NBA 2008-09, Week 1 thread...

brewers7

brewers7

Pretty much a regular
Ok, Final tallies from the Preseason (posted daily at another forum -- I won't mention which one, but I will post here, too, this regular season):

Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395
All picks: 62-41-2
#1 picks: 12-7

Bets: 83.3%
#1's: 63.2%
ALL: 60.2%

Do NOT hold me to these percentages as the Preseason is a small sample compared to the regular season...
----------------------------------------------------------------------

My time is severely limited compared to past seasons, but I plan to post every day, unless I get my ass handed to me, at which time I'll stop posting, because posting non-stop losers does nobody any good...But I will attempt to go wire-to-wire, through the inevitable cold streaks...

And since that is the plan, well, it should be a LEARNING experience for people who are new to betting...And by new, I mean anyone betting for less than 5 years...

So I want to cover all the bases in terms of guiding folks through the best way to bet games through an ENTIRE season and hopefully people can learn some tips about not only how to cap the NBA (the best sport to handicap, IMO), but also how to protect your bankroll...

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Ok, this is how things will work for 2008-09...

3 different starting bankrolls, 10K in each one…

Level 1 bankroll: 10K
Level 2 bankroll: 10K
Level 3 bankroll: 10K

Level 3 bets: Are my strongest bets..."Best-of-the-Best" bets that pop up during the season...I have no idea how many there will be this season...Maybe 8, maybe 15...I dunno...Maybe less...I have always laughed at touts and their "ability" to know that there is a Play of the Week every week and a Play of the Month every month, and a Play of the Year every year...How do they know this??...How do they know that these plays will exist??...I don't...When I see them, I'll bet them, but I have no idea how many "top" plays there will be before the season starts...Which is why I have:

Level 2 bets: Basically these are my #1 sides and #1 totals and maybe a #2 or a #3 sprinkled in from time to time...There won't be bets every day in this category...Generally 1 to 3 plays a day, with 1 bet a day probably being the average, unless, I decide to be very selective this year, and then there will be less...

Level 1 bets: These will be all picks that I like daily…Could be 1 or 2 a day, could be 9 or 10 a day…Or anywhere in between...

These levels will be bet like this:

Level 1 plays: 2.5% of bankroll per play
Level 2 plays: 5% of bankroll per play
Level 3 plays: 10% of bankroll per play

Also, All Level 2 plays are also bet for 2.5% at the Level 1 Bankroll...
And, all Level 3 plays are also bet at Level 1 for 2.5% of that bankroll and at Level 2 for 5% of that Bankroll…

In other words:

All Level 1 plays are only bet using the Level 1 bankroll at 2.5% per bet…
All Level 2 plays are bet at 2.5% of the Level 1 BR and 5% of the Level 2 BR per bet…
All Level 3 plays are bet at all 3 Levels, 2.5% at Level 1, 5% at Level 2 and 10% at Level 3 per bet…

And remember, each Level has a starting bankroll of 10K for a 30K total…

“But wait”, people will say, “how can you bet 17.5% on 1 play”? That is insane!”…

No…

If you can get -105 juice, then you are actually betting 6.125% of your overall Bankroll on all Level 3 plays…Not bad, really, for “Best-of-the-Best” plays, which to this point, with a very small sample over the last 5 years since I have come up with these, have hit a high percentage for me…

----------------------------------------------------------------------<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

Ok, so now that the "rules" are in place, I'll go over some brief facts...

My personal bankrolls for these 3 levels are not 10K, they are less, but I will track all of my bets based on three 10K bankrolls because for simplicity sake, using powers of 10 are easier to track, and followers who wish to tag along can adjust their bankrolls easier based off a power-of-10 bankroll for tracking purposes...

All games listed as bets by me will in fact be bet by me in "real life" at the level indicated...

I won't have bets every day...

I will list my "picks" every day...For people who do not know me, I handicap and then pick every NBA side and every NBA total every day and I rank every pick from 1 to whatever…In other words, if there are 10 NBA games on the board, I pick all 10 sides, rank them from 1 to 10 with 1 being the "strongest" daily play and 10 being the 'weakest" daily play…Been doing this for 17 years...

So I will list every pick with rankings daily...Please don't confuse these with actual bets...The bets will be clearly listed and in Bold...

Since I am U.S. citizen, I don't have access to Pinnacle or the Exchanges, so this really sucks and I will demonstrate why it sucks every day...Juice hurts the bankroll...But since I am a U.S. citizen and I have my money in A-rated SportsBooks that aren't reduced juice, I am stuck with -110 juice, so I will be doing it the hard way this year...But I am up for the challenge...Every bet will have -110 juice...

However, if I had access to the exchanges or Pinnacle, it would be a completely different story...I would bet positive juice or juice at -105 or lower at Pinny (at worst)...

So to illustrate the difference juice makes over the course of the entire season, every bet I make will be with -110 juice (doing it the hard way), but I will track Pinnacle reduced lines separately...

If I had access to the Exchanges, I would have positive or zero juice for EVERY bet...For example, if the Knicks were +10 -107, I would take them at +9 and, what would that be, maybe +104...And if I had Boston -12, I would take Boston -13 to bet it at positive juice...

With my limited time this season, I won't have time to look through the exchanges...

So If there are volunteers during the course of the year who would check out the exchanges after I post a bet at -110, please feel free to post what the positive juice listed is for that game and list the line for that juice...And I can track those, too...

I would like this to be a learning experience for everyone (who cares to learn) by reading this thread as the year goes on...

----------------------------------------------------------------------
My goals are to:

1) Show the importance of getting reduced juice, no juice or positive juice for all your bets over the course of a season...

2) Show how to protect your bankroll and not expose it to very high risk during the season...

3) Show different things to look for when handicapping the NBA on a daily basis, i.e. pointing out all of the important situational and motivational spots that pop up during the course of the season...

4) Provide analysis with every bet to show that I am not throwing darts...

5) Post the entire season (unless I am getting killed)...

6) Post some winners...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Hopefully everyone will have a profitable 2008-09 NBA season...

GL...
 
BOL man. been checkin your posts for couple yrs. HOWEVER being a US citizen does not mean you cannot have access to exchanges. I live in California and bet thru matchbook- an exchange. Once I got a netspend card (like a prepaid card- google 'netspend') its easy to deposit into matchbook. and getting +105 and -110 over a long season could be the difference b/w losing half the bankroll and winning half the bankroll.

just to clarify: say there are 10 games on a given day. You'll bet 2.5% of your 'level 1" bankroll on each play? and more on possible 'level 2/3' plays if they arise?

Thanks. Lets profit this season
 
SF_capper said:
BOL man. been checkin your posts for couple yrs. HOWEVER being a US citizen does not mean you cannot have access to exchanges. I live in California and bet thru matchbook- an exchange. Once I got a netspend card (like a prepaid card- google 'netspend') its easy to deposit into matchbook. and getting +105 and -110 over a long season could be the difference b/w losing half the bankroll and winning half the bankroll.

just to clarify: say there are 10 games on a given day. You'll bet 2.5% of your 'level 1" bankroll on each play? and more on possible 'level 2/3' plays if they arise?

Thanks. Lets profit this season
Click to expand...

2.5% of bankroll on all Level 1 plays and I will be sure to spell everything out in my daily posts...

I will look into NetSpend immediately...Is MatchBook rated?...

I had accounts at BetFair, Mansion, Pinnacle and Bet365 (bet365 was not reduced juice, but I played poker there and liked the site) and used NeTeller to move my money and ALL of those options were gone as of about 22 months ago...

If anyone else knows of any exchanges that U.S. citizens do have access to, let me know...After Congress passed that internet gambling legislation 2 years ago right before they broke for the new year in that port security bill, I lost all those options, took almost all money out of the offshore game and had to make this a hobby again and I currently only have my money in a couple of A-rated Books, but they are -110 juice...

My partner and I opened a business a year ago and I haven't had time to look into all the Exchanges out there as I obviously assumed incorrectly that they were ALL off limits since the two I had accounts with became off limits...I literally placed maybe 30 bets last year and did not post anywhere...I am looking to get back into the game and increase my bankroll this year a bit more, but we'll see how much time I have this year...I expect to have a little more as hopefully the business will be more under control in Year 2, but when dealing with the public, there are no guarantees...

Thanx for the info..Maybe there is hope yet for me to get less than -110...
 
Brew

Like your style man, good luck with every bet this year. Your information, and experience will be very valuable this year.
 
Matchbook also had/has a sportsbook exchange, where you can transfer money from your account on some of the other major sportsbooks (Greek, CRIS, etc) into your matchbook account.... $500 minimum last time I looked.
 
Matchbook is the shit. I used a MoneyGram. Real easy to do, although it seems really sketchy.
 
Thanx guys as I signed up with MatchBook and am funding that account over the next few days...
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395
All picks: 62-41-2
#1 picks: 12-7
===============================
Now on to the Regular Season...
===============================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
===============================

Opening Night:

Ok, the DOGs covered all 5 games the last 2 seasons on Opening night, but in all reality, that has nothing to do with tonight's games...And the FAVs did quite well the 4 seasons before that, going 10-3...I am basically a DOG player in the NBA and will always err on the side of the DOG, and of course, immediately, I like all 3 DOGs tonight at first blush...

Cleveland at Boston -- LeBron says he has the most talent around him since his ballyhooed entrance into the NBA directly from high school...He was actually quoted as saying there is no excuse not to win a championship this year...There are some pieces here, for sure, but after reading up on them online, I will agree that they are no longer going to be as tough or as tenacious on defense this season and that Charles Barkley is probably spot-on when he says that this Cleveland team will have much more success running up and down the floor this season, playing to LeBron's strengths...And with the campaign for "LeBron for MVP" already under way in Cleveland, what better way to jack up LeBron's already amazing numbers some more by playing more of a transition game?...And LeBron's numbers have been utterly amazing playing for a team that has slowed the pace for the most part in recent years, playing a half-court set...

So now that they have a few horses who can run, you may see them run more this year and Coach Mike Brown has hinted that this may be the way to go after seeing LeBron fit in with style with fluidity in the Olympics...You may ask, "How the hell is this team going to play a transition game and quicken the pace and run more with guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Ben Wallace out on the floor?...Well, the Lakers had Showtime with Jabbar and Rambis out on the floor...I believe it'll be the second unit for the Cavs that will speed up the pace and Lebron will be out on the floor with that unit...

But I have seen this before...One coach talking about speeding up the pace perhaps during the preseason and another talking about focusing on defense more...Until I see a few games, I won't know for sure what they are doing, but I do like this Over...

There aren't as many Unders head-to-head here as one might believe in recent history...Both regualr season games went Under in BOS, but both at CLE went Over...In the playoffs, which normally would be a feast on the Unders you would think between 2 teams like this last year, there were 3 Overs in that 7-game series and 2 of those were at BOS, including Game 7, which is always almost an automatic play on the Under for teams like Detroit, San Antonio, and you would think, a Boston/Cleveland match-up, but they posted a 189 at the Garden in Game 7 and a 185 in Game 5, so the last 2 games at BOS have gone Over between these 2 in critical games where you would think an Under would be the play in a pivotable Game 5 (series tied at 2-2) and Game 7...

I think this game gets into the 90s, and with Cleveland covering 9 of the 11 games vs. Boston last year, I also think it will come down to the wire and the Cavs get the cover...Boston is a bit of a public team now and as defending champs, will be overvalued at the outset and I do think losing Posey may have an effect this season...BOS was 56-25-1 ATS last year in the regular season and what that means for this season will be LACK OF VALUE...

Other games:

No strong opinions at all with MILW at CHI...The Bulls have covered 7 of the last 8 games h-2-h vs. the Bucks (6-1 ATS) and 6 of those 7 wins were Overs...This game just has "PASS" written all over it...I'll watch and wait to see how these teams look after a few games...The Bulls are supposed to be a lot more focused on defense coming into this season, but we'll see...

Portland looks to be strong coming into the season, but can this young team develop into a cohesive unit right out of the gate?...Doesn't matter too much to me because the Lakers are certainly a public team now, too, and were 47-35 ATS last year in the regular season...PORT has covered 21 of the 26 meetings vs. LAL, including 9 straight...I watched both games last year at Staples, and PORT stayed right with them until the final 2 or 3 minutes, and late runs in both games gave the Lakers a pair of 13-point wins, but neither were enough to cover a generous spread...The Lakers had some issues with PORT's length and athletic ability...Oden may get into foul trouble quickly here if Phil is smart enough to go at the Rook, so that is just another x-factor to consider...I like the Blazers though...No opinion on the total...

All Picks:

Sides:

#1 Cle +6.5
#2 Port +7.5
#3 Milw +6

Totals:

#1 Cle ov 179.5
#2 Port un 196
#3 Milw un 194

Bet:

Level 1 -- Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I feel the motivational edge goes to the Cavaliers here, especially with LeBron James as he comes into this season with the goal of a championship...He can carry this team on his shoulders at times, but shouldn't have to as much this season as he has some help, and the pieces he has are on board from the get-go this season (remember the hold-outs last year at the start of the season)...This is a revenge spot which I like to play now and then where a team that got eliminated from the playoffs the previous season (Cavs) are playing the team that eliminated them (Celtics) for the first time the following season...And again, the defending champs are generally overvalued the following season in the early going...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that bankroll...I do realize that with most flat-betting strategies (the 2% of BR method) that most people have the bet amount at 2%, not the amount to win, but I don't like those crazy numbers and will do it this way, and at 2.5%...

This juice is currently -103 at Pinnacle (and being from the USA, I cannot bet there), and you would be laying $259 if you are lucky enough to have an account there...I did sign up with MatchBook today and am currently funding that account over the next few days so I can hopefully get some better juice for the remainder of the season...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
 
Awesome stuff bro. I used to go back and read your stuff at "Blankets " cause it was great research. BOL this season.
 
SportsNut said:
Awesome stuff bro. I used to go back and read your stuff at "Blankets " cause it was great research. BOL this season.
Click to expand...

Ahhhhhh, "blankets", I JUST NOW figured out what this means...Got it...How dumb am I?...Geez...

Well, SportsNut, that is a HUGE compliment coming from you...I talked to a Professional capper from Sweden online every day for 2 years and he capped just like you and he loved your posts on this forum...I don't know if he still lurks, haven't talked to him in a while, but you and him handicap the same way, although he picked my brain for 2 years, so he does cap games similar to the way I do, sometimes, but he is almost as awesome as you are at tracking market prices and recognizing discrepancies and finding value in the lines...You 2 are the best I have seen at that approach, by far...

I just never did it that way...My style is different, but there are lots of winning styles out there...

Keep up the good work on this forum...This is an impressive forum, with loads of talented cappers...Glad I found my way back here...

Hope you have a profitable 2008-09 season...
 
Thanx guys...

Random thoughts on Wednesday's card:

Do we just throw out the recent meetings between Toronto and Philly now that the 76ers have Elton Brand?...I say yes...TOR is 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS vs. Philly the last 9 and 7-2 to the Over, but the Sixers even surprised their loyal fans last season (me, for one) with their break-out season last year as they literally came out of nowhere after an 18-30 start...After that typical Philly start, they went on an 18-5 run from Feb 4 thru April 4...Well, they had already finished the season series with the Raptors before FEB 4, so I think these last 9 games can be thrown out the window...With that said, I have to wonder if Philly is slightly overvalued here being 5.5 point chalk against a Raptors' team that has added Jermaine O'Neal...And Philly had been a terrible Home ATS team the last 5 years for the most part until the aforementioned FEB 4 thru APR 4 hot streak...

Atlanta has actually won 4 of the last 6 h-2-h vs. ORL, including a DEC win at ORL last season as a 10-point DOG...Losing Childress will hurt and this is the year where we'll see whether ATL can step up and improve off a 35-win season, or do they sink back down into further mediocrity around the 30-win mark...No strong opinions here...

NJ 22-8 SU and 19-11 ATS last 30 vs. WAS, and despite winning 7 of the last 8 SU, the Wiz have covered 4 of the last 5 vs. NJ...I keep reading articles online saying the Nets will surprise some people this season...I just don't see it, but in the East, I guess anyone can get hot, get 35 wins and grab the #8 seed (i.e. ATL last season)...

NY Knicks totals trends can now be fed into the shredder now that Coach D'Antoni and his shoot-within-7-seconds and more-than-3-dribbles-is-not-allowed offense has been implemented...I think Miami may get sucked right into this style with their personnel and you are going to see a wide-open game...Who cares who wins when the Over is the play?...Only question will be do I go 1Q, 1H or Game Over the total?...I expect 60+ in the 1Q...

Detroit seems like a motivated bunch under new coach Michael Curry...They were sharp in the preseason, going 6-2 after basically tossing away their final game, sitting 2 starters and limiting others and they still only lost by a point...Indy may be god-awful this season, I'll have to watch their progress or lack thereof, but I think the Pistons may maul them on WED...Pistons have won 6 straight h-2-h, going 5-1 ATS...And the Pistons have a renewed interest in their defense, something that lacked under Flip Saunders last season, according to players' quotes in the preseason, so look for some Unders early on until Vegas adjusts their totals downward...

Oklahoma City (the Thunder) are a bit nicked up (looking at the injury report) and they aren't very good to begin with, but they will have a great crowd behind them in their inaugural season there...MILW shot 47.4% from the field last night and still lost by 13 to CHI, which must be disturbing to them, so now they go back-to-back and of course I'll lean to OKC here strictly because of a motivational edge in their first regualr season game at their new city...

Minny is supposed to have a good inside game now with their UCLA draft pick and because Al Jefferson had a break-out year...We'll see if that can get them above 25 games in the West...Sac-town is young now, too...I wouldn't touch this game tonight if you paid me...Need to see how these teams perform for a few games...

Again, we have a revenge-spot game early in the season where a team that got eliminated from the playoffs (Suns) are playing the team that eliminated them (Spurs), which is an automatic pick (and sometimes a bet) for me...SA missing Ginobili...This game looking VERY similar to last year's game on DEC 17 which was also the first meeting between these 2 teams and SA had eliminated PHOE from the playoffs before last season, too...Game was at SA, both teams had one day's rest, and the line was almost identical (PHOE got 1.5 last year) and that was because Tony Parker didn't play...This time it's Ginobili that is missing...I will not hide the fact that I like PHOE in this spot...

Houston 12-point chalk vs. Memphis...McGrady may have limited minutes and Battier is OUT...The latter is more important than people realize, IMO...Battier is a great defender and can hit the open 3 when teams double Yao or McGrady...I guess people figure Artest will just step right in and HOU won't miss a beat...We'll see...I am still waiting to see if MEMP Coach Marc Iavaroni is going to cut these athletes loose or not this year and play a PHOE-like tempo...Never really did it last year, although when you look at their roster, you'd think he would...Again, we'll see what transpires...

Denver missing Melo (suspended 2 games) and Utah missing Deron Williams due to a preseason ankle sprain...These teams have not played a total less than 218 against each other their last games, but these 2 guys are a huge piece of their respective teams' offenses...Denver players talk about a committment to defense for this season, but I am also committed to quit eating cookies and I just had about 5 or 6 in the last hour, so I'll believe that when I see it, especially with Camby and Najera gone...Both of these coaches are rock-solid, but I believe there is a greater chance that George Karl finds a way to win this game without Melo than Jerry Sloan finds a way to win without his rising star PG...

The pointspread has only come into play in 1 of the last 13 meetings between GS and NO...So yes, GS plays very well at home since Nellie took over, but they have looked bad their last 2 season openers, both at Home, losing to the Lakers by 12 as 7.5 chalk in 06-07 and they lost by 21 as 1-point chalk to Utah last year, when they were missing Stephen Jackson due to suspension)...Sound familiar?...Monta Ellis is suspended to start this season (30 games)...Lots of new pieces for Nellie, and Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, Austin Croshere and a few other smaller names are GONE...Ok, they added Corey Maggette (LAC), Ronny Turiaf (LAL) and Marcus Williams (NJ), but this team may struggle early again...All reports seem to indicate that even without Ellis, this team will be running wild up and down the court, so the Overs should still be ok the first week or two...

Lakers really looked great in their opener and for folks who don't follow the NBA too closely, a healthy Trevor Ariza coming off the bench is BIG for this team...BIG...24+ minutes last night, 4-for-7 from the field, hitting a wide open 3 to boot as he finished with 11 points and he is a good defender...So with Ariza, Odom, Farmar and Vujacic coming off the bench and making the rotation, the Lakers are really going to be tough if they stay healthy...The Clips Baron Davis is probable, but Camby is doubtful...The Lakers mauled the Clips last season, beating them by an average of 26 PPG and winning every game by at least 18 points...And there were no anomalies there, as the Clips had more rest than the Lakers twice and they had equal rest the other 2 games...
 
as for Phoenix: Although there is playoff revenge, which I agree is a great situational spot, Shaq's comments against Pop may bring similiar motivation to SA. Phoenix lost to SA undoubtedly, and bring in a completely different style of play/dedication to D/ more half court offense. The team has barely played 1 preseason game together fully. Although sitationally Phoenix may have revenge in mind, with the short line and SA at home, don't know if Phoenix has been together with the system enough to score on the SA defense. Typically playoff revenge comes into play midseason, as one team is in midseason mentality and just treats it as another game, while the other team is still rmemebering the playoff exit. however, this is different as all teams get up for the home opener. Just my 2 cnts, you've been doing this longer/more successfully than me so BOL
 
SF_capper said:
as for Phoenix: Although there is playoff revenge, which I agree is a great situational spot, Shaq's comments against Pop may bring similiar motivation to SA. Phoenix lost to SA undoubtedly, and bring in a completely different style of play/dedication to D/ more half court offense. The team has barely played 1 preseason game together fully. Although sitationally Phoenix may have revenge in mind, with the short line and SA at home, don't know if Phoenix has been together with the system enough to score on the SA defense. Typically playoff revenge comes into play midseason, as one team is in midseason mentality and just treats it as another game, while the other team is still rmemebering the playoff exit. however, this is different as all teams get up for the home opener. Just my 2 cnts, you've been doing this longer/more successfully than me so BOL
Click to expand...

And the Under may be a better play, but to be honest, I am contemplating a bet on Phoenix, but may pass as I look to be ultra-selective in Week 1...May even take New Orleans in the late game, we'll see how I feel later today...
----------------------------------------------------------------------


Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
====================================
Now on to the Regular Season...
Bets record:
====================================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 1-0, +$250
====================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted in a previous post in this thread...
==============================

Day 2:

Random thoughts already posted for Wednesday's card...

All Picks:

Sides (1-2):

#1 Phoe +2.5
#2 NO -5
#3 Det -10
#4 Tor +5.5
#5 Den +7
#6 Memp +12
#7 NY -3
#8 NJ +6
#9 OKC -2
#10 Sac +5.5
#11 Orl -7.5
#12 LAC +9

Totals (1-2):

#1 NY ov 208.5
#2 LAC un 203
#3 Det un 187
#4 NO ov 207
#5 NJ un 192.5
#6 Memp ov 191.5
#7 OKC ov 198
#8 Tor ov 190
#9 Den un 210.5
#10 Sac un 203
#11 Phoe un 187.5
#12 Orl un 202

Bet:

Level 1 -- Miami/New York over 208.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Already talked about this one as all previous NY Knicks total trends can be thrown out the window...Coach D'Antoni has implemented his shoot-within-7-seconds and more-than-3-dribbles-is-not-allowed offense for the season and I think Miami may get sucked right into this style with their personnel and you are going to see a wide-open game...I remember betting Phoenix games Over in D'Antoni's first full season as the Suns' coach in 2003-04 at the outset, and I had a push on opening night only because they killed ATL by 30, then had 4 of the next 5 go Over and the Overs just kept coming...I feel compelled to bet this game Over...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
 
brewers7 said:
Ahhhhhh, "blankets", I JUST NOW figured out what this means...Got it...How dumb am I?...Geez...

Well, SportsNut, that is a HUGE compliment coming from you...I talked to a Professional capper from Sweden online every day for 2 years and he capped just like you and he loved your posts on this forum...I don't know if he still lurks, haven't talked to him in a while, but you and him handicap the same way, although he picked my brain for 2 years, so he does cap games similar to the way I do, sometimes, but he is almost as awesome as you are at tracking market prices and recognizing discrepancies and finding value in the lines...You 2 are the best I have seen at that approach, by far...

I just never did it that way...My style is different, but there are lots of winning styles out there...

Keep up the good work on this forum...This is an impressive forum, with loads of talented cappers...Glad I found my way back here...

Hope you have a profitable 2008-09 season...
Click to expand...

Thanks Brewers. The respect is mutual . I really enjoy having someone else's indepth analysis to read on a day to day basis . My style has evolved over the years . When I first started I spent the early portion of the day capping everything up and down . Now I am just more selective on what games I do that for . I am truly blessed for this ability to just look at numbers and be able to make rational (profitable) decisions.

I find it amazing that so many people enjoy reading my commentary. Truly nice to hear though and even nice to know your relevant in what feels like the other side of the world to a guy in NY( your friend in Sweden.).

Dont want to clog your thread to much. :cheers:

BOL today . Looks like NYK scoring will rely heavily on how well they shoot the 3 ball and FTs. Which they were so terrible last year from the FT line but we know that's area's the new coach will emphasize. If they knock down 10+ trey on relatively decent % shooting they should be able to eclipse 110+ on most nights.( 20Fts made , 10 3's = 30pts , and 30 2pt buckets =60 which gets us to 110 obviously )

Probably playing this myself and also looking at NYK with NKY TT over possibly. :shake:
 
SportsNut, I would never accuse you of "clogging my thread" ever, because you post some excellent info...Info that many cappers are not capable of producing as I have only seen it produced by just a couple of European cappers, and not at the level that you are producing it...I always appreciate reading good information...I looked at "blankets" briefly tonight just looking for even one person who was posting analysis that made any sense and I didn't see any...Maybe I missed a few among the plethora of attention-seeking posts over there, but what a waste of time...A lot different on this forum...Many rock-solid cappers here...Many...Refreshing, quite frankly...Keep up the good work...


Random thoughts on Thursday's card:

Bobcats just the second team in 5 years to go winless in the preseason...They have played the Cavs tough their last 11 meetings, winning 3 of them and losing 7 of their 8 losses by 7 points or less...A trend got snapped in their last meeting on April 2 of last year, as CHAR covered the first-half line in that game, snapping a streak where the Cavs had covered 10 straight 1H lines against the Bobcats...Cavs 9.5 chalk here and it's about to hit 10, which is a lot for this match-up, but Sean May simply is not healthy for CHAR yet as he continues to rehab his knee...I read somewhere that he had more turnovers than rebounds this preseason and new coach Larry Brown said that May simply isn't ready to play to start this season...4 of the last 5 h2h have gone Over...Larry Brown has been nothing short of a genius in his coaching career, but he has a Herculean task ahead of him this season...Normally I'd jump all over the points here, but I doubt seriously if I can pull the trigger until I see the Bobcats play a few games...

Dallas has won 9 of 11 vs. Houston, they were also 9-2 ATS as the points did not figure in any of those 11 games...Coach Rick Carlisle takes over for Avery Johnson and he gets the Rockets coming in on the back-end of a back-to-back...Advantage: Dallas...And after looking at the pace of the Memphis/Houston game last night (only 156 shots and just 38 FTs with both teams shooting less than 40%), I would expect more of the same tonight in regard to total shots (I would expect better shooting PCTs)...

NO/PHOE line opened at -2/200.5 with PHOE favored at Home, and the total was already dropped 5 points (linesmaker's adjustment, I believe), and I think I can see why...Yes, the Phoe/SA game more or less flew over the total on WED, but the pace wasn't all that quick (159 shots, 46 FTs), but both teams shot well (Phoe 49.4% and SA 50%)...These teams had played 9 straight Unders h2h before their last 3 contests, where there were some sick Overs (3 straight, 231, 262 & 223, after only breaking 200 once their previous 9)...More or less came out of nowhere...Do we continue to be 220 or higher on THUR?...Doubt it...I think we go back to the Unders, but if this line gets lower than 195, it'll be lowest Vegas-posted total between these 2 teams in the last 15 contests...NO swept the season series last year and has covered 6 straight h2h...

Not a lot jumping out at me here...I'll see if I feel different later in the day...
<!-- / message -->
 
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
====================================
Bets record:
====================================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 2-0, +$500
====================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted in a previous post in this thread...
==============================
Sides: 8-6-1, #1 picks: 2-0
Totals: 8-7, #1 picks: 1-1
=====================================
Day 3:

Random thoughts already posted for Thursday's card...

All Picks:

Sides:

#1 Char +10
#2 NO +3
#3 Dal -5

Totals:

#1 NO un 198
#2 Char un 183
#3 Dal un 190

No bets today...One of my friends says I have "no balls", that I should bet a few more of my top picks and PHOE was the one last night as I literally went into the sportsbook online and typed the bet in, but changed my mind and did not hit submit...And I also did not bet the Knicks over in he 1Q and the 1H...The reason: I am usually very conservative the first week or so of the season...Which, may be a bad thing the last few years because the previous 4 seasons I have started the first 7-to-8 weeks of the season hot...Which is a new development, really, because the previous decade I sucked in November and would get scorching hot around Week 6...Still way to early to tell how well or bad things will go in November, but all I can guarantee is that I'll be working hard and doing my homework because I am betting real money here with these posted plays and I hate losing...

I am passing tonight...I am not sure if posting 2H bets is useful or not in this forum setting because not everyone is sitting in front of their pc every night for hours on end looking for 2H plays...But if i do see a 2H play that I am going to bet, I'll post it, but I generally don't like betting them the first week or so of the season...
<!-- / message -->
 
Thanx, HWG...

Random thoughts on Friday's card:

Both GS/Tor games went Under last year, with a 206 in TOR and a 223 in GS...And these 2 teams have hit at least 206 in 6 straight games h2h...GS has won 5 of 6 and are also 5-1 ATS vs. Tor, and that only loss at TOR on 12/17/06 was by 5 points...So is this line too high (7.5) and is this total too low (205)?...Time will tell, but I admit I like the Over...NO/GS would have flown Over by more Opening Night had it not been for a 42-point 4Q as the game tightened up down the stretch...

Vegas wasted no time jacking up this NY/Phi line as it sits at 217.5...I never felt very threatened in the MIA/NY game with the Over as it was on an Over pace right out of the gate and it maintained an Over pace every step of the way, but that 69-point 4Q made a mockery of the Vegas total, thus tacking on a few points for the number tonight...All h2h totals numbers between these 2 teams can be thrown out the window as a better gauge would be the 2 Preseason games these 2 teams played, where they totalled 214 on OCT 10 (165 shots & 49 FTs at Philly) and a 225 on OCT 14 (174 shots & 43 FTs at MSG)...Fast paces...Which this one will be, too...I am not afraid of that Vegas number unless it gets tight in the 4Q, and then the pace may slow, so I may look at a 1Q or 1H play (they had 111 & 116 in the 1H's at Philly and MSG, respectively, and 60 & 56 in the 1Q's at those same venues, respectively)...Philly won by 7 at MSG and NY won by 6 at Philly...Again, the DOG and the Over look tempting...

Miami had owned Sacramento before losing to them and Not Covering on 3/2/08 at Sac-town as 7-point Dogs...The Heat had won 8 straight and Covered 9 straight vs. the Kings...In fact, the Heat were 15-5 SU and 19-3 ATS vs. SAC in their previous 22 meetings before that loss...Will this streak now reverse itself?...Kings getting 5.5...I don't have a strong feel at all for this one so lean to the DOG...

Orlando now has MEMP after an embarrassing home loss to ATL...The Magic have a very good starting 5, but that bench looks awfully thin...I don't think I am going out on a limb when I say that the Atlanta Hawks' bench is far from stellar (now that they lost Childress to a team in Greece, I believe), but the Hawks' bench outscored ORL 27-11...ORL shot just 37% for the game and their bench shot 20% from the field...ORL also lost to MEMP last year at Home as 11.5 chalk, although Rashard Lewis didn't play that game, and ORL avenged that embarrassing loss 5 weeks later with a 27-point spanking over MEMP at MEMP...The Grizz only shot 38% in their opener, so I wonder if both teams bounce back shooting-wise and get Over that 190 number...

The Celtics outscored the Bulls by 18 PPG last year while sweeping them in all 4 regular season games and winning every game by at least 11 points...BOS was 10 & 11-point FAVs at BOS in the 2 Home games, well after the C's had already established themselves as a power in the league, so this line is a clear Vegas adjustment, IMO, unless you believe that CHI is THIS much better than last year based on 1 game this season, a win over a shoddy MILW team...Both games went Over at BOS last season...

Melo still has a game to sit due to suspension...The Clips got mauled in their opener...Nuggets have won 5 of the last 6 SU h2h...Camby's status still uncertain for the Clips and this is big because if he plays, it'll be against his former team...The Clips were totally over-matched by the Lakers in their 38-point loss last time out, but the Clips are nowhere near that bad, especially with Camby and even without him, I think they can beat Denver here...And I generally like teams in a bounce-back spot after a 30+ point loss...These 2 teams are 12-2-1 to the Under in their last 15 games h2h...

With SA only listed as 1.5 chalk, the line shouldn't come into play here, so why is this line so low for a matchup that sees the Spurs winning 12 straight and 19 of 20 against the Blazers?...Trap here?...Ok, no Ginobili, I understand that, but is Vegas setting us up here?...I would certainly assume the public will be all over SA, so if the line doesn't move at all, then it'll have to be an automatic pick with PORT, but I doubt if I can bet them just yet this season because I think they are a bit over-valued right now as the perception is that this team is going to be very much improved this season, but that may not happen for another month or two as they need to adjust without having Oden for maybe a month... <!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
 
Brew, this has to be the best NBA thread in the world. Learning a ton right now.

You getting all these trends from your notekeeping or help from a site?

Seeing Trends are necessary. Example, great insight in the comment that Memphis upset Orlando at TD Waterhouse and then Orlando turns around and avenges that loss by over 20 at Memphis. I think that says Orlando was clearly the superior team last year so if emotion is equal not safe to pick Memphis this go around.

Two things I'm seeing----First Identify the superior team. Scores from past results kept in reference to the "situation" of those results I think is really beneficial in this regard. Then identify the emotional aspect wether it be revenge, home court, back to back, etc.

Totals looks like trends from past results are important to keep in mind as well and compare with each team's recent shooting percentange and roster changes.

--Watching opening games this year realizing how much NBA is a game of "runs" in many ways. Will be interesting to see how you handle teams like Houston or Phoenix when hot in the past.

Matchup capping which is my style alot harder in NBA. But I see Toronto with a big big size and interior talent advantage to pound Golden State.......but would probably have to reference that matchup to how Golden State has fared in past against similar teams as Toronto.

I think the Orlando-Memphis over looks attractive. Memphis only had 71 at Houston, hard to see them replicating that and Houston really solid defensively and know how to ugly a game up. Houston also only had 82 so maybe a little first game jitters because Houston turns around and put 112 up. Adage most improvement from 1st game to 2nd game might be in session. And then you have Orlando who, are very dissapointed in their effort and I can almost guarantee a better output offensively. Maybe defensively as well though. --Odds are high those % from both teams come up closer toward the mean

But O.J. Mayo jacking up over 20 shots without regard for offensive sets should catch up to them. Memphis with that lineup I think they should be a fast pace high scoring team.
 
Great to see you again brewers7, love the weekly threads.

Not too crazy about the overs in the GS/Tor and NY/Phi games. JO's addition to Bosh will certainly turn many opponents into jump shooting teams, and 205.5 seems like a high number imo, moreso without Monta/Baron. I alos think Philly's opening night's loss at home might bear on the coaching staff to focus on taking care of the ball more (17 TOs) over quick transition D.

Good luck today Brew.
 
Thanx guys...

O-State said:
You getting all these trends from your notekeeping or help from a site?

Two things I'm seeing----First Identify the superior team. Scores from past results kept in reference to the "situation" of those results I think is really beneficial in this regard. Then identify the emotional aspect wether it be revenge, home court, back to back, etc.

20 shots without regard for offensive sets should catch up to them. Memphis with that lineup I think they should be a fast pace high scoring team.
Click to expand...

I have paper charts (have a link posted somewhere in another section here) and a database with 17 years worth of data, but I have a few sites that I look at online too for additional info and I'll point them out some time...

Past results and trends are a guide for me...Only a guide...What you said is correct though, although I'll change you words slighty: identify the situation and determine which team has more motivation and then identify if the team with the motivation can overcome their opponent if their opponent is a superior team...

And I don't know why Iavaroni isn't letting this team run wild...He should establish a D'Antoni offense here with this squad...
 
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
====================================
Bets record:
====================================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 2-0, +$500
====================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted in a previous post in this thread...
==============================
Sides: 9-8-1, #1 picks: 2-1
Totals: 9-9, #1 picks: 1-2
=====================================
Day 4:

Random thoughts already posted for Friday's card...

Picks will come later as I need to get a bet down as the line is rising...

Bet:

Level 1 -- Golden State/Toronto over 104, 1H, laying $275 to win $250 -- I have decided to take the 1st-Half line here, although I almost took the 1Q...These 2 teams had a 62 in the 1Q last year at Toronto and 120 in the 1H that game, before an 85 in the 2H kept it Under by 1 point on the game line...It is all about GS flying out of the gate early in the game, and Toronto seems to do the same...In that game on 11/18/07, GS had 43 shots and 17 FTs and TOR had 50 shots and 9 FTs in the 1H for 93 shots and 26 FTs in the 1H...Fast pace...2H wasn't much slower, 84 shots and 22 FTs, but it was a little slower...But I am looking at TOR's opening game at Philly 2 days ago and here is where the pace is notably different...TOR and Philly combined for 96 shots and 16 FTs in the 1H, while getting 69 shots and 27 FTs in the 2H...I saw some of that game and the pace was very quick in the 1H...And TOR had several very quick 1Q paces last season and GS has them virtually every game...The only reason I am not betting the 1Q Over is because in the TOR game at Philly 2 days ago, there were just 39 points in the 1Q compared to 57 in the 2Q, but that's because both teams shot 34% in the 1Q...Anyway, I like the Over for the 1Q, 1H and Game, but I am betting the 1st-half over...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->
 
GL, Brew.

I like the under for the game, but was very tempted to pull the trigger on Over 52 1Q or 104 1H.

As far as I know, Moon will still be starting tonight. With Moon the Raptors play a faster pace, just because he likes to fly all over the place. He will sometimes leave his man to hedge for the block, steal or to leak out for the break early.

Kapono, slows the pace considerably and more half court sets are in play. Tough to base totals compared to last years team. GS doesnt have the pg and the Raptors are making a heavy effort to play half court.
 
Thanx guys...

t-dot said:
GL, Brew.

I like the under for the game, but was very tempted to pull the trigger on Over 52 1Q or 104 1H.

As far as I know, Moon will still be starting tonight. With Moon the Raptors play a faster pace, just because he likes to fly all over the place. He will sometimes leave his man to hedge for the block, steal or to leak out for the break early.

Kapono, slows the pace considerably and more half court sets are in play. Tough to base totals compared to last years team. GS doesnt have the pg and the Raptors are making a heavy effort to play half court.
Click to expand...

Good points and that's why it was either 1Q or 1H Over for me as I am worried about the TOR side of the equation and they played a half-court game the 2H against Philly...Baron Davis is GONE and Ellis is suspended, BUT everything I read about GS in the preseason said Nellie still has the athletes to keep the same pace as last year, and if you look at their players, they do...Good Luck to us tonight...
 
Blue_Chip said:
Did tru hack into vk's account?
Click to expand...

is that for me or someone else?...

----------------------------------------------------

Day 4:

I am adding 2 bets...

All Picks:

Sides:

#1 NY +7.5
#2 GS +7.5
#3 Port +1.5
#4 LAC +2
#5 Chi +10
#6 Sac +6
#7 Memp +7

Totals:

#1 NY ov 215
#2 Memp ov 192.5
#3 GS ov 207
#4 LAC ov 199.5
#5 Port un 177
#6 Sac un 206.5
#7 Chi un 190

Added Bets:

Level 1 -- New York/Philadelphia Over 54.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- I have decided to take the 1st-Quarter line here, as the game line has dropped 2.5 points from where it opened to the spot that I thought it would open to begin with...I mentioned 2 preseason games where the 1Q hit 56 and 60 between these two 2 weeks ago...I mentioned in my other bet that Philly in their opener had a fast-paced 1H and they did...There were 47 shots taken and 6 FTs taken in the 1Q of that game (even more shots taken in the 2Q) but in the Knicks game vs. Miami, there were 50 shots and 12 FTs taken in the 1Q, before a drop-off in the 2Q that saw 37 shots and 22 FTs...I expect a very fast pace in Philly tonight in the 1Q, a frenetic pace actually, and it just comes down to hitting enough to get us over that 54.5...The Knicks and Heat only hit 21 shots in that 1Q and still got 55 points...I expect 60+ in the 1Q tonight from NY and Philly...

Level 1 -- Orlando/Memphis over 192.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I looked at the pace of the Orlando/Atlanta game 2 days ago and saw that there was 173 shots taken and 58 FTs attempted...That's enough for me...ORL shot poorly, pure and simple...37% from the Field and 63% from the FT line...MEMP shot poorly at HOU 2 days ago at 38%...I expect BOTH teams to shoot better...The only thing that concerned me was what the pace was for ORL's opener, but after seeing those numbers for shots taken and FTs attempted, I am no longer worried about the pace of this game to get the score to reach 195 or higher...Plus, these teams played a 197 at MEMP last year and the first time they met at ORL in December, they put up a 242...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->
 
Last edited:
Solid, solid stuff brewers. Likely hopping on that 1st quarter bet with ya. On the GSW/TOR full game over. Hopefully you get enough in the 1st half to help me out in the full game.
 
JRose5 said:
Nice hit on the Knicks 1st qtr. over. Had that one as well. Close...
Click to expand...

Close...My God, I had to turn the game off...Knicks couldn't score the first 6 minutes, then Philly couldn't score and were 1-for-6 from the FT line...I honestly didn't think it had any chance and then saw the score on DonBest after the 1Q was over as it was a commercial on TV...

What's that saying, "better lucky than good"?...I'll take this one...

And the GS/Tor 1Q pace was terrible for the 1H Over...Not much of a chance there unless it picks up big-time in the 2Q... <!-- / message -->
 
First losing day of 2008-09, won't be the last...3-2 on the week...I may pass today...I am going to look over the board a little bit more, but the 3 plays that sort of pop out at me are Dal ov, Char & Cle un...

I don't want to force anything right now as I am not quite "feeling it" yet this season, probably forced a bet yesterday with the 2-0 bet record going into FRI, but all of my picks combined are pretty much right at 50%, which tells me I am off to a slow start and should pull back a little bit...

No need to dig a hole early to try and climb out of...Probably too early to be betting 1H and 1Q lines, although last year I noticed that a lot of my #1 plays were easy winners on the 1H line, and then ended up losing on the Game line...Almost happened with CLE opening night...

Ok, I like a couple, but in all honesty, I really am not quite feeling it flow yet this season and I just don't want to push the issue...

If I can go 3-2 every week (and there will be Level 2 and Level 3 plays as the season progresses) then I'll be happy as pie, although when I feel like I am finally getting in a bit of a groove, there'll be more than 5 plays a week...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
====================================
Bets record:
====================================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 3-2, +$200
====================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted in a previous post in this thread...
==============================
Sides: 12-12-1, #1 picks: 2-2
Totals: 13-12, #1 picks: 1-3
=====================================

Ok, I basically have been a coin flip for all of my picks and my #1 plays off to a slow start...Didn't have time to go in-depth into too many of the games although I looked into several, but I am going to pass for today...This may be the year for a slower start than the past 4, but I actually prefer that to be honest because I'd rather be hot From Week 5 or 6 through mid-FEB and even into March because when I had tha pattern, I made a lot more money than I did the last 4 years where I started a house-a-fire (while being conservative) and then getting cold right as I was raising the bet...

Bottom line is I am in this to make money and there's nothing wrong with taking a step back and re-evaluating where you're at and making sure I am on top of things...I have never in my history of betting ever felt the need to bet games every day...In my younger days, I did just for the some action on some days, but I am trying to set an example for the board and show that you don't have to do that if you're trying to make a profit...I you are doing this for recreation, then there's nothing wrong with betting every day and I did it for recreation quite a while back, too...If I hit both #1 plays today, I do not look at it as a "lost opportunity"...I look at it as a gauge to make sure I am seeing things correctly...

Still early, we'll see how it plays out...

Picks:

Sides:

#1 Char -3
#2 Den +8.5
#3 GS +5
#4 Cle +3
#5 Memp +8.5
#6 OKC +14
#7 LAC +13.5
#8 Milw -1
#9 Atl -3
#10 Dal -4.5
#11 Port +8
#12 Orl -10
#13 Was +10
#14 Ind +6

Totals:

#1 Dal ov 204
#2 Cle un 188.5
#3 Milw un 191.5
#4 Memp un 192.5
#5 GS ov 205.5
#6 OKC un 191.5
#7 LAC ov 191
#8 Was un 180.5
#9 Orl ov 201
#10 Ind un 191.5
#11 Char un 191
#12 Atl un 193.5
#13 Port ov 192
#14 Den un 209.5

NO BETS

maybe a 2H play ONLY if it looks really good... <!-- / message -->
 
Last edited:
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
====================================
Bets record:
====================================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 3-2, +$200
====================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted in a previous post in this thread...
==============================
Sides: 21-17-1
#1 picks: 3-2

Totals: 22-17
#1 picks: 1-4
=====================================

Day 6:

Ok, 9-5 with both Sides and Totals yesterday, so maybe I'm still seeing it decently enough, just not getting enough winners at the top of the picks board as my #1 picks are 1-4 for Totals, which is not unusual as I remember an 0-6 start about 9 or 10 years ago...The 3 picks I mentioned I like yesterday went 1-2...Good thing I didn't bet...Top 3 sides were 3-0, though, and maybe I should've just bet them all as 18-10 isn't bad in terms of "units" gained...

Picks:

#1 OKC -2
#2 Milw +5.5

Totals:

#1 Milw ov 214.5
#2 OKC un 191.5

Bet:

Level 1 -- Milwaukee/New York over 214.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Since I have mentioned that all Knicks totals trends for past years need to be thrown out the window, I have decided to look at at how teams facing NY did against PHOE last year since D'Antoni coached there last year and teams are dealing with the same system...I am ONLY looking at the totals...Breakdown:

Knicks' opponents this year:

(H) Miami -- Over
(A) Philly -- Under

These teams vs. Phoenix last year:

(H) Miami -- Over
(A) Philly -- Under

Coincidence?...Maybe...

Milwaukee last year had a 236 and went way Over at Phoenix...So of course I am taking the Over tonight... The Knicks also went Over in 2 of 3 Preseason games at Home in October (only Boston was the Under, and well, Boston is 3-0 to the Under thus far in the regular season)...

MILW is 2-1 to the Under this year, but look at their opponents...TOR is technically 3-0 to the Under (2-1 in reality, but the Over was OT-aided), OKC is 2-0 to the Under & Chi is 2-1 to the Under, with the only Over being against the Bucks...Now I think the Bucks may be what I call a "chameleon" team when it comes with totals, which means they don't have an identity of their own (play great "D" or play at a slow pace or have an explosive offense or play at a fast pace)...They play to their opponents' pace...The Bulls may be a chameleon team, too, as they played Unders against BOS & MEMP and both of those teams are 3-0 to the Under...Another words, going back to last season, chameleon teams will play Overs against GS, DEN and PHOE, and they'll play Unders against BOS, DET & HOU...The Knicks are clearly an up-tempo this team this season under D'Antoni, so I expect the Bucks to get sucked into the Knicks tempo, creating a wide-open game...


Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
 
hey brew, i totally agree w/ your assessment of the bucks being a chameleon team. a total this high in a milwaukee game would immediately make some people think under, especially against NY since they just put a stinker (in the 80's i believe against philly). so by putting it this high they get some good under action. i think they have som sharps hitting the over so they feel confident enough to move the line up a bit, enticing more under money. i think the bucks will play NY really tough tonight and both teams should have no problem getting to 100. i would say the side is pretty shady but i feel good about the total. it is a high total so i don't think we can win this by 20 but hopefully it is comfortable.
 
Well 215 or higher totals are rarely "comfortable" unless we get a 120+ 1st half, so that'll be what I'll be rooting for although I am leaving soon for a birthday party so I probably won't even know what happened with this game till I get home and it'll be final by then...GL to us...
 
brewers7 said:
Well 215 or higher totals are rarely "comfortable" unless we get a 120+ 1st half, so that'll be what I'll be rooting for although I am leaving soon for a birthday party so I probably won't even know what happened with this game till I get home and it'll be final by then...GL to us...
Click to expand...


Based on that rationale, I'm actually going to to with the over 108.5 1H instead....GL brew, hope we both hit
 
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
====================================
Bets record:
====================================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 3-3, -$75
====================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted in a previous post in this thread...
==============================
Sides: 23-17-1
#1 picks: 4-2

Totals: 23-18
#1 picks: 1-5
=====================================

Day 7:

NOTES & COMMENTS:

Got home late last night from a relative's birthday party and was shocked by that Knicks score, but even more stunning was the pace of the game...Not even close to an Over pace, not even close...I fully expected 180 shots with 55+ FTs and got 162 shots and 48 FTs...Even with those amount of shots and FTs last night, if both teams shoot about 52% or higher from the field, it makes it to 215 or higher, but I don't count on 52% shooting when handicapping games, i count on the pace and the pace wasn't there...But there was zero shot at an Over with NY at 37% and MILW at 44%...

Bad bet, pure and simple, and my top totals are 1-5 on the season and unfortunately, my last 3 bets are totals that have taken me from 3-0 to 3-3...And the Chi/orl ov kinda jumps out at me, but I must be discipline and lay off totals for now...I remember going 0-6 during the strike season in 1999 with my top totals to start the season and forcing a play on Day 7 and I did win it, but I raised my bet that day (which is stupid when you're 0-6 to start the season) and I was sweating it a bit all day bcause I raised the bet substantially (was younger and more aggressive then) and even though I won the bet easily (SA at Philly over), I realize now that is was stupid to do that when I was cold...

My Sides are doing better at 4-2 with my #1 picks and I should be sticking with those...I like Detroit to rise up tonight without Billups and McDyess (just traded) and find a way to win this game tonight...GS and MEMP have put up huge totals the last 2 seasons and now suddenly we have a vegas total listed below 200...Well, the MEMP games this year have been Under paces, so I have to pass on a bet...

At 3-3, I am very disappointed with my start, but not concerned...I may even be at or near .500 for the first 4 weeks of the season before I get a feel for this NBA season and make a run...I know for sure, that there won't be any Level 2 plays at all and I will probably continue to limit my Level 1 plays

Unders are 27-14 to this point, so the defenses are well ahead of the offenses to this point...Underdogs are 22-19, after starting 12-6...

Picks:

Sides:

#1 Det -3.5
#2 Chi +7.5
#3 Sac +12
#4 Dal -3.5
#5 Utah -6.5
#6 Memp +2

Totals:

#1 Chi ov 196
#2 Memp ov 199.5
#3 Utah un 187
#4 Sac un 199
#5 Det un 180.5
#6 Dal un 194.5

NO BETS, I'll limp into Week 2 tomorrow at 3-3...
<!-- / message -->
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

P
Monday NBA
Replies
6
Views
409
PirateAlew
P
P
Sunday NBA
Replies
2
Views
222
PirateAlew
P
Stew Baker
NBA FINALS - Dallas @ Boston Gm. 1
Replies
15
Views
345
Stew Baker
Stew Baker
P
Friday NBA
Replies
3
Views
301
PirateAlew
P
L
NBA Championship
Replies
0
Views
89
Loves2kickass
L
Back
Top