If Russia draws or loses, how do they advance? A win puts them in great position, but they’ll be fighting from behind if Salah can somehow play in the group at all since Egypt has the Saudis last.
If Salah misses the opener vs URU and returns for RUS, that seems like the game for the runner-up. Assuming Russia win the opener, a loss there puts both at 3 points and then URU would still need to play its top line even if it wins the first two to ensure avoiding Spain in the round of 16 while Egypt gets the worst team in the group.
Scenario 1: RUS win-draw, URU wins both
URU +3 vs EGY, +3 vs SA = 6 vs RUS
RUS +3 vs SA, +1 vs EGY = 4 vs URU
EGY 0 vs URU, +1 vs RUS = 1 vs SA
SA = 0 vs EGY
URU clinched the advancement, but still plays to avoid Spain and if they beat RUS bad enough then EGY can win and advance on GD
Scenario 2: RUS draw-draw, URU wins both
URU +3 vs EGY, +3 vs SA = 6 vs RUS
RUS +1 vs SA, +1 vs EGY = 2 vs URU
EGY 0 vs URU, +1 vs RUS = 1 vs SA
SA = 1 vs EGY
Uruguay rotates, but if Russia draws and Saudi Arabia or Egypt wins then they are out.
Scenario 3: RUS draw-draw, URU doesn’t win both
URU +1 vs EGY, +3 vs SA = 4 vs RUS
RUS +1 vs SA, +1 vs EGY = 2 vs URU
EGY +1 vs URU, +1 vs RUS = 2 vs SA
SA = 1 vs EGY
Uruguay plays everybody and either winner of the bottom can jump Russia if they don’t beat the group favorite or can advance on GD
Thoughts?
