NBA Fri 11/3


out to lunch
YTD: 4-3-0

Didnt play last night, leaned both thats 5 straight unplayed leans of mine that won

I slept on getting some of these lines better....

Locked in:

ATLANTA -3 (-105)
BOSTON +2 (-105)
MILWAUKEE -1 (-108)
ORLANDO -5 (-110)



ATL, BOS, GDS all unpopular home teams, and Orlando is pretty close. Im a sixers fan and I think they suck and Im a buyer of Howard and the Magic. I feel like I do well fading my philly teams. Spurs are home fave night after winning SU as a road dog. What scares me is I missed pulling trigger on spurs and wiz leans, so it would figure if I play cle it would lose. Dont even bother capping that game folks, if I play cavs, spurs will cover, if I pass..cavs will win SU. Milwaukee the ever so rare unpopular road fave....worried about coming off upset win at Detroit but I like the Bucks here...Toronto a popular home dog.

Atlanta is right up my alley..unpopular fave against the Knicks who won SU as road dog in 3ot. Now people are on the knicks??? cmon now...atl is favored for a reason. Boston is scary since Det is off a loss, but I read bators comments in someones thread about getting the 'pressure' loss out of the way...its still tough to fade the Pistons after a loss but I have a hard time laying off these 'sucker/trap' plays or whatever you want to call it. I call them unpopular home teams, with the reality being the oddmakers give the home team more credit than the general perception does....just like orl, cha and utah the other night, which I think goes 3-0 if wallace doesnt go down. Id be tempted to play Charlotte but dont like going against Memphis at home after losing like that...if they had won it would be different. Im also at least keeping an eye on the 230/100-100 game totals, and might play both unders even though I want to wait a while before playing ball, new look teams, new rules etc etc.

Kings and Sonics a couple road dogs that Im leaning, but those are the least likely plays on the list (so bet them NOW!!!)

Great thoughts Lunch. One of my favorites to read. Glad to see your thoughts over here.
Thanks, killa, BC are the first 3 Im looking for over offense to anyone else

Lets top tick another line:

GDS -9 (-105)
Lunch, fortunately I kept my complete season records for last years games on paper, so I'm presently going through and recreating all the 230/100-100 stats.

I can tell you NYK and ATL were involved in 2 x 230/100 games in 05-06, and I'm a bit wary about ATL coming off a 75 total, and playing their home opener here. If that goes Under, I'd imagine it wont be by much (190s?). One of those situations where either total result wouldnt be a suprise. I'd lean more to the 2nd game being Under but I don't expect to play it.
BC I agree with that...I also remember atl/nyk had a couple chances...neither are teams I consider under teams. I will probably pass there. The other one is tempting, but Im wary of memphis not being so under oriented this year with a diff look. If I play either, it will be smaller than any posted play...and therefore wont be posted
Also, I didnt track the stats like you did, but between some saved copies of posts and emails, I have some stuff to go through and maybe I can find the exact 230 stats....I have it somewhere..just have to find it.
Lunchbox said:
Also, I didnt track the stats like you did, but between some saved copies of posts and emails, I have some stuff to go through and maybe I can find the exact 230 stats....I have it somewhere..just have to find it.

Lunch, its cool. I'm 70% way through recreating them as I post. I'll be ordering up a thread for them as soon as I'm done.
Hawks are without a doubt my fave play of the lets make it a double...2 separate plays

ATL -2 (-115)
Lots of plays tonight....makes me nervous as I had a long list wed night and played tight and saw all my road dog leans hit. Spurs were awful on b2b last year, and this also fits the angle of fading a home fave who won the night before as a road dog....spurs got their revenge on mavs last night and this is the complete opposite of them home after a loss with rest...which is when they usually bring their best D efforts. I woulda liked this much more if Cavs had lost the other night...maybe this is similar score with similar spread.

CAVS +5.5 (-110)
Thought I was going to pass...but Bulls 3rd game in 4 nights and its the top consensus play on the board.

KINGS +5.5 (-110)

Lots of plays...yikes!!! Nothing looks really good or really bad so hopefully at least a few go my way
Lunch, a little late now but...

Teams playing 1st, on the road, off an OT 230/100-100 game last season, were 5-0 to Under.

The Knicks fitted perfectly.
BC...yeah we missed that one, I just couldnt do it with those teams and atl coming off such a low point. ATL has been my favorite over team the last couple years...and knicks at home were a goldmine for overs for a stretch last year. Have a small play on the mem under...a little smaller than these normal plays

Thankfully ATL held on, coulda been a debacle if they lost...hopefully cavs hold on and Im 3-3 with Kings and Warriors pending...and now the sonics. I like this better with Kobe could take them a game to get him back in the flow, and seattle coming off embarrassing home loss to portland

SONICS +6 (-105)