NBA Friday

[Satyr]

One play so far, looking at several others...

After riding the Hornets for a while, I think they come out flat in this one. A tough scheduling spot, a slight lookahead to tomorrow's game in Phoenix, coming off a great period in which they won 7 out of last 9, losing only to Portland and oddly enough, the Raptors at home. Fading them against the Clippers would have not been a good idea since they bounced back instantly, but against a hungry to get back on track Warriors...well that's another story. This is a very short number to back the home team here, and it's mostly clouded by recent Hornets surge.

In all reality I would expected a 5 here, the Warriors are a solid home team and they will run all night here. They landed on their heads against Dallas, got completely torched, Baron had an awful game, they all had a horrid shooting night, and now they're looking to bounce back. I think the Hornets lose tonight and tomorrow (whether they cover tomorrow is a different story), then possibly get back to winning habits against the Lakers and Heat, both in New Orleans. Just like the fact this is a short line due to not so brilliant performances by GSW, but they're still 19-14 overall and 4-2 in last 6. Not to mention the Hornets have a tendency to fall flat after a big winning streak, in November they won 5 straight only to lose 4 out of next 5. I think this is a similar spot for them here.

Golden State Warriors -3. (1.99) 5 units

 

[doublem9]

Goodluck!

 

[Satyr]

Thanks doublem. GL tonight. :cheers:

adding:

Cleveland - Sacramento UNDER 191 1.91 (4 units)

LeBron's big toe is hurting, he will play but it remains to be seen how fired up and how healthy he'll be. The Cavs are not an all offensive team this year, and the Kings will run with the teams that play that way and slow it down against teams that slow down, especially now since they don't have players to dictate the tempo with, with Artest and Martin out (Bibby and Rahim are out since the season started). Think this margin is a bit high.
Not a trend bettor usually but when you've got a situation like this, you don't fade those trends:
* Under is 5-0 in Kings last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 games following a S.U. win.
* Under is 6-2 in Kings last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 Friday games.
* Over is 17-7 in Kings last 24 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
* Under is 7-3 in Kings last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

# Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. Western Conference.
# Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 overall.
# Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
# Under is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
# Under is 22-8 in Cavaliers last 30 Friday games.


Not all of those trends are relevant for my capping, but I do like this play and expect a low scoring affair and as far as sides go, it should land somewhere on that number (Cavs 7-8 point win).

 

[STEED]

good luck sat

 

[divol]

best of luck Satyr!!!

 

[Marlo]

BOl Sat, tough card to decipher tonight!

 

[DuY!]

bol mate

 

[Satyr]

thanks guys, have a good one. :cheers:

 

[rod_steel]

:cheers:
​

 

[Ally]

Good luck buddy.:cheers:

 

[PURPLE & GOLD]

I seem to recall Baron normally has a huge game when he plays his former team.

 

[Basketbolists]

A small piece of my mind about the GSW...

Discount first games without SJax GSW is 19-7. All in all this might not be all that surprising, but here is a great stuff - GSW is 7-0 following a loss with SJax and 6-1 ATS in games right after the loss. And Hornets is no powerhouse for GSW to be able to handle them.

 

[Satyr]

Great find Basketbolists. Thanks. Purple & Gold, yep, he does. And he shot 2/14 from the field in Dallas, so a bounce back performance is in order. What I love here is the short line, and the fact Nawlins have had great results lately, a small letdown opportunity for them here. All we need is a 4 point win, nothing else. The only thing that worries me is that the Hornets will have inside advantage, both scoring and boarding wise.

However I expect the Warriors to step up offensively, big time. New Orleans is a great team, I've liked the Spurs for more than a decade now but New Orleans is a team I'm starting to like in recent years, but they're still not an elite one as Basketbolists mentioned. Neither are the Warriors but they should step up here, and I like betting on certain spots such as this one. We'll see, it's a standard 5 unit play, not at all more important than the under in Cleveland, which isn't looking that great as of now (98 at half). Need them to slow down a bit in the 2nd half.


:shake: GL tonight guys.

 

[Satyr]

Having said that...


adding:

3 units on GSW -3 (2.06).

A total of 8 units on the Warriors now.

 

[abcs]

Nice hit bud

 

[Satyr]

thanks to you who pointed it out. :shake:

 

[tomsey]

Hey Satyr,

I'll roll with you.... GSW -2.5 (2 units)

Good luck to us... :cheers:

Tomsey...

 

[Satyr]

Let's get that paper Tomsey :cheers: GL

 

[SF_capper]

BOL. should take this

 

[hauntEd]

gl buddy, definitely agree with you on this one, little concern about the line movement, public seems to love the opposite side :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

whoa...what a start for the Hornets...

Unless something changes ASAP, Warriors won't even come close to winning this one.

 

[Satyr]

3 pt

Hornets 6/8

Warriors 2/7

 

[Satyr]

come on Baron, take over

 

[Satyr]

On court

Vinicius
Pargo
Bowen
Jackson
West


If GSW can't trim this down to 5 with them on the floor, they never will.

 

[Satyr]

did I say trim it down?

+14 now and ball NOH

 

[Satyr]

Free throws GSW 6/11. :rolleyes:

oh come on. I'm going to bed this isn't worth it. If they lose, they lose.

 

[Marlo]

Creeping back....played GSW.. down 4 with 1.30 to go in 2nd qtr

 

[Marlo]

make that leading by 2

 

[hauntEd]

20-3 run, lol

 

[Satyr]

ahh