BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
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The overall ATS figures for the last 20 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 741-799-31 ....... -58
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 693-820-23 ....... -125
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.12% vs. 45.80% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where 5+ days of rest breaks up a team's road trip, or breaks up a team's return game/games, all normally applicable games following that break have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 188-202-11
As the Fav ..................................... 118-128-5
As the Dog ..................................... 70-74-6
vs. Conference teams ............. 121-127-10
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 67-75-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 83-83-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 38-44-5
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 35-45
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 32-30-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 218-220-11
As the Fav ..................................... 159-150-9
As the Dog ..................................... 59-70-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 129-127-8
vs. non-Conference teams .......... 89-93-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 88-84-7
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 41-43-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 71-66-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 18-27-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 104-141-6
Road game ........................................... 62-80-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 63-83-4
@Home as a Dog ................................. 41-58-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-21-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 46-59-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 72-83-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 32-58-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 53-72-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 9-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 42-52-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 30-31
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-31-3
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 11-27-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-20-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 38-52-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 8-7
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 143-162-5
Road game ......................................... 65-61-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 100-122-1
@Home as a Dog .................................. 43-40-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 19-12
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 46-49-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 90-106-5
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 53-56
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 42-52-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 23-9
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 64-80-4
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 26-26-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 36-42
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 17-14
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-11
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 29-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 6-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 17-8
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall .............................................. 164-187-3
As the Fav ........................................ 106-126-3
As the Dog ........................................ 58-61
vs. Conference teams ................. 102-111-1
vs. non-Conference teams .......... 62-76-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 66-72-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 36-39
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 40-54-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 22-22
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ............................................... 171-190-6
As the Fav ......................................... 113-138-4
As the Dog ......................................... 58-52-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 100-110-1
vs. non-Conference teams ........... 71-80-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 62-73-2
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 38-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 51-65-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 20-15-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 118-108-5
Road game ....................................... 51-67-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 78-73-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 40-35-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 18-11-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 33-56
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 74-76-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 44-32-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 44-61-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 7-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 52-54-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 22-22-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 26-19-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 18-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 14-10-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 30-51
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 3-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 108-140-2
Road game ........................................... 42-61-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 74-89-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 34-51
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-16
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 28-45-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 70-91-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 38-49
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 35-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-7-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 46-53-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 24-38
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 28-36
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 10-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 23-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 20 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.38%
Split results ..... 48.57%
Lose both ...... 29.05%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 20 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.87%
Split results ..... 46.87%
Lose both ...... 30.26%
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
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The overall ATS figures for the last 20 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 741-799-31 ....... -58
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 693-820-23 ....... -125
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.12% vs. 45.80% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Please note:
(1) Where 5+ days of rest breaks up a team's road trip, or breaks up a team's return game/games, all normally applicable games following that break have been excluded.
(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
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Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 188-202-11
As the Fav ..................................... 118-128-5
As the Dog ..................................... 70-74-6
vs. Conference teams ............. 121-127-10
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 67-75-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 83-83-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 38-44-5
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 35-45
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 32-30-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 218-220-11
As the Fav ..................................... 159-150-9
As the Dog ..................................... 59-70-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 129-127-8
vs. non-Conference teams .......... 89-93-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 88-84-7
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 41-43-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 71-66-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 18-27-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 104-141-6
Road game ........................................... 62-80-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 63-83-4
@Home as a Dog ................................. 41-58-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-21-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 46-59-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 72-83-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 32-58-5
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 53-72-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 9-8
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 42-52-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 30-31
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-31-3
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 11-27-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-20-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 38-52-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 8-7
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 143-162-5
Road game ......................................... 65-61-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 100-122-1
@Home as a Dog .................................. 43-40-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 19-12
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 46-49-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 90-106-5
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 53-56
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 42-52-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 23-9
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 64-80-4
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 26-26-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 36-42
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 17-14
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-11
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 29-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 6-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 17-8
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall .............................................. 164-187-3
As the Fav ........................................ 106-126-3
As the Dog ........................................ 58-61
vs. Conference teams ................. 102-111-1
vs. non-Conference teams .......... 62-76-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 66-72-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 36-39
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 40-54-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 22-22
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ............................................... 171-190-6
As the Fav ......................................... 113-138-4
As the Dog ......................................... 58-52-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 100-110-1
vs. non-Conference teams ........... 71-80-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 62-73-2
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 38-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 51-65-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 20-15-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 118-108-5
Road game ....................................... 51-67-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 78-73-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 40-35-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 18-11-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 33-56
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 74-76-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 44-32-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 44-61-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 7-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 52-54-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 22-22-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 26-19-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 18-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 14-10-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 30-51
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 3-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 108-140-2
Road game ........................................... 42-61-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 74-89-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 34-51
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-16
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 28-45-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 70-91-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 38-49
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 35-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-7-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 46-53-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 24-38
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 28-36
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 10-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 23-41-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 20 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.38%
Split results ..... 48.57%
Lose both ...... 29.05%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 20 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.87%
Split results ..... 46.87%
Lose both ...... 30.26%
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