NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2023 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records―all results based off opening lines―starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows (please note: due to the fact that 2020's playoff games all took place at a single venue which thereby eliminated home court advantage and thus the effect such would otherwise normally exert on the totals outcome of any given elimination game, I have excluded those results from the data base that follows below)...


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 198-162-5

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _81-89-2
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 117-73-3


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 110-84-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 58-48-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 52-36-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 88-78-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 23-41-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 65-37-2

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 35.57%), a time when both teams already have a series win under their belts and have both won at least 2 games in the current series.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

22-23 Elimination game results


Round 1

PHI@BRK - Game 4: Under
DEN@MIN - Game 4: Under
ATL@BOS - Game 5: Over
MIN@DEN - Game 5: Under
LAC@PHX - Game 5: Over
NYK@CLE - Game 5: Push
LAL@MEM - Game 5: Under
MIA@MIL - Game 5: Over
BOS@ATL - Game 6: Over
SAC@GDS - Game 6: Under
MEM@LAL - Game 6: Under
GDS@SAC - Game 7: Under

Round 2

MIA@NYK - Game 5: Over
LAL@GDS - Game 5: Over
BOS@PHI - Game 6: Under
DEN@PHX - Game 6: Under
NYK@MIA - Game 6: Under
GDS@LAL - Game 6: Under
PHI@BOS - Game 7: Under

Round 3

DEN@LAL - Game 4: Under
BOS@MIA - Game 4: Over
MIA@BOS - Game 5: Under
BOS@MIA - Game 6: Under
MIA@BOS - Game 7: Under



Round 4

MIA@DEN - Game 5: Under

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks bc

 

[BetCrimes1984]

PHI@BRK - Game 4: Under
DEN@MIN - Game 4: Under
ATL@BOS - Game 5: Over
MIN@DEN - Game 5: Under
LAC@PHX - Game 5: Over
NYK@CLE - Game 5: Push
LAL@MEM - Game 5: Under
MIA@MIL - Game 5: Over
BOS@ATL - Game 6: Over
SAC@GDS - Game 6: Under
MEM@LAL - Game 6: Under

11 Elimination games in:

Western Conf. = U/O 5-1
Eastern Conf. = U/O 1-3-1

Early days/small stat pool = no great portent for the future, just an obvious fault-line I thought I'd point out.

 

[B.A.R.]

2h went under by the hook tonight.

 

[emg2525]

Most likely an auto play for me today on the under. I’ve watched this trend for many years on this forum, and hoping today is a good spot. Anyone with any thoughts on the total?

 

[eggman]

A great night to take the overs right?

 

[cogenman]

Warriors/Lakers number has been dropping pretty good last few games.

 

[DeadEyeDuckie]

Didn’t Warriors/Lakers go over in game 6? Or was that based on an opening line and it dropped that much?

 

[KJ]

Didn’t Warriors/Lakers go over in game 6? Or was that based on an opening line and it dropped that much?

I don't think this gets updated during the current season

It's meant for historical performance

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Didn’t Warriors/Lakers go over in game 6? Or was that based on an opening line and it dropped that much?

Opening line per covers was 223.5

This isn't the page I used to get the line movement, but that link is now gone. The only graph they have left that represents where the line went is this one:

 

[cogenman]

That was a nice 4Q for the under to hit today.

 

[KJ]

That was a nice 4Q for the under to hit today.

Thing is games 4 and 5 elimination games are very good for overs according to the stats above

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thing is games 4 and 5 elimination games are very good for overs according to the stats above

Yes. Bad beat for those who played the trends. I saw the last 3 mins, and while the Over should've pissed in easily I could tell the way they were (not) playing that something was up. What that result did do was continue the trend for WC games to go Under, now 9-2 for all elimination games.

 

[pressitup]

Yes. Bad beat for those who played the trends. I saw the last 3 mins, and while the Over should've pissed in easily I could tell the way they were (not) playing that something was up. What that result did do was continue the trend for WC games to go Under, now 9-2 for all elimination games.

gold this yr

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Great stuff thanks

 

[B.A.R.]

I'm sure BC will chime in shortly with his thread.

For you newcomers, this is GREAT stuff.