NBA December 2nd


Breaking it down briefly
Well I am going to make an effort to do a few things from now on. First have patience its become to much like a game to me to get lines before they move and it always seems that by tip I dont like the play anymore and usually ride it out as a loss..going to trust my instincts much more and be patient....

Philly @ NJ
Holy shit the Nets had 2 days off bewteen games!! Sounds crazy but they havent had two days off since there Nov 8th game!! They will be playing there 14th game in 25 days here (so there last was 13 in 22 days). Its a huge problem IMO when you factor they had a West Coast trip and some injuries which resulted in a thin bench. In Boston I had a feeling Hassan Adams was gonna play a big role cause they needed minutes and he had played well in limited spurts. There bench is Adams , Williams , Nachbar , Moore , and Wright. Philly is w/o Webber and lost his replacement Randolph the other day in pratice. The total seems high considering (@196) Philly has basically scored around 95 pts past 6 away and J just hit 100 for the 1st time in 7 seven games..Philly is on 3 days rest and is 4-1 L5 ATS with 3 days rest (2-0 this yr) while NJ is 3-13 -1 ATS past 17 with teams who have losing away 5 or better Philly has my interest well as the under...Dog & away team have covered last 4.

Miami @ Memphis

One can expect to see Miami get bet down here. Interesting trend is Miami 1-5 ATS on 1 days rest while Memphis is 3-1 ATS on 2 days rest. Series has seen 6 unders staright but that dates back to 03. Memphis been on the road ever since the 1st 2 games playing 10 of 14 away. All season in 6 home games they have scored at least 95 pts except in the 86-80 loss to Houston. They havent been favored since the opening games home Vs NYK and 4 of 6 at home they held teams to about 85ppg..Miami offense was clicking before the Piston game though with 3 straight off a 100 pts...Heat have been dogged to Char & Atl recently but won SU. The key with Miami is Wade he was awful versus DET and they lost by 2......Heat were alos dogged @ NO w/o West by 4.5 and lost badly due to the 4th I guess Miami can hang for a half but will fade since no one else is stepping up in Miami offensively....if this drops will look at Memphis and thinking about the over if Grizz get to 96 Heat should see 86...

Toronto @ NYK
First thing is we have Raptors flying under the radar with a 4th in 5 spot... @ NO , @ Dal , day off and back home to host Boston tonite now back down to NY / MSG......seems like alot of travel ...Raps just 1-8 away..and beat the DEPLETED Hornets....It appears to me the raptors let it all hangout at home with 4 players going at least 35 minutes while Ny had just 4 top 30 minutes and most did barely. Guys like Francis (33min), Crawford(33min) and Marbury(36min) havent seen this many lately so its not a concern and Curry played 31 minutes. I tend to believe NYK , Bo , Tor all are basically neutral teams so when they play its basically home team is favored by 3. Which we have here just NY is so damn inconsistent. Raps also playing 9th inn 11 games away....if lineholds or drops I would be interested in NYK.....but like the over...teams are 6-1 OVER in b to B. Tor allowed 117 in their's(only 2 ) and NYK allowed 107 in 5 ocassions..

Kings @ Spurs

Artest could be joining Manu on the bench since his back flared up tonite. Spurs on days rest off consecutive losses get the unimpressive Kings who were recently catching 6.5 in Seattle...SA already won in Sac so revenge could be an issue as well as the playoffs...I just dont see value unless the lien goes higher though. Kings played a similar elite squad in dallas and got smoked......Spurs are 24-17-1 ATS on 2 Days rest!!!!! plus consecutive losses.....strong lean towards SA here....despiet being 5-16-1 L22 as home chalk....great team equals inflated lines...but Kings caught 7 in Dallas and werent close...thinking over as well...

Wiz @ Chi

If you can allow NO to get 100 your D has issues so interested in a total here when it comes out...think +5 is attractive though....think these teams arevery equal and 3 pts is more accurate.. For all the Wiz away troubles the highest they have been as a dog is +7 which they covered vs Houston , they were +6 in Cle covered , +5 in Dallas got smoked, +3.5 in Orl covered , Pistons were +4.5 only but lost by 9 and 0-2 as chalk in NYK & Mem. Scary part is Bulls just played 4 athome losing the opener by 1 whne they choked late and blowing out Milw and beat Indy and NY as as about 6.5 or 7 pt gonna wait thinking dog and over.....

Cle @ houston

This looks absurd but Houston 3 days rest versus Cavs on B to B who are 1-3 ATS in these spots. Dog is 4-1 L5 in the series , Rockets just 3-13 AT as home favs and Cavs were only +5.5 in SA and won SU...seems way off here....Total seems low but HOU at home has been real low scoring of late...

Ind @ Denver

pacers playing 4th in 5 nites away but this looks fat...+7 to a solid team...Nuggets won all 4 SU last year....both playing B to B and Indy is 4-2 ATS this yr in that spot and the 212 total seems a bit steep IMO...think again they are over shading the fav in a situational play....

Seattle @ Utah

Crazy line ....revenge minded Sea who was 4.5 pt favs when Utaj came to town last week is now +8. Sonics are 8-1-1 ATS away past 10 games..this shouldntbe higher then 6 IMO...jazz have dropped 3 of and are embarrassing effort in LAL. Since they just allowed 132 you would expect a low scoring game here I owuld think...Sea 8-2-1 ATS off a SU win...


Both teams are home but the total was adjusted from the 1st meeting to 198. Kobe off a fifty spot and LAL 132.....however I lean to the under since I wold guess LAL regresses offensively here. Hopeing we see 200 in LAC's revenge game. Personally I think its crazy that LAC lost as -1.5 favs but come backs as 2.5 pt favs,,,,,,revenge worked out well tonite for Cle and Denver so maybe its worth the price to lay it....

Milw @ GS

As much as I hate Bucks off a game in PHO this again seems fat....thought -5 was more accurate. Would say generally Indy and Milw are about neutral and Indy catching 6 just won SU and Richardson is questionable here........curious at thetotal expect 220 something..and will play under.....if so........
Boxscores of the Dallas game are scary. Sac clearly mailed it in making the game almost a light workout for starters.
Thanks guys...


Kentucky +11 -110 (6x)made this just (5x)Loss -5.50
Long Beach +8 -110 (3x) made this just (1x) Loss -1.10
South Car +3.5 -110 (3x) ML +150 (1/2x) Loss -3.80

Looking at both the over @ Temple and @ Old Dom but waiting for halftime in both....Like Under in Kentucky & Clemson.

Memphis 1st H -15 -108 (3x) Win +3.00 (led by 17)
Minnesota -3 -113 (3x) PUSH blew a 15 pt late lead!!
StMarys +4 -102 (3x) Loss -3.06 in OT
NEastern ML -103 (1x)Win +1.00
West Mich +3 -110 (3x) SU WIN +3.00
Marshall +11 -110 (3x) Win +3.00
DePaul +9.5 -110 (4x) SU WIN +4.00
Georgia ML -115 (3x) WIn +3.00
UMass -2-113 (3x) Loss -3.39
Texas ML +133 (2x)Loss -2.00
Cincy -3 -112 (3x)Loss -3.36
Zona -7 -110 (4x) -7.5 -110 (3x) Win +7.00
Kansas State +3 -105(3x)Win +3.00
UPenn +3.5 -109 (3x) Loss -3.27
Youngstown State +9 -110 (2x)Loss -2.00
Georgetown +9.5 -110 (3x) Win +3.00
Drexel +3 -110 (3x) SU WIN+3.00
Over 154 -110 Providence (3x) Win +3.00
Over 144.5 -147 VCU (3x) Win +3.00
A&M -19 -110 (5x)Loss -5.50
Clev St +15.5 -110 (4x)Loss -4.40
Coppin State +18 -110 (3x) Win +3.00
StL +9 -110 (3x) PUSH
Over 109.5 -113 Stl (3x) Win+3.00

14-11-2 +8.67 UNITS

Should be all...GL

2nd Half (2-1-1)+1.84units

LBST -0.5 -116 (2x) Win +2.00 (36-31 2nd Half)
NEastern +2.5 -112 (2x) Win ML +148 (1x) Push
Minny -2 -108 (2x) Loss

New (4-1 +11.95units)

Richmond +5 -110 (6x) _+196 ML (2x) HEDGE 2nd H Marist -3-116 (3x) Loss -5.60 wow!! never trailed till OT!!

+2.5 -112 !st H (2x) ML +155 (1x) WINNER +3.55

North Dakota State +8 -112 1st half (2x) Win +2.00

Over 70.5 -108 Houston 1st H(4x)Win +4.00

Georgia -2.5 -110 2nd half (8x) Best play of the day! WINNER!!
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Feel like UNC could pull away inthe 2nd H so ML -245 (3x) to hedge

WIN +3.00
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So here is what I have been thinking:

Basically leans:

Sixers +5 & over 196

No side in NYK yet looking for it come off 3 & Over 204.5

Grizzlies -2 -110 & Played Over 183 - 110 Miami (5x)

Sac +8 & Over 189

Wiz +6 +101 & over 202.5 -105

Hou -6 & Under 181

Pacers +7.5 -110 & Over 212

Sonics +9.5 -105 & Under 202 total

LAC -2.5 -103 & Under 200 -105

GS -8 -110 & played Under 220.5 GS (3x)

Right now I just cant understand how the Bucks , Pacers , Wizards & Sonics are such big dogs...Jazz off a beating BUT they were +4.5 in Seattle and now -9.5 at home ???? Bulls & Wiz very similiar teams shouldnt be higher then -4 , Pacers and Bucks I believe being inflated dute to schedule....

Will be back....
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The NBA :

7: 30 start

Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 -104 probably will go +6 -115 ish..(5x) ML +215 (1/2x) 1st half ML +171 (1/2x)

WIN +4.00

Looking at the Over 96.5 -108 1st half but being patient

There will be some new faces in this game. Philly has start Forward Chris Webber back and honestly believe they nee him deperately cause AI is a ball hog and maybe even a diminishing star like Webber can pry the rock from AI's hands...he justdoesnt not allow anyone else to get into the flow of the game.....

The NJ Nets will get Eddie House and 1st Rounder Josh Boone back tonite, actually there debuts! How many minutes either gets and how effective a draft pick in his debut w/o training camp and shooter who hasnt played all year remain to be seen.

The Neys finally get some rest so fatigue will not be an issue but I still need this team to show me something...they dropped 6 straight and faded repeatedly in the 4th quarter but in Boston they reversed the trend. Philly had been 5-2 ATS away before dropping the cash in the past two..

Philly went 3-1 SU last year winning both in NJ and were 4 and 5 pt dogs inthose games...with the same teams basically I see some extra value now on them. I think Philly just has to many bodies in the post to deal with and will have an edge in the paint. I believe AI topped 40 in both @ Continental AIrlines Arena!

Should be a tight game decided late......While I did originally like the Under I now feel with some key players returning that benefits the offense and the OVER is the better play. Going to see the 1st H trends Or wait till half and check it then......Both games IN NY were very highly scoring last season...

Oh and alot more to come.....
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8 PM's

Grizzlies ML -116 (8x) thought it was odd vig moved up 6 bicks and the ML went down slightily reduced my play..

Over 183 -110 (5x) Ov 90.5 -119 1st H (2x)WIN

SHADY MOVE was RIGHT no way Memphis should have lost but they did so I was wrong! 1 Fucking Point makes this game -2.28 instead of +15.00

Line seems curious but remember Heat have been dogged on the road in places like Charlotte , NO and Atl. They were home dog to Det and Orlando. Memphis was also a dog to Orla nd Wiz at home but won both SU...I feel the correct line was -3 and the 'public/market' have created value in the home team. Grizz were favs early on to Char and NYK by 5 . Heat just 1-6 ATS on 1days rest while Memp are 3-1 ATS on 2 days rest..Wade avgs 20.8 in his career versus Memphis...

As for the total the Grizz have been topping 95 at home and there defense has slumped some since Eddie Jones went down...since I expect a close game I would expect Miami to be able to break 90....teams avg 194 and allow 195 in this situation...

Over 204.5 -107 NYK (7x)Loss -7.49

Again....120 pts at the half only 85 needed so I dont middle...83 2nd H points a swing of 14.50 Units!!!

Really NY has played poorly at home which will make this an interesting game versus Toronto...The Knicks in 7 at home have allowed at least 100 in 5 of them and 97 to Houston...I showed the numbers earlier in back to backs and well Tor allows 103 away... since the line seemed to move in NY's favor I would rather be on Tor here but no play at all...

Kings +8 -107 (3x) 1st Half ML +215(1x)

heavy lean towards the over 188.5 but will wait till half...

NET +2.00 Another game I had pegged but didnt cash in on see the TREND!

Was on the fence with this game but SA is not playing well and has been a bad favorite. So the fact the line looked abit cheap and got cheaper peaked my interest...fading SA as home chalk and riding Sac after an embarrassing loss...

These games tend to be high scoring in SA , little concerned this total is higher then the one set in SAC earlier. Last 4 away Kings have allowed 100 pts...a close game should be beneficial to the over...hate that I like 4 overs early though and passed on Philly over....
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Will not have a play on the Rockets & Cavs game. This line seems fat yet its holding up and it wouldnt be funny if the Rockets who cant cover a spread do so versus the one that seems the most off....8 pt win here vs Houston if anyone cares...... IMO

Wizards +6.5 -110 (9x) ML +225 (1x) 1st H +181 ML (1/2x)

I understand Wash is 0-7 away but explain this line??? The Bulls have won 3 straight against NYK (twice ) and NO with 3 players OUT!! They are both playing back to backs here. They both have played eachother alot in past seasons and really Chi was never more then -4 at home...The Wiz only caught 5 in Dallas and 7 in Houston suddenly the Bulls are in that category....

The over is so enticing but how is a total that saw one team score 121 and the other 111 going down...???? I gues the bulls 85 ppg allowed at home and Wiz 87 ppg scored away probably are more lean under here.......

Under 98.5 -112 1st Half (1x)

working on more.....

LOSS -13.02
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9 PM

Indiana +7 -103 (8x) ML +268 (1x)L

A tough spot for Indiana no doubt but thats why the shaded the line. Indiana is finally playing up to expectations and while fatigue could be an issue 4th in 5 nites there are also building positive momentum. Denver also played last nite in Minny so they are not rested either.. the highest number on this trip was +6 @ GS and they won SU..Nuggets are probably a point stronger then GS but remember GS line was to fat....Pacers 4-2 ATS on no rest while Denver 1-2 . The lone time they played away and came home this year games 1 and 2 in the season they lost the back end SU.

Nuggets have been poor home chalk losing SU to Memphis and NYK as 9 and 10 pt favs ,lost to Minny U and non cover vs memphis...

Thought about and under but 212 generally isnt high enough for me.....

Sonics +9.5 -110 (12x) ML +390 (1x) W

Have no explanation for this line whatsoever...I thought maybe -6.5 but this!!! SOnics 6-1-1 ATS away and were just laying 4.5 to Utah!! They havent played that well but they arent playing easy teams. Utah off an awful loss scares me some but I just dont see what I am missing.....

Sonics generally play well against Utah and have the size to match them down low..........

If it wasnt a 130 situation I would have played the over....

Late games in a bit but my leans from earlier remain!! GL

NET +1.76 another buzzer beater to loss the ML +400!!
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Well had the right call on the 1st Half Over in NJ but now I cant make any play on the total. So went Philly +2 -122(2x) WIN +2.00
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Same deal in SA as Philly had the right idea with the total but nada!

So now since they both shot 50++% and Sac could fade away..

Under 93.5 -113 (2x) L -2.26
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2nd half:

raptors +158 (1x) L -1.00 (1 freaking point)

Grizzlies -3.5 -108 (3x) Win +3.00

Net +2.00
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I hate myself....sometimes...should have been on HOUSTON

so now I am

Rockets +3.5 -115 (5x) WIN

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2nd H

Pacers +2 -121 (3x) L -3.63

Hedge Utah -3.5 -116 (2x) L -2.32

Under 102.3 -113 Utah (3x) L -3.39

This fucked me some.....-9.33
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Late starts:

Clippesr -2 -120 (8x)

Basically we get a line that makes no sense IMO. The LAL coming off there high of the season and we should expect some sort of letdown effect. However LAL already defeated LAC this year and were catching only 1.5 pts. So with whats going in LAL how come they are now 2.5???With revenge on there mind I have to side with the funny line.....they want Laker money here IMo.......

Under 200 -101 LAL (10x)

See Bet Crimes 130 theory......and then realize we have another adjustment ...from 192 in the 1st meeting to 200 now....thats what creates value....

Under 220.5 -110 GS (3x)

Thought we should have seen 216 now 220's ...overreaction to the SUns game last nite...

Bucks +8 -110 (5x) NO PLAY

maybe I am missing something with these lines and I understand teh situations completely.........JRich is ailing and the Warriors dont play defense......Milw seems to have turned the corner with solid games @ LAL and fatigue an issue??
It just amazes me time and time again......shady move downward on the ML while the spread goes up and the hets somehow manage an impossible win......does someone have the sports almanac!
Cause Indy was in the same spot as Milwaukee and they(the pacers) blew ASS so I basically decided to pass. Part of it was the line was to high and going higher......There is no way Chi , Den and GS should have been such big chalk yet the 1st 2 coasted.......just a line move I didnt like .....I got the Sonic game right but wrong in the 2nd half so I dont knwo what to say.....just frustrated by the fact I again have every game pegged and dont manage to hit like 75% of the plays...I barelt pay attention at CBB and manage to make 25 unist a nite lately......

2nd Half

LA Clippers -3 -113 (5x)
Warriors -5 -115 (7x)
LAC coming back here in the 3q...
i just hope ur wrong on your GSW analysis hehe...
so both of us can win