My selection for the Kentucky Derby

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Gyno

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My choice for this years Kentucky Derby is...





#9 Overanalyze
overanalyze-4_3_r536_c534.jpg


If the expected rain comes through then this 3yr old colt by Dixie Union will be awfully tough to beat. Overanalyze has a good resume, he is a
3 times graded stakes winner (Futurity, Remsen and Ark Derby G1) the only other 3 times graded stakes winner is Goldencents. So overanalyze is already a very accomplished colt. He should sit a good trip tracking leaders and then should make a swooping move right before the stretch, thats a move Bejarano does a lot. His Ark Derby win was won in a slow time but the pace was really slow almost 113 after 6f's.. He was 5 wide most of the way and picked off the horses one by one and closed on a slow pace.. He won the race pulling away and was impressive winning by 5 lengths. His final furlong time was 12 and 3. (12.72)

He breezed a 46 and 4 and all the clockers are quoted saying it was a very impressive work. Was a very easy impressive workout. I think Overanalyze is sitting on a big effort...

He has a lot of things I look for in a Derby horse. He has the two preps before the Derby angle, has a good 2yr old resume, he is battle tested, trainer who knows what he is doing, good breeding, good final workout and not a short price.

He is currently @ 20-1, I'm very happy with those odds.
 
#3 Revolutionary is my 2nd choice..
Has already proven that he can overcome adversity, has Borel and should love a wet track.

#16 Orb is my 3rd choice...
Everyone says he is doing well and he looked good winning the FLA Derby, style suits this race.. Good trainer, great jock. Definite contender..

#12 Itsmyluckyday is my 4th choice
..
Consistent horse who wasn't fully cranked in last, I think lucky will be in the money but I don't think he is good enough to win. Definitely use this one is gimmicks.

I'm wondering if #11 Lines of Battle is worth a little wager to win. Probably not and has a ton of history against him but still, hes a very nice horse.
 
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