NBA 2026

[RBD]

Record: 0-0
(I think this is my first play. I'll double check and update if necessary.)

When an NBA coach knows he's playing back-to-back nights do his starters get less minutes in game one of B2B's?

Does he give a few extra minutes to his backups so his starters won't be so tired the next night?

Specifically for tonight, I'm thinking of Doug Christie.

Hell if I know.
I could spend some time researching it but really don't want to.
I don't like the sport.
Don't like the pompous players.
Don't like their woke coaches preaching at me on social issues.
Don't like their creepy looking commissioner who looks like a cross between a pedo and a serial killer.
Don't like betting it.
Really don't like watching it.
People think I'm joking when I said I'd rather watch the WNBA.
But I'm not.

So I don't do a lot with NBA, but if I see a possible edge I'll try it sometimes, and hope that reversion toward the mean doesn't kick in and screw me.

The Kings have played in B2B's eight times this season.
In game one they've gone Under in seven of the eight.
An exploitable coaching tendency?
Like I said, hell if I know, I don't really follow the sport. But this game's on the tube tonight so I went looking for an edge because I'm going to put a little small money, fun/action bet down.

(If anyone's looking for stats on the side, in game one of B2B's Sac is 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS.)

A couple houses have 231 but the WAN is 230', so that's what I'll use.

Sac/Phil Un 230'

Good luck with your play today...

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-0
Review: Rat Bastards were 1.3 seconds away from going into OT and screwing me, but Maxey saved me with a winning bucket.

NEXT!

Expanding on my last post's topic of Sacramento when they're playing B2B's:

In game two their Ov/Un record is 6-2.

The current number on tonight's game is 220 (and you can easily get that at reduced juice.)

Of the two games that stayed Under in game two of B2B's, the scores were 233 and 226, BOTH higher than tonight's number, and by an average of 9'.

Want more?

When playing in game two of B2B's the King's average game score is 234.
That's 14 points above tonight's number.

And one more thing, for those of you who are into the "Day of the Week" angle (example - some bettors feel a Friday night home crowd provides more energy then say a Monday crowd - the work week is behind them, the weekend is here, a lot of people have a new paycheck in their pocket, etc.):
Celtics games, at home, on Friday nights:
218, 231, 245, 242 points.

The only Friday night home game that didn't surpass tonight's number was the 218 versus Brooklyn. It fell short by just two points.

Boston is averaging 116 PPG this season.
Friday nights at home they've put up 105, 126, 129 and 125.
Three of the four are well above their season average.
(Yes, of course, the opponent they're playing has a lot to do with these numbers but as I said, I'm including the stats for 'cappers who like to factor in the day of the week angle. Sports betting is like chess - look at the board from EVERY angle.)

This one opened at 221'.
The WAN is currently 220 but a few houses have gone to 219' so no sense buying it right now since the line's moving in my favor.

And for anyone looking for stats on the side rather than the total, in game two of B2B Sacramento's 2-6 SU and ATS.
And 0-4 when game two is on the Rd. Like tonight.

Like last night, I'm going to ride the current edges and hope reversion toward the mean doesn't kick in yet.

Update #1: Total at 217/216' now, correct move on waiting. A buy back will probably come, but I'll wait a little bit longer.

Good move grabbing the spread early, -12/12' now

My plays:
Bos -11
Sac/Bos Ov (wait to buy)

 

[B.A.R.]

Well done last night.

Love getting some NBA write-ups!

Chime back in late night on this one.

Very interesting Friday night angle -- and this is the perfect opponent for it.

 

[RBD]

Thanks, B.A.R.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-1
Review: Last picks were Boston and Over.
Boston covered easily but they were so far ahead at halftime that both teams were slackers in the second half and couldn't get the total to go Over.

Didn't realize I hadn't been in here since January, will try and get in more often (but I'm not a big NBA guy.)

Tonight finds New Orleans in Game one 1 of B2B's (back-to-backs.)

Do some teams play their starters fewer minutes in a game when they know they're playing tomorrow night, too?
Does their average PPG on offense go down in Game one?
Hell if I know.
And I don't have time to get the answer.

But I do know this about the Pelicans (and what a lame name for a sports team; terrifying; "Oh no, the Pelicans are coming to town. What will we do??!!") - in game one their records are:
4-7 SU
6-5 ATS
and ...
3-8 Ov/Un

Guess which one I took tonight.

Looking for the edge to continue for another game.
My play:
NO/Sac Un 235

Good luck with your play today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-2

I'm going to try to catch a couple Game two of B2B trends before they start to level out.

In game two's Houston is 3-7 Ov/Un.
When game two is a Hm game they're 0-4 Ov/Un.
The Rockets are at home tonight.

Mia/Hou also qualifies as an Under for one of the two Ov/Un handicapping models I chart daily. It has a slight edge with a record of 29-24.

Atlanta in Game two is 4-7 both ATS and Ov/Un.
When game two is at Hm after playing on the Rd the previous night the Hawks are:
0-5 ATS
0-5 Ov/Un
The Hawks return Hm tonight after a Rd game last night.

My plays:
Mia/Hou Un 228
GS/Atl Un 228'
GS +9

Good luck with your play tonight...

Update: at halftime I'm looking at an 0'fer night.
The dangers of jumping on trends that are already established.
Down three units now.
I'll work to get them back one game at a time.

 

[B.A.R.]

Stick with it!

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-3
Record: 2-5
Review: Rare that I bet more than one or two games but had three plays I liked the last time I was in here. And . . .
Ugh.

Today I took Boston/Mil Over 216'.
From my own handicapping models I have play that's 52-38 on Overs, 57%.
That percentage looks good, but...
it was 46-24 early last month, so reversion Reversion Towards the Mean has come calling.

That 52-38 is a league-wide trend, it's for all NBA teams.
For a team-specific look, Boston is one game over .500 when they're in this spot, Milwaukee one game under .500, no edges there.

Head to head, these two have met three times.
They combined for just 186 points back in February (no Tatum), 189 in March (no Tatum or Giannis), both numbers far short of what I need tonight. The third game was back in December and it landed on 217 (no Tatum or Giannis), a hook more than I need tonight.

I do get a little help when looking at recent play.
Boston is just 2-3 Ov/Un in their last five games, Milwaukee is 3-2. But when applying tonight's number to their last five games Boston stays at 2-3 but Milwaukee is 5-0.

Like any game, the numbers could make a case for either side or Ov/Un, but I'll ride with my model tonight even though it's been off lately.

Hoping I can get a similar effort from Boston's offense as in their last game when they put up 147 (Tatum had a triple/double) and/or a similar effort from the defense, who gave up 129.

My play:
Bos/Mil Ov 216'.

Good luck with your plays tonight.

Update: I bought 216' before I stopped by to share my play. During the 20 minutes or so while I was writing this, double-checking stats, editing etc, the line jumped two points.
I'll use 218 for record purposes here since that's what anyone who wanted to buy it would be able to get by the time this was posted.