August 2020 - July 2021 Soccer Picks
- Thread starter ~Utah
- Start date
For 5/9
Wolves +0.5 (-134) to win 1 unit
Villa +0.5 (+108) to bet 1 unit
West Ham +126 to bet 1 unit
Arsenal -1 (-128) to win 1 unit
Rennes +1 (-114) to win 1 unit
Koln +112 to bet 1 unit
Mainz +0.5 (+101) to bet 1 unit
Hertha -110 to win 1 unit
Genoa +0.5 (-129) to win 1 unit
Verona Pk (+124) to bet 1 unit
Roma -1.5 (-107) to win 1 unit
Juventus -124 to win 1 unit
Real Madrid -104 to win 1 unit
Wolves +0.5 (-134) to win 1 unit
Villa +0.5 (+108) to bet 1 unit
West Ham +126 to bet 1 unit
Arsenal -1 (-128) to win 1 unit
Rennes +1 (-114) to win 1 unit
Koln +112 to bet 1 unit
Mainz +0.5 (+101) to bet 1 unit
Hertha -110 to win 1 unit
Genoa +0.5 (-129) to win 1 unit
Verona Pk (+124) to bet 1 unit
Roma -1.5 (-107) to win 1 unit
Juventus -124 to win 1 unit
Real Madrid -104 to win 1 unit
For 5/23
Brighton +0.5/+1 (-107) to win 1 unit
Aston Villa +1/+1.5 (-108) to win 1 unit
Newcastle PK +105 to bet 1 unit
Leeds -1 (-110) to win 1 unit
Crystal Palace +2/+2.5 (-107) to win 1 unit
City -1.5 (-123) to win 1 unit
Sheffield PK (-101) to wi 1 unit
Southampton +1/+1.5 (-120) to win 1 unit
Wolves PK/-.05 (-107) to win 1 unit
PSG -2 (-105) to win 1 unit
Brighton +0.5/+1 (-107) to win 1 unit
Aston Villa +1/+1.5 (-108) to win 1 unit
Newcastle PK +105 to bet 1 unit
Leeds -1 (-110) to win 1 unit
Crystal Palace +2/+2.5 (-107) to win 1 unit
City -1.5 (-123) to win 1 unit
Sheffield PK (-101) to wi 1 unit
Southampton +1/+1.5 (-120) to win 1 unit
Wolves PK/-.05 (-107) to win 1 unit
PSG -2 (-105) to win 1 unit
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Great work mate
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
With you on Les Bleus, allez mon ami.
ive been using 5dimes/BAS for years now and the half push was never an option. For some reason I’m not a lover of the half push - talk me into it
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
well i'm trying to do the math on it, but don't have that level of analysis in my being
It's obvious to me that -110 you must win 53% to profit slightly, +100 only 50.01% and -120 54.6%
What i struggle to work out is with 0.5 +105 vs 0.75 -120
How worth it is it to lose by a single goal and only lose 1/2 of your stake (i am betting everything risk 1.1x to win XXX in this sport) vs losing your full stake on a single goal loss? Winning 1.1x *1.05 = 1.16x when you win vs 1.1x *1/1.2 = 0.92x
Scenarios
| 0.75 | 0.5 | |
| NED 2-0 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| NED 1-0 | -0.55 | -1.1 |
| 0-0 | 0.92 | 1.16 |
So you're trading 0.55x on a single-goal loss for 0.24x less when you win. This goes against my thesis of making bets on coinflips at or above even money and trying to pick up those pennies on each transaction thus being +EV over time, but it seems to make sense even despite the higher required win rate to be profitable
this time it was due to limited options because I didn’t have the choice of -1.5 for some reason
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
please feel free to correct me on what i wrote, the thing is if you make those trades a lot to get extra insurance then we probably will need to hit at a rate that is nearly impossible to reach.
Think i'm in for paying extra juice to 1 since that's a key number, but must be odds sensitive for everything else
Think i'm in for paying extra juice to 1 since that's a key number, but must be odds sensitive for everything else
it certainly limits your risk I think… don’t feel like doing the math though. think it depends on what kind of gamblers you… if you are hitting at a lower rate then I would certainly say this is the way to go. It feels to me like surrendering on a 15 or 16 against a face card… your odds of playing that way of winning money are less but you also potentially limit your losses… I’m sure there’s someone smarter then me out there