NBA 07-08 Season Trend Thread

[BetCrimes1984]

This is the 4th season I'll be tracking Basketball results through the lense of the *Run(-of-Result)s Trend*. For those who aren't familiar with what this is all about, post #2 in this thread pretty much explains everything in depth, as well as can be explained.

Not for all, but for me its now the first pillar for my considering any play.

-------------------------------------------------------

This trend is a method of tracking how Venue, Total & ATS results (sequentially) express themselves, and from there learning the nuances of those patterns of expression to anticipate future results.


- Games are ordered time sequentially, and where a number of games start at the same time they are ordered alphabetically, home team first.

- All figures based on opening lines

- Unassigned results are results which can't yet be said to belong to the current run in place, or be said to constitute a new run, without further results occurring.

- It takes a minimum of 4 results for the dominant side to make for a new run (the exception being to start and end - first & last runs - the season's recording)


The basic marks from the last 3 seasons tracking:

Run advantages -/+....
Normal range .......... 3-6
High range ............ 7-9
Saturation point .... 10+

Run lengths....
Normal range .......... 5-15
High range ........... 16-19
Saturation point .... 20+

The unfavoured total/side/venue within a run....
Normal range .......... 0-3
High range ............ 4-5
Saturation point .... 6+

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Totals

prev _5 games: Under....... 3-2 advantage..... +1
prev 14 games: Over........ 10-4 advantage....... -6
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-2 advantage..... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage..... +5
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev 15 games: Under..... 10-5 advantage..... +5
prev 12 games: Over......... 7-4 advantage........ -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 14 games: Under..... 12-2 advantage.... +10
prev _6 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage........ -4
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev _9 games: Under....... 7-2 advantage..... +5
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _6 games: Under....... 5-1 advantage..... +4
prev 11 games: Over......... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev 11 games: Under....... 7-4 advantage..... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-3 advantage..... +4
prev 11 games: Over......... 8-2 advantage........ -6 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Under....... 6-0 advantage..... +6
prev _6 games: Over......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage..... +5
prev 17 games: Over........ 13-4 advantage....... -9
prev 21 games: Under..... 17-4 advantage.... +13
prev 11 games: Over......... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-3 advantage..... +4
prev 15 games: Over........ 12-3 advantage....... -9
prev _7 games: Under....... 6-1 advantage..... +5
prev 13 games: Over........ 11-2 advantage....... -9
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev _6 games: Over......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _8 games: Under....... 5-3 advantage..... +2
prev 11 games: Over......... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev 35 games: Under..... 29-6 advantage.... +23
prev _8 games: Over......... 7-1 advantage........ -6
prev 16 games: Under..... 13-3 advantage.... +10
prev _9 games: Over......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-3 advantage..... +4
prev _5 games: Over......... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev _9 games: Under....... 7-2 advantage..... +5
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 18 games: Under..... 13-4 advantage..... +9 ...(+1 Push)
prev _9 games: Over......... 8-1 advantage........ -7
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev _7 games: Over......... 6-1 advantage........ -5
prev _9 games: Under....... 7-2 advantage..... +5
prev _8 games: Over......... 6-2 advantage........ -4
prev 19 games: Under..... 13-5 advantage..... +8 ...(+1 Push)
prev 11 games: Over......... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev _8 games: Under....... 5-3 advantage..... +2
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev _7 games: Over......... 7-0 advantage........ -7
prev 13 games: Under....... 9-4 advantage..... +5
prev 12 games: Over......... 9-3 advantage........ -6
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-3 advantage..... +4
prev 24 games: Over........ 16-8 advantage....... -8
prev 16 games: Under..... 11-5 advantage..... +6
prev _6 games: Over......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev 17 games: Under..... 12-5 advantage..... +7
prev 15 games: Over........ 10-5 advantage....... -5
prev 11 games: Under..... 10-1 advantage..... +9
prev 12 games: Over......... 8-3 advantage........ -5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _8 games: Under....... 6-2 advantage..... +4
prev 11 games: Over......... 9-2 advantage........ -7
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev 16 games: Over........ 11-4 advantage....... -7 ...(+1 Push)
prev _4 games: Under....... 4-0 advantage..... +4
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev 22 games: Under..... 15-7 advantage..... +8
prev _9 games: Over......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev 12 games: Under....... 9-3 advantage..... +6
prev 25 games: Over........ 22-3 advantage...... -19
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev 12 games: Over......... 8-4 advantage........ -4
prev 22 games: Under..... 15-6 advantage..... +9 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev _8 games: Over......... 7-1 advantage........ -6
prev 11 games: Under....... 7-4 advantage..... +3
prev 12 games: Over......... 8-4 advantage........ -4
prev _7 games: Under....... 4-3 advantage..... +1
prev 22 games: Over........ 18-3 advantage...... -15 ...(+1 Push)
prev _4 games: Under....... 4-0 advantage..... +4
prev 12 games: Over........ 11-1 advantage...... -10
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage..... +5
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-1 advantage..... +4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _9 games: Over......... 8-1 advantage........ -7
prev 16 games: Under..... 12-4 advantage..... +8
prev _6 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage........ -4
prev 17 games: Under..... 14-2 advantage.... +12 ...(+1 Push)
prev 18 games: Over........ 12-6 advantage....... -6
prev 14 games: Under..... 11-3 advantage..... +8
prev 14 games: Over........ 11-3 advantage....... -8
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-3 advantage..... +4
prev _8 games: Over......... 6-2 advantage........ -4
prev _6 games: Under....... 5-1 advantage..... +4
prev 15 games: Over........ 12-3 advantage....... -9
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev 10 games: Over......... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev 24 games: Under..... 19-5 advantage.... +14
prev 14 games: Over......... 9-5 advantage........ -4
prev 19 games: Under..... 18-1 advantage.... +17
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _8 games: Under....... 8-0 advantage..... +8
prev 19 games: Over........ 15-3 advantage...... -12 ...(+1 Push)
last. _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3

Over -313 / Under +328


----------------------------------------------------------------------

ATS

prev _4 games: Dog.......... 4-0 advantage.... +4
prev _8 games: Fav........... 7-1 advantage...... -6
prev 10 games: Dog.......... 8-1 advantage.... +7 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Fav........... 4-2 advantage...... -2
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 9-3 advantage.... +4
prev _5 games: Fav........... 4-1 advantage...... -3
prev 18 games: Dog........ 12-6 advantage.... +6
prev 13 games: Fav......... 10-3 advantage...... -7
prev 17 games: Dog........ 13-4 advantage.... +9
prev 27 games: Fav......... 18-7 advantage..... -11 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev 28 games: Fav......... 20-8 advantage..... -12
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev 10 games: Fav........... 6-4 advantage...... -2
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 8-4 advantage.... +4
prev _8 games: Fav........... 5-1 advantage...... -4 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev 18 games: Dog........ 13-5 advantage.... +8
prev _4 games: Fav........... 4-0 advantage...... -4
prev _5 games: Dog.......... 4-1 advantage.... +3
prev 14 games: Fav......... 10-4 advantage...... -6
prev 10 games: Dog.......... 7-3 advantage.... +4
prev _5 games: Fav........... 5-0 advantage...... -5
prev 14 games: Dog.......... 9-4 advantage.... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev 10 games: Fav........... 7-3 advantage...... -4
prev _5 games: Dog.......... 5-0 advantage.... +5
prev _6 games: Fav........... 5-1 advantage...... -4
prev 11 games: Dog.......... 7-4 advantage.... +3
prev _6 games: Fav........... 5-1 advantage...... -4
prev _5 games: Dog.......... 4-1 advantage.... +3
prev _6 games: Fav........... 5-1 advantage...... -4
prev 36 games: Dog........ 27-7 advantage... +20 ..(+2 Pushes)
prev _6 games: Fav........... 5-1 advantage...... -4
prev 27 games: Dog........ 19-8 advantage... +11
prev 12 games: Fav........... 8-4 advantage...... -4
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 4-2 advantage.... +2
prev 28 games: Fav......... 21-7 advantage..... -14
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 5-1 advantage.... +4
prev 19 games: Fav......... 14-5 advantage...... -9
prev 13 games: Dog.......... 9-4 advantage.... +5
prev _8 games: Fav........... 5-3 advantage...... -2
prev 18 games: Dog........ 12-6 advantage.... +6
prev 11 games: Fav........... 8-3 advantage...... -5
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev 11 games: Fav........... 8-3 advantage...... -5
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 5-1 advantage.... +4
prev _8 games: Fav........... 7-1 advantage...... -6
prev 20 games: Dog........ 16-4 advantage... +12
prev _5 games: Fav........... 4-1 advantage...... -3
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 5-1 advantage.... +4
prev 21 games: Fav......... 16-5 advantage..... -11
prev 15 games: Dog........ 11-3 advantage.... +8 ...(+1 Push)
prev 19 games: Fav......... 14-4 advantage..... -10 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 4-1 advantage.... +3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 10 games: Fav........... 7-2 advantage...... -5 ...(+1 Push)
prev 16 games: Dog........ 13-3 advantage... +10
prev 18 games: Fav......... 14-4 advantage..... -10
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 9-3 advantage.... +6
prev 12 games: Fav......... 10-2 advantage...... -8
prev _8 games: Dog.......... 4-3 advantage.... +1 ...(+1 Push)
prev 14 games: Fav........... 8-5 advantage...... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 28 games: Dog........ 22-5 advantage... +17 ...(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Fav........... 4-1 advantage...... -3
prev 14 games: Dog........ 10-4 advantage.... +6
prev 18 games: Fav......... 13-5 advantage...... -8
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev _5 games: Fav........... 5-0 advantage...... -5
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 4-2 advantage.... +2
prev _7 games: Fav........... 4-3 advantage...... -1
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 8-4 advantage.... +4
prev 16 games: Fav......... 12-4 advantage...... -8
prev 16 games: Dog........ 10-6 advantage.... +4
prev 10 games: Fav........... 7-3 advantage...... -4
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 9-3 advantage.... +6
prev _6 games: Fav........... 4-2 advantage...... -2
prev _8 games: Dog.......... 5-3 advantage.... +2
prev 31 games: Fav........ 21-10 advantage..... -11
prev _8 games: Dog.......... 5-3 advantage.... +2
prev 13 games: Fav........... 9-4 advantage...... -5
prev _4 games: Dog.......... 4-0 advantage.... +4
prev 28 games: Fav......... 19-9 advantage..... -10
prev 13 games: Dog.......... 9-4 advantage.... +5
prev 20 games: Fav......... 15-5 advantage..... -10
prev _5 games: Dog.......... 4-1 advantage.... +3
prev 21 games: Fav......... 15-5 advantage..... -10 ...(+1 Push)
prev 21 games: Dog........ 14-7 advantage.... +7
prev 18 games: Fav......... 13-4 advantage...... -9 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 6-0 advantage.... +6
prev 10 games: Fav........... 8-2 advantage...... -6
prev _8 games: Dog.......... 4-3 advantage.... +1 ...(+1 Push)
prev 32 games: Fav......... 23-8 advantage..... -15 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev _7 games: Fav........... 5-2 advantage...... -3
prev 28 games: Dog........ 20-8 advantage... +12
prev _9 games: Fav........... 7-2 advantage...... -5
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 6-1 advantage.... +5
prev 12 games: Fav......... 10-2 advantage...... -8
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 5-1 advantage.... +4
prev _5 games: Fav........... 4-1 advantage...... -3
prev _6 games: Dog.......... 5-1 advantage.... +4
prev 19 games: Fav......... 16-3 advantage..... -13
last. _4 games: Dog.......... 3-1 advantage.... +2

Fav -316 / Dog +272


----------------------------------------------------------------------

Venue

prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage....... +4
prev _6 games: Home....... 5-1 advantage......... -4
prev _4 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage......... -2 ...(+1 Push)
prev _4 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev 12 games: Road....... 8-4 advantage....... +4
prev 15 games: Home..... 11-4 advantage......... -7
prev _4 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage......... -3
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 11 games: Home....... 9-1 advantage......... -8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 10 games: Home....... 6-3 advantage......... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage....... +3
prev _6 games: Home....... 6-0 advantage......... -6
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage....... +4
prev _5 games: Home....... 5-0 advantage......... -5
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage....... +3
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage......... -1
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage....... +3
prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 10 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage......... -4 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev _8 games: Road....... 7-1 advantage....... +6
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage......... -3
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage....... +3
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage......... -2
prev _4 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage....... +3
prev 15 games: Home..... 11-4 advantage......... -7
prev 20 games: Road..... 15-4 advantage...... +11 ..(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage......... -3
prev 17 games: Road..... 11-6 advantage....... +5
prev 11 games: Home....... 7-4 advantage......... -3
prev 10 games: Road....... 7-3 advantage....... +4
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage......... -1
prev 16 games: Road..... 10-4 advantage....... +6 ..(+2 Pushes)
prev _8 games: Home....... 5-3 advantage......... -2
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3
prev _9 games: Road....... 8-1 advantage....... +7
prev _8 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage......... -4
prev 14 games: Road..... 10-4 advantage....... +6
prev _8 games: Home....... 8-0 advantage......... -8
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage....... +4
prev 15 games: Home..... 11-4 advantage......... -7
prev 16 games: Road..... 13-3 advantage...... +10
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3
prev _9 games: Road....... 6-3 advantage....... +3
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3
prev 35 games: Road..... 29-6 advantage...... +23
prev 11 games: Home....... 9-2 advantage......... -7
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage....... +3
prev 10 games: Home....... 7-3 advantage......... -4
prev 11 games: Road....... 9-2 advantage....... +7
prev _4 games: Home....... 4-0 advantage......... -4
prev _8 games: Road....... 5-3 advantage....... +2
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage......... -3
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage....... +4
prev 39 games: Home.... 28-11 advantage........ -17
prev 12 games: Road....... 8-3 advantage....... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage......... -2
prev _7 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2 ...(+1 Push)
prev 21 games: Home..... 16-3 advantage........ -13 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev 17 games: Road..... 11-6 advantage....... +5
prev 15 games: Home..... 12-3 advantage......... -9
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage....... +3
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage......... -3
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3
prev 18 games: Road..... 13-3 advantage...... +10 ..(+2 Pushes)
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage......... -1
prev 19 games: Road..... 15-4 advantage...... +11
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage......... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 25 games: Road..... 17-8 advantage....... +9
prev 10 games: Home....... 7-3 advantage......... -4
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage....... +3
prev 38 games: Home..... 29-9 advantage........ -20
prev 19 games: Road..... 13-6 advantage....... +7
prev 13 games: Home....... 9-4 advantage......... -5
prev 10 games: Road....... 8-2 advantage....... +6
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage......... -2
prev _9 games: Road....... 6-3 advantage....... +3
prev _8 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage......... -4
prev 16 games: Road..... 12-4 advantage....... +8
prev _8 games: Home....... 8-0 advantage......... -8
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev _9 games: Home....... 6-3 advantage......... -3
prev 14 games: Road..... 10-4 advantage....... +6
prev _6 games: Home....... 5-1 advantage......... -4
prev _8 games: Road....... 5-3 advantage....... +2
prev 30 games: Home..... 21-9 advantage........ -12
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 11 games: Home....... 9-2 advantage......... -7
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev _8 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 14 games: Road..... 10-4 advantage....... +6
prev 11 games: Home....... 7-4 advantage......... -3
prev 15 games: Road..... 11-4 advantage....... +7
prev 11 games: Home....... 9-1 advantage......... -8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage....... +4
prev _8 games: Home....... 5-3 advantage......... -2
prev _7 games: Road....... 4-3 advantage....... +1
prev _8 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage......... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 16 games: Road..... 10-5 advantage....... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev 26 games: Road..... 19-7 advantage...... +12
prev _9 games: Home....... 5-4 advantage......... -1
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage....... +4
prev _5 games: Home....... 5-0 advantage......... -5
prev 14 games: Road..... 10-4 advantage....... +6
prev _4 games: Home....... 4-0 advantage......... -4
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage....... +4
prev _6 games: Home....... 5-1 advantage......... -4
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 22 games: Home..... 19-3 advantage........ -16
last. _4 games: Road....... 3-1 advantage....... +2

Home -299 / Road +293


----------------------------------------------------------------------

Updates current to the end of the 07-08 regular season.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JPicks]

I didn't realize the extent to which dogs are covering so far this year. Thanks for this thread. A great tool.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

NP, JP. This is the magic lantern which if you rub at the right time....

 

[abcs]

Do you have the trend when teams play a b2b with the second game being in Denver.. I know its ridiculous.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

LOL, no I dont.

 

[JPicks]

Crazy home/road splits so far. I'm amazed.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The road side had +17 runs twice last season, JP, and a +25 one the season before that. Any kind of similar run around about now would quickly balance things up, so it's a matter of being ready to take advantage if & when such a run correction can be anticipated as being upon us.

 

[Big Wave]

This is the 4th season I'll be tracking Basketball results through the lense of the *Run(-of-Result)s Trend*. For those who aren't familiar with what this is all about, post #2 in this thread pretty much explains everything in depth, as well as can be explained.

Not for all, but for me its now the first pillar for my considering any play.

-------------------------------------------------------

This trend is a method of tracking how Venue, Total & ATS results (sequentially) express themselves, and from there learning the nuances of those patterns of expression to anticipate future results. - Games are ordered time sequentially, and where a number of games start at the same time they are ordered alphabetically, home team first. - All figures based on opening lines - Unassigned results are results which can't yet be said to belong to the current run in place, or be said to constitute a new run, without further results occurring.

- It takes a minimum of 4 results for the dominant side to make for a new run (the exception being to start and end - first & last runs - the season's recording)


The basic marks from the last 3 seasons tracking:

Run advantages -/+....
Normal range .......... 3-6 High range ............ 7-9
Saturation point .... 10+

Run lengths.... Normal range .......... 5-15 High range ........... 16-19
Saturation point .... 20+

The unfavoured total/side/venue within a run.... Normal range .......... 0-3 High range ............ 4-5
Saturation point .... 6+

---------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals
prev _5 games: Under....... 3-2 advantage.... +1
prev 14 games: Over........ 10-4 advantage...... -6
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-2 advantage.... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage....... -3
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage.... +5
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage....... -3
prev 15 games: Under..... 10-5 advantage.... +5
prev 12 games: Over......... 7-4 advantage....... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev 14 games: Under..... 12-2 advantage... +10
prev _6 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage....... -4
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage.... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 5-0 advantage....... -5
prev _9 games: Under....... 7-2 advantage.... +5
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage....... -3
prev _6 games: Under....... 5-1 advantage.... +4
prev 11 games: Over......... 7-4 advantage....... -3
prev 11 games: Under....... 7-4 advantage.... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage....... -3
prev 10 games: Under....... 7-3 advantage.... +4
last. 11 games: Over......... 8-2 advantage....... -6 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Under....... 6-0 advantage.... +6
prev _6 games: Over......... 4-2 advantage....... -2
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage.... +3
last. _4 games: Over......... 4-0 advantage....... -4

No results go unassigned ... Over -45 / Under +54

Still only 1 run this season has reached double-digits for a dominance mark. The present run is sitting in a spot to threatened being the second.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

ATS

prev _4 games: Dog.......... 4-0 advantage.... +4
prev _8 games: Fav........... 7-1 advantage...... -6
prev 10 games: Dog.......... 8-1 advantage.... +7 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Fav........... 4-2 advantage...... -2
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 9-3 advantage.... +4
prev _5 games: Fav........... 4-1 advantage...... -3
prev 18 games: Dog........ 12-6 advantage.... +6
prev 13 games: Fav......... 10-3 advantage...... -7
prev 17 games: Dog........ 13-4 advantage.... +9
prev 27 games: Fav......... 18-7 advantage..... -11 ..(+2 Pushes)
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev 28 games: Fav......... 20-8 advantage..... -12
prev _7 games: Dog.......... 5-2 advantage.... +3
prev 10 games: Fav........... 6-4 advantage...... -2
prev 12 games: Dog.......... 8-4 advantage.... +4
prev _8 games: Fav........... 5-1 advantage...... -4 ..(+2 Pushes)

1 Fav & 3 Dog results go unassigned ... Fav -47 / Dog +40


Unassigned results pretty much spell the end of the present run.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Venue

prev 11 games: Home...... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev _8 games: Road...... 6-2 advantage....... +4
prev _6 games: Home...... 5-1 advantage......... -4
prev _4 games: Road...... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev _7 games: Home...... 4-2 advantage......... -2 ...(+1 Push)
prev _4 games: Road...... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev 11 games: Home...... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev 12 games: Road...... 8-4 advantage....... +4
prev 15 games: Home.... 11-4 advantage......... -7
prev _4 games: Road...... 4-0 advantage....... +4
prev _5 games: Home...... 4-1 advantage......... -3
prev _6 games: Road...... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 11 games: Home...... 9-1 advantage......... -8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Road...... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 10 games: Home...... 6-3 advantage......... -3 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Road...... 5-2 advantage....... +3
prev _6 games: Home...... 6-0 advantage......... -6
prev _8 games: Road...... 6-2 advantage....... +4
prev _5 games: Home...... 5-0 advantage......... -5
prev _5 games: Road...... 4-1 advantage....... +3
prev _7 games: Home...... 4-3 advantage......... -1
prev _7 games: Road...... 5-2 advantage....... +3
prev 11 games: Home...... 8-3 advantage......... -5
prev _6 games: Road...... 4-2 advantage....... +2
prev 10 games: Home...... 6-2 advantage......... -4 ..(+ 2 Pushes)
prev _4 games: Road...... 4-0 advantage....... +4

No results go unassigned ... Home -58 / Road +43


STILL no road run has had a dominance mark above +4 ..... but with the present run sitting like it is, I don't think there's any doubt that here is that sequence buster.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Awefully prophetic notes to the runs...............AMAZING!!!!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

3 season's worth of experience paying dividends, Big Wave:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Excuse my lack of updating this thread from the 30th until now.

 

[AtlHawks]

Excuse my lack of updating this thread from the 30th until now.

You are excused...
Don't think all your work goes unnoticed or unappreciated, you are the man!

Wish you would post more about what you like though...how about just some leans?

:smiley_acbe:I'm sure you hit at a good %.:smiley_acbe:

 

[AtlHawks]

4 straight overs to finish the night.
Looks like some good under opportunities early tomorrow.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

You are excused...
Wish you would post more about what you like though...how about just some leans?

Hawks, I've some pressing "real"-life issues going on at the moment, so the only betting I'm doing is aligned with situations covered in my ongoing threads here at CTG, spots which don't take much work at all to identify because the threads do it for me. Hopefully these things will be cleared within a reasonable time frame and I can get to posting the threads for NBA plays I was doing last season, and before that.:cheers:

And to answer your second post, overs are somewhat down on the season, I wouldnt be suprised to see a big run from them in the near future.

 

[JPicks]

Figured it's been awhile since I came and thanked you again for this.

So thanks BC. :cheers:


This thread pushed me onto both of the unders tonight and first one in the bank and second one looking good. Unfortunately I like the over in the Pacers game tomorrow but the under run will probably keep me off of it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - if the LA/SAS under hits, that'll make the present run +8, therefore in the 7-9 dominance range I mentioned in my latest notation. On balance I'd expect it as likely to end there as carry on to 10+.

As specifically for that Indy Over, I'll leave that and hope it goes well over, because I think you'll see another Miami home under when indy plays B2b the next night (I just think thats more likely if Indy is off 5 straight 210+ games, than 4 & an under).

 

[JPicks]

last. 27 games: Dog........ 20-5 advantage... +15 ..(+2 Pushes)

No results go unassigned ... Fav -78 / Dog +86


That's some crazy stuff BC. Looks like the first 6 dogs of Saturday are going to go 4-2 as well. Have you ever seen a run this extended during your time charting? If so do you think we'll see a prolonged Fav run to balance the action or back to the usual grind of 4 and 5 game swings?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

prev 17 games: Dog........ 17-0 advantage... +17
prev 24 games: Dog........ 20-4 advantage... +16
prev 28 games: Dog........ 22-6 advantage... +16
prev 33 games: Dog........ 24-9 advantage... +15
prev 24 games: Dog........ 18-5 advantage... +13 ...(+1 Push)
prev 26 games: Dog........ 19-6 advantage... +13
prev 18 games: Dog........ 15-3 advantage... +12
prev 21 games: Dog........ 16-5 advantage... +11
prev 27 games: Dog........ 19-8 advantage... +11
prev 22 games: Dog........ 16-5 advantage... +11 ...(+1 Push)

There are the biggest Dog runs from the last 2 seasons, JP (unfortunately I havent got the records for the first season I started tracking, but I don't recall off-hand any ATS run bigger than -/+20). The present Dog run for this season's thread is both easily the longest (36 games) & the highest dominance mark (+20).

prev 45 games: Under... 33-12 advantage...... +21
prev 23 games: Under.... 18-5 advantage...... +13
prev 23 games: Under.... 17-5 advantage...... +12 ...(+1 Push)
prev 17 games: Under.... 14-3 advantage...... +11
prev 19 games: Under.... 14-4 advantage...... +10 ...(+1 Push)

There are the only Under runs from the last 2 seasons that exceeded a dominance mark of +9. The present (+21) streak in this thread is only the 6th in 2 season's, but as you can see only matches the previous highest mark (which again, from my memory for the first season's worth of results I dont have, nothing I recall surpasses it).
However, there has been an Over run of a higher dominance mark (-25), so the observation might be where Overs can go, surely Unders can as well.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

And to answer your question, in previous years when a season's gap of 30+ games opens up, it usually hasnt been long before the side that's down closes it back to under that 30 game mark.

Looking at the context for the present Under run, over the last 6 runs for each side, its -37 vs +48, so even with the present Under run's size considered, it's still not that imbalanced on recent results. And as last season saw Over finish ahead by 50 games, the fact under now leads by 24 on the season I think indicates a general line correction based on last seasons results. So I wouldn't necessarily expect Overs to immediately come back with a whopper of its own (but a -7/-10 run in the near future wouldn't suprise).

As for the ATS situation, the Dog's season lead really isn't significant (at 13 games), so I wouldnt necessarily expect a decent comeback by the Fav anytime soon. But I also wouldn't expect either current total or ATS run to go on much longer at all.

 

[JPicks]

43-18 Under run the last 61 games.

44-20-2 Dog run last 66 games.



:seeya:

 

[JPicks]

BC-any thoughts on the MIA/CLE total? Liking the under and I'd love to hear some reasons from you why it's not a solid play.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - I have little handle on that game. Miami started out 6-0 to Under on the road, and have been almost nothing but Overs there since that streak ended. Cleveland started out almost all Overs at home, and in regulation have been nothing but Under since (5-1). At this stage of the season (2 months worth of results in the books) I'm looking to venue specific trends as my first stop for a clue regarding totals, and CLE has nothing complimentary on that front to offer (CLE is 5-4 to Over @home vs the East, 3-0 to Under @home vs the West). Recent history between the 2 is heavily Under (8-2U L10, but 5-0 in MIA) w/the 2 exceptions in Cleveland.

Sorry I can't offer a definite opinion either way.

 

[divol]

Just wanted to say thanks for the great work you are doing. Many stats to keep track of, but sometimes even lazy guys like me can find jems thanks to all the data you collected here for us.
Thanks and keep doing your great work!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

divol:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

I'm thinking the home favs are about to be 7-2 after tonight. More confidence in GSW than PHO though.

 

[AtlHawks]

Could be setting up for a dog day on FRIDAY...

what you think???

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Hawks - even thou the ATS chart doesnt bretray anything either to the fav or dog, the venue chart suggests a turn towards some road results, after a few days of home dominance, is in order. And at least an equal balance of Over results (13 games, I'd expect 6-7 minimum).

 

[JPicks]

BC if you're around do you have any thoughts on these last two games on Sunday's card. With the Under trend looking like it's headed for a 10-4 run after a 6-2 start to Sunday I'm inclined to think your thread will say "2 Overs go unassigned which pretty much spells the end of the last run" tomorrow.

Hate the stat about the Knicks highest total of the year being 216, but I've got to believe that one of the two late ones clear their total.

I suppose I'd be better off waiting and hoping for two overs to finish the day and look at some overs for tomorrow, but I'm an impatient bastard. Thanks for help.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - this present run pisses me off no end, because now I'm off the GS Under, and I can just see it adding to this present Under run. I don't even attempt to take on Seattle totals at present, but I wouldnt back under given Sac's recent ways (but then, Sea's offensive inconsistency might just be the tonic to help start delivering a few more unders to Sac's record to generate some balanced results to their current heavy Over ways).

I short, I hope every game going goes or stays under, it'd set up some obvious overs in the coming days. The more under approaches a season lead of 40 games, the more I'm confident in the obvious looking overs in coming days.

 

[JPicks]

Good stuff. Thanks for the comments.

So 40+ is a pretty good saturation point for season results? It's getting a bit out of hand. Sorry this run is pissing you off so bad. I just keep waiting for the monster over run, but it hasn't reared it's head quite yet.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Well, it would've have been a large bet so my being pissed is only to a degree (the Knicks can obviously deliver a porous defense along with the best fo them), but I saw no reason not to bet to see something yet to happen in a Knicks game this season.

Overs finished 50 games up overall last season, but 30 of those results were furnished over the final 10 total runs (-55 vs +25) of the season. Its unusual to see such a large gap sustained at this point of a season.

 

[brewer]

overs on a 17-3 run since AS Break

 

[AtlHawks]

Thanks again for posting this shit all the time!

We don't say THANKS enough but KNOW that we appreciate your work.

 

[AtlHawks]

Do the dogs have a chance this season to come back???

It has been favorite city of late and I have been getting killed...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Hawks - I think its a sealed deal the Favs will be up come reg. season's end. Seems to me this is the NBA's equivalent of the NFL's 05-06 season

 

[brewer]

dogs cashing of late it seems