NBA Finals Plays...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Regular season: 71-51 (+22.01)

Playoffs: 18-16-1 (+3.05)

Having an up and down playoffs.

Dropping the first play of the Finals early.

Game 1...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -5.5 (4.15 to win 4)

Will break it down later.

:popcorn:
 
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Thanks Cog.

Simple breakdown.

Basically a K.I.S.S. play.

Numbers for the Dubs exceed the 'champion' model.

Taking the 'better' team in Game 1 of the Finals rarely loses.
 
Good luck mate!
Not sure I agree on the play, but hope you have good Finals to wrap the season.
 
can i get your thoughts on who you think wins and in how many? just sum it up, like gsw in 6 or so.

Thanks!
 
wizardofodd said:
can i get your thoughts on who you think wins and in how many? just sum it up, like gsw in 6 or so.

Thanks!
Click to expand...

Going by the numbers, teams similar to the Dubs are 17-0 in Finals series.

LeBron good enough to win 2 games, pro-Cleveland refs a concern.

Would say Dubs in 6 but Dubs by anything less wouldn't surprise me.

Both team's playoff numbers are impressive but the Cavs have had the easier path.

Dubs have faced a member of the All-NBA first team in the 3 rounds to get here (AD, Marc Gasol and Harden). Cavs haven't faced anyone worth much bar a 70% Rose.

Cavs a predominantly iso-team whereas the Dubs like to move the ball, which has always frustrated LeBron teams.

Unlikely the Cavs' role-players produce at the same high level they did in the ECF's.

To sum it up, Dubs in 6 or less. Cavs winning this series will be a monumental upset, imo but anything is possible in this league.
 
More sporadic thoughts etc.

Thompson, Shump, JR and a hobbled Irving < Wade, Bosh and Ray.

This season's Cavs minus Love is worse than what he took to the Finals last season and slightly better than what he took to the Finals in 2007, which in someways is an ode to just how good LeBron is.

This Cavs team does have a ton of heart though, which is what the Mavs had in 2011 when they beat a much better Heat team in the Finals.

Lot of doubters on the Dubs because they're a jump shooting team but they're one of the best, if not the best jump shooting teams to make the Finals.

Team with the better win-percentage is 10-2 SU and ATS in Game 1 of the Finals past 12 seasons.

More I look, the more I love Golden State to win it all.
 
GL and thanks for your thoughts.

How bad does Lebron want to bring some type of championship to the city of Cleveland is the question. That guy has the will, determination to get it. If he does get Cavs the win, it will be his greatest ring yet. Hard for me to pass up on a 2-1 dog which included Lebron. Still got 2 days to think about it.

:cheers3:
 
wizardofodd said:
GL and thanks for your thoughts.

How bad does Lebron want to bring some type of championship to the city of Cleveland is the question. That guy has the will, determination to get it. If he does get Cavs the win, it will be his greatest ring yet. Hard for me to pass up on a 2-1 dog which included Lebron. Still got 2 days to think about it.

:cheers3:
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Thanks Wiz.

Probably about as much as Curry wants to bring a 'ship to Oakland. One player isn't enough in the Finals (Iverson in '01 and more recently LeBron in '07).

Would be his greatest ring, no doubt and the league may step in to assist (which would be their biggest assist to date) but going by the numbers historically and otherwise it won't happen.

Is going to be hard for many to pass up the current odds on offer for the league's best player
 
Thanks Hugh but wouldn't call it gold, that's a little too kind.

Strength of schedule is glaring considering how bad the East is this season.

If you breakdown the 8 teams that made the playoffs out East, it's fucking disgusting.

To the Cavs credit they were decent against the West but still, it's hard to see them winning more than 1 game on the Dubs floor.

Dubs peak-flow meter up there/slightly better than the '85 Celtics, '08 Lakers and just below the mid-nineties Bulls (more '96 than the 'best team ever' '95 squad).
 
In the last 17 openers of the NBA Finals, the home team has gone 14-3 SU (with 12 of the 14 wins decided by eight points or more).
 
Thanks P2W.

Few trends, fwiw...

Dubs 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) as a home fave of 8 or less this season.

Cavs 2-7 SU (2-7 ATS) as a dog of 4 or more this season.

LeBron 1-4 SU (1-4 ATS) as a dog of 5 or more in the Finals.
 
Schrute said:
Great year Em

Any thoughts on the over? LBJ can only shut down 1 guy
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Thanks Schrute.

Long layoff may affect the fluidity of the scoring in Game 1. Would lean Under.

Going back 12 years this is only the 2nd time the total in Game 1 of the Finals has been over 200 (last time was in 2009, Lakers v Magic which went under the closing total by 30 points).
 
A Crawford, either Dan or Joey has been deployed the last 4 times LeBron has lost a Game 1 in the playoffs.

The result for LeBron in Game 2 is 4-0 SU and ATS (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014).

Obviously this time around he doesn't have a Wade, Bosh or Pat Riley to assist.

Cavs minus Love and Kyrie are worse than the 2007 model, imo and adding to that is the fact LeBron has much more miles on the clock.

Not sure the league can provide enough help in this instance. May just need to lay down and let it happen.

Right now for LeBron it's like bringing a knife to a gun fight due to all the injuries.
 
Game 2...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

The play...

Warriors -5.5 -165 (4 to win 2.44)

Bought points to keep in touch with the opener given my respect for the line this time of year, doubt it matters though.

Same risk as Game 1 for less reward.

Afraid it's 2007 all over again for the Cavs. Refs could possibly save the spread, albeit barely but not LeBron and Cleveland.

:popcorn:
 
Haven't liked the Warriors in game 2's last couple of series but think the trend ends tonight. Let's get it.
 
We got some real bad refs, Spek. Dubs did manage to beat the refs in Game 1 on sheer talent though.

League figure they take Green and/or Klay out in order to extend.

Scenario is Dubs cover or Cavs win straight-up. No real middle ground i.e Dubs win but fail to cover, if you look at past situations.

On paper this is a healthy Dubs win but the NBA is what it is.

May throw a little on a James points/Cavs win prop as a little back-up plan in-case the league gets it's way.
 
lol @ emkee. No possible way Cavs cover without the help of the refs.
 
You guys need to give the whining about refs a break once in a while. Sound like a bunch of women.
 
You need to understand refs in the NBA to profit. And it's no secret the refs been helping baby bron bron out all the way back to his rookie year.
 
Thanks VK.

Ton of positive numbers for LeBron and the situation somewhat calls for a play on the Cavs but minus Kyrie and Love this has to be the worst roster LBJ has had in this spot.

It's basically a bunch of cast-offs/scrubs surrounding the league's best player vs one of the best teams the league has since the mid-nineties Bulls.

Bet LeBron and the Heat in this spot last Finals and won but he had Wade and Bosh, 2 proven All-Stars. This time around he has Delly and JR Smith.

Will not hedge regardless of the refs and LeBron's solid Game 2 stats.

Go Dubs.
 
Kyrie played 43 mins in Game 1, had 23 points and made numerous key 'athletic' plays on defense. I say 'athletic' because Delly is not.

The shitty Hawks couldn't exploit his absence but the Dubs should.

Says a lot when your star gets 40+ and you still lose and fail to cover i.e Game 1.
 
Inspekdah said:
You need to understand refs in the NBA to profit. And it's no secret the refs been helping baby bron bron out all the way back to his rookie year.
Click to expand...

Translation: You need to have something to blame for your losing bets. Take your tinfoil hat off and enjoy the game once in a while, Jesus Christ.
 
Before you make an excuse for the Cavs covering the spread or (gasp) winning the game, because you don't know whether they will or won't or why or why not, how about you at least wait for a call to not go your way? Should have a bunch in the first half, it's a fast game and tough to officiate.

And I thought whining about the refs after a bad call was kind of weak. emkee, spek, nbafan take it to the level of preemptive strike.
 
If you'd bet the NBA consistently enough over 15+ years you would understand Tip.

Refs in this league are far more influential than other professional sports.

A missed or wrong call by the men paid to officiate is more often the difference between winning and losing a bet.
 
Bad read last night, knew prior what I was up against - refs and LeBron's gawdy Game 2 numbers off a loss. Too stubborn.

Game 3 play is basically set in stone.

21-17-1 (+8.35)

Including 1 in-game play (Dubs -5.5 +180 for a unit, posted in the in-game thread) and 1 pre-game back-up play from last night (LeBron 34+points and Cavs to win +600 for a half unit posted in the in-game thread and mentioned above (post 25).
 
tipyerbartender said:
Before you make an excuse for the Cavs covering the spread or (gasp) winning the game, because you don't know whether they will or won't or why or why not, how about you at least wait for a call to not go your way? Should have a bunch in the first half, it's a fast game and tough to officiate.

And I thought whining about the refs after a bad call was kind of weak. emkee, spek, nbafan take it to the level of preemptive strike.
Click to expand...

emkee said:
If you'd bet the NBA consistently enough over 15+ years you would understand Tip.

Refs in this league are far more influential than other professional sports.

A missed or wrong call by the men paid to officiate is more often the difference between winning and losing a bet.
Click to expand...



Yeah, tip, love ya buddy but your out of your element here when it comes to NBA/officiating in general.
 
We're talking about one game in which the officials favored Golden State if anyone. If they called ticky-tack, Cavs would have coasted, they were the aggressors. I can admit I don't watch the league all year long, you guys can admit you were wrong about the game. Not even the outcome. You were were wrong about the refs in this one game.
 
tipyerbartender said:
We're talking about one game in which the officials favored Golden State if anyone. If they called ticky-tack, Cavs would have coasted, they were the aggressors. I can admit I don't watch the league all year long, you guys can admit you were wrong about the game. Not even the outcome. You were were wrong about the refs in this one game.
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I wasn't wrong at all. I saw that officiating crew and crossed off any potential plays that involved the Dubs. I immediately added a prop bet on LeBron FT's which won easily.

From a purely statistical standpoint....Cle shot 15 more FT's and were called for 7 less fouls. On the road.:idea:



I wasn't talking about this game. You just became an NBA fan when it looks like Cleveland may get their first ship in 50-60 years. You have no concept of how the NBA works wrt to officials. This isn't something new at all, it dates back to when David Stern 'took control' of the league and made it his little puppet. That is all. Just trying to explain the bigger scope.

Now, enough of derailing em's thead...
 
BAR, I assume you've watched some hoops. If you feed a big Russian two feet from the basket, or if you're the best player on earth backing up a defender, you're going to draw 15 more free throws than if you shoot jump shots.

I was watching the NBA when you were eating boogers.
 
I'm well aware and would expect Cle to have more FT's etc. There was bad no-calls both ways fwiw.

Like I said, this isn't about last night whatsoever but you and Divol seem to think that refs have no influence on games and you guys are absolutely INCORRECT.
 
Just frosts me that the "seasoned players" here at CTG can't say they didn't see it coming. Refs had zero to do with the outcome. It would be like me saying before the game that the Cavs would win outright, and it would be all Perkins, all night. Then celebrating my outright win, and sweeping the Perkins comment under the rug.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm well aware and would expect Cle to have more FT's etc. There was bad no-calls both ways fwiw.

Like I said, this isn't about last night whatsoever but you and Divol seem to think that refs have no influence on games and you guys are absolutely INCORRECT.
Click to expand...

They had no influence on the outcome of THAT game.
 
As I said before, if you bet the Cavs because of the refs, congratulations. You were wrong, but lucky. I'll always take lucky over good.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Just frosts me that the "seasoned players" here at CTG can't say they didn't see it coming. Refs had zero to do with the outcome. It would be like me saying before the game that the Cavs would win outright, and it would be all Perkins, all night. Then celebrating my outright win, and sweeping the Perkins comment under the rug.
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Thanks for hijacking the thread Tip. You're forgiven because I appreciate passion about one's city.

Certain refs allow certain players the opportunity to play a certain way which directly influences the potential outcome. The Stern model which the NBA currently operates under is superstar driven, the superstars sell the merchandise, build the revenue and are privy to calls because you can't have superstars without success.

Could digress further about league officiating and breakdown last night's game but what's the point.
 
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Game 3...

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers

The play...

Warriors ML -115 (4.6 to win 4)

Taking a risk without seeing the refs but it's another surefire K.I.S.S. play and the line is moving.

Played with confidence either way.

Same modus operandi as Game 1.

Scheduling situation in the Dubs favor as well, not too mention LeBron's back to back massive minutes on a day's rest.

:shake:
 
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Warriors would have benefited from ticky tack. That was a rugby game and it benefited one side. Refs are masters of their craft though and if you turned on the game at the end you would think Lebron got hacked. And he did. Well after he traveled. Warriors went up 20-12 and the whistles on the perimeter were non existent and Delly was able to grab and bully. It'd be impossible for me to see this too tip if I was a fan of one team but there's a reason Foster is 12-1 for away teams. It's not a coincidence. Flip a coin 13 times and let me know how many times a year if you do it all day long you get 12 outcomes one way.
 
Inspekdah said:
Warriors would have benefited from ticky tack. That was a rugby game and it benefited one side. Refs are masters of their craft though and if you turned on the game at the end you would think Lebron got hacked. And he did. Well after he traveled. Warriors went up 20-12 and the whistles on the perimeter were non existent and Delly was able to grab and bully. It'd be impossible for me to see this too tip if I was a fan of one team but there's a reason Foster is 12-1 for away teams. It's not a coincidence. Flip a coin 13 times and let me know how many times a year if you do it all day long you get 12 outcomes one way.
Click to expand...

Refs let the Cavs drag the game down to an ugly level and allowed them to dictate the pace. If Curry had an average night instead of a real bad one we'd be talking sweep.

Shit should change for the better in Game 3. Waiting on refs.
 
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