NBA 2013-14 Season Post-Road Trip ATS Results

[BetCrimes1984]

I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own homecourt) was in their first game back home.

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures for the last 10 seasons are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 344-370-19 .......... -26

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 301-404-15 ........ -103


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 46.49% vs 41.81% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 85-96-6


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 55-59-4
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 30-37-2

vs Conference teams ..................... 54-61-6
vs non-Conference teams ............... 31-35


vs Conf teams as a Fav ...............................<wbr>.. 39-37-4
vs Conf teams as a Dog ...............................<wbr>. 15-24-2

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 16-22
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 15-13


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 98-99-8


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 72-74-7
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 26-25-1

vs Conference teams ..................... 61-58-5
vs non-Conference teams ............... 37-41-3


vs Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 41-45-5
vs Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 20-13

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 31-29-2
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 6-12-1

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ...............................<wbr>... 40-66-3
Road game ...............................<wbr>.... 34-40-1


@Home as a Fav ........................... 24-43-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 16-23-1

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 11-7-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 23-33


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 31-38-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............. 9-28-2

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 31-37-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 3-3


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 18-25-1
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog .................... 13-13

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 6-18-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 3-10-1

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ............... 11-7-1
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .............. 20-30

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... ----
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 3-3


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>... 60-86-4
Road game ..............................<wbr>.... 28-23-1


@Home as a Fav .......................... 42-65-3
@Home as a Dog ......................... 18-21-1

on the Road as a Fav ...................... 7-4
on the Road as a Dog ................... 21-19-1


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 39-63-4
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 21-23

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 16-20-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ...... 12-3


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 26-48-3
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog .................... 13-15-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 16-17
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 5-6

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 4-4
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .............. 12-16-1

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 3-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 9-3

-------------------------------<wbr>-----------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 71-96-1


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 44-72-1
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 27-24

vs Conference teams ..................... 52-63
vs non-Conference teams ............... 19-33-1


vs Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 34-47
vs Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 18-16

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 10-25-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 9-8


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ..............................<wbr>........... 90-79-4


As the Fav ..............................<wbr>...... 57-62-2
As the Dog ..............................<wbr>..... 33-17-2

vs Conference teams ..................... 54-48-2
vs non-Conference teams .............. 36-31-2


vs Conf teams as a Fav ..............................<wbr>... 29-34-1
vs Conf teams as a Dog ..............................<wbr>.. 25-14-1

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 28-28-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ........................... 8-3-1

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>.... 51-48-3
Road game ..............................<wbr>..... 24-40


@Home as a Fav ........................... 29-36-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 22-12-1

on the Road as a Fav ....................... 7-6
on the Road as a Dog .................... 17-34


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 29-36-3
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 22-12

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 23-37
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 1-3


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 17-29-2
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog .................... 12-7-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 12-7
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 10-5

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 7-5
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog .............. 16-32

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 0-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 1-2


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..............................<wbr>... 38-64-2
Road game ..............................<wbr>.... 26-37-1


@Home as a Fav .......................... 27-44-2
@Home as a Dog ......................... 11-20

on the Road as a Fav ...................... 8-10
on the Road as a Dog ................... 18-27-1


@Home vs Conf teams ................. 22-44-2
@Home vs non-Conf teams ........... 16-20

on the Road vs Conf teams ........... 20-34-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ....... 6-3


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 17-28-2
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 5-16

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 10-16
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 6-4

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 7-9
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ............... 13-25-1

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 1-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 5-2

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 1st game back as a Dog vs Conf Teams ........................ 45-27-1

West - 2nd game back on the Road vs non-Conf teams ............. 18-6

West - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs Conf Teams ............ 43-76-5


East - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs Conf Teams ............. 35-54-3

East - 2nd game back on the Road as a Dog vs Conf teams ....... 36-62

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 10 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.02%
Lose both ........ 31.61%
Split results ..... 46.37%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 10 seasons)
Win both ......... 23.35%
Lose both ........ 33.53%
Split results ..... 43.12%


While the above figures betray the fact that split results are most prevalent result combination when considering all results as a whole, how teams perform in their 1st game back is important to note: For the 4 seasons results I still have immediately to hand (due to the site crash, but it's still a sizable enough stat pool to provide a significant indicator)...

...Teams who won their 1st game back, lost their 2nd game at a 53.97% ATS rate

...Teams who lost their 1st game back, lost their 2nd game at a 65.62% ATS rate

The above tendencies clearly betray the fact that teams who lose their 1st game back play even more heavily into the notion of being faded in their 2nd game off these 4+ game road trips, whereas teams who win their 1st game back play slightly less heavily into losing their 2nd game back off 4+ gasme road trips (the overall norm is a 58.20% losing rate for 2nd games back).

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[BetCrimes1984]

Post tracking 2013-14's 1st/2nd game back results

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>----------

Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the below figures are the 4 & 5+ game stats combined)...


Teams in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 10 seasons -

Denver ............ 18-5
Golden State .... 25-11-3
New York ......... 15-6-1
Memphis .......... 15-7-1

Yes, the Nuggets have only lost at a 21.7% rate over the last 10 seasons.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 10 seasons -

Oklahoma .......... 6-18
Toronto ............. 7-17-1
Miami .............. 10-18
Portland ........... 12-18-1

These 4 teams are a combined 35-71-2 ATS in their 2nd games back off 4+ game road trips
the last 10 seasons, an ATS win rate of just 32.4%.


Teams bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 10 seasons -

Washington ........ 7-13
Boston................ 9-16-2
Portland ........... 11-19-1

Washington is 3-7 ATS in this spot over the last 5 seasons.


Team with the most noteworthy 2nd game record over the last 10 seasons -

Memphis .......... 14-9

----------------------------------------------------------------------
These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when thats a pick'em, the home team is made a -0.5 Fav).

November

UTH off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs DEN - Lost
13th - Home Dog vs NOR - Won

GDS off a 4 game trip
12th - Home Fav vs DET - Won
14th - Home Fav vs OKC - Lost

DET off a 4 game trip
19th - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
20th - Road Dog vs ATL - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
22nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost
23rd - Road Dog vs GDS - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
22nd - Home Dog vs SAS - Lost
25th - Home Dog vs HOU - Lost

December

NYK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs NOR - Lost
5th - Road Dog vs BRK - Won

CHC off a 6 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs NOR - Lost
5th - Home Dog vs MIA - Won

GDS off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fav vs TOR - Won
6th - Road Dog vs HOU - Lost

IND off a 5 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs MIA - Won
13th - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

ORL off a 6 game trip
13th - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost
15th - Road Dog vs OKC - Won

DEN off a 6 game trip
13th - Home Fav vs UTH - Lost
15th - Home Fav vs NOR - Won

MIA off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost
16th - Home Fav vs UTH - Won

DAL off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fav vs MIL - Won
18th - Home Fav vs MEM - Won

LAC off a 7 game trip
16th - Home Dog vs SAS - Won
18th - Home Fav vs NOR - Won

LAK off a 4 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs MIN - Won
21st - Road Dog vs GDS - Lost

SAS off a 4 game trip
21st - Home Fav vs OKC - Lost
23rd - Home Fav vs TOR - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
21st - Home Fav vs NOR - Lost
26th - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fav vs NOR - Lost
27th - Home Dog vs MIA - Won

NOR off a 5 game trip
27th - Home Fav vs DEN - Won
28th - Road Dog vs HOU - Lost

UTH off a 5 game trip
27th - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost
28th - Road Dog vs LAC - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fav vs DET - Won
30th - Road Dog vs DET - Won

TOR off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
31st - Road Dog vs CHC - Won

January

MIA off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost
4th - Road Fav vs ORL - Won

PHI off a 6 game trip
6th - Home Dog vs MIN - Lost
7th - Road Dog vs CLE - Lost

NYK off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs DET - Won
9th - Home Dog vs MIA - Won

CHA off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
10th - Road Dog vs MIN - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
10th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

GDS off a 7 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs BOS - Lost
15th - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost

BOS off a 5 game trip
13th - Home Dog vs HOU - Lost
15th - Home Dog vs TOR - Won

ORL off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Dog vs CHC - Won
17th - Home Dog vs CHA - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost
17th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
16th - Home Dog vs OKC - Lost
18th - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost

CLE off a 5 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost
22nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost

MIA off a 6 game trip
21st - Home Fav vs BOS - Lost
23rd - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost
25th - Home Fav vs MIN - Won

SAC off a 6 game trip
24th - Home Dog vs IND - Won
26th - Home Dog vs DEN - Lost

LAK off a 7 game trip
28th - Home Dog vs IND - Lost
31st - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

LAC off a 7 game trip
29th - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
30th - Road Dog vs GDS - Lost

MIN off a 4 game trip
29th - Home Fav vs NOR - Won
31st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost

IND off a 5 game trip
30th - Home Fav vs PHX - Lost
1st - Home Fav vs BRK - Lost

February

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs OKC - Won
3rd - Home Dog vs POR - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHA - Won
4th - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Dog vs SAS - Lost
11th - Home Dog vs DAL - Won

TOR off a 5 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs NOR - Lost
12th - Home Fav vs ATL - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fav vs OKC - Lost
12th - Road Dog vs LAC - Won

CHC off a 6 game trip
11th - Home Fav vs ATL - Won
13th - Home Fav vs BRK - Won

NYK off a 4 game trip
24th - Home Dog vs DAL - Won
27th - Road Dog vs MIA - Lost

BOS off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fav vs ATL - Won
1st - Home Dog vs IND - Won

March

HOU off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DET - Lost
4th - Home Dog vs MIA - Won

ORL off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Won
5th - Home Dog vs HOU - Lost

BRK off a 7 game trip
3rd - Home Fav vs CHC - Won
5th - Home Fav vs MEM - Won

MIN off a 5 game trip
5th - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost
7th - Home Fav vs DET - Won

NOR off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs MIL - Push
9th - Home Fav vs DEN - Won

GDS off a 6 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs ATL - Won
9th - Home Fav vs PHX - Lost

UTH off a 6 game trip
10th - Home Dog vs ATL - Lost
12th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

ATL off a 6 game trip
13th - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost
15th - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost

POR off a 5 game trip
16th - Home Dog vs GDS - Won
18th - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost

DEN off a 5 game trip
17th - Home Dog vs LAC - Won
19th - Home Fav vs DET - Won

SAC off a 7 game trip
18th - Home Dog vs WAS - Won
21st - Home Dog vs SAS - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Dog vs POR - Won
28th - Home Dog vs CHA - Won

DET off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost
28th - Home Dog vs MIA - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Fav vs PHX - Lost
28th - Home Dog vs IND - Won

MIL off a 4 game trip
27th - Home Fav vs LAK - Won
29th - Home Dog vs MIA - Lost

POR off a 5 game trip
30th - Home Fav vs MEM - Won
1st - Road Fav vs LAK - Won

April

NYK off a 5 game trip
2nd - Home Fav vs BRK - Won
4th - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost

LAC off a 5 game trip
3rd - Home Fav vs DAL - Lost
6th - Home Fav vs LAK - Won

MEM off a 5 game trip
4th - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost
6th - Road Dog vs SAS - Lost

DAL off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs SAS - Lost
12th - Home Fav vs PHX - Lost

OKC off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fav vs NOR - Won
13th - Road Dog vs IND - Lost

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall results for the 2013-14 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ...... 17-17
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ..... 18-16

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 13-21-1
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 15-20

Combined Results

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 30-38-1
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 33-36
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[BetCrimes1984]

As usual, the schedule makers have seen fit to be cruel to a number of teams: 8 teams play their 1st 2 games back off 4+ game road trips in a B2B sequence.


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B, off 1 day's rest since their trip's end

DET off a 4 game trip
19th Nov. - Home vs NYK - Won
20th Nov. - Away vs ATL* - Lost

*Last 10 seasons: Eastern teams playing a 2nd game back on the Road as a Dog vs Conf teams have gone 36-62 ATS. So their spot here is usually bad enough results wise anyway, let alone being played without any rest. Little doubt DET should be dogged here.

POR off a 4 game trip
22nd Nov. - Home vs CHC - Lost
23rd Nov. - Away vs GDS - Won

PHI off a 6 game trip
6th Jan. - Home vs MIN - Lost
7th Jan. - Away vs CLE - Lost

LAC off a 7 game trip
29th Jan. - Home vs WAS - Lost
30th Jan. - Road vs GDS - Lost


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B, off 2 days rest since their trip's end

LAK off a 4 game trip
20th Dec. - Home vs MIN - Won
21st Dec. - Away vs GDS - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
11th Feb. - Home vs OKC* - Lost
12th Feb. - Away vs LAC - Won


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B, off 3 days rest since their trip's end

UTH off a 5 game road trip
27th Dec. - Home vs LAK - Lost
28th Dec. - Away vs LAC - Won

NOR off a 5 game trip
27th Dec. - Home vs DEN - Won
28th Dec. - Away vs HOU - Lost

<wbr><wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

There's one other team with a particularly brutal scheduling sequence that caps off a 4 game road trip, but which doesn't involve their 1st 2 games back being playing B2B.

New Orleans
_7th Jan. - last game of a 4 game road trip, @Miami.... - Lost
_8th Jan. - 1st game back, @home vs Washington....... - Lost
10th Jan. - 2nd game back, @home vs Dallas.............. - Lost
11th Jan. - back on the road, @Dallas......................... - Won

I have to think - given it's hard enough for good teams, let alone bad ones, to win both games ATS of a home-&-home set - that chasing Dallas ATS in the 2nd game back spot & (if nec.) the 4th-in-5 spot is going to produce a profit. (In fact I think looking at the 4 games above that Nawlins goes 2-2 ATS at best = possible chase against them over the entire stretch.)

------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------------------------

 

[theking]

:cheers:

 

[eggman]

Nice work, now who wants to do the work to list the dates of the trips listed above? I might be able to do some, just to make it easier for others....

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Nice work, now who wants to do the work to list the dates of the trips listed above? I might be able to do some, just to make it easier for others....

Dates inserted:shake:

 

[edou1x]

Interesting fact that Eastern teams are 156-192 ATS for their First Game back after road trip (45,8%) and 42,5% ATS on 5 days road trip. Is is due to the fact that jet lag is tougher to recover whan you travel to the west and go back to east than the opposite?

 

[linewatcher]

BC, golden stuff as usual. May I ask a favor, though? May you please add the exceptions and prime examples to these rules? ie. Teams who do exceptionally well after returning home from a long road trip (Memphis), and Teams who fall perfectly into these angles (Miami coming home after a long road trip is brutal ATS-wise). Thanks, bud.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

linewatcher - I failed to include those stats I usually had appear last in the 1st post's stat lists because I thought with the team changes having taken place over the long span of seasons I've been keeping these records would mean the bulk of those (now dating) stats falling into irrelevancy (for instance, Boston stood out in 1 spot, but obv. those stats - the majority made with the Big-3 in place - must surely be viewed as irrelevant with that team now having been blown up). But if you don't think that's the case, or would simply like to know anyway, I can copy & paste them in (thou I should add, it's not for all teams. Just those with the best & worst 1st & 2nd game back records).

 

[linewatcher]

yes, please. I tend to think teams continue to behave the same throughout situations, regardless of players.

 

[linewatcher]

Thank you much, sir.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

np:cheers:

 

[thatsagoodone]

So tonight take portland?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

GS not having their ace & being B2B themselves makes is a bit harder to opt for them, tago, but I'd still view it as GS or no play (the latter from my pov, got live stuff for it anyway).

 

[thatsagoodone]

So Houston tonight? Sorry I feel like I don't quite understand the system, but looking at the percentages I wanna know it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

So Houston tonight? Sorry I feel like I don't quite understand the system, but looking at the percentages I wanna know it.

(edit: sorry, w/out looking thought Mem was a Fav)

Regarding using the info in this thread, I view it this way: when you cap an individual game, you're obv. going to find things for and against most teams. Ideally the games you choose to bet on are the ones where you find more things for 1 team and many less for the other. After you've done that work, then you find out this '2nd game back' spot applies to a certain team. If you've already capped the game and found more things are going for their opponent than the team this spot applies to, then this spot is something I'd view as sealing the deal re choosing to bet them. If Houston has matched up badly with Memphis in the recent past (without looking, I don't know: they may have lost 6+ straight to them) and there's no other immediate concerns for Memphis (injuries, etc), then I wouldn't view this spot as enough of a factor in and of itself to counter such realities. It's an important capping factor not to ignore, but, barring certain situations - like a team playing their 2nd game back in a B2B situation, having just come off a 7 game road trip, something bound to test any team's mental fortitude - it's not something to make a bet on solely in and of itself. Get a lot of ducks lined up, not just 1 big duck or 2.

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

solid work as always bc.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

:shake:

 

[sinkhole]

I wonder how good they are ATS when the other team is playing b2b like cavs and bucks today?

 

[pip2]

Statute of limitations

Thanks for all your work BC. Is there any kind of "statute of limitations" for these situations? I'm thinking that for every day off a team gets between it's last away game and it's first (or second) game back home, one would expect less of an effect? When would it be expected that the effect becomes negligible, then? After 4 days off? 5 days off?

Also, this year's results are showing a heavy skew toward split (ATS) results, with few of the next 2 games back being double losses or double wins. (Even the Portland game last night could be seen as a split if you bet POR at -3.5 last night.) Is this just a temporary aberration that will probably soon correct itself?

I actually bet on SA to beat the spread against TOR the other day, based in part on the fact that they didn't win ATS the previous game. That bet won on a fluke, unnecessary late game three-pointer by the Spurs...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

pip2 - I haven't excluded any results based on any inordinate amount of days off between a trip's end & the 1st home game back. Exceedingly rare for that to be more than 3 days break, not enough exceptions to weed them out. And fwiw, I think the more of a break a team gets, the more it likely hurts them. A team is bound to feel more relaxed when it get backs home, esp. off a longer trip - that kind of *finally we're here* sensation - so the more they get to smoke spliffs and bang their hoes without having to play, the more inertia I can see being present to affect their performance when they do finally take the court (depending on the results of that trip, of course. No matter what a team's spot is their 1st game back, I'm never keen to fade a team that got hammered & and is looking to right its image/ego in front of home fans).

As fo the nature of the results this season, I too have been caught by the fact that so many split results have occurred (almost 75% after 17 trips). As the season wears on & the freshness of the players starts to fade, I'd guess the amount of loss-loss combos is surely bound to rise (as well as win-wins, when good teams jostling for playoff positions get a combo of opponents whose seasons are dying and their own motivation isn't all that).

 

[pip2]

OK! I'm doing another test tonight. Operating on the supposition that Utah, having just finished 5 games on the road, will win one and blow one against the spread, and given that their second game after finishing the road trip is against the Clippers (in L.A), and I am playing another system that says the Clippers will cover the spread against Utah on the 28th, so therefore the chances are Utah doesn't cover the spread tonight against the Lakers...(the other system says that the Clippers will cover the spread because they lost 2 games back to back and then have a day's rest before playing Utah).

So, kind of a stretch, but I'm betting on Utah to cover a -4 spread tonight...

 

[pip2]

OK, that didn't work too well...

 

[pip2]

Actually, it looks like Utah split after all. Just not in the order I figured on. I'm trying again tonight, with a unit on Detroit, playing vs. Washington. Washington won its first game back from a 4-game trip, so it should lose ATS tonight...

 

[pip2]

Ouch! OK, another unit on Chicago to beat Toronto, who beat the Knicks ATS in its first game after a 4 away...

 

[pip2]

OK, at this point we are going for broken-clock style winning percentage: one more unit on Miami to cover a 9 point spread vs Orlando. 2 days ago vs Golden State, Miami lost (both ATS and SU) its first game back from a 4-game trip...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Glad to see you won, pip, but it would seem you're betting into the 'split' situation at the wrong time - that being, the moment a statistical correction is 'due' upon us. Looking at the results as they stand as of this moment -

Splits ...... 17 .. = 73.91% vs. (last 10 seasons) 'historical' avg of 43-46 odd%
2 wins ..... 4 ... = 17.39% vs. (last 10 seasons) 'historical' avg of 22-23 odd%
2 losses ... 2 ... = _8.70% vs. (last 10 seasons) 'historical' avg of 31-33 odd%

I've combined the averages here for ease of reference (where in post #2 of this thread I've separated 4 game trip stats from 5+ ones), but the point isn't lost because of that. The win-win situation really isn't that much out of kilter at a 5-6% difference, it's obv. the teams losing 1st games going on to win their 2nd games which is clearly the outlier making itself felt.


January is heavy on the 5+ game trips (11 left vs. only 5 4-game trips), I'd suggest that fact plays into the loss-loss percentages getting bumped up sooner rather than later. The current split percentages would put me off betting into that situation for awhile, at least until it dropped down to being within at least 20 points of 'the norm' (L10 seasons).

 

[pip2]

Thanks BC. Like you say, if a team loses its first game back, there would be good reason to expect it to lose the second game as well, both from the correction standpoint and from the increased weariness from longer road trips and accumulated wear and tear of the ongoing season.

Has it been like this every season, with the 5+ road trips coming heavy in January, or are the longer January road trips just specific for this season?

 

[pip2]

I went back and added up the home ATS records of all the teams on the list that have played so far. I tossed out pushes, and the numbers I came up either were 156-216 for the combined teams. So in general, these teams from the list who have played so far lose at home ATS 58% of the time. But for these specific situations, returning from road trips, these teams are only losing 17/35 or 48% of the home games they play within 2 games of returning from a long road trip.

So this particular set of teams, during this particular window of time, appears to be over-achieving...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Has it been like this every season, with the 5+ road trips coming heavy in January, or are the longer January road trips just specific for this season?

More a specific observation, pip. No guarantees, of course. These 'wayward' results might continue for the whole season, and it turns out to be 'one of those years'. I wouldn't expect it (re my 2nd paragraph of my 12-27 post), but that doesn't mean to say it's not possible, obv.

 

[nbafan88]

regarding the 2nd game on the road trend...

my view is that it would be a lot worse if the 2nd game on the road is on a b2b.... like philly is tomorrow

philly's situation is a prime example


5 game roadie (6 straight road games but im assuming the team came back home for xmas since they had 6 days off)

@ Phoenix on 12/28
@ LAL on 12/29
@ Denver on 1/1
@ Kings on 1/2
@ Portland on 1/4

one day off

home vs Minny on 1/6

b2b @ Cleveland on 1/7

just awful... and what makes it even worse is that the team has no backbone, no hopes, no aspirations... hopefully get a good line on the cavs

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Think you might've missed reading post #4, nba.

 

[nbafan88]

Yep I did. Thanks boss

 

[smh212]

Another factor to consider is a teams bench. The Sixers were a prime bet against after their trip, because they have no bench at all.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

January is heavy on the 5+ game trips (11 left vs. only 5 4-game trips), I'd suggest that fact plays into the loss-loss percentages getting bumped up sooner rather than later. The current split percentages would put me off betting into that situation for awhile, at least until it dropped down to being within at least 20 points of 'the norm' (L10 seasons).

Since I made that post, this sequence of results has followed -

PHI off a 6 game trip
6th - Home Dog vs MIN - Lost
7th - Road Dog vs CLE - Lost

NYK off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs DET - Won
9th - Home Dog vs MIA - Won

CHA off a 5 game trip
7th - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
10th - Road Dog vs MIN - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
10th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

GDS off a 7 game trip
10th - Home Fav vs BOS - Lost
15th - Home Fav vs DEN - Lost

BOS off a 5 game trip
13th - Home Dog vs HOU - Lost
15th - Home Dog vs TOR - Won

ORL off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Dog vs CHC - Won
17th - Home Dog vs CHA - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost
17th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
16th - Home Dog vs OKC - Lost
18th - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost

Overall: 2 split results vs. 7 repeat results (reducing the split results percentages for the season so far to ), and 6 repeat losses to 3 other results.

What was...

Splits ...... 17 .. = 73.91% vs. (last 10 seasons) avg. of 43-46 odd%
2 wins ..... 4 ... = 17.39% vs. (last 10 seasons) avg. of 22-23 odd%
2 losses ... 2 ... = _8.70% vs. (last 10 seasons) avg. of 31-33 odd%

is now

Splits ...... 19.. = 59.38%
2 wins ..... 5 ... = 15.62%
2 losses ... 8 ... = 25.00%


Statistical regression of split results arrived right on cue.

 

[nbafan88]

If you look at the 2nd game back from road trips playing at home.... for eastern conference teams playing against western conference teams..

I really dont understand how the records can be so different between 4 game road trips & 5+ game road trips... its soooooooooo strange that there are winning records shown for 5+ game road trips but a horrendous 9-28 ats for the 4 game RT scenario

 

[edou1x]

@Betcrimes: Have you tried to check if similar results apply to NHL, over let's say last 5 seasons?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I had a quick look at the time, edou1x, but I found no immediate comparison. Of course that's not to say there isn't (& the couple of seasons I looked at just happened to be on the 'softer' end of the spectrum of such results).

 

[edou1x]

perhaps you should divide the road games (4/5++) into road trip in the same conference or the opposite conference or a mix trip. cause if a team goes on a road trip with all teams coming from opposite conference there will be more jet lag to recover from. perhaps you can notice it it's easier to recover going from East to west or goinf from West to east.

 

[pip2]

Belated thanks

Since I made that post, this sequence of results has followed -




Overall: 2 split results vs. 7 repeat results (reducing the split results percentages for the season so far to ), and 6 repeat losses to 3 other results.

What was...

Splits ...... 17 .. = 73.91% vs. (last 10 seasons) avg. of 43-46 odd%
2 wins ..... 4 ... = 17.39% vs. (last 10 seasons) avg. of 22-23 odd%
2 losses ... 2 ... = _8.70% vs. (last 10 seasons) avg. of 31-33 odd%

is now

Splits ...... 19.. = 59.38%
2 wins ..... 5 ... = 15.62%
2 losses ... 8 ... = 25.00%


Statistical regression of split results arrived right on cue.

I forgot to thank you for talking me back from the ledge on my "split" theory. And thanks again for this thread. It's the first thing I check each betting day, to make sure I'm not mortgaging my condo to bet on a team that just played 7 games out on the road. Somehow I can look right at the schedule for a team and fail to see that fact, so the list in this thread is like a safety valve for me...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

pip2:shake:

 

[pip2]

Another proposition

pip2:shake:

Hey BC, just wanted to run a proposition by you and see if you think it would work: goofing around with the results this year, I am coming up with 16-10-13-7; teams lost-won 13 times, won-lost 10 times, lost-lost 13 times, and won-won 7 times. Out of a sample of 46, the teams in this situation lost at least one game ATS 39 times.

So how about a shortened chase-type approach where, for each of these situations, a bettor fades the team for a unit, and then if the team doesn't lose that game the bettor fades the team on the 2nd game for 2 units? Done.

This year, so far with that approach, the splits and double losses would have yielded 39 units, while the double wins would have cost 7 * 3 = 21 units, for a net gain of 18 units.

Do you think that kind of net gain could be expected in general, or has it just been kind of a weird year this year?

edit: oops, I guess you would also lose approximately 2.1 units of vig along with the 21 lost, so net gain would have been 16 units...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Hey BC, just wanted to run a proposition by you and see if you think it would work: goofing around with the results this year, I am coming up with 16-10-13-7; teams lost-won 13 times, won-lost 10 times, lost-lost 13 times, and won-won 7 times. Out of a sample of 46, the teams in this situation lost at least one game ATS 39 times.

So how about a shortened chase-type approach where, for each of these situations, a bettor fades the team for a unit, and then if the team doesn't lose that game the bettor fades the team on the 2nd game for 2 units? Done.

This year, so far with that approach, the splits and double losses would have yielded 39 units, while the double wins would have cost 7 * 3 = 21 units, for a net gain of 18 units.

Do you think that kind of net gain could be expected in general, or has it just been kind of a weird year this year?

edit: oops, I guess you would also lose approximately 2.1 units of vig along with the 21 lost, so net gain would have been 16 units...

In answer to your query, I'd refer back to the general stats in post #2 -

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 10 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.02%
Lose both ........ 31.61%
Split results ..... 46.37%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 10 seasons)
Win both ......... 23.35%
Lose both ........ 33.53%
Split results ..... 43.12%

Off all road trips combined, teams have won both games roughly 22.5/23% of the time (the last 10 seasons). At the moment for this season (as your numbers indicate, I haven't double checked them), 7 out of 46 instances is only 15.2% of the time - so immediately the observation must be that, for whatever reason there's been a downturn in double-win results, so the current percentags you're referring to can't be expected to be used as any sort of base to extrapolate on re future results. If anything, some sort of regression is in order over coming fixtures which will see that 15% approach the end-of-season norm of 22.5/23%.

But that said, if you can work out the worst possible % you could endure double-wins presenting themselves and still make out breaking even in pursuing such a chase, and that number is significantly over the 'norm' of 23%, then obv. I'd say why not do it (I'm literally about to hit the sack, my brain isn't in the right mode to do the work myself)?

 

[pip2]

Yeah sorry about that BC, I realized in the middle of the night that you had already provided the statistics to cover that idea up at the top of the post. Kind of a slim margin, I guess. Using 23%, you would be losing 3x23=69 units (plus 7 units of vig), around 76 units, and making 77 units...

 

[CASH]

if i read this correctly (can't always trust my old eyes), warriors in a tough spot sunday night vs suns, do to the trend and they have lost 2x this season on the 2nd game of this situation?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

if i read this correctly (can't always trust my old eyes), warriors in a tough spot sunday night vs suns, do to the trend and they have lost 2x this season on the 2nd game of this situation?

You would be correct, given that's this spot -

West - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs Conf Teams ............ 43-76-5 ATS

But as I've said numerous times before, this is just 1 (if not unimportant) angle to bring to capping the game. If you dig into the contest and find "everything else" lines up for GS, then I wouldn't see this as being enough to overturn all those pointers suggesting you're better off going with them (or leaving the game alone altogether). If, however, mostly everything else you find lines up for PHX, then this 2nd game back angle I'd see as being the emphatic icing on the cake.

 

[CASH]

curious if you had any stats for totals coming off road trips.. kings after 7 road games are at home tomorrow night vs the Wiz (their 1st of 4 on the road)

 

[BetCrimes1984]

When I first collated these stats, I recorded all the total results as well as the ATS results before sifting through each set to see if there was any noticable trends/patterns. As far as the totals went, there was none of any kind I could discern.

 

[CASH]

thanks for checking !!