76ers will take advantage - they don't seem to mind running now that Cwebb has stopped knitting in the paint. Something to keep in mind...The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia, but the last time they played was twice early last year, so to be frank, that trend doesn't mean a damned fucking thing. I really like this over...will very likely play it tomorrow at matchbook. Both teams ought to be in the 110s.
LA Lakers @ San Antonio. I've mentioned this before. On the road, the Spurs are 13-6 ATS, and at home the Spurs are 9-11 ATS. AT HOME, the spurs are a bit more vulnerable than in years past. Even straight up, the spurs are 14-6 at home and 13-6 on the road. Okay, perhaps I'm insane, but I would not be shocked at all to see the Lakers actually WIN tomorrow. Lakers are 9-7 ATS away (7-9 SU). Greek has the ML at 340 right now.....I might just get 4:1 or better tomorrow. At the very least I'll be on the spread. One thing...last time these two played, the LakeShow won 106-99. The spurs are off a loss at Chicago, and the Lakers are off an OT win over the Heat. I doubt the spurs have this one circled, per se, and they've been doing this home-away-home-away-home shit ALL MONTH that's GOT to almost be as bad as a road trip. If the spurs are going to have a losing few games, right now would be the time. And if you haven't noticed, this Spurs team is not quite as tough as in years' past. The Fundamental's FT% is still dropping, the outside shooters aren't hitting at near Suns rate...and Parker isn't driving to the hoop quite as reliably as the last couple years. Spurs, in their last 10, have gone 6-4...losing to Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas, and Minnesota. Meanwhile they've beaten Atlanta, Memphis, Portland, Denver, Washington(in SAN) and Utah (in SAN). Are you impressed? We'll see how it goes, I guess. I'm hoping like hell the "Spurs don't lose 2 in a row" effect will drive this number up even further.
Cleveland @ Portland. The cavs apparently don't know how to deal with a zone defense. I couldn't believe what I saw in the 4th Q last night. If the blazers manage at least a HALF ASSED zone, they'll be in this game all night long...and not unlikely winning it. Again, I want at least 150, so we'll see how this goes. No one's shocked by Cleveland losing on the road...
Golden State @ LA Clippers. Killa likes this OVER. It was at 205, and it's at 206, so I suppose he's not the only one. Let's take stock. McLeod out. Pietrus Questionable. Foyle Questionable...and the last two missed their last game. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Clippers last 12 games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers. Both TimThomas and Livingston are Questionable. Shaun left last game with a sprained ankle. The could mean he's back this game, and it could mean he's out for a month.......It wouldn't surprise me to see a 100pt total. It would also not surprise me to see the clippers take the 4thQ off on the offensive end. Tim Thomas has an ear infection, and he might be able to go, and he might stay at home with his sore pussy. Oooo...here I see that livingston is doubtful... Anyway, all of this does not scream OVER to me. I wish Killa health and luck, but GSW on the road isn't the same 60% from the field team they are at home. I may play the Warriors on the ML. Hell, I might get almost 3:1 on this one...
To recap:
Suns -4.5 (-110) 2 units
Utah/Detroit Over 190.5 (-110)
Lakers +8.5 (-105)
Charlotte +152
Utah +132
looking at
Philly/Memphis Over - number rising. I won't take it over 220. I'm a wuss.
GSW ML 2.8:1 or better..UNDER if it gets a few points higher
Lakers ML better than 4:1 - I'm getting timid about this one...I'm a wuss
Portland ML 1.5:1 AT LEAST
Charlotte ML 1.75ish. 2:1 would be nice.
spreads: 79-74-9, 48.77%, +9.957 units
I can't sleep. Might as well do some work.
As they will with others, the Suns stick out as a good play to me. Phoenix is rested, and their frenetic pace tends to set the opposition on its ear. AND remarkably, the Suns have been playing some defense this year. Line has moved from -3.5 to -5, and I don't think there's any stop to that. Now, I don't give much credence at this point to teams on a B2B, but if there's any truth to that at all, it'll show up in the 4th and possibly 3rd tomorrow for the Rockets. They sure gave up like pussies last night. If they play even 1 quarter like they did last night, the Suns will spring out to a 20 pt lead. We'll see how it goes, and I don't much believe in gifts, but I really think this line has value up to even a TD...so -4.5 still strikes me as good.
Suns -4.5 (-110) 2 units theGreek & WSEX
Jersey at Charlotte. I'm still not a fan of the Nets. I am a fan of the Bobcats. By this I mean that Charlotte is far more consistently motivated. The Nets' inane occasional interest in the games leads them to being down 18-0.....and then coming back to win the frickin game. There's no way of knowing how much hassle Kidd's wife is giving the organization now, though she has been banned from the homecourt, and they have mutual restraining orders... Still, there's no telling how the lockerroom reacts to this. On the other end, the Bobcats still don't have Knight, and Wallace and Ely are questionable, and I wouldn't expect em back. Even so, the Bobcats have performed remarkably well recently, shocking the pistons at Detroit, outlasting the Knicks 126-110, and beating philly 89-83...who pretty much managed to be worse. Then the Bucks came into Charlotte and whomped the kitties in the 2H...perhaps this falls into the Fuckup After Roadtrip thinking, but that was the philly game. If these teams play to their capacity, I would give the Nets the significant edge, but the Nets NEVER play to their full capability. I may well play this on the ML if the number keeps rising (from -3 to-3.5 already), but it'll depend on that number. I would like to see better than 150, and the early idiot at matchbook has it at 105.....pfft. Greek has em at 145.....I may get significantly more than 1.5:1. Call this a probable play, then.
Sacramento @ Toronto...not sure I'm interested in this at all. I think this number is absolutely right at -4.5, and it would not shock me to see either team cover here, though I would be somewhat surprised to see the Kings win this...they do suck ass on the road (almost as bad as the clips), and the healthy raptors seem to be coming together again. That loss to the Mavs a few days ago had to be like a pinecone up the ass...Anyway, GL to you if you try this, but I would want more than what I would get for the ML.
Knicks @ Bullets. Washington should win. The Knicks have been playing some defense, though, and if the Bullets don't shoot at least 50%, Curry et al will be doing some dominating on the boards. Again, no interest for me here.
Utah @ Detroit. Can they make the total low enough? And Should detroit be a fave or home dog here? Utah is 1-6-2 ATS in its last 9 games. Perhaps the Jizz shouldn't be favored by much. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games. Perhaps they CAN make the total low enough...Average points for these two teams work out to 198 (101.7 & 96.3 respectively).....Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home. These two teams have been woeful ATS recently...but Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit. My guess is that Utah will be a very short road fave.
Atlanta @ Minnesota. Lean to Minny. Not going to bet it. Feel free to bet and win on the T'wolves.
Chicago @ Milwaukee. I see this one like I see the Phoenix game, though the Bulls are less reliable on the road (5-12 SU). I do think the Bulls should win this convincingly, though the Bogut/Boykins relationship sure did blossum last game...gotta give this one some thought because the line might be a tad high. Not that I would play MILK....
Philly @ Memphis. Total 218. That's gone down a bucket, I think. I also think that with the defense Memphis tends to like playing, this might be a damned fine over spot. Here's one that's astounding: The total has gone OVER in 15 of Memphis's last 17 games. If this keeps going down, it'll necessitate a play. The Grizz doesn't bother playing defense anymore, and the 76ers will take advantage - they don't seem to mind running now that Cwebb has stopped knitting in the paint. Something to keep in mind...The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia, but the last time they played was twice early last year, so to be frank, that trend doesn't mean a damned fucking thing. I really like this over...will very likely play it tomorrow at matchbook. Both teams ought to be in the 110s.
LA Lakers @ San Antonio. I've mentioned this before. On the road, the Spurs are 13-6 ATS, and at home the Spurs are 9-11 ATS. AT HOME, the spurs are a bit more vulnerable than in years past. Even straight up, the spurs are 14-6 at home and 13-6 on the road. Okay, perhaps I'm insane, but I would not be shocked at all to see the Lakers actually WIN tomorrow. Lakers are 9-7 ATS away (7-9 SU). Greek has the ML at 340 right now.....I might just get 4:1 or better tomorrow. At the very least I'll be on the spread. One thing...last time these two played, the LakeShow won 106-99. The spurs are off a loss at Chicago, and the Lakers are off an OT win over the Heat. I doubt the spurs have this one circled, per se, and they've been doing this home-away-home-away-home shit ALL MONTH that's GOT to almost be as bad as a road trip. If the spurs are going to have a losing few games, right now would be the time. And if you haven't noticed, this Spurs team is not quite as tough as in years' past. The Fundamental's FT% is still dropping, the outside shooters aren't hitting at near Suns rate...and Parker isn't driving to the hoop quite as reliably as the last couple years. Spurs, in their last 10, have gone 6-4...losing to Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas, and Minnesota. Meanwhile they've beaten Atlanta, Memphis, Portland, Denver, Washington(in SAN) and Utah (in SAN). Are you impressed? We'll see how it goes, I guess. I'm hoping like hell the "Spurs don't lose 2 in a row" effect will drive this number up even further.
Cleveland @ Portland. The cavs apparently don't know how to deal with a zone defense. I couldn't believe what I saw in the 4th Q last night. If the blazers manage at least a HALF ASSED zone, they'll be in this game all night long...and not unlikely winning it. Again, I want at least 150, so we'll see how this goes. No one's shocked by Cleveland losing on the road...
Golden State @ LA Clippers. Killa likes this OVER. It was at 205, and it's at 206, so I suppose he's not the only one. Let's take stock. McLeod out. Pietrus Questionable. Foyle Questionable...and the last two missed their last game. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Clippers last 12 games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers. Both TimThomas and Livingston are Questionable. Shaun left last game with a sprained ankle. The could mean he's back this game, and it could mean he's out for a month.......It wouldn't surprise me to see a 100pt total. It would also not surprise me to see the clippers take the 4thQ off on the offensive end. Tim Thomas has an ear infection, and he might be able to go, and he might stay at home with his sore pussy. Oooo...here I see that livingston is doubtful... Anyway, all of this does not scream OVER to me. I wish Killa health and luck, but GSW on the road isn't the same 60% from the field team they are at home. I may play the Warriors on the ML. Hell, I might get almost 3:1 on this one...
To recap:
Suns -4.5 (-110) 2 units
Utah/Detroit Over 190.5 (-110)
Lakers +8.5 (-105)
Charlotte +152
Utah +132
looking at
Philly/Memphis Over - number rising. I won't take it over 220. I'm a wuss.
GSW ML 2.8:1 or better..UNDER if it gets a few points higher
Lakers ML better than 4:1 - I'm getting timid about this one...I'm a wuss
Portland ML 1.5:1 AT LEAST
Charlotte ML 1.75ish. 2:1 would be nice.
