NBA 06-07 Post Road-Trip ATS Thread

[BetCrimes1984]

I gathered these figures together midway through last season in response to the posted belief to fade teams in their 1st game back at home off longish road trips (longish meaning 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a weeks absence from ones own homecourt). Since then my comp blew up, and I lost those figures but have finally got them all together again, with the addition of last seasons complete figures included.

The clear message from these figures is it isn't the 1st game back @home where you want to fade a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures (for the last 3 seasons) are as follows

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 119-97-9 ...... +22

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 96-118-4 ...... -22


The most immediately remarkable fact is that, outside the push results, these figures are almost mirror opposites of one another (Win 119/Loss 118 - Loss 97/Win 96) reflected in the identical overall +/- number for each (a 44 game difference between the 2 sets of figures).


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game, *always* bet them the 1st game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

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All the figures below now updated to incl. all 06-07 season results recorded in post 2 of this thread.

Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................... 36-28-4


As the Fav .......................... 27-18-2
As the Dog .......................... 9-10-2

vs Conference teams ............. 23-18-4
vs non-Conference teams ....... 13-10


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 20-13-2
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 3-5-2

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 7-5
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 6-5


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................... 41-36-3


As the Fav .......................... 26-26-3
As the Dog .......................... 15-10

vs Conference teams ............. 29-19-2
vs non-Conference teams ....... 12-17-1


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 17-15-2
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................. 12-4

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 9-11-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 3-6

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ............................... 15-23-1
Road game ................................ 14-13-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 10-15-1
@Home as a Dog ......................... 5-8

on the Road as a Fav ................... 5-1-1
on the Road as a Dog ................... 9-12


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 11-14
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 4-9-1

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 12-11-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ...... 2-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 7-10
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 4-4

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 3-5-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 1-4

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 5-1-1
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 7-10

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... ----
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 2-2


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ................................ 24-32-1
Road game ................................. 13-9-1


@Home as a Fav ......................... 17-24
@Home as a Dog ......................... 7-8-1

on the Road as a Fav ................... 3-2
on the Road as a Dog ................... 10-7-1


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 14-23-1
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 10-9

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 8-9-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ...... 5-0


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................ 9-17
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ............... 5-6-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 8-7
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-2

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 2-2
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 6-7-1

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 1-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 4-0

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Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................... 29-40-1


As the Fav .......................... 17-30-1
As the Dog .......................... 12-10

vs Conference teams ............. 21-25
vs non-Conference teams ........ 8-15-1


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 14-18
vs Conf teams as a Dog .................. 7-7

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ............ 3-12-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ........... 5-3


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................... 39-31-3


As the Fav .......................... 22-25-2
As the Dog .......................... 17-6-1

vs Conference teams ............ 22-17-1
vs non-Conference teams ...... 17-14-2


vs Conf teams as a Fav .................. 8-13-1
vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 14-4

vs non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 14-12-1
vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 3-2-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ................................ 19-20-2
Road game ................................. 11-18


@Home as a Fav .......................... 10-16-1
@Home as a Dog ............................ 9-4-1

on the Road as a Fav .................... 2-5
on the Road as a Dog .................... 9-13


@Home vs Conf teams ................... 9-15-2
@Home vs non-Conf teams ........... 10-5

on the Road vs Conf teams ............. 10-16
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ........ 1-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................. 4-13-1
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ................ 5-2-1

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 6-3
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 4-2

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 2-4
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 8-12

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 0-1
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 1-1


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ................................ 15-30-2
Road game ................................. 11-12


@Home as a Fav ......................... 12-22-2
@Home as a Dog ........................... 3-8

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 3-3
on the Road as a Dog ..................... 8-9


@Home vs Conf teams .................. 8-20-2
@Home vs non-Conf teams ............ 7-10

on the Road vs Conf teams ............ 7-10
on the Road vs non-Conf teams ...... 4-2


@Home vs Conf teams as a Fav ................ 6-14-2
@Home vs Conf teams as a Dog ............... 2-6

@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 6-8
@Home vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 1-2

on the Road vs Conf teams as a Fav .......... 2-3
on the Road vs Conf teams as a Dog ......... 5-7

on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Fav .... 1-0
on the Road vs non-Conf teams as a Dog ... 3-2



Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 1st game back @Home as a Dog vs Conf Teams: 22-5

West - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs All Teams:18-31-3

West - 2nd game back on the Road as a Fav/Dog vs non-Conf teams: 8-2

East - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs All Teams: 15-26-2

East - 2nd game back on the Road as a Fav vs All Teams: 6-1-1

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Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the below figures are the 4 & 5+ game stats combined)...


Teams in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 3 seasons -

New York ......... 8-0
Seattle ............ 9-2
Golden State .... 9-2-1
Memphis .......... 8-1-1
Denver ............ 5-1
Sacramento ..... 5-1-1

Yes, believe it or not, the New York Knicks are assassins @home first up after a 4+ game road trips.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 3 seasons -

Seattle ........... 2-9
Toronto .......... 2-7-1
Portland .......... 1-6
Miami .............. 2-5
Sacramento ..... 2-5
Utah ............... 4-8
New Jersey ...... 3-6
Orlando ........... 3-6
Houston .......... 3-6

Seattle & Sacramento make both lists (with eerily similar opposing records), easily the best teams to expect to follow these trends faithfully.



Teams bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 3 seasons -

Boston............. 1-7-1
Houston .......... 2-7
Washington ..... 1-5
Portland .......... 1-5-1

Anyone suprised Boston tops this list?


Teams with the best 2nd game records over the last 3 seasons -

Charlotte ......... 5-0
Minnesota ........ 5-1
Golden State .... 7-4-1
Memphis .......... 6-3

Another "bad" team with an undefeated record in their short history tops this list.



Teams overall records

Teams with the best overall records over the last 3 seasons -

Memphis .......... 14-4-1
Golden State .... 16-6-2
Denver ............. 9-2
New York ......... 11-4*
Chicago ............ 6-2

*NYK has a losing ATS record in 2nd games off road trips but their outstanding record in the opposite category (as presented above) means they make this list.


Teams with the worst overall records over the last 3 seasons -

Portland .......... 2-11-1
Washington ..... 3-9
Houston .......... 5-13
Toronto .......... 6-13-1
Boston ............ 6-11-1
Utah ............... 9-15

Each Conference has 3 of the worst overall team records from the last 3 seasons.

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[BetCrimes1984]

The Tracking of this Season's Results (based on opening lines)

I'm back editing in these facts before CHC & NJY have played their 2nd games off their initial road trips.

The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS: they split results over the 2 games...

Off 4 game road trips (last 3 seasons)
Win both ......... 29.2%
Lose both ........ 30.0%
Split results ..... 40.8%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 3 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.6%
Lose both ........ 29.4%
Split results ..... 48.0%

What this means relative to looking to fade teams in their 2nd game off road trips is if they have lost the 1st game ATS, then there is an inertia operating to that team's potential failure in the 2nd game, since only 30% of teams off any kind of 4+ game road trip lose both games. Conversely, a team winning its first game off such road trips further emphasize their likelihood to drop that second game.

As can be seen from the completed results to this point, we've had 6 instances for 5 splits and 1 double loss: still no double winners. Thats why the anomaly of so many 2nd game winners: those teams all lost the 1st game, and the "power of the split" in that situation has exerted itself.


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Results based on opening lines.

MIN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs POR - Won

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NOK - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs WAS - Won

SEA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs UTH - Lost

DEN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs SAS - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs NJY - Won

TOR off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CLE - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs ATL - Lost

NJY off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs BOS - Won

CHC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs NOK - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs POR - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MEM - Won

IND off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ORL - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs POR - Won

ORL off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DET - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs PHX - Lost

ATL off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DEN - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs NYK - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs SAC - Won

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SEA - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs CLE - Won

POR off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs LAC - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs HOU - Won

DEN off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs WAS - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

SEA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs TOR - Won

HOU off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs IND - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Won
2nd - Road Fav vs CHA - Won

TOR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs MIN - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs CHC - Lost

GDS off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs BOS - Won

LAK off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Push
2nd - Road Dog vs SAC - Won

BOS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs CLE - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs MEM - Won

PHI off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DET - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs NYK - Lost

NYK off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs CHA - Lost

LAC off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs GDS - Lost

MIA off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs IND - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs PHI - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs WAS - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs NJY - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost

CLE off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ORL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs NYK - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs POR - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Won

ATL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs ORL - Won

MIN off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs SAC - Lost

NJY off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DET - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs ORL - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SAS - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs UTH - Lost

GDS off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHC - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs ATL - Lost

CHC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs TOR - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs CHA - Lost

LAK off an 8 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs CLE - Lost

LAC off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs ATL - Lost
2nd Game nullified by AS break

BOS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NYK - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs NJY - Won

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs CHA - Won
2nd - Road Dog vs LAK - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs IND - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs CHC - Lost

GDS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DEN - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs LAC - Won

IND off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs CLE - Lost

CHA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Dog vs ORL - Won

SAN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs NJY - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost

CHC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs BOS - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs PHI - Lost

LAK off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs DEN - Lost

SEA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs DET - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost

NJY off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs LAC - Won

DET off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs DAL - Push
2nd - Home Fav vs PHI - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs GDS - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs LAC - Lost

SAC off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIN - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs PHX - Lost

LAC off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs UTH - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs WAS - Won

MIN off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs POR - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs SEA - Lost

WAS off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs PHI - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs TOR - Lost


DEN off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SEA - Lost
2nd - Road Dog vs PHX - Lost

DAL off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIL - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs NYK - Lost


POR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MEM - Lost
2nd - Home Fav vs LAC - Lost

MEM off a 6 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs PHX - Won
2nd - Home Dog vs GDS - Lost

CLE off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs MIA - Lost
2nd - Road Fav vs WAS - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fav vs SEA - Won
2nd - Home Fav vs LAK - Lost

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For this season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips .... 11-16
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ... 12-15

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .... 15-22-2
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ... 14-24

Overall

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .... 26-38-2
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ... 26-39


No excuses for anybody to have gone broke fading teams in either instance.

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[BetCrimes1984]

I'm feeling like its Murphy Law paying a visit.

No sooner than the thread is made *touting* the idea to back teams in 1st games back over doing so in 2nd games back, than the first 3 1st game results are all losses, and the first 2nd game back result is a win.

That said,

Minny's specific spot 1st game back was reflected in a 9-13-1 overall Western spot, and their 2nd game spot had their individual record at 5-1

Seattle had covered 5 straight road games, which takes an awful lot of work, playing their 4th in 6 days, and were facing a well rested team off 3 straight losses. The situational signs were enough for me to ignore their great 1st game back 9-2 ATS mark, and their spot for Western teams overall was only 18-15-1, nothing outstanding.

As for Detroit, pretty obvious they're going through a re-identification phase, I'd say.

Now both Detroit & Seattle are in bounce back spots for their 2nd games. Just goes to show you never base a bet on 1 trend alone.

 

[Killa]

GREAT thread BC, thanks so much.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, Killa. I'm actually about to add some more that explains the anomaly of why so many teams in the small stat pool to date are winning those 2nd games. It'll be in before the latest 2 teams (CHC, NJY) play their 2nd games.

 

[thedegenerate]

so what are the plays?

i was confused when you were at covers and still am. i will figure it out though. lol. thanks

 

[BetCrimes1984]

thedegenerate: If I have write-ups for plays I'm making, I'll create a separate thread for them (except write-ups for totals concerning the 230/100-100 trend, which I post into that specific thread). Otherwise these stat threads are simply to record the results, and act as a capping tool for those who want to reference these figures.

 

[B.A.R.]

Situations to look for:

Teams off one day rest after road trip(4 games or more) and then play on road again next night.

Atlanta:

December 12th vs Denver - Lost
December 13th @ New York - Lost

Chicago:

February 13th vs Toronto - Lost
February 14th @ Charlotte - Lost

Phoenix:

December 15th vs Golden St - Lost
December 16th @ Sacramento - Won

Sacramento:

March 21st vs Minnesota - Lost
March 22nd @ Phoenix- Lost




System ends the season 7-1

 

[B.A.R.]

Also, look at schedules. Crazy road trips this year

Examples:

-Clippers with trips of 6,6 and 7 games
-Memphis 6 game trip all against in-conference opponents

 

[JPicks]

BC. You see anything you like in Portland tomorrow against Indiana. Pacers playing their 2nd game off a 6 game road trip and seem to be an 8 point favorite against Non-Conference opponent. I see a bit of a letdown on the Pacers part as they just ran over the "best" team in the Eastern Confernce and now are big favorites over another team they just handled quite convincly with a b2b against the Cavs following up the game. Actually looks like a strong spot for the dog here imo.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

East - 2nd game back @Home as a Fav vs All Teams: 15-26-2

JP - The above figure represents Indy's spot. Given they won their 1st game back, and splits are the usual end result, from this threads POV alone it would be hard to argue against your thoughts. But POR off a road OT loss on top of a big Road dog win, I can't say I'd be suprised if they put in a lax effort, frankly.

 

[JPicks]

JP - But POR off a road OT loss on top of a big Road dog win, I can't say I'd be suprised if they put in a lax effort, frankly.

That is what they do in general I suppose. I think I like the play mainly with the Pacers going to Cleveland tomorrow on the back end of the b2b. We'll see. Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[B.A.R.]

Teams off one day rest after road trip(4 games or more) and then play on road again next night.

Atlanta:

December 12th vs Denver - Lost
December 13th @ New York - Lost

Chicago:

February 13th vs Toronto - Lost
February 14th @ Charlotte - Lost

Phoenix:

December 15th vs Golden St - Lost
December 16th @ Sacramento - Won

Sacramento:

March 21st vs Minnesota
March 22nd @ Phoenix

Thanks for updating this BC.

If I ever get time I would like to look back on the last 5 years or so to get a better sample. Just started taking this into account last year

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just to note, there are some of the strongest Dog figures in play today regarding the Clippers/Jazz match-up.


For the Clippers
Western team's 1st game back off 5+ game road trips, as a Dog vs Conf opponents, are 12-4 ATS going back 4 seasons (incl. this one)

and

Western team's 1st game back off 4+ game road trips, as a Dog vs Conf opponents, are 24-9 ATS going back 4 seasons (incl. this one)


For Utah
Western team's 2nd game back off 4 game road trips, on the road as a Fav vs Conf opponents, are 2-2 ATS going back 4 seasons (incl. this one)

and

Western team's 2nd game back off 4+ game road trips, on the road as a Fav vs Conf opponents, are 4-5 ATS going back 4 seasons (incl. this one)


While the stats in "Utah's corner" are hardly significant, they do nothing to shore up one's confidence in the face of those regarding the Clippers spot.