NBA Discussion Thread for Friday 12/8
- Thread starter Killa
- Start date
Inspekdah
My man, Novak Djokovic!
Magic look good if Stons are drained tonight... hopefully Stons win this game by a few and the big 3 see 40 mins plus.
Kind of like the OVER in Den. I know they didnt get there last game... but Miami will not force a half court game without Shaq... I expect Wade and Melo to have some fun in this one and the total should easily fly over.
Rockets should rebound on the road after a loss to MINNY. I expect a strong effort and 5 is not a fishy # IMO.
Kind of like the OVER in Den. I know they didnt get there last game... but Miami will not force a half court game without Shaq... I expect Wade and Melo to have some fun in this one and the total should easily fly over.
Rockets should rebound on the road after a loss to MINNY. I expect a strong effort and 5 is not a fishy # IMO.
S
scourge
Guest
Blazers +8.5 @Indy
Hawks +9 @LA
Jizz +1 @Minny
Heat +8.5 @Denver depending on how the game tonight in Sactown goes
Hawks +9 @LA
Jizz +1 @Minny
Heat +8.5 @Denver depending on how the game tonight in Sactown goes
Alright......
Hornets @ Seattle
Lets go under the assumption the Hornets will be w/o their trip Peja , BJ and West & Seatlle will be w/o Mr.Shuttleswoth....Depending on where the put this total out I would probably like the OVER. I think the Hornets guys are getting used to playing w/o there stars and becoming more assertive and confident on offense....they just did win in LAL ...while Ray is a great shooter it also takes away that need to feed the star and let your second tier stars make some plays..
Atl @ LAL
just a tough game I have no feel for..Hawks always look attractive as dogs but teams on the other end of the spectrum.....LAL upset at home and ATL upset @ Denver...
The Rematch Miami @ Denver
Really with Nuggets off ahome loss & Miami on a road trip B to B it seems logical to play Denver.....I just dont trust these guys and I have been waiting for them to fold for awhile now so I cant touch a side...all Denevr home games look like attractive overs but maybe the 1st H over or 1st Q is best...
Mem @ Milw
A dog I really like here...Bucks after winning in OT by 8 against Port are now 2-6 ATS as chalk and we know they were 7.5 that last game...Memphis is gritty. They have players injured but all season lomg guys have stepped up...I know mILW has played better but there really arent many teams I see them better then ....I see -3 as a fair number...
Tor @ Chi
Well Bulls are HOT 6 straight..5-0-1 ATS...& they have won 10 straight versus Tor....need I go further....
Utah @ Minny
Not sure if I ride the Minny train AGAIN.....but I think I will play the OVER here. Minny' style is different at home take away the game vs Houston and every home game was190 or better since the opener vs Sac....most were 195 ++(all but one )
LAC@ SA
Spurs offense seems to be clicking and LA not playing much defense at all lately. Looking at some sort of over play maybe 188 or maybe SA team over.....
Wash @ Philly
You know there gonna lay at least 4 to Philly and I might have to take the home team....I'll go over as long as its below 240...Home team is 8-2 SU
Pho @ Boston
Celts just dont have the horses right now....Wally could return though.....OVER.....-4.5...
Port @ Ind
Actually I like Indy here as they have owned da Blazers......
Det @ Orl
Both teams could be flat so waiting.....
Hou @ Char
Just not a fan of Houston on the road and while Char stunk vs SA not the same situation and it seemed to get ugly after they lost Breven Knight...Under would seem logical but I dont feel interested...
Basically why I say not much yet.....Grizz & Bulls
Hornets @ Seattle
Lets go under the assumption the Hornets will be w/o their trip Peja , BJ and West & Seatlle will be w/o Mr.Shuttleswoth....Depending on where the put this total out I would probably like the OVER. I think the Hornets guys are getting used to playing w/o there stars and becoming more assertive and confident on offense....they just did win in LAL ...while Ray is a great shooter it also takes away that need to feed the star and let your second tier stars make some plays..
Atl @ LAL
just a tough game I have no feel for..Hawks always look attractive as dogs but teams on the other end of the spectrum.....LAL upset at home and ATL upset @ Denver...
The Rematch Miami @ Denver
Really with Nuggets off ahome loss & Miami on a road trip B to B it seems logical to play Denver.....I just dont trust these guys and I have been waiting for them to fold for awhile now so I cant touch a side...all Denevr home games look like attractive overs but maybe the 1st H over or 1st Q is best...
Mem @ Milw
A dog I really like here...Bucks after winning in OT by 8 against Port are now 2-6 ATS as chalk and we know they were 7.5 that last game...Memphis is gritty. They have players injured but all season lomg guys have stepped up...I know mILW has played better but there really arent many teams I see them better then ....I see -3 as a fair number...
Tor @ Chi
Well Bulls are HOT 6 straight..5-0-1 ATS...& they have won 10 straight versus Tor....need I go further....
Utah @ Minny
Not sure if I ride the Minny train AGAIN.....but I think I will play the OVER here. Minny' style is different at home take away the game vs Houston and every home game was190 or better since the opener vs Sac....most were 195 ++(all but one )
LAC@ SA
Spurs offense seems to be clicking and LA not playing much defense at all lately. Looking at some sort of over play maybe 188 or maybe SA team over.....
Wash @ Philly
You know there gonna lay at least 4 to Philly and I might have to take the home team....I'll go over as long as its below 240...Home team is 8-2 SU
Pho @ Boston
Celts just dont have the horses right now....Wally could return though.....OVER.....-4.5...
Port @ Ind
Actually I like Indy here as they have owned da Blazers......
Det @ Orl
Both teams could be flat so waiting.....
Hou @ Char
Just not a fan of Houston on the road and while Char stunk vs SA not the same situation and it seemed to get ugly after they lost Breven Knight...Under would seem logical but I dont feel interested...
Basically why I say not much yet.....Grizz & Bulls
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xpression syst_m
a true american rags to rags story...
I like Memphis on the ML against Milwaukee. Did anybody here watch the game the Bucks had versus the Blazers? if so, how much zone d did stotts employ in that one and during what time in the game?
speaking of zones, the lakers can't figure out for their lives how to attack and succeed against a zone defense so far this year, not a huge fan of t lue, but he is playing well this year and i have not been impressed with the lakers' pgs abilities to defend the dribble this year, this spot just spells trouble for atlanta imo, but im tempted to take a shot nonetheless
speaking of zones, the lakers can't figure out for their lives how to attack and succeed against a zone defense so far this year, not a huge fan of t lue, but he is playing well this year and i have not been impressed with the lakers' pgs abilities to defend the dribble this year, this spot just spells trouble for atlanta imo, but im tempted to take a shot nonetheless
Nut-
As strange as it sounds, I think Boston might be a square play tomorrow. You'll have every square who wants to be a situational handicapper blindly fading Phoenix off the double OT game. They may be right, but I bet a few of my fade guys at Covers will be grabbing the points. Has forum-trendy dog written all over it. I honestly think the best play is the OVER. If anybody thinks Phoenix will be lacking the energy to run tomorrow they're nuts. Look at their B2Bs this year, averaging over 220 points. Both teams clear 110 IMO. But man, this card blows.
As strange as it sounds, I think Boston might be a square play tomorrow. You'll have every square who wants to be a situational handicapper blindly fading Phoenix off the double OT game. They may be right, but I bet a few of my fade guys at Covers will be grabbing the points. Has forum-trendy dog written all over it. I honestly think the best play is the OVER. If anybody thinks Phoenix will be lacking the energy to run tomorrow they're nuts. Look at their B2Bs this year, averaging over 220 points. Both teams clear 110 IMO. But man, this card blows.
S
scourge
Guest
Ray said:
The 230 situation is pretty much a no play when the Suns are involved. Just check out the history of how the Suns buck the trend on a regular basis.
Kevnari said:
Right now tmrw looks like the tough spot..off the OT in Boston after that they get a day off and then Charlotte who really doesnthave the offense to run with the Suns...
I am gonna say we get 4.5 or 5 here anything different either way should present some value..the shooting %s are ridiculous ..Suns were like 14 of 27 from three!
Inspekdah
My man, Novak Djokovic!
Card aint that bad IMO...
Memphis is a good spot. I think the Bucks stink just like Nut. Also, Bulls are a great spot. They are a streaky team... and should blow out TOR. TOR shoots alot of 3's, has really no inside game, and CHI has plenty of options for Bosh. I expect the Bulls to win by DD's. Bulls will not take this one off... etc. etc.
Need to find a few winners after Nets heartbreaker and a stupid chase play.
Right now..
Memphis +6 would be golden.
Bulls -8 looks great.
Denver 1Q
Memphis is a good spot. I think the Bucks stink just like Nut. Also, Bulls are a great spot. They are a streaky team... and should blow out TOR. TOR shoots alot of 3's, has really no inside game, and CHI has plenty of options for Bosh. I expect the Bulls to win by DD's. Bulls will not take this one off... etc. etc.
Need to find a few winners after Nets heartbreaker and a stupid chase play.
Right now..
Memphis +6 would be golden.
Bulls -8 looks great.
Denver 1Q
R
Rogino
Guest
MIL-MEM over 192,5
Bucks at home dont care much about real defense imo and is capable to score 100+ here as MEM this season wo Gasol, Battier, Lorenzo Wright doesnt have inside presence and is more offensive with Atkins on PG. Fair is 195,5 here. 103:97 kinda game
LAL-ATL under 198
Lakers is one of teams that can easy adjust to oponent style and still beat him. Vs similar teams they won with total under 200 and ATL has far better defense this season as previous times. Hawks miss Claxton and Childress and some points with them. ATL hold Nuggets at 98 and Lakers wont score much more. Fair 194. 101:92 kinda game.
ORL-DET +4,5 Stons
Magics after long long road trip first game at home what is dangerous spot and after 1 day rest they play again vs strong DET which is powered with big win in Texas. Pistons like big matches and are before 5 days rest so they will put maximum effort here. ORL plays tomorrow again vs Sixers. Also i see advantage on PG as Nelson or Arroyo cant stop bigger BBB-Billups. Fair 2 hcp
So far these leans, i want to read your thoughts and then i will decide maybe. Still some lgames are offline so long day ahead. GL
Bucks at home dont care much about real defense imo and is capable to score 100+ here as MEM this season wo Gasol, Battier, Lorenzo Wright doesnt have inside presence and is more offensive with Atkins on PG. Fair is 195,5 here. 103:97 kinda game
LAL-ATL under 198
Lakers is one of teams that can easy adjust to oponent style and still beat him. Vs similar teams they won with total under 200 and ATL has far better defense this season as previous times. Hawks miss Claxton and Childress and some points with them. ATL hold Nuggets at 98 and Lakers wont score much more. Fair 194. 101:92 kinda game.
ORL-DET +4,5 Stons
Magics after long long road trip first game at home what is dangerous spot and after 1 day rest they play again vs strong DET which is powered with big win in Texas. Pistons like big matches and are before 5 days rest so they will put maximum effort here. ORL plays tomorrow again vs Sixers. Also i see advantage on PG as Nelson or Arroyo cant stop bigger BBB-Billups. Fair 2 hcp
So far these leans, i want to read your thoughts and then i will decide maybe. Still some lgames are offline so long day ahead. GL
xgod
Pretty much a regular
I only play sides. That aside, Im liking Utah in this spot. Minnesotta aint that good a team homeboy. I think utah roles in this one as they have the defensive juggernaut AK47 on KG. Im also liking orlando. I think Detroit may not showup for this game. Good matchup in this one. Orlando front court can roll. Denver too I think can blow out the heat off of a ot win. Chicago can also blowout the raps IMO. The Bulls are on a hot ass roll. Toronto is a terrible 2nd half team. So I think they expend a lot of energy in the first half and keep the game close then fall off in the 2nd half.
I'll also take the clippers. Too many points for the spurs I think. Clippers getting they groove back. I think that this will be a very close game.
Other leans:
Im also leaning on atlanta but am iffy on this one.
Houston too I think can really blow out the bobcats but have a bad feeling about this game so wont touch it either.
I have no opinion on the memphis bucks team as both are pretty unpredictable.
I'll also take the clippers. Too many points for the spurs I think. Clippers getting they groove back. I think that this will be a very close game.
Other leans:
Im also leaning on atlanta but am iffy on this one.
Houston too I think can really blow out the bobcats but have a bad feeling about this game so wont touch it either.
I have no opinion on the memphis bucks team as both are pretty unpredictable.
Capt. Slap
1st year apprentice of Sammy
The only input I have on this thread is as followed
1.) Celtics suck, I can't believe I'm a fan of them...yet I still bet on them...as soon as I place that wager I say to myself "why...why did I just do that"
2.) Fade Big_Al tomorrow :an_roll_laugh:...my man, you're due for a loss sometime soon...and I don't mean a heartbreaking loss, I'm talking a "take the Under 210 but the total is 318 loss" :an_roll_laugh:
3.) If I ever decide to post a pick again, and say that it is a HUGE play for me, fade it...I think my last 3 or 4 HUGE plays have all been bad losses, that includes Alabama +3 today which I hit very hard before the game, and at halftime *sigh*
4.) Follow system #2 closely
That is all.
1.) Celtics suck, I can't believe I'm a fan of them...yet I still bet on them...as soon as I place that wager I say to myself "why...why did I just do that"
2.) Fade Big_Al tomorrow :an_roll_laugh:...my man, you're due for a loss sometime soon...and I don't mean a heartbreaking loss, I'm talking a "take the Under 210 but the total is 318 loss" :an_roll_laugh:
3.) If I ever decide to post a pick again, and say that it is a HUGE play for me, fade it...I think my last 3 or 4 HUGE plays have all been bad losses, that includes Alabama +3 today which I hit very hard before the game, and at halftime *sigh*
4.) Follow system #2 closely
That is all.
brewers7
Pretty much a regular
BDK:
Sorry I haven't made it in sooner...Love what you are doing here and I really like discussion threads and will try and stop in a few times a week, not just to copy-and-paste my daily write-ups, but hopefully add some chatter here with this awesome collection of cappers...
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Early looks at Friday's games:
Houston at Charlotte: How low can we go here?...Both h2h games at CHAR were Unders and the Bobcats have a chart-play to the Under...3 of the last 4 h2h have gone Under in regulation time...Both h2h games at CHAR between these two have gone to Overtime...Overall, HOU has gone Under 7 of 8...HOU leads the league now in FG% allowed while CHAR is 4th...
Detroit at Orlando: Can this be anything but a let-down spot for Detroit?...Big win last night at Dallas and now they go and play the Magic coming off a fairly decisive loss at Indiana...Detroit's defense improving as they are now 12th in the league in FG% allowed while Orlando is 2nd...DET is 4-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season, but 1-1 ATS on the Road...ORL just 2-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, but they haven't lost 2 straight since Week 1 of the season...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after 7 straight Overs...
Portland at Indiana: Indy has won and covered 6 straight in this h2h series and 4 of the last 5 in this h2h series at Indy have gone Under...Both teams have gone Under in their last 2 games overall...Gotta wonder here if Indy has an eye on their game at Cleveland on Saturday...PORT on their 3rd game of a 6-game Road trip...
Phoenix at Boston: No lines posted...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Gotta wonder how much gas ins in the Phoenix tank after playing a double-OT thriller Thursday night at NJ, with 318 points scored?...PHOE lost a 152-149 double-OT game at Home vs. SEA last season on 1/22/06, and DID go Over their next game at Orlando, but they had a day's rest for the Orlando game...PHOE had 3 starters play more than 46 minutes last night...PHOE has now won 8 in a row, too...Boston has lost 4 in a row...The Away Team in this h2h series has 5 of the last 6...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after there had been 5 Overs and a push the previous 6 meetings...
LA Clippers at San Antonio: Getting Manu Ginobili back seems to have been just the antidote the Spurs needed to get rolling...Since Ginobili's return, the Spurs demolished GS by 40 and then thrashed the Bobcats by 20 at CHAR...This is not what the Clippers need to hear...Why?...As they said in the movie Slapshot, San Antonio "OWNS" the Clippers in recent years, winning 29 of the last 33 games in this h2h series (21-11-1 ATS), including 9 of the last 10...The Spurs have also won 7 straight and are 16-1 SU & 13-3-1 ATS vs. the Clips at Home the last 17 meetings...And when it goes bad, it goes bad because the Clips played GREAT at SA last year on 12/13/05 and lost by 8 in OT (outscored 11-3) to NOT Cover the 7-point spread...The Clips continue to under-achieve, but I wonder if they can rise up here and get under the Vegas number?...The last 25 meetings in this h2h2 series sees an 18-5-2 tally to the Under (and one of the pushes was the aforementioned OT game)...So the last 3 at SA h2h have gone Under in regulation and 9 of the last 13 in SA have gone Under...
Utah at Minnesota: Fishy line here with minny as an early FAV...Of course, I am not one bit surprised to see 91% of the early bets going on Utah and this has been the heaviest bet game at this juncture of the morning...Is Vegas giving us a free winner here?...Are the powers-at-be that reside at Zip Code 89109 in their Ivory Towers with their Magic 8-ball saying "Merry Christmas" early to people paying attention??...Is Vegas telling us to go ahead and bet the farm on Minny, or are they SCREAMING at us to also add the beach house to the bet on Minny here?... Utah will be a FAV by mid-afternoon on Friday or my name is not brewers7 (well, ok, it isn't, but still)...Because where is the evidence to show Minny is going to win this one?...Utah won the last 3 games h2h last season including winning both games at Minnesota comfortably...Is Utah looking ahead to a Dallas tilt at Home on 12/11, their next game?...Minny has Covered 7 of their last 8 and have gone Under 5 straight overall...Utah has become an Under team since AK47 has gotten settled back in after his return from injury as Utah is under 4 of their last 6 overall...Minny is 3rd now in FG% allowed and Utah is 12th...
Washington at Philadelphia: No lines posted...Allen Iverson is questionable for Philly...WAS got their first Road win of the season, winning by 11 at MSG vs. the Knicks their last time out while Philly has come crashing back to reality in a big way after a surprising 3-0 start...Since then, Philly has gone 2-12, losing 5 straight and 9 of 10...The Sixers did nothing to upgrade their team in the offseason and they are going nowhere this season, even in the pathetic Atlantic Division, where 38 wins will be a lock to get someboady a division title...Philly will be lucky to get 28...Now that I am done bashing my team, I will glance at this matchup and see that the home Team has won 6 of the alst 7 in this h2h series, going 5-2 ATS...Philly's perimeter defense was horrid last time out at CHI, as the Bulls had wide-open looks all night long and shot an NBA-high 61.5% from the field in that demolition on ESPN...Well, guess what?...The Wiz have some decent outside shooters last time I looked...Arenas, Butler & Jamison may combine for another 80 on Friday (they combined for 81 at MSG last time out)...But strictly from a handicapping point of view, I would think Philly would bounce-back from that 27-point debacle on National TV last time out...Yet I see a Wizards team who may be hitting their stride now after losing 7 of 8, because they have now won 4 of 5 and their coach asked for "fighters" earlier in the week and the team has responded with a Home throttling of Dallas and followed that up wih their first Road win...2 teams going in opposite directions here, and you might even say there is a chart-play to take WAS after 8 straight Road losses, they now have their first win...These teams have gone Over 7 of their last 10 h2h...
Toronto at Chicago: Morris Peterson is available to play for Toronto...Tyrus Thomas is questionable for Chicago...The Bulls are rolling, rolling, rolling --RAWHIDE since that disastrous 7-game Road trip, where they lost thei first 6 games...They won their finale at MSG and then have moved on to win 5 more in a row, bringing their win streak to 6, Covering 5 and pushing once...I guess people aren't talking or caring too much about Ben Wallace and his headband any more...Toronto is also taking the same trek they did last year...After starting 0-8 SU & ATS last season, Toronto went on to become the best ATS team in the league from that point onwards...Toronto started this season 1-6 ATS, and since then have been a Cover machine, going 9-2 ATS...Do you want to talk about a Moneyline chart-play?...How about this...The Bulls are 13-0 SU & ATS against Toronto the last 13 meetings...Yes, 13-0 SU AND ATS...But here's the funny part...Toronto had won the previous 16 meetings between these 2 teams...And before that, CHI had won 8 straight...Ok, enough...But 13 straight SU & ATS cannot be ignored...8 of the last 12 have gone Over h2h...TOR Under 7 of their last 9 and have ditched that run-and-gun offense...
Memphis at Milwaukee: Charlie Villanueva is questionable for MILW...Even when MEMP wasn't very good, they had a good record vs. the Eastern Conference, and once again, The Griz are 4-5 vs. the East, while being just 1-8 vs. the West SU...MILW has Covered 4 of 5 (including their miracle OT Cover last time out) after a NC5 overall...MEMP won last time out at BOS...MEMP is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS vs. Milwaukee the last 8 h2h meetings...6 of these 8 have gone Under...
New Orleans at Seattle: No lines posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Ray Allen expected to miss for SEA...This is the second game without Ray Allen for the Sonics...They rose up and beat Atlanta fairly comfortably last time out, but I wouldn't expect the same here...It is typical for teams to rise up that first game without a star player to win...But the let-down spot occurs next time out...Well, today is the next time out and the streaky Hornets are coming to town, not Santa Claus...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and are picking up right where they left off this year...C3, NC4, C4, NC4, Push, now a Cover last time out in an impressive upset win at Staples over the Lakers...How did that happen?...They finally made the adjustment necessary to play well without 3 of their top scorers, who have been M.I.A. for several games now...The Hornets broke out offensively vs. CHI at Home for 108 points after a 77, 73, 79 & 83, with all 5 games being losses...But then they got 4 days off to reset the offense with the new pieces and came out with 105 as they beat the lakers on the Road by 16...They had 2 days off before the previous 2 games, too, and things clicked finally offensively in the 111-108 loss to Chicago, but now the final adjustments must have been made as they are now doing just fine offensively despite missing 3 of their 4 top guns...Obviously a chart-play here for the hornets and I don't see a let-down here, either, this team is just too streaky...The Hornets won 3 of the 4 meetings last season...3 of those games went Over, too, but I wonder about too many Overs without Ray-Ray, as the Sonics did stay Under without him last time out...
Atlanta at LA Lakers: Speedy Claxton is questionable for Atlanta...OK, we have a serious bounce-back spot for the Lakers and Atlanta is off an upset win at Denver last time out which brings us to our NBA Handicapping 101 Rule that states you always: Take the good bounce-back team off a loss vs. the bad let-down team off a win...And we are talking about a team that was an 8.5-point Fav last time out losing by 16 at Home now playing a team that was a 12-point Dog last time out who won straight up on the Road...Now before I hit the Submit button on a wager equaling half my bankroll, I must point out that this handicapping Rule of Thumb generally works better when we are not dealing with 9-point chalk...I hate laying chalk in the NBA, and especially anything over 6, but for me, it is Lakers or no bet here...
ATL did win outright here last season at Staples on 2/15/06, but this was coming off a 25-point pounding at SAC and they had 2 days rest to lick their wounds and the Lakers perhaps had a Valentine's Day hangover from eating too much chocolate...ATL has actually won 3 of the last 5 trips into Staples...I vividly remember ATL losing by 46 here on 1/9/04, but that was bad, bad luck because an angry Lakers team with Kobe, SHAQ, Peyton and the Mailman had just lost 4 straight on the Road and were coming off a 22-point pounding at Denver 2 days prior so there was no mercy shown to the Hawks that night...Anyway, I don't see a 46-point win here, but I do see a win, but I wonder if there is a look-ahead here for LAL as the Spurs come to Staples on Sunday...That might be enough to keep me off the lake-Show, but I see a more focused and concerted effort here and besides, Kobe wasn't 100% last time out and he'll be healthier tonight...The last 4 in this h2h series have gone Over, but since ATL put up a 194 at Denver, how does this go Over 198??...
Miami at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are questionable for Denver...The Heat continue to roll, or at least, Cover the spread, as they are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS their last 6...MIA is 2-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season so far...DEN is 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but did not Cover in this spot last time out, losing outright vs. the Hawks...Denver has won 3 straight h2h vs. Miami, including a win over the Heat on 11/14...Revenge spot here for Miami?...Do they have enough left on this 4th and final game of this Road trip in the high altitude?...I am not too sure how focused DEN will be here when they go to Dallas on Saturday...They are in bounce-back mode and MIA is off a hard-fought Road OT-win on Thursday at SAC...These teams Over 4 of the last 5 h2h...
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Sorry I haven't made it in sooner...Love what you are doing here and I really like discussion threads and will try and stop in a few times a week, not just to copy-and-paste my daily write-ups, but hopefully add some chatter here with this awesome collection of cappers...
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Early looks at Friday's games:
Houston at Charlotte: How low can we go here?...Both h2h games at CHAR were Unders and the Bobcats have a chart-play to the Under...3 of the last 4 h2h have gone Under in regulation time...Both h2h games at CHAR between these two have gone to Overtime...Overall, HOU has gone Under 7 of 8...HOU leads the league now in FG% allowed while CHAR is 4th...
Detroit at Orlando: Can this be anything but a let-down spot for Detroit?...Big win last night at Dallas and now they go and play the Magic coming off a fairly decisive loss at Indiana...Detroit's defense improving as they are now 12th in the league in FG% allowed while Orlando is 2nd...DET is 4-2 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season, but 1-1 ATS on the Road...ORL just 2-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, but they haven't lost 2 straight since Week 1 of the season...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after 7 straight Overs...
Portland at Indiana: Indy has won and covered 6 straight in this h2h series and 4 of the last 5 in this h2h series at Indy have gone Under...Both teams have gone Under in their last 2 games overall...Gotta wonder here if Indy has an eye on their game at Cleveland on Saturday...PORT on their 3rd game of a 6-game Road trip...
Phoenix at Boston: No lines posted...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Gotta wonder how much gas ins in the Phoenix tank after playing a double-OT thriller Thursday night at NJ, with 318 points scored?...PHOE lost a 152-149 double-OT game at Home vs. SEA last season on 1/22/06, and DID go Over their next game at Orlando, but they had a day's rest for the Orlando game...PHOE had 3 starters play more than 46 minutes last night...PHOE has now won 8 in a row, too...Boston has lost 4 in a row...The Away Team in this h2h series has 5 of the last 6...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Under after there had been 5 Overs and a push the previous 6 meetings...
LA Clippers at San Antonio: Getting Manu Ginobili back seems to have been just the antidote the Spurs needed to get rolling...Since Ginobili's return, the Spurs demolished GS by 40 and then thrashed the Bobcats by 20 at CHAR...This is not what the Clippers need to hear...Why?...As they said in the movie Slapshot, San Antonio "OWNS" the Clippers in recent years, winning 29 of the last 33 games in this h2h series (21-11-1 ATS), including 9 of the last 10...The Spurs have also won 7 straight and are 16-1 SU & 13-3-1 ATS vs. the Clips at Home the last 17 meetings...And when it goes bad, it goes bad because the Clips played GREAT at SA last year on 12/13/05 and lost by 8 in OT (outscored 11-3) to NOT Cover the 7-point spread...The Clips continue to under-achieve, but I wonder if they can rise up here and get under the Vegas number?...The last 25 meetings in this h2h2 series sees an 18-5-2 tally to the Under (and one of the pushes was the aforementioned OT game)...So the last 3 at SA h2h have gone Under in regulation and 9 of the last 13 in SA have gone Under...
Utah at Minnesota: Fishy line here with minny as an early FAV...Of course, I am not one bit surprised to see 91% of the early bets going on Utah and this has been the heaviest bet game at this juncture of the morning...Is Vegas giving us a free winner here?...Are the powers-at-be that reside at Zip Code 89109 in their Ivory Towers with their Magic 8-ball saying "Merry Christmas" early to people paying attention??...Is Vegas telling us to go ahead and bet the farm on Minny, or are they SCREAMING at us to also add the beach house to the bet on Minny here?... Utah will be a FAV by mid-afternoon on Friday or my name is not brewers7 (well, ok, it isn't, but still)...Because where is the evidence to show Minny is going to win this one?...Utah won the last 3 games h2h last season including winning both games at Minnesota comfortably...Is Utah looking ahead to a Dallas tilt at Home on 12/11, their next game?...Minny has Covered 7 of their last 8 and have gone Under 5 straight overall...Utah has become an Under team since AK47 has gotten settled back in after his return from injury as Utah is under 4 of their last 6 overall...Minny is 3rd now in FG% allowed and Utah is 12th...
Washington at Philadelphia: No lines posted...Allen Iverson is questionable for Philly...WAS got their first Road win of the season, winning by 11 at MSG vs. the Knicks their last time out while Philly has come crashing back to reality in a big way after a surprising 3-0 start...Since then, Philly has gone 2-12, losing 5 straight and 9 of 10...The Sixers did nothing to upgrade their team in the offseason and they are going nowhere this season, even in the pathetic Atlantic Division, where 38 wins will be a lock to get someboady a division title...Philly will be lucky to get 28...Now that I am done bashing my team, I will glance at this matchup and see that the home Team has won 6 of the alst 7 in this h2h series, going 5-2 ATS...Philly's perimeter defense was horrid last time out at CHI, as the Bulls had wide-open looks all night long and shot an NBA-high 61.5% from the field in that demolition on ESPN...Well, guess what?...The Wiz have some decent outside shooters last time I looked...Arenas, Butler & Jamison may combine for another 80 on Friday (they combined for 81 at MSG last time out)...But strictly from a handicapping point of view, I would think Philly would bounce-back from that 27-point debacle on National TV last time out...Yet I see a Wizards team who may be hitting their stride now after losing 7 of 8, because they have now won 4 of 5 and their coach asked for "fighters" earlier in the week and the team has responded with a Home throttling of Dallas and followed that up wih their first Road win...2 teams going in opposite directions here, and you might even say there is a chart-play to take WAS after 8 straight Road losses, they now have their first win...These teams have gone Over 7 of their last 10 h2h...
Toronto at Chicago: Morris Peterson is available to play for Toronto...Tyrus Thomas is questionable for Chicago...The Bulls are rolling, rolling, rolling --RAWHIDE since that disastrous 7-game Road trip, where they lost thei first 6 games...They won their finale at MSG and then have moved on to win 5 more in a row, bringing their win streak to 6, Covering 5 and pushing once...I guess people aren't talking or caring too much about Ben Wallace and his headband any more...Toronto is also taking the same trek they did last year...After starting 0-8 SU & ATS last season, Toronto went on to become the best ATS team in the league from that point onwards...Toronto started this season 1-6 ATS, and since then have been a Cover machine, going 9-2 ATS...Do you want to talk about a Moneyline chart-play?...How about this...The Bulls are 13-0 SU & ATS against Toronto the last 13 meetings...Yes, 13-0 SU AND ATS...But here's the funny part...Toronto had won the previous 16 meetings between these 2 teams...And before that, CHI had won 8 straight...Ok, enough...But 13 straight SU & ATS cannot be ignored...8 of the last 12 have gone Over h2h...TOR Under 7 of their last 9 and have ditched that run-and-gun offense...
Memphis at Milwaukee: Charlie Villanueva is questionable for MILW...Even when MEMP wasn't very good, they had a good record vs. the Eastern Conference, and once again, The Griz are 4-5 vs. the East, while being just 1-8 vs. the West SU...MILW has Covered 4 of 5 (including their miracle OT Cover last time out) after a NC5 overall...MEMP won last time out at BOS...MEMP is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS vs. Milwaukee the last 8 h2h meetings...6 of these 8 have gone Under...
New Orleans at Seattle: No lines posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Ray Allen expected to miss for SEA...This is the second game without Ray Allen for the Sonics...They rose up and beat Atlanta fairly comfortably last time out, but I wouldn't expect the same here...It is typical for teams to rise up that first game without a star player to win...But the let-down spot occurs next time out...Well, today is the next time out and the streaky Hornets are coming to town, not Santa Claus...The Hornets were a streaky ATS team last year and are picking up right where they left off this year...C3, NC4, C4, NC4, Push, now a Cover last time out in an impressive upset win at Staples over the Lakers...How did that happen?...They finally made the adjustment necessary to play well without 3 of their top scorers, who have been M.I.A. for several games now...The Hornets broke out offensively vs. CHI at Home for 108 points after a 77, 73, 79 & 83, with all 5 games being losses...But then they got 4 days off to reset the offense with the new pieces and came out with 105 as they beat the lakers on the Road by 16...They had 2 days off before the previous 2 games, too, and things clicked finally offensively in the 111-108 loss to Chicago, but now the final adjustments must have been made as they are now doing just fine offensively despite missing 3 of their 4 top guns...Obviously a chart-play here for the hornets and I don't see a let-down here, either, this team is just too streaky...The Hornets won 3 of the 4 meetings last season...3 of those games went Over, too, but I wonder about too many Overs without Ray-Ray, as the Sonics did stay Under without him last time out...
Atlanta at LA Lakers: Speedy Claxton is questionable for Atlanta...OK, we have a serious bounce-back spot for the Lakers and Atlanta is off an upset win at Denver last time out which brings us to our NBA Handicapping 101 Rule that states you always: Take the good bounce-back team off a loss vs. the bad let-down team off a win...And we are talking about a team that was an 8.5-point Fav last time out losing by 16 at Home now playing a team that was a 12-point Dog last time out who won straight up on the Road...Now before I hit the Submit button on a wager equaling half my bankroll, I must point out that this handicapping Rule of Thumb generally works better when we are not dealing with 9-point chalk...I hate laying chalk in the NBA, and especially anything over 6, but for me, it is Lakers or no bet here...
ATL did win outright here last season at Staples on 2/15/06, but this was coming off a 25-point pounding at SAC and they had 2 days rest to lick their wounds and the Lakers perhaps had a Valentine's Day hangover from eating too much chocolate...ATL has actually won 3 of the last 5 trips into Staples...I vividly remember ATL losing by 46 here on 1/9/04, but that was bad, bad luck because an angry Lakers team with Kobe, SHAQ, Peyton and the Mailman had just lost 4 straight on the Road and were coming off a 22-point pounding at Denver 2 days prior so there was no mercy shown to the Hawks that night...Anyway, I don't see a 46-point win here, but I do see a win, but I wonder if there is a look-ahead here for LAL as the Spurs come to Staples on Sunday...That might be enough to keep me off the lake-Show, but I see a more focused and concerted effort here and besides, Kobe wasn't 100% last time out and he'll be healthier tonight...The last 4 in this h2h series have gone Over, but since ATL put up a 194 at Denver, how does this go Over 198??...
Miami at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are questionable for Denver...The Heat continue to roll, or at least, Cover the spread, as they are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS their last 6...MIA is 2-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season so far...DEN is 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but did not Cover in this spot last time out, losing outright vs. the Hawks...Denver has won 3 straight h2h vs. Miami, including a win over the Heat on 11/14...Revenge spot here for Miami?...Do they have enough left on this 4th and final game of this Road trip in the high altitude?...I am not too sure how focused DEN will be here when they go to Dallas on Saturday...They are in bounce-back mode and MIA is off a hard-fought Road OT-win on Thursday at SAC...These teams Over 4 of the last 5 h2h...
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Capt. Slap
1st year apprentice of Sammy
Nice to see you here Brewers, I have seen your posts at Covers a few times...you are a welcomed addition to the board
Damn, I sound like a moderator or something :an_roll_laugh:
But seriously, GL this season, keep up with everythang you've been doing
EDIT - I'd also like to add that I may blindly take the over in the Houston game, as it has to hit sometime right!?!? Plus I was figuring a total of more in the high 180's for some reason 'an_horse'
Damn, I sound like a moderator or something :an_roll_laugh:
But seriously, GL this season, keep up with everythang you've been doing
EDIT - I'd also like to add that I may blindly take the over in the Houston game, as it has to hit sometime right!?!? Plus I was figuring a total of more in the high 180's for some reason 'an_horse'
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Kevnari said:
They play like that every night....they don't usually shoot 52% from the field and 54.8% from 3pt land. The shots just would not stop falling for either team last night...
Off no rest, Phoenix has done very well the last few seasons. Betcrimes has a great thread about it at the top of the forum...look for the 230/100 thread.
GL with what you decide.
'an_horse'
xpression syst_m said:
I think ANY team +5.5 is a good play vs. Milwaukee. In any situation. That's the most unreliable team in the NBA for my money. Haven't watched Milwaukee in ages, no clue what their shitty coach is doing in terms of D. I'll consider Atlanta, but I don't think I can do it with the situation. But JJ is good enough to keep his team in that game, and he'll be pumped to play vs. KB.
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