National Championship Game

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
It's been a fun season more specifically Bowl Season . However I was stupid enough to think BG would compete vs Tulsa. It happens but worse was taking them in the 2nd H. That stupidty should never happen to me. Any time you have a 5.5 fav up 35 at Half and they send out PKem ride the blowout team.

8PM : Ohio State vs LSU : Louisana SuperDome

The two things right off the bat that stick out are the fact the LSU gets the benefit of a home game & The #2 ranked team is the favorite.

When talking about LSU health is something you must focus on. Flynn appears healthy after missing some time including the SEC Championship vs Tenny. Any team that wins a Conference Championship and probably the best conference to boot with its backup QB should be catching some attention. What scars LSU is the bunch of midseason games to the finale where they just didnt look all that super. You know where they had to scratch and claw vs Auburn , Florida , Bama to win . Throw in the SEC Title game and the OT losses to Kentucky and Arkansas. Not all that impressive but then again if your les sthen 100% playing these BOWL teams right after another where is your breather?? When talking Ohio State you have to wonder about the soft schedule they played. There first 7 games were NOT much of a challenge. Probably playing @ Purdue was there biggest game . Then they slowly started getting tougher opponents like Mich State who they really shutdown before some late mistakes made it close. Though after watching MSU play BC you dont get excited about there offense. I think one of there most impressive wins was @ Penn State. Then came Wisconsin who is somewhat down this year and they were tied at 17 to start the 4th but OSU ran away with it scoring 3 times. They played sloppy and were upset by Illinois in a game where everything that could go wrong did. Well what is there marquee win is going to Michigan and winning 14-3. The problem with the win @ Michigan is the Wolverrines really limped into that game dealing with injuries. Not to mention Michigan simply having trouble with Ohio State. If you look at the Buckeyes there last 3 games have to concern you. Tied to start the 4thq vs Wisky , lose to Ill both at home and beat a banged up Mich team but there QB has 50 yards passing.

The way I see it there has to be serious concerns about Boeckman at QB. He threw 3 Ints vs Illinois 156 yds and vs Michigan he threw just 2 passes after halftime finishing with 50yds and a int. Basically Tressel said your not losing this game for us. He had 9 TDs and 8 Ints @ Purdue , Mich State , @ Penn State , Wisky , Illinois and @ Michigan. So clearly the key is Beanie Wells who should be the focal point of the LSU defense. Now ARK ran on them but really no one else did. Of the 6 quality teams Ohio State played they only scored more then 24 vs Wisky and Penn State. Both defenses were not as good as years past. So simply if Wells is held relatively in check how does Ohio State move the ball??

LSU is considered better then Florida this season but I dont think the Michigan game really means much. Michigan limped to the finish line with injuries had a bunch of seniors and coach on his way out.Tough to expect Michigan to not brings its A game. Also making them 10 pt dogs seemed a bit much.

While I love this Ohio State defense has it really been tested? Purdue was overrated , Michigan banged up , and who else is a test for them??

Two things stick out to me LSU poor record ATS telling me they underacheived despite a tough schedule and Ohio State only 7-4 ATS versus what I would consider a somewhat soft schedule. Is laying double digits to Auburn the same as Mich State?

I dont know how good the LSU offense is to be honest cause I didnt see it much. What I do like is there ability to come up big in the 4th quarter and experience.

If Ohio State was to slow for the SEC last year which it is now 0-8 against in Bowls what has changed? They lost Troy Smith and Ginn Jr thats alot of speed, mix in WR Anthony Gonzalez and thats an awful lot of talent gone and the guys who stepped up arent that caliber player IMO..

At the end of the day I dont like the Buckeye offense. Its all about Chris Beanie Wells and that wont be enough against the best defense Ohio State has faced and certainly no eyes were opened in the final 2 games by the Buckeyes. Does the long layoff hurt them again? We saw spirited play from the Titans and Skins defense but if you cant score eventually your opponent makes a play or two.

I like LSU success in Bowl games and remember that Flynn was the QB when they stomped Miami 40-3. So everything points to LSU bewteen experience at key positions and home field edge. Jacon Hester is a solid back and Early Doucet is a talented WR something I think they have an edge over Ohio State in.

Just such a gap in the strength OF schedule some easy games for LSU were South Carolina , Vatech , @ Miss State....not so easy ...

Think LSU wins 27-17.....

Playing LSU -3 (buy it)and possible the UNDER


If I am msissing something please let me know but I just dont see much in Ohio State. Not a good sign when in the last game of the season your coach loses confidence in your QB.:cheers:
 
sport...a few things, in that 2nd half against Illinois, Illinois had the ball for the majority of the second half, OSU was just trying to survive imo, and it was also the week before Michigan...

Tressel ran the ball over and over against Um, OSU dominated from the beginning, the game was never in doubt...Boeckman just had to manage the game. He ran Beanie left, right, middle...UM had no answer....they knew they were going to stop the UM offense so they jsut controlled clock and grinded it out...the weather was also horrible that day.

The reason UM won against Florida and no one will admit it is becasue they changed the offense, they threw Florida off by running a variation of the spread...that's what happens when you get a month off..u tinker.

Tressel knows this..he will utilize Robiskie and Hartline in the short passing game and take advantage of his big back. If it doesn't work I will bet he goes 4 wide and adjusts throughout the game. OSU's oline will stifle the LSU front..these big uglies are good.

I'm glad Flynn is good to go, OSU will blitz and confuse him...I think the qb's are a wash in this game but OSU's oline will dominate imo.

just my 1 cent.
 
Hunt's right, Tressel knew that Beanie was eating Michigan alive. Why stop a good thing?

They are going to rely on Boeckman a lot tomorrow. To say that Tressel won't trust him tomorrow couldn't be more wrong. You fail to look at every other game with Boeckman and only highlight the last three. The Illinois game is a horrible example. This team was winning games because of Boeckman's playmaking, not in spite of it.
 
Well, let's see, I've had a horrible, horrible bowl run, and both you and Tee are on LSU.

I can either buy out thereby almost certainly saving myself money or . . .
 
And you fail to talk about Robiskie who has been unreal for the Buckeyes and their vertical game. Add in Hartline and the added use of Small, this offense has been great this year.

And about speed: LSU plays more smash mouth football then spread you out with speed. These are two similar teams in that view point. To say OSU doesn't have speed is laughable.
 
Tressel knows this..he will utilize Robiskie and Hartline in the short passing game and take advantage of his big back. If it doesn't work I will bet he goes 4 wide and adjusts throughout the game. OSU's oline will stifle the LSU front..these big uglies are good.

I don't think Tressel wants to pass with LSU. Running is how you beat them, and that's what OSU is really good at. I'd think he'd want to simply dominate the line of scrimmage and win that way, no?
 
HUNTDOG said:
sport...a few things, in that 2nd half against Illinois, Illinois had the ball for the majority of the second half, OSU was just trying to survive imo, and it was also the week before Michigan...

Tressel ran the ball over and over against Um, OSU dominated from the beginning, the game was never in doubt...Boeckman just had to manage the game. He ran Beanie left, right, middle...UM had no answer....they knew they were going to stop the UM offense so they jsut controlled clock and grinded it out...the weather was also horrible that day.

The reason UM won against Florida and no one will admit it is becasue they changed the offense, they threw Florida off by running a variation of the spread...that's what happens when you get a month off..u tinker.

Tressel knows this..he will utilize Robiskie and Hartline in the short passing game and take advantage of his big back. If it doesn't work I will bet he goes 4 wide and adjusts throughout the game. OSU's oline will stifle the LSU front..these big uglies are good.

I'm glad Flynn is good to go, OSU will blitz and confuse him...I think the qb's are a wash in this game but OSU's oline will dominate imo.

just my 1 cent.
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Thanks Hunt:

Totally agree that Ill loss was a fluke which is pounded USC cause I knew Ill was getting to much credit.

I disagree slightily with the Michigan game.

Tressel let Todd Boeckman throw just two passes in the second half after the junior quarterback threw an interception and fumbled twice, neither of which Michigan recovered.

I think he lost faith in Boeckman and as you said it was clear Wells could pound the ball and the big TD run early 3rd quarter kinda put the game away. The weather was terrible so why fuck with a good thing.

I'll be the first to admit I never worry about how a coach will gameplan for another team. I simply worry about the value of the line and the situation. My feeling is worrying about what a coach will do is like trying to figure out what kind of stuff a SP will have on gameday. I prefer to sift through the info and hope my determination puts me onthe right side. Like tonight you hear things like Tulsa players had to come back from break 5 pounds lighter and you know this game meant alot for them. However how the fuck do you something like that unless your involved? Same thing with worrying about schemes. fo rme Michigan just had way to much talent and motivation factored in with inflated spread for me.

The thing with Tressel going 4 wide is he said its tough to do this year cause he lost Ginn and Gonzalez . The talents just not there to take advantage of.

I like Flynn cause he has played in this atmosphere before.

Gonna be interesting....:cheers:
 
Goopster24 said:
Hunt's right, Tressel knew that Beanie was eating Michigan alive. Why stop a good thing?

They are going to rely on Boeckman a lot tomorrow. To say that Tressel won't trust him tomorrow couldn't be more wrong. You fail to look at every other game with Boeckman and only highlight the last three. The Illinois game is a horrible example. This team was winning games because of Boeckman's playmaking, not in spite of it.
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Here's were we differ winning games when you have talent means shit to me. Boeckman won the game @ Penn State and IMO not much more this year. It's like boasting for beating a JV athelete when your on Varisty. Wisky , Mich St , Penn State all nice little teams but they arent the best CFB has to offer . I highlight the last three cause they were probably his toughest opposition. Lump his 6 toughest opponets together and he has 9TDS and 8 Ints....I am supposed to praise him for playing well vs Northwestern , Minnesota, Youngstown St, Akron, etc....not me...its only my opinion....
 
Joe Public said:
Well, let's see, I've had a horrible, horrible bowl run, and both you and Tee are on LSU.

I can either buy out thereby almost certainly saving myself money or . . .
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hey I could be wrong...win or lose I am happy with my analysis this bowl season something like 24-4 ATS..
 
Goopster24 said:
And you fail to talk about Robiskie who has been unreal for the Buckeyes and their vertical game. Add in Hartline and the added use of Small, this offense has been great this year.

And about speed: LSU plays more smash mouth football then spread you out with speed. These are two similar teams in that view point. To say OSU doesn't have speed is laughable.
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I dont think I said they didnt have speed as much as they lost alot of speed. To which if the point was Florida was to fast for them on both sides of the ball last year then how is this a better matchup? Thats from what was written about the title game last year .

Well is Robiskie or Hartline a 1st round draft pick now like Gonzo and Ginn were last year?? In the top 6 opponents game he has has 21 catches for 275 yds and 4 TDs hardly all american numbers. Not down playing the kid but I need more. Hartline has 2 TDS in those games.
 
Joe Public said:
Tressel knows this..he will utilize Robiskie and Hartline in the short passing game and take advantage of his big back. If it doesn't work I will bet he goes 4 wide and adjusts throughout the game. OSU's oline will stifle the LSU front..these big uglies are good.

I don't think Tressel wants to pass with LSU. Running is how you beat them, and that's what OSU is really good at. I'd think he'd want to simply dominate the line of scrimmage and win that way, no?
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Hands down the toughest team the Buckeyes have faced. Whether I am correct or incorrect I dont feel Tressel wants thegame in Boeckman's hands. I think LSU mainly beats itself but thats opinion. Arkansas played there best game and Kentucky caught them off Fla .

I think OSU will struggle to score....
 
JP, I gotta think he tries to run and LSU, and you can run on LSU...even with a healthy Dorsey.

I agree SN, will be interesting...I know we cap differently at times, and I definitely respect your viewpoint.

I throw motivation out the window, I have learned...especially this bowl season, once you step on that field both teams play to win, no one is laying down.

I agree with Goopster...I think Hartline and Robiskie are extremely underrated and Tressel really didn't need to use them much this year because of the dominant defense and solid running game...tresselball... but when Boeckman was on it was a thing of beauty.

As much as I love Miles, I think he is good for 1 or 2 bad decisions this game, he has gotten away with murder quite a few times this year.

look forward to discussing more tomorrow.
 
I honestly don't look at opponents this year that much either...I mean this is the wackiest season ever....hell kansas played no one, they won the bowl game, WVU played no one, destroyed oklahoma, Michigan lost to APpy state healthy as ever, and beat Florida...anything can happen.

I do know LSU can be scored on though...the great defense is a misnomer imo...I also think O47 is a gift on the turf as well, but won't mess with it.
 
Boeckman is the key bc the Buckeyes will have to run the ball. If Boeckman can pass then the Buckeyes will have no problem running

Henton (backup qb for bucks in Troy smith mold) should be getting some snaps against LSU. Running qbs did VERY well against LSU this year. I am counting Mcfadden as a qb bc he took 85% of the snaps from the qb position.

The Buckeyes are just as fast as LSU. Florida did not have more speed than the Buckeyes last year, the Buckeyes just weren't ready for that kind of speed. Two completely different things.
 
HUNTDOG said:
JP, I gotta think he tries to run and LSU, and you can run on LSU...even with a healthy Dorsey.

I agree SN, will be interesting...I know we cap differently at times, and I definitely respect your viewpoint.

I throw motivation out the window, I have learned...especially this bowl season, once you step on that field both teams play to win, no one is laying down.

I agree with Goopster...I think Hartline and Robiskie are extremely underrated and Tressel really didn't need to use them much this year because of the dominant defense and solid running game...tresselball... but when Boeckman was on it was a thing of beauty.

As much as I love Miles, I think he is good for 1 or 2 bad decisions this game, he has gotten away with murder quite a few times this year.

look forward to discussing more tomorrow.
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The only part about motivation for me is what team actually gains something from winning. You know a program like CMU wants a Big Ten win. Absolutely agree every other team besides BG comes to play. In the end though the better talent has won out.

Its a good point about Tressel ball and maybe I am missing that they will open it up. Not a big fan of Miles by any stretch . I just go back to how Boeckman seemed to let Michigan State back in the game , how he couldnt really get it done vs ILL and depsite rough weather a poor 1st H vs Michigan. He looked awesome vs Penn State but I cant read in bewteen the lines when there is no extra value in the line. I do alot of times when I think a line is to fat .

We have tmrw...:cheers:You guys know way more then me about the programs I am not even getting into those discussions..lol
 
HUNTDOG said:
I honestly don't look at opponents this year that much either...I mean this is the wackiest season ever....hell kansas played no one, they won the bowl game, WVU played no one, destroyed oklahoma, Michigan lost to APpy state healthy as ever, and beat Florida...anything can happen.

I do know LSU can be scored on though...the great defense is a misnomer imo...I also think O47 is a gift on the turf as well, but won't mess with it.
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I loved both KU and WVU so I disagree they played no one. Its more about how they played everyone on there schedule and if they lost why they did. KU had no chance vs Mizzou cause the Tigers were peaking. Just like Mizzou had no chance vs OU cause they couldnt play at such a high level 2 weeks in a row. I knew OU was overrated and WVU catching to much shit for losing to a decent and upcoming Pitt squad who could have done better with some QB play.

Being that I have just been on wrong on 4 sides so far I dont really see much suprising from the Bowl Season. What helps me is not being as knowledgable as most others. I just look at the body work and factor in why performances happen....

I dont think LSU defense is great especially when it travels...just not impressed by OSU offense.....yet!
 
ClevelandsBest said:
Boeckman is the key bc the Buckeyes will have to run the ball. If Boeckman can pass then the Buckeyes will have no problem running

Henton (backup qb for bucks in Troy smith mold) should be getting some snaps against LSU. Running qbs did VERY well against LSU this year. I am counting Mcfadden as a qb bc he took 85% of the snaps from the qb position.

The Buckeyes are just as fast as LSU. Florida did not have more speed than the Buckeyes last year, the Buckeyes just weren't ready for that kind of speed. Two completely different things.
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I think thats why I was trying to say but failed to do so about the speed. I didnt mean it quite so literally. Interesting stuff didnt realize McFadden took so many snaps as QB...

BOL
 
I gotta say I had a hard time figuring what this line should be...

Think if Fla and Ohio State played it would be a PK so figured LSU a bit stronger then Fla and some home field edge in there then -4 made sense....
 
SportsNut said:
I gotta say I had a hard time figuring what this line should be...

Think if Fla and Ohio State played it would be a PK so figured LSU a bit stronger then Fla and some home field edge in there then -4 made sense....
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Also factor in that public perception played a huge role in this opening line. Everybody is pretending like this is last years game. Line started at 6 and dropped pretty quickly. I think 3 is a solid number due to LSU playing a better schedule, being basically at home, and being a more balanced team than the Buckeyes
 
ur killing it this year in bowl season SN...congrats bro..and you definitely make a valid case for your pick and I understand it..go with what you know.

I honestly don't think you can compare last year's FLA team and this years LSU team...that Florida team last year was undefeated and really peaked at the end and never gave up 50 points in a game although that was triple OT (LSU/KY)

This years Florida team lost 4 games, they weren't that great either...just a very sexy team with urban, harvin and tebow. I really don't think there was a dominant team in the SEC...very even all the way.
 
SportsNut said:
I think thats why I was trying to say but failed to do so about the speed. I didnt mean it quite so literally. Interesting stuff didnt realize McFadden took so many snaps as QB...

BOL
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Look at Tyrod (sp?) Taylors (Va tech) stats vs LSU running the ball
Look at Tebows running
Look at Dmac's running

All of them did very well against LSU. Dorsey wasn't hurt for all those games. Of course a month off can change a lot of things. Henton is a 6'2 232 pound qb with speed and has been doing VERY well in practice leading up to this game. It is not documented how much he will play since he is a RS Freshman and hasn't played except a couple plays this year.
 
Trust me only mean if I am wrong then so be it. The only game anyone cares about is your last one..Very true about the SEC squads but I feel that OSU offensively is a shell of what it was...sometimes I think LSU just couldnt catch there breath it was big game after big game. They kept Tenny in check which I thought swayed me....
 
I also wanted to mention everybody keeps talking about LSU getting healthy (not sure if you did) but forget that Beanie Wells had a bad ankle for the last 6 games. He is also healthy now FWIW
 
Good stuff Cle. Its an option but I dont think it changes the outcomes much whether they ran it much or didnt.......

Also dont think LSU is favored because of public perception. Both teams snuck in the title game and LSU having 2 losses doesnt look so good IMO....I think most will be on Ohio State and that is what has driven the line down....also kinda unfair if you ask me LSU is in there own backyard. Cant imagine how with Ohio State's schedule they could have stronger power ratings then LSU..
 
Rankings dont mean much but LSU played 7 teams ranked 17th or better while OSU played just 3 ranked teams all 23 or 24th at the time they meet.
 
Nuts, some great points you got here, I just have a bunch of random thoughts that apply to responses in this thread.


I have see the argument beind made by OSU fans that they will "show up" this yr, its the damn National Championship, if you can't "show up" then you don't belong. They showed up last yr, they just were not the better team. If they didn't "show up" last yr, how does that reflect on the sweatervest?

The line opened at -3, got bet up to -6 then came back down, I am 100% sure that the line opened at -3 at BetCris

I think OSU qb inexperience will be a factor here, Beanie will not have his way up the middle with a healthy Dorsey and LSU is very fast to the outside. Case can be made that Flynn is just as inexperienced since they are both 1yr starters but Flynn is an old old man who not only has starting experience, he has prior bowl experience as well and long time system and learning experience.

LSU getting healthy is a lot bigger deal than Beanie playing on a bum ankle. Flynn has been hurt the whole season whether it be shoulder or ankle, the Dorsey cheapshot certainly hampered him down the stretch, Early Doucet going out for a stretch of 3-4 games is a killer because the other WR's are real young. Beckwith also missed a few games as well. Those are more serious injuries to overcome than playing with a bum ankle.

I don't think Robiskie or Hartline are big enough threats vertically to stretch LSU defense with 2 lockdown corners in Zenon and Jackson.

I don't think this game will be a blowout like last yr and it will be close throughout. They are playing infront of atleast a 75% pro-LSU crowd and that is something worth paying a little attention to.

Does anyone feel like there is pressure on OSU to win? They aren't going to be the 3rd team in the last yr to lose a National Title game are they?

How can I forget that Miles can't be happier than to play OSU, being that he is a Mich Alumni.

At the end of the day, I liked LSU by a score of 27-20
 
HUNTDOG said:
JP, I gotta think he tries to run and LSU, and you can run on LSU...even with a healthy Dorsey.

I agree SN, will be interesting...I know we cap differently at times, and I definitely respect your viewpoint.

I throw motivation out the window, I have learned...especially this bowl season, once you step on that field both teams play to win, no one is laying down.

I agree with Goopster...I think Hartline and Robiskie are extremely underrated and Tressel really didn't need to use them much this year because of the dominant defense and solid running game...tresselball... but when Boeckman was on it was a thing of beauty.

As much as I love Miles, I think he is good for 1 or 2 bad decisions this game, he has gotten away with murder quite a few times this year.

look forward to discussing more tomorrow.
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MILES - a HUGE weakness
From there you are hoping and wishing in the same sentences
Lets see how good those WRs are against pro corners.....cant wait.
its obvious you are basing everything on an Arkansas game that had 4 of our defensive starters healthy. You want to say we cant stop the run pull up stats from the beginning of the season and not the end.
 
aplous said:
Of those 7 ranked teams LSU played, how many times did they cover the number?
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When LSU got hurt they did stop covering the number.
Like maybe 8 games straight they failed to cover in the regular season.
So is the ball going to hit red for the 9th straight time?
This logic is simply making my finally feel confident in laying points with the better team ACROSS the board......minus coaching.


I would rather beat a ranked team by 6 with a line of -9 than crushing a directional Michigan State A&M by 40 week after week after week.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I honestly don't look at opponents this year that much either...I mean this is the wackiest season ever....hell kansas played no one, they won the bowl game, WVU played no one, destroyed oklahoma, Michigan lost to APpy state healthy as ever, and beat Florida...anything can happen.

I do know LSU can be scored on though...the great defense is a misnomer imo...I also think O47 is a gift on the turf as well, but won't mess with it.
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I agree, the over is the best bet of the night. People don't respect the osu O plus BOTH defenses are over-rated.
 
aplous said:
Of those 7 ranked teams LSU played, how many times did they cover the number?
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Thats a fair point and I think I mentioned LSU was overvalued all season which makes it tough to understand there true value.

#9 VaTech W48-7 (-11)
#12 SCar W 28-16 (backdoor TD with less 2 to play) (-17.5)
#9 Fla W 28-24 (-8)
#17 Kentucky Loss in OT (-10)
#18 Auburn W 30-24 ( late TD pulls out the W) (-10.5)
#17 Bama W 41-34 (-6.5)
#14 Tenny W21-14 (-7) Flynn Out

This just pulled from YahooSports so it could be off .

ATS only 2-4-1 .

Starting with Florida and ending with Bama was 4 consecutive weeks. I wonder if ARK was just knocked from the rankings and that was there motivation for playing there best game of the year.

Didnt LSU start the season by knocking out the oppsing starting QBs 5 straight times??

Sometimes scores can be misleading. Without even looking at total yardage I concluded LSU sloppy play was the primary reason tams gave them games. Sometimes total yards can clear that up.....

VaTech 598 to 149
SCar 360 to 261 ( SCar led the 4Q 136 to 12 , 80 yds on there last drive)
Fla 391 to 314
Kentucky 403 to 375
Auburn 488 to 296
Bama 475 to 254
Tenny 464 to 343

Outgained 513 to 413 vs Arkansas

Something I noticed in both the Bama and Auburn games is those offense were able to string about 5 long drives for scores togther ( combined) . Other then that they did next to nothing when they had the ball. Hard to understand why LSU allowed these long drives at times and dominanted the others. So really no one amassed HUGE yardage totals on them outside of Arkansas. We can assume that Kentucky had about just more then 300 in regulation.

Ohio State
#23 @ Purdue W 24-7 (-7) ( late TD to avoid shutout) 381-272yds
#24 @Penn St W 37-17 (-3) 453-263 yds Impressive
#23 @Michigan W 14-3 (-4) 279-91

They played all fringe top 25 teams and had very low spreads granted they were road games . Look at the BOWL games these 3 teams played and think about the spreads in those games. I guess we can chalk the Purdue game up to Tressel ball since they jumped out to a 2 TD lead. Still Boeckman had 3 INTs. The most impressive game is Penn State but the Lions weakness was clearly there pass defense. Nice performance by Boeckman that day. The game vs Michigan had some subplots since Ohio State has owned them , was off a SU loss nd Michigan was limping in. Henne and Hart both didnt play @ Wisky. You know regardless of there health they would give it a go vs Ohio State since there class was 0-3 now 0-4 vs them. Tough to glorify that win for me. If you dont think Mich was getting cheap little respect this year see the number vs Purdue and the fact notoriously poor away team Penn State was favored at the Big House!

So I agree Ohio State did perform relatively well vs ranked teams but the biggest number was -7. That was basically LSU lowest number. It was expected LSU to play perfect ball especially after such a quick start and the numbers even with injuries and a tough schedule made it tough to play at such a high level every week. LSU was 13 pt favs vs Arkansas and a team like Miou was only -3 who finsihed playing excellent ball. Granted LSU was home but still...

:cheers:
 
sharpie said:
I agree, the over is the best bet of the night. People don't respect the osu O plus BOTH defenses are over-rated.
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I think I will stay off the total. Ohio State hasnt been tested on either end of the ball like they will be tonight. LSU seems to have a history of sloppy play as well.....
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Nuts, some great points you got here, I just have a bunch of random thoughts that apply to responses in this thread.


I have see the argument beind made by OSU fans that they will "show up" this yr, its the damn National Championship, if you can't "show up" then you don't belong. They showed up last yr, they just were not the better team. If they didn't "show up" last yr, how does that reflect on the sweatervest?

The line opened at -3, got bet up to -6 then came back down, I am 100% sure that the line opened at -3 at BetCris

I think OSU qb inexperience will be a factor here, Beanie will not have his way up the middle with a healthy Dorsey and LSU is very fast to the outside. Case can be made that Flynn is just as inexperienced since they are both 1yr starters but Flynn is an old old man who not only has starting experience, he has prior bowl experience as well and long time system and learning experience.

LSU getting healthy is a lot bigger deal than Beanie playing on a bum ankle. Flynn has been hurt the whole season whether it be shoulder or ankle, the Dorsey cheapshot certainly hampered him down the stretch, Early Doucet going out for a stretch of 3-4 games is a killer because the other WR's are real young. Beckwith also missed a few games as well. Those are more serious injuries to overcome than playing with a bum ankle.

I don't think Robiskie or Hartline are big enough threats vertically to stretch LSU defense with 2 lockdown corners in Zenon and Jackson.

I don't think this game will be a blowout like last yr and it will be close throughout. They are playing infront of atleast a 75% pro-LSU crowd and that is something worth paying a little attention to.

Does anyone feel like there is pressure on OSU to win? They aren't going to be the 3rd team in the last yr to lose a National Title game are they?

How can I forget that Miles can't be happier than to play OSU, being that he is a Mich Alumni.

At the end of the day, I liked LSU by a score of 27-20
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Ohio St got beat last year cause they, and everyone else in the country, thought the NC game was actually the Michigan game. Tressell has been quoted about when he knew OSU was in trouble and his response was "the day after the Michigan game". He couldnt get them hungry after the spectacle of that game and the teams perception that they had already earned the crown.

Also, Hartline is not a deep threat he is an underneath receiver, and not as good as gonzalez was last year. Robo is a deep threat and not because of his speed, more because of his heighth, balance, and concentration. The speed guy is Ray Small. He will run with or maybe out run any of the speed receivers in the country. He has Tedd Ginn type of speed.

The OSU offense is dangerous when its clicking, the key is turnovers. Everyone wants to mention their lack of explosiveness, but if you watched all of their games, they moved the ball at will against all of their opponents this year. The games that ended close were the games they threw ints. The Ill game wouldn't even have been a loss without the INTS.

All that being said, I do think LSU pulls out a squeeker.
 
ETG : Nice work.


I think OSU qb inexperience will be a factor here, Beanie will not have his way up the middle with a healthy Dorsey and LSU is very fast to the outside. Case can be made that Flynn is just as inexperienced since they are both 1yr starters but Flynn is an old old man who not only has starting experience, he has prior bowl experience as well and long time system and learning experience.

LSU getting healthy is a lot bigger deal than Beanie playing on a bum ankle. Flynn has been hurt the whole season whether it be shoulder or ankle, the Dorsey cheapshot certainly hampered him down the stretch, Early Doucet going out for a stretch of 3-4 games is a killer because the other WR's are real young. Beckwith also missed a few games as well. Those are more serious injuries to overcome than playing with a bum ankle.

Very valid point in trying to figure out LSU. They had some key injuries and yet expectations didnt seem to adjust.

I think Flynn having played in the Bowl win vs Miami is huge. For the all crap we give Les Miles his Bowl wins @ LSU have been fairly impressive in some ways. He beats Miami 40-3 and the Hurricanes defense is never terrible and then last year beating up Notre Dame. So he is a loose cannon but he won convincingly in big ones. One note on Boeckman and you can read this stuff in alot of the early season comments and postgames is that they guy didnt play in a football game for like 5 years before this. He said it took him time to adjust to the speed of the game and getting hit. Almost saying playing felt a little foreign. Then you look at what I call his 6 toughest opponents and he had 9Tds vs 8 Ints. This would seem to be the best defense he has ever seen. While you can say that about Flynn he has at least faced a bunch of pretty good ones starting with Miami a few years back and the lieks of VaTech and Auburn this year.
 
sharpie said:
Ohio St got beat last year cause they, and everyone else in the country, thought the NC game was actually the Michigan game. Tressell has been quoted about when he knew OSU was in trouble and his response was "the day after the Michigan game". He couldnt get them hungry after the spectacle of that game and the teams perception that they had already earned the crown.

Also, Hartline is not a deep threat he is an underneath receiver, and not as good as gonzalez was last year. Robo is a deep threat and not because of his speed, more because of his heighth, balance, and concentration. The speed guy is Ray Small. He will run with or maybe out run any of the speed receivers in the country. He has Tedd Ginn type of speed.

The OSU offense is dangerous when its clicking, the key is turnovers. Everyone wants to mention their lack of explosiveness, but if you watched all of their games, they moved the ball at will against all of their opponents this year. The games that ended close were the games they threw ints. The Ill game wouldn't even have been a loss without the INTS.

All that being said, I do think LSU pulls out a squeeker.
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When its clicking...very true. Now look at the teams they played were there really any good defenses in there? Penn State possibly the best defense they played...well maybe Illinois. Other then that Wisky defense is way down and doesnt travel that well , Michigan uhm no...they have had few tests....just my opinion.....

I think its a valid point about Michigan being there NC. However thats a terrible attitude to have. They played them at home and those kids should have know the challenge is beating a good team in a tough enviroment. I still think the losses of Smith , Ginn and Gonzo have left the team without the same offensive exploviness ....maybe I am wrong but thats how I feel..
 
SportsNut said:
So I agree Ohio State did perform relatively well vs ranked teams but the biggest number was -7. That was basically LSU lowest number. It was expected LSU to play perfect ball especially after such a quick start and the numbers even with injuries and a tough schedule made it tough to play at such a high level every week. LSU was 13 pt favs vs Arkansas and a team like Miou was only -3 who finsihed playing excellent ball. Granted LSU was home but still...
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i think this is a very telling sign that LSU is a much better team in the eyes of the linesmakers than tOSU. there has got to be a reason why linemakers had LSU's lowest number at -7, but had tOSU biggest number at -7. i know their opponents make a difference, but tOSU was never more than a 7 pt. fav against even the easiest of ranked opponents they had to play.....

i will be on LSU at whatever the line is at when i get home from work tonight. i appreciate all the insight and analysis on the game SportsNut.

GL!:cheers:
 
SportsNut I really think I finally have a feel for this game.

I expect LSU to drive for a few first downs and possibly get a field goal or a punt from midfield. From there it will be field position until near the end of the 1st Quarter. I could see OSU getting up 7 - 3 midway through the 2nd Qtr. LSU will answer but its possible we only get 3. So I could see 7 - 6 for OSU at the half if its not 10 - 10 or so. I think the 2nd Half as it has been all year will be when LSU gets things clicking. I think this is an under game through and through but havent played it yet as I fully expect a defensive or special teams Touchdown.

I really think we may not see much scoring until the 2nd Half.

Great work by the way.
 
SportsNut said:
When its clicking...very true. Now look at the teams they played were there really any good defenses in there? Penn State possibly the best defense they played...well maybe Illinois. Other then that Wisky defense is way down and doesnt travel that well , Michigan uhm no...they have had few tests....just my opinion.....

I think its a valid point about Michigan being there NC. However thats a terrible attitude to have. They played them at home and those kids should have know the challenge is beating a good team in a tough enviroment. I still think the losses of Smith , Ginn and Gonzo have left the team without the same offensive exploviness ....maybe I am wrong but thats how I feel..
Click to expand...

No, you're right that they aren't as explossive as last year, but there is a bad misconception that they are this plodding, ball control, field position offense because thats what they were back in 02 when they beat miami.

Yes, Penn St. has a very good D and they torched it. Wisky's D proved they aren't that bad and played well against Tenn the other day right?

That being said, this team is a year away. No one in OSU circles expected the opportunity this year. Also, I think all of the value from the OSU perspective is gone @3. The value play is LSU -3
 
Being a buck fan, my concern is how good is the OSU D, really? I have more questions on how they will handle LSU than I do about how OSU will score. OSU WILL score tonight.
 
Sharpie : I guess being that I dont follow the programs that closely my opinions are based mainly on what these teams have done . Sort of a group of reading box scores , post games and pregames coupled with expectations going into the game from a betting prospective.

You guys have way more knowledge then I about the sport. I was telling JoePublic this the other day that in Football or capping football the most truest statement ever was Denny Greens " they are what they thought they were" statement. You go over the data and couple it with what the betting market is telling you as far as how the line is set and there are just NOT many suprises. Teams who overvalued fail but they key is identifying that. Now that whole rant is basically me saying that teams form identities and usually at the end of the day the boxscore will represent that identity.

Whether Ohio State can do or cant do certain things isnt that a huge of a concern. While Boeckman has talent especially throwing it deep you can twist the fact he has 9 TDs and 8 Ints versus better competition so much. So if he has been mistakes and this is a tougher challenge then the others why would the mistakes not continue? Especially when coupled with the fact people would like to dismiss it....

As far as the Wisky D can we really say they played well? Its odd they allowed 21 at half and none in teh 2nd H but not seeing it I cant know why. Tenny had about 500 yards of offense as well. So was it Wisky's defense or Tenny being inept on offense? Not sure . Minnesota , Penn State and Ohio State all scored 30 + on them. I dont look at a teams home stats when comparing there road games. So to me there road defense was very average at best.

Your last sentence is great. After a year of seeing things unfold we tend forget alot of what we started out thinking. LSU was supposed to be here and Ohio State well there offense was in transition but we knew there Defense would be much better with the experience .

:cheers:Good stuff.....
 
Thanks Mogo and P&G. Good Luck today.

I am really not a fan excpet for the teams I am rooting for that day. Mogo I always fall back on the linesmakers know what they are doing and sort of critique what happens for a team to cover or not a cover a spread..:cheers:
 
I think it comes down to which quarterback makes less mistakes. I really don't think Flynn is that good. He has come up big in spots, but 17 td's to 10 int's and only a 55% completion rate. Boeckman is 23 td, 12 int, 65% comp rate. Both of these defenses are opportunistic. I actually think Perrilloux is a harder matchup to stop.
 
Great points about the yardage differences they have had over their opponents from start to finish.......

Not sure what to think when I see a team that def. has a talent edge over pretty much everyone, they outgain everyone, they haven't really been healthy, so it is tough to tell how good they really might be, but they dont really cover the number much (only thing that matters to us). Makes me think maybe Miles is slightly clueless.....who knows.

Really is a toss-up game, if there was a full slate of action I doubt most folks would touch this.
 
With you bro... Only play is to take the better team here... :smiley_acbe::cheers:
 
Racermafia said:
I think it comes down to which quarterback makes less mistakes. I really don't think Flynn is that good. He has come up big in spots, but 17 td's to 10 int's and only a 55% completion rate. Boeckman is 23 td, 12 int, 65% comp rate. Both of these defenses are opportunistic. I actually think Perrilloux is a harder matchup to stop.
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I like how LSU has rallied late and you cant do that w/o good QB play. Forgetting the overall stats because the teams played two very different schedules. Flynn didnt have his best WR Doucet for about 5 games. Look at the defenses he played against Miss St , VTech ,SCar , Fla , Auburn , Alabama and the 2nd tier arent terrible ones Arkansas , Tenny , Ole Miss , Kentucky...Ohio State 1st 5 games were Youngstown St , Akron , Minnesota , Northwestern and Washington..

I really dont want to start guesing what type roles the backup QBs might have...if they make a play or two fine....:cheers:
 
Goopster24 said:
Comparing the Jayhawks schedule to the Bucks is insane. Give me a fucking break.
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Not sure where I said that. I can say that if I did any sort of comparision the point was Kansas got grief over there soft schedule but they took care of business blasting teams that were infrerior. Ohio State did not really do that early struggling vs Young St and Akron . Just like people claim KU played no one and didnt deserve to be in the game vs VT the same can be said that Ohio State didnt play anyone to deserve this game. Outside of @ Penn State and @ Michigan who could have possibly beaten OSU this year? Really at most they were looking at a 2 loss season. Michigan was a big disappointment , Purdue didnt beat anyone at least KU road oppnenst could say they knocked of Oklahoma , Texas and well Okie State almost had Texas...

Sorry you dont agree but there schedule's were NOT very different. Road games at a ranked Kansas St , Colorado , A&M , Okie State is not much different the @ Minnesota , @ Purdue , @ Penn State , @ less then 100%Michigan and @ Washington. They played Youngstown State , Northwestern , Akron , and Kent State at home with Ill and Wisky at home there " tough games " . Oh they lost one of those tough games and were tied to start the 4th Q in the other. Wisky is so good on the road they struggled to beat Minnesota and UNLV while losing the other three... KU played an easy home schedule but they smoked those teams 393 -79 and were barely playing past the 3rd quarter. Ohio State had slightily tougher tasks with Mich State , Ill and Wisky but at the end of the day they are still medicore Big Ten teams. KU started slow vs Missouri and finished strong then they led wire2wire vs VaTech.

I dont know where this is going but hey its all about results for me....

I think you look at KUs season and walk away impressed with how they handled there schedule rather then who they played. No one would say KU is so good cause of the blowouts but it is a knock on them if they had some struggles like Hawaii did. Lots of schools have soft schedules but it comes down to how you take care of it in my opinion.
 
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