My UCL and UEFA Cup Plays

N

NIMFH

Pretty much a regular
Hey;
following the trend of having monthly or weekly threads, I'm going to stick to this thread for the whole season and post my European club competition plays in here.

I will post the day's plays and the overall record in the first window, and use the others for discussion and write-ups.

For recordkeeping purposes, I'll start with November 4's games, which I posted in another thread. I usually flat-bet, to win one unit on favorites and to bet one unit on plus-money plays.

Season record: 16-31-1, -2.05 units

December 10th;
I'm running late, so the write-ups won't be anything to call home about.

Went 4-5-1 on the day, for a .25 unit profit with the posted plays, 4-4-2 for a .75 unit profit with the actual plays.

Villareal at +185 for a unit, Villareal/Celtic Over 2.5 Goals at -150 to win .5units; ManU has an easy game, so Villareal needs to win this game by a wide margin to have a shot at first place. Celtic needs the win to make it to a UEFA Cup berth. I expect a wide open game with many goals being scored, and Villareal prevailing.

Note: I actually bet Over 2 goals, making it a push, but I will count it as a loss since that is what I posted here.

ManU/Aalborg Over 3 goals at even odds for a unit; again, a play based on the superior home team needing a strong goal average to clinch first place.

Steaua/Fiorentina Draw at +210 for a unit; Fiorentina can clinch a UEFA Cup berth with a draw, and I expect them to come out in full catenaccio mode. Might make a small play on the 0-0 proposition.

Bayern Munich at +165 for a unit; First place is in play here, but I believe Lyon is looking ahead to their weekend match against Marseille. Juninho won't start and Benzema is doubftul.

Porto/Arsenal Over 2 goals, to win a unit at -150 odds; both teams have hit their stride recently, and I expect a high quality match. Only reason I'm not playing the Over 2.5 is I'm afraid both teams might put it on cruise control if there's a 2-goal advantage early.

Fenerbahçe at +265 for a unit; ownership is giving the team a $2M bonus for winning this game. In a team filled with mercenaries, that is enough for me.

Real Madrid at -110 to win a unit (crappy line, again); I automatically play any home team with a new coach.

Juventus/BATE under 2.5 Goals at +110 for a unit; Juve needs one point to win the group, and I don't expect much more from them.
 
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November 5th mini write-ups

Kiev-Porto:
These teams' results, as of late, have been polar opposites. Kiev is dominating its domestic competition, having scored at least three goals in each of its last 5 games, and having kept 4 shutouts. Porto, meanwhile, hasn't won a game outside the Portuguese Cup in over a month. So, why Porto, in a game where they've had to travel all the way across Europe, against a scorching hot team? I believe they are ready for their breakout performance. Their backs are against the wall, and for a team that relies heavily on emotion, this should bring the best out of the players. It's early in the season, but Porto knows that its season is on the line tonight, and I expect them to establish the rhythm early and let their superior individual talent, particularly Lucho Gonzalez, dictate the outcome of the match.

Fiorentina-Bayern Munich:
Fiorentina has played some crappy football the last few weeks, and I like to fade "modest" teams playing in at least three competitions, as is the case here. I think this squad peaked last year, and this season will be quite the disappointment. Bayern, on the other side, has finally become accustomed to Klinsmann's system, and I believe they are doing a great job of maximizing its potential. A win here gives a tremendous boost to a well-managed team that should really get up for this games. At these odds, this is a hard wager to pass up.

Lyon-Steaua:
Steaua is coming off a pathetic meltdown against this same squad, and they have a new coach in place now. Anytime I have a new manager with plus money on the +1 goal line, I play it. Bonus points for the revenge factor.

Aalborg vs Vila-Real:
This play is pretty straightforward. A decidedly sub-par team against an elite team that is coming off a good, old fashioned butt whupping in the Spanish Cup. The Spaniards have lost all hope in the Spanish Cup and the focuse has shifted towards the UCL and getting out of group play in first place. A big win here would definitely boost their hopes, and they know they need a good amount of scoring, in case first place should be decided by goal average. The plus money is just icing on the cake.

I'll go ahead and paste what I wrote about the other games in another thread.

BATE Borisov vs Zenit:
BATE is another case of a value play. Zenit have the talent, on paper, to win this game easily, especially when considering the fact that the Champion's League is really the only competition where they can make any8positive) noise now that they're out of contention in their domestic competition. This team reminds me a lot of last season's FC Barcelona, a team who enjoyed great success not that long ago but who, faced with difficulties, have already checked out mentally. Arshavin, who should be the heart and soul of the team, started the competition off with a negative attitude after his opportunity to cash in after a good Euro showing was shot down by Zenit management, and I think his attitude has trickled down to his teammates.

That being said, I think BATE's homefield advantage will be a huge factor, especially now that the opponent has already taken a mental beating. This is a strong side at home, and they're not particularly prone to mistakes. If they stick to a conservative gameplan and execute like they've shown me they can, I believe there is a 50% chance of a win. At those great odds, that would be hard to pass up.

I think you could sum up this wager with the following equation: overrated Zenit team + homefield advantage + underrated BATE team = value.

Real Madrid vs Juventus:

The Madrid/Juventus play is similar to the Marseille/Eindhoven one, reasoning-wise. Madrid has the homefield advantage, but they cannot execute worth a damn lately, and the team is in disarray. Juventus will probably come out and wait for Madrid to take the driver's seat, and I think their defense is strong enough to frustrate Madrid. If Madrid had any other goalie, I would play Juventus, but things being as they are, I think the reasonable play is a draw.
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Dinamo Kiev vs FC Porto- FC Porto, bet 1 unit to win 2.2 units
Fiorentina vs Bayern Munich- Bayern Munich, bet 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Lyon vs Steaua Bucarest- Steaua +1, bet 1 unit to win 1.98 units
BATE Borisov vs Zenit- BATE, bet 1 unit to win 3.15 units
Aalborg vs Vila-Real- Vila-Real -1, bet 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Real Madrid vs Juventus- Juventus +1 (+120), bet .75 units to win .9 units, Juventus ML (+440), bet .25 units to win 1.1 units
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Thanks GC. I really like the fact that both the Juve game and the Porto game went pretty much as I predicted, although Porto had to see their season flashing before their eyes before pulling out all the stops to win. I did underrate Fiorentina something fierce. I ignored the fact that it's been two years since Villareal won an away game in the UCL, and paid for it with a unit's loss. As far as the Steaua game and the BATE game, both of them were situational/value plays, and early on it looked like they both had a good chance to cash in, so I can't get too mad about them. All in all, I went 2-4 for a gain of .2 units.
 
November 6th UEFA Cup leans

Spartak Moscow vs Udinese:
I am not a connoisseur of the Russian league, but I know damn well, having looked back at their results, that they haven't played anyone of note in that competition, and they drew in their one UEFA Cup match against a very beatable foe. Meanwhile, Udinese is on a hot streak and is no stranger to top flight European competition, having been in the UCL as recently as three seasons ago. Udinese is very solid in the midfield, which can keep Spartak from playing at their preferred, quick pace. Udinese's offense has shown it can thrive even when they don't control the ball for large stretches, since they have been very effective when it comes to execute. While the homefield advantage in Russia is a strong factor, this Udinese team has played well in the trenches of Milan, Turin and Florence over a good length of time, so I don't think the cold and a small (by top-flight European football standards) yet packed stadium will faze the Italians. I am leaning very hard on Udinese at +195 odds. I'm also looking at the under in this game, maybe even Under 1.5 goals at +220 odds.

Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa
These are two inconsistent teams, capable of anything at any given time. On their best days, Villa is better than Slavia, and lately that best has been on display, although the pessimist in me can see that they've overachieved up to this point. Slavia has performed according to plan, starting their domestic competition with mostly strong results, particularly the 1-4 thumping of Sparta. The way I see this match, these are two teams who are coming to a bit of a halt in their level of play. In a neutral field, Villa takes the game, but I think Slavia will use the homefield advantage to at least salvage a point. At this moment, I'm leaning towards the Draw at +235 odds.

Lech Poznan vs Nancy

I really like this spot for Nancy. They are very inconsistent in domestic competition, but are built for a short competition like the UEFA Cup. They are accustomed to better competition than whatever this group has to offer, and I believe Lech will be in for a rude awakening in their first UEFA Cup match of the year. Nancy is a young and motivated team, while Lech is a team that does just enough to win, although they don't have bad days: they are either good or they are horrible. All in all, I think Lech might crumble in their first encounter with good competition, and I'm leaning towards Nancy at +180 odds.

Standard Liege vs Sevilla
Standard is exactly what they're expected to be, a team from a low-tier league that usually beats the field in domestic competition yet doesn't measure up to the elite UEFA teams. Sevilla has been a disappointment early on, but they're known for slow starts and concentrating on one competition. They seem not to care about the Spanish Cup, having played last week's match with pretty much the worst starting eleven you could assemble with that roster. They are coming off a dry spell, and I think they've realized the Spanish League is out of the question with the way Barcelona and Valencia are playing, which makes me believe they'll come out with extra motivation to do well in this competition. Furthermore, Sevilla would be better served to clinch their spot in the next round as early as possible, because they're not too far off a La Liga stretch in which they'll face Valencia, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villareal in consecutive matchdays. While they probably aren't in contention for the league title, they still aim for a UCL qualifying spot, and that stretch will be stressful enough without the added pressure that anything less than three points here would bring. In this situation, I am taking a long, hard look at Sevilla at +110 odds.

I'll have thoughts on some other games, as well as my final plays tomorrow. Good Luck to everyone.
 
Racing Santander vs Schalke 04
Racing absolutely sucks at home this season, having come away with 2 points in four matches. They're no world-beaters away either, but for some reason their homefield has decidedly not been an advantage thus far. While their big win against Valencia this past weekend was a good start, their defense is banged up and their best player, Garay, will not be available tonight. Schalke will be at full strength, and eager to salvage a season that started with great expectations and quickly went downhill when Atletico sent them home from the UCL with a 4-0 dismantling. Much like Sevilla, Schalke could benefit greatly from a win here, because things are starting to get interesting in Bundesliga play and the earlier they can clinch a qualifying spot, the earlier they can turn their attention to domestic competition. Racing, to me, will have their hands full just trying to avoid relegation in La Liga, and I don't think they stack up against Schalke, which is, to me, a Top 3 team in the UEFA Cup. I am currently considering a play on Schalke 04 at +140 odds.
 
AC Milan vs Sporting Braga
This play might be way out there, but Milan has yet to convince me it's as good a team on the field as it is on paper. Braga has impressed me this season, and I think anyone who saw the beating they gave Portsmouth will be with me in saying that its defense and midfield are amongst the most solid you'll find in the UEFA Cup. While Milan is on a good streak, none of the teams it has beaten since the start of UEFA Cup play is on the level of Braga, and in the last three games they've narrowly eked out wins against subpar competition. The level of play at the top of Serie A has gone down this season, and I believe Milan will come out of the gate expecting to win without putting forth much of an effort, and Braga will probably turn out to be tougher than they expect. At this point, I think I'll be playing the Draw at +430 odds.
 
Thanks for the info Nimph, very good info I will follow you on Nancy & Schalke...GL
 
This was yet another awful day thanks to a goddamned last minute goal, this time coming from Milan.

November 6th UEFA Cup plays
Spartak Moscow vs Udinese- Udinese, bet 1 unit to win 1.95 units
Lech Poznan vs Nancy- Nancy, bet 1 unit to win 1.7 units (updated odds)
Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa- Draw, bet 1 unit to win 2.3 units (updated odds)
Standard Liege vs Sevilla- Sevilla, bet 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Racing Santander vs Schalke 04- Schalke 04, bet 1 unit to win 1.4 units
AC Milan vs Sporting Braga- Draw, bet 1 unit to win 4.3 units

Parlay- Valencia to win, Udinese under 2.5 goals, Feyenoord over 2.5 goals, bet .5 units to win 1.97 units
 
Manchester United at Vila-Real;
ManU has played 17 games against Spanish teams in Spain. They have won one, against a rather pitiful Deportivo team. Usually I'd throw away any trend that goes back more than a year or two, but we must note that Alex Ferguson has been United's manager since Mary Tudor wore diapers, and the style of the team has not changed much. For the past two decades, the makeup of ManU has been pretty much the same; some of the best role players around and a superstar the team revolves around (Cantona, Beckham, now Ronaldo). The point of this rant is, Alex Ferguson's brand of football hasn't worked against Spanish teams, and that style has not changed, so we shouldn't expect different results this time around. Add to that that Vila-Real has been looking ahead to this game to basically clinch the group lead (as evidenced by 0-3 score this weekend) and a banged up ManU, and I think the sensible wager here is the home team at plus 220 odds.

Juventus at Zenit;
Not much of an opinion here. If Zenit has any heart left, today is the day it has to come out, and everything is in their favour. The homefield advantage is huge when the temperatures are well below 0 degrees celsius, Juve has little to play for and is missing 7 starters. I don't trust Zenit, but if I had to make a play, it would be them at -115 odds.

Celtic at Aalborg;
Homefield advantage is not something I take into consideration in this matchup, since Celtic is used to playing in front of crowds twenty times as raucous as the one they'll be seeing tonight. Both teams are pretty similar, and they already showed that they are a notch below top competition with their 0-0 stinker a few weeks ago. I don't expect many highlights in this game, and I don't expect much scoring either. I believe Celtic to be slightly superior, but not enough to collect the three points. I'll likely be playing the Draw at plus 230 odds.

Steaua Bucarest at Bayern Munich;
Again, not a whole lot of insight here. Doubt Steaua can't compete, don't like the odds on Bayern, but I won't rule out Bayern putting up a strong performance to improve their goal average should the first place come down to the tiebreaker. Leaning towards Bayern -1.5 at plus 105 odds.

Lyon at Fiorentina;
I really like Lyon to come out strong here and clinch their spot in the next round. Italian teams don't do well playing in desperate situations because their schemes can get thrown out of whack, and Lyon has been very good off a loss lately. The French League isn't their playground anymore, and I think they realize they need to make a statement in the UCL. I will be playing Lyon at plus 250 odds.

Real Madrid at BATE;
Madrid is in disarray, and they are trying to get their coach fired ASAP. They are banged up, their most efficient player is out for the year, their second best can't play two games without tweaking something, they have been getting by thanks to the referees and they're playing in awful weather. The only precedent of Madrid in this weather here is the 4-0 Kiev gave them a few years ago, and while they won't get blown out, I'll be glad to fade them for a half unit on BATE at plus 550 odds and a half unit on the Draw at plus plus 280 odds.


Kiev at Arsenal;
not much to say here. Arsenal are in a funk and they get a subpar team at home. I love Arsenal -1.5 at plus 127 odds.

Porto at Fenerbahce;
if you have a clue, let me know...

Final Plays;
Vila-Real, bet 1 unit to win 2.2 units
Olympique Lyon, bet 1 unit to win 2.5 units
Aalborg/Celtic Draw, bet 1 unit to win 2.3 units
Bayern Munich -1.5, bet 1 unit to win 1 unit
Arsenal -1.5, bet 1 unit to win 1.1 units (updated odds)
BATE/Real Madrid Draw, bet .5 units to win 1.4 units
BATE, bet 1 unit to win 6.25 units (updated odds)
Fenerbahce, bet 1 unit to win 1.5 units

2-7, -2 units. Had an own goal by Celtic to thank for yet another awful day in which I catch a sick moose.
 
November 26th;

Werder Bremen at Anorthosis;
Anorthosis are in fine form lately, while Bremen are spectacularly inconsistent and have been for the better part of two seasons. A win tomorrow clinches a spot in the next round for Anorthosis, and the draw against Inter certainly boosted this squad's morale to a new level. They play a tidy game and will exploit any defensive mishaps, which is something Bremen is certain to provide. I really like Anorthosis to come away with the three points at home, and I will be taking them at plus 275 odds.

Barcelona at Sporting
POSSIBLE HOMER ALERT: This is the biggest game in Barça's season. Why? Sevilla, Madrid, Valencia, Vila-Real are its four next opponents in La Liga, and they need to be extremely focused to widen the gap between them and the direct competition. How? Win this game and clinch first place in the group, which would then render the Shaktar game meaningless. Barça is the superior team, and I trust Guardiola to rally the troops, and will be taking them for a very large play at even odds.

Eindhoven at A.Madrid
Neither team could stop an NCAA squad from scoring. Atlético's stars will eventually bust out, and I believe today is the day. Eindhoven hasn't been too great on offense, but Dutch teams tend to perform when playing against a Spanish team, since both countries' offensive philosophies are quite similar. I trust them to go Over 2.5 goals, at -114 odds.

Final Plays;
Anorthosis, bet 1 unit to win 2.4 units (updated odds)
Shaktar/Liverpool/Inter parlay, .5 units to win .75 units
Atlético/PSV Over 2.5, bet 1.14 units to win 1 unit.
FC Barcelona, bet 6 units to win 6 units.

Finally had a decent day, going 2-2 for a tidy 5.5 unit profit.
 
Thanks cinderfella. It was the biggest bet I have ever made, and I can tell you when Sporting brought it within 1 score I started to sweat bullets. If this had happened to last year's squad, we would have dropped that game. This year, however, they just pressed on and had our 6th 5-plus goal game in less than three months. I really love the makeup of this team, and am on them heavy to take both the UCL and La Liga.

I'm eyeing a few UEFA Cup games for today, anything on your radar?
 
Good luck bud!!!

Even if I also don't see them!

I've taken the over first half Barca even with the rested players. Let's see now how it will end up.

:cheers:
 
December 9th plays;
Atlético Madrid, bet 1 unit to win 2 units
Atlético/Marseille Over 2.5 goals, bet .5 units to win .5 units
Liverpool, bet .5 units to win .78 units
Liverpool/PSV Over 2.5 goals, bet .5 units to win .55 units
Sporting Lisbon, bet 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Anorthosis, bet 1 unit to win 4.5 units
Roma, bet 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Inter Milan, bet 1 unit to win 1.65 units

Small parlay, Atlético, Liverpool, Sporting, Anorthosis, Roma, Inter, bet .1 unit to win 43.2 units

Wound up being a passable day, 4-5, for a .2 unit profit.
December 9th thoughts

Cluj at Chelsea;
I'm not going anywhere near Chelsea at -1250 odds, and I don't see the value in the handicap, since I would have to play the -2.5 to go near plus money, and I don't see it happening. Cluj have no hope of staying alive in European competition, having lost both H2H games with Girondins. Chelsea will go all out, needing the three points to hold on to any hope of going on to the next round as the group champion, and I expect them to lay a good beatdown on Cluj. As I said, I see no value in the game odds, because I don't rule out a fluke-ish score from Cluj, but I might be playing the Over 3 goals at even odds.

Girondins Bordeaux at Roma;
To clinch first place, Roma needs to win this game. It's that damn simple. Serie A is not looking too good right now for this team (or anyone not from Milan, for that matter), and they need this first-place finish to avoid Barcelona, Liverpool, either ManU or Vila-Real and Arsenal. Roma dismantled Bordeaux at home, and I really don't expect anything different here. Bordeaux has clinched a UEFA Cup spot and they're not moving up under any circumstance. Motivated home team plus away team with nothing to play for makes me lean heavily towards Roma at -170 odds.

Anorthosis at Panathinaikos;
Panathinaikos have hit their stride in the UCL, coming off strong wins at Milan and in Germany. Anorthosis have been very consistent, losing only in Milan while drawing on the road against everyone else. These gys are playing for their UCL lives, since the winner goes on to the next round and the loser gets a UEFA Cup spot as the consolation prize. Anorthosis soundly beat Panathinaikos in their first meeting, 3-1, and I think they have a very good shot at a repeat performance here, since they've shown that being on the road doesn't exactly rattle them. I'm leaning towards Anorthosis at plus 450 odds.

Inter Milan at Werder Bremen;
Inter still need to clinch a first place finish, and winning is the only way to ensure said spot. The Germans don't have any motivation to play besides avoiding yet another humilliating home defeat, but from what I've seen they don't have anything left in the tank. I'm leaning towards Inter at plus 165 odds.

Sporting at Basel;
Neither team is moving up or down, so it boils down to who wants it more. Basel, in my humble opinion, is the worst team ever to play in this competition, and they already had their one fluke performance, playing Barça to a draw. While Sporting has clinched a spot in the next round, I think they want to redeem themselves from their loss in the previous Gameday, and will go all out for the win. I'm likely to go with Sporting at plus 145 odds.

Shakhtar at Barcelona;
This is the one game all season where I wouldn't feel confident backing Barça. I know the team's mentality has switched and that they apparently don't overlook opponents anymore, but the Getafe game did nothing for me to buy that theory. Barça is resting 8 players, including Victor Valdés, who right now is the best GK in Europe in my opinion. Pinto isn't a bad keeper, but there has to be some rust when the guy has only played the Copa del Rey matches. I don't think I have it in me to fade Barça anywhere, much less at home, but I certainly won't be backing my team in this spot. If anything, I have a small lean towards the Under.

Liverpool at PSV Eindhoven;
Both teams need the win here, Liverpool to fight for first place and Eindhoven to fight for a UEFA Cup berth. I think Liverpool might be a wise plays with nice odds, but I think the Over is the way to go. PSV's defense is in shambles, and while Liverpool isn't exactly an Over machine, they can exploit this week defense. Small lean towards Liverpool at plus 155 odds, probable play on Over 2.5 goals at plus 110 odds.

Atlético Madrid at Marseille;
Like many Barça fans, I have a soft spot for Atlético. I really wish they get the win today, but I'm still debating whether to make a play on them or not. Simao and Assunçao are not playing for Atlético, and Forlán and Agüero are unlikely to start, while Niang is out for Marseille. The whole Santos Mirasierra issue cannot be taken lightly, since even Gerets has admitted this game has a special meaning because of it. Marseille will come out with a vengeance, but Atlético has probably realized they don't stand a chance in La Liga or Copa del Rey (they get Barça in the next round), so I expect them to put up a very strong performance. I like the Under too, with the defensive lineup from Atlético and the injuries to Marseille's forwards and striker, but I'm held back by the fact that the more emotional a match is, the easier it is to see defensive mistakes. Small lean on Atlético at plus 200 odds (crappy line from biased local...).
 
Thanks, sucks about the first half over. If it had been any other team I would have faded Barça, but I can't do that to the home boys. I hope this loss creates some value for the Madrid game, but I doubt it.
 
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