Stew Baker
Pretty much a regular
The general expectancy, for teams in games after 3+ days off, is for the offenses, not being in "game shape", to not be sharp in the 1st qtr. The Pacers however seem to have an entirely different tendency, scoring 33, 36, and 34 pts. (last two on the road) in the 1st qtrs. of their three gm. 1s of these playoffs, having 5 ,4, and 7 days rest respectively. Those first 2 games,, vs, Milw., and Cle., were easy 1st Qtr. covers, the third, vs. the Knicks, was a 1/2 pt. ATS miss. Indiana has 4 days off before Gm. 1 of the finals. Similarly, the Pacers have averaged 32.0 pts. during the reg. season in the opening qtr. with extended rest, over 5 gms., including a 31.5 average over 2 road games.
OKC will have 4 days off before Gm. 1. So let's see how OKC has done defensively in the Ist qtr. this postseason with extended rest. In Gm. 1 Round 1, with 6 days off, the OKC "D" at home held Mem. to 20 pts., although I'm not putting a lot of stock in that outcome since the Grizzlies were coming off a short turnaround after surviving their 2 game play-in round, and may have been flat; besides, that was a total mismatch anyway. The other extended rest opportunity the Thunder had in the postseason I think is a better guage. This was Gm. 1 Rd. 2 against Denver, also at home, and with 8 days rest; they held Denver to 26, in a 27-26 1st qtr. Comparing Denver to Indiana, the Pacer's OVERALL 1st qtr. road scoring avg. in these playoffs is virtually equal to Denver's (25.9 vs. 26.0), but in analyzing Thurday's 1st qtr., the Pacers increased 1st qtr. scoring with extended rest needs to be added in.
Let's see how the the finals contenders have done in their 2 reg. season matchups; in both those games, each team was operating on normal type rest. Indiana's 1st qtrs. were 29-19 (home) and 27-29 (road, as a 2.5 pt. 1st qtr. dog). The Pacers eclipsed Thursday's 1st qtr. TT in both cases.
The TT for Indiana in Thursday's opener is set at 26.5. I'm seeing the over as the right side here. Indiana's postseason 1st qtr. offensive prowess with extended rest is the key here, and I'm seeing it as strong enough to override OKC's strong home playoff 1st qtr. scoring allowed numbers. As a matter of fact, this latter trend is giving us extra value. I don't see the Thunder holding the Pacers under 27 in the 1st qtr, here., and am making the over 26.5 a large play.
The play: Ind. 1st qtr. TT over 26.5 -110 (BetOnline) LARGE
Addl. comments: I see some value in Ind. 1si qtr. +3, took +3 -116. BetOnline had a +183 on Pacers 1st qtr, ML; that price is an autotake for me for a qtr. for a 2.5 - 3 pt. dog that I like. +177 is available there now (at time of posting); that's still a good price.
OKC will have 4 days off before Gm. 1. So let's see how OKC has done defensively in the Ist qtr. this postseason with extended rest. In Gm. 1 Round 1, with 6 days off, the OKC "D" at home held Mem. to 20 pts., although I'm not putting a lot of stock in that outcome since the Grizzlies were coming off a short turnaround after surviving their 2 game play-in round, and may have been flat; besides, that was a total mismatch anyway. The other extended rest opportunity the Thunder had in the postseason I think is a better guage. This was Gm. 1 Rd. 2 against Denver, also at home, and with 8 days rest; they held Denver to 26, in a 27-26 1st qtr. Comparing Denver to Indiana, the Pacer's OVERALL 1st qtr. road scoring avg. in these playoffs is virtually equal to Denver's (25.9 vs. 26.0), but in analyzing Thurday's 1st qtr., the Pacers increased 1st qtr. scoring with extended rest needs to be added in.
Let's see how the the finals contenders have done in their 2 reg. season matchups; in both those games, each team was operating on normal type rest. Indiana's 1st qtrs. were 29-19 (home) and 27-29 (road, as a 2.5 pt. 1st qtr. dog). The Pacers eclipsed Thursday's 1st qtr. TT in both cases.
The TT for Indiana in Thursday's opener is set at 26.5. I'm seeing the over as the right side here. Indiana's postseason 1st qtr. offensive prowess with extended rest is the key here, and I'm seeing it as strong enough to override OKC's strong home playoff 1st qtr. scoring allowed numbers. As a matter of fact, this latter trend is giving us extra value. I don't see the Thunder holding the Pacers under 27 in the 1st qtr, here., and am making the over 26.5 a large play.
The play: Ind. 1st qtr. TT over 26.5 -110 (BetOnline) LARGE
Addl. comments: I see some value in Ind. 1si qtr. +3, took +3 -116. BetOnline had a +183 on Pacers 1st qtr, ML; that price is an autotake for me for a qtr. for a 2.5 - 3 pt. dog that I like. +177 is available there now (at time of posting); that's still a good price.
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