NBA Finals

smh212

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
Playoffs: 23-20 +6.89 units

Got lucky as hell with my Durant prop bet in game 6, as he failed to score in OT, allowing me to cash my under 32.5 points.

On to the finals. Should be a good one IMO, as the two best teams from each conference are represented.

Game 1:

HEAT +3.5 (2) and HEAT +145 (.5)
My line: Spurs -2 194

Bet a little more on the Heat as I expected the line to drop once it is revealed that Parker's ankle is good to go. If I'm correct, I will buy back some on the Spurs and reduce my bet to my normal unit size. I believe the Heat will win at least 1 of the first 2, and the added rest they have, has me favoring game 1.

I for one hate the finals format, as I believe it provides less betting opportunities for traditional bets, due to fewer change of venue, however, there should be some value on the prop market, and the totals market, which I will comment on later as I gather information.

Good Luck.

:shake:
 
I for one hate the finals format, as I believe it provides less betting opportunities for traditional bets, due to fewer change of venue
Click to expand...


2-2-1-1-1 this year. First time since the 80's.
 
I had forgot as well till a few weeks ago...The idea was so outdated...yes in the 80 but think it is much better although my boys swept middle 3 both home and road while it was in place lol.
 
NBA Finals Numbers/Trends/Etc

Since the 2003-2004 season, there have been 72 games where the 2 seed played against the 1 seed. In those games:

  • The 2 seed has a straight up record of 41-31-0 (The 1 seed is 31-41-0 straight up)
  • The 2 seed has a record against the spread of 46-26-0 (The 1 seed is 26-46-0 ATS)
  • The game went over the total 33 times, under 38 times, and pushed 1 times


Player
Chris Bosh
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Michael Beasley
Mario Chalmers
Ray Allen
Chris Andersen
Norris Cole
Greg Oden
Shane Battier

<thead>
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"] Pts/Gm
[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Rebs/Gm
[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Ast/Gm[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]vsSAS[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] vsSAS
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]All[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vsSAS[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif[/TH]

</thead> <tbody>
[TD="align: right"]24.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 6.5
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.2%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]82.5%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]18.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-31.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 6.9
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]12.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-36.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -30.5%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]11.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]52.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]67.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38.1%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]10.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -47.6%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]8.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-15.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -31.5%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]112.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-29.2%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-46.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-34.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-13.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

</tbody>

Bosh seems to be a good prop candidate for a PPG/Prop. Makes sense, especially if the Spurs roll out Matt Bonner again. Wade and Lebron look to make interesting UNDER PPG/Props, but before betting, prior games have to be examined for lineups, B2B, minutes played, etc. Will be interested in some Norris Cole props especially w/ Parker not 100%.

Player
Tim Duncan
Boris Diaw
Tony Parker
Kawhi Leonard
Marco Belinelli
Jeff Ayres
Tiago Splitter
Patrick Mills
Danny Green
Manu Ginobili
Cory Joseph
Aron Baynes
Matt Bonner

<thead>
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Pts/Gm[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Reb/Gm[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Ast/Gm[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]vsMIA[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vsMIA[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vs MIA
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]All[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif[/TH]

</thead> <tbody>
[TD="align: right"]23.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 15.4
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 49.4%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.0
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-26.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 2.8
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-63.8%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]15.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]67.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43.2%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]14.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.8
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-16.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-56.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.8%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]11.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-14.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-21.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]10.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]50.8%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 141.7%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]171.9%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-13.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-68.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]144.4%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-37.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]201.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.8%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-34.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-10.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]116.8%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-64.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-83.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-41.1%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-36.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-29.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-33.3%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]88.2%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-44.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

</tbody>

Boris Diaw who comes in on a roll, looks like an interesting prop candidate, but again, the individual games need to be pulled up, and situations need examining before pulling the trigger. The ever explosive Corey Joseph, drops to 3.0 ppg down from his season avg of 4.7. Obviously the guy sticking out is the Italian bald spot man. 4.5 ppg vs Miami. Something is up there, which will likely be found upon closer inspection of game logs.
 
smh212 said:
BAR -

Thanks! Jesus man, I had no idea. Much better than 2-3-2 IMO.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I never understood the 2-3-2 format for the simple reason that it seemed to be an advantage for the team who didn't have "home court advantage." If you could win one of the first 2 on the road, you then had 3 home games to close out the series. The team with home court advantage should never be in a situation where they could possibly only play 2 games at home in a 7 game series.
 
Lareux said:
Yeah, I never understood the 2-3-2 format for the simple reason that it seemed to be an advantage for the team who didn't have "home court advantage." If you could win one of the first 2 on the road, you then had 3 home games to close out the series. The team with home court advantage should never be in a situation where they could possibly only play 2 games at home in a 7 game series.
Click to expand...


It was all about the 1980's man when it was pretty much LA every year and Philly/Boston...as opponent...all about travel.
 
B.A.R. said:
It was all about the 1980's man when it was pretty much LA every year and Philly/Boston...as opponent...all about travel.
Click to expand...

Yep, you're right, it was all about travel. That still doesn't change why I think it was almost unfair to the team with home court advantage, but travel was the reason they changed the format. In my post I forgot to mention another reason I thought it was unfair (as did many in the NBA)...if the series was tied 2-2, the team w/o home court advantage hosted Game 5. Game 5 is a very pivotal game in a 2-2 series, and the team with the better record was penalized and had to play Game 5 on the road. Thanks Zeus they changed it back. It was changed to 2-3-2 in 1985.

:shake:
 
Well, as game time approaches I'm holding two tickets that I don't want. I really misread the market. I like the Heat at +5, but I'm in for about 1.25 more than I would have liked to risk on game with the Heat, and I got bad numbers. Fucking amateur hour. Even if I win, the thrill in the capping, and getting the price, and got a bad price.

I like this Bosh prop, and my numbers above support it:

BOSH OVER 22 pts+rebs (1)
 
Game 3

UNDER 197.5 (1.25)
My line: 194.5

The pace of the first two games, were both matched for an under result. If not for the 34 pt 4th quarter by the Spurs in game 1, we likely would have seen an under. Both teams get after it on defense, and barring a high % 3 pt shooting night from either side, I'm calling for both teams to be in the low to mid 90's.

GL
 
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