MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets Of The Day
Cardinals vs Nationals
Tuesday, September 17 2019 at Busch Stadium
St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.28 ERA) has been reliably bad at home lately where he’s yielded an ERA of 4.50 or higher in each of his last three starts.
Bettors should likewise be wary of Mikolas because the Cards are yielding -5 units in his night starts, whereas he’s a profitable pitcher during the day.
Overall, Mikolas has taken a sizable step back this year. His ERA is up from 2.83 to 4.28 and his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is up .95 points. He’s allowing close to double the amount of homers per nine innings while opponents make more frequent hard contact with his pitches.
A specific key to Mikolas’ regression has been his slider as it’s yielding a .281 BA last year whereas this was a solid pitch for him last year when it yielded a .184 BA. He’s horrible about making mistakes in location with it. This pitch is typically supposed to hit the lowest parts of the zone. But he leaves his slider with over six percent frequency over the heart of the plate.
National batters have built a solid history against Mikolas. In 69 career at-bats against him, their collective BA is .391 and slugging rate .507. Eight different National batters hit at least .333 and slug at least .500 against him. Howie Kendrick, for example, is 6-for-8 (.750).
Washington’s Patrick Corbin (12-7, 3.20 ERA) has been consistently clutch against fellow NL playoff contenders, lately yielding an ERA or 3.00 or better against the likes of Atlanta, Milwaukee, and the New York Mets.
Corbin differs from Mikolas in that he employs a super effective slider. It’s his favorite pitch in terms of its frequency in usage and his success with it. Six of his last seven opponents failed to hit better than .187 against this pitch.
His slider has sweeping movement with some bite and he nails the lowest-left corner of the zone with it 41 percent of the time while staying away from the more middle parts of the plate.
In terms of Cardinal hitters, expect little from Marcell Ozuna, who’s 4-for-19 (.211) in his career against Corbin.
Best Bet: Nationals ML at -105 odds with 5Dimes
Royals vs Athletics
Tuesday, September 17 2019 at Coliseum
Kansas City’s Jorge Lopez (4-7, 6.09 ERA) may seem like he’s in good form. But he’s benefitted from facing most recently an array of weak lineups and losing opponents like the White Sox, Marlins, and Orioles.
In terms of winning teams, he’s most lately faced Oakland, which slammed him for five runs in less than two innings, and a Minnesota team that knocked in two runs in 3.1 innings against him.
Lopez does not possess the stuff with which to measure up against stronger lineups. His biggest problem is command, which is evident in his favorite pitches.
His two most frequent pitches are the fastball and curveball. Regarding the former, its ball rate is 14 percent higher than its strike rate. When he does throw it for a strike, it often lands in the more middle parts of the plate. This mixture of high ball rate and down-the-middle location encourages batters to be more selective at the plate.
Regarding his curveball, ti shares his fastball’s below-average spin rate, which makes it less deceptive, and his fastball’s frequent location down the middle. It also doesn’t enjoy much movement, which entails that batters have an easier time tracking it.
Active Oakland batters have accumulated 16 career at-bats against Lopez and they have eight hits while slugging 1.188. Marcus Semien has hit a homer off him.
Unlike Lopez, Oakland’s Brett Anderson (12-9, 4.07 ERA) has been well battle-tested, recently clashing twice with the likes of Houston as well as with the Yankees, Cubs and Brewers. He’ll face a much softer test in a Kansas City lineup that ranks 27th in runs per game.
Anderon’s general tactic is to induce ground balls, which he does 54.6 percent of the time. One way in which he pursues this tactic is by keeping pitches low at the batter’s knees. His three most frequent pitch locations are in the bottom row of the strike zone.
His favorite pitch is the sinker, which induces grounders with its strong lateral movement and sidespin that encourages batters to swing on top of it.
Barely any Royal batters have seen him. But he matches up well with them because they rank below-average in BA against the sinker from lefties.
Stated broadly, expect an angry Athletic team that is making a push towards the playoffs but lost a ninth-inning lead last night. The A’s will buckle down and take the Royals more seriously. They’ve won three in a row after a loss and have scored a combined total of 22 runs after their last two losses.
Best Bet: Athletics RL at -140 odds with 5Dimes
Cardinals vs Nationals
Tuesday, September 17 2019 at Busch Stadium
St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.28 ERA) has been reliably bad at home lately where he’s yielded an ERA of 4.50 or higher in each of his last three starts.
Bettors should likewise be wary of Mikolas because the Cards are yielding -5 units in his night starts, whereas he’s a profitable pitcher during the day.
Overall, Mikolas has taken a sizable step back this year. His ERA is up from 2.83 to 4.28 and his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is up .95 points. He’s allowing close to double the amount of homers per nine innings while opponents make more frequent hard contact with his pitches.
A specific key to Mikolas’ regression has been his slider as it’s yielding a .281 BA last year whereas this was a solid pitch for him last year when it yielded a .184 BA. He’s horrible about making mistakes in location with it. This pitch is typically supposed to hit the lowest parts of the zone. But he leaves his slider with over six percent frequency over the heart of the plate.
National batters have built a solid history against Mikolas. In 69 career at-bats against him, their collective BA is .391 and slugging rate .507. Eight different National batters hit at least .333 and slug at least .500 against him. Howie Kendrick, for example, is 6-for-8 (.750).
Washington’s Patrick Corbin (12-7, 3.20 ERA) has been consistently clutch against fellow NL playoff contenders, lately yielding an ERA or 3.00 or better against the likes of Atlanta, Milwaukee, and the New York Mets.
Corbin differs from Mikolas in that he employs a super effective slider. It’s his favorite pitch in terms of its frequency in usage and his success with it. Six of his last seven opponents failed to hit better than .187 against this pitch.
His slider has sweeping movement with some bite and he nails the lowest-left corner of the zone with it 41 percent of the time while staying away from the more middle parts of the plate.
In terms of Cardinal hitters, expect little from Marcell Ozuna, who’s 4-for-19 (.211) in his career against Corbin.
Best Bet: Nationals ML at -105 odds with 5Dimes
Royals vs Athletics
Tuesday, September 17 2019 at Coliseum
Kansas City’s Jorge Lopez (4-7, 6.09 ERA) may seem like he’s in good form. But he’s benefitted from facing most recently an array of weak lineups and losing opponents like the White Sox, Marlins, and Orioles.
In terms of winning teams, he’s most lately faced Oakland, which slammed him for five runs in less than two innings, and a Minnesota team that knocked in two runs in 3.1 innings against him.
Lopez does not possess the stuff with which to measure up against stronger lineups. His biggest problem is command, which is evident in his favorite pitches.
His two most frequent pitches are the fastball and curveball. Regarding the former, its ball rate is 14 percent higher than its strike rate. When he does throw it for a strike, it often lands in the more middle parts of the plate. This mixture of high ball rate and down-the-middle location encourages batters to be more selective at the plate.
Regarding his curveball, ti shares his fastball’s below-average spin rate, which makes it less deceptive, and his fastball’s frequent location down the middle. It also doesn’t enjoy much movement, which entails that batters have an easier time tracking it.
Active Oakland batters have accumulated 16 career at-bats against Lopez and they have eight hits while slugging 1.188. Marcus Semien has hit a homer off him.
Unlike Lopez, Oakland’s Brett Anderson (12-9, 4.07 ERA) has been well battle-tested, recently clashing twice with the likes of Houston as well as with the Yankees, Cubs and Brewers. He’ll face a much softer test in a Kansas City lineup that ranks 27th in runs per game.
Anderon’s general tactic is to induce ground balls, which he does 54.6 percent of the time. One way in which he pursues this tactic is by keeping pitches low at the batter’s knees. His three most frequent pitch locations are in the bottom row of the strike zone.
His favorite pitch is the sinker, which induces grounders with its strong lateral movement and sidespin that encourages batters to swing on top of it.
Barely any Royal batters have seen him. But he matches up well with them because they rank below-average in BA against the sinker from lefties.
Stated broadly, expect an angry Athletic team that is making a push towards the playoffs but lost a ninth-inning lead last night. The A’s will buckle down and take the Royals more seriously. They’ve won three in a row after a loss and have scored a combined total of 22 runs after their last two losses.
Best Bet: Athletics RL at -140 odds with 5Dimes
