My plays today...

[TailBait]

Hey guys, finals are over here at school and I couldn't be happier. Won 4 bills on a Hornets/Celtics/Lakers ML parlay, so I decided to throw down a little on these parlays: I also played Cleveland -4 for 110 and Utah -4 for 110

4-TEAM PARLAY: $84.00 $511.00
CLEVELND-CAVS (GM-6) -4
UTAH-JAZZ (GM-6) -4
S-A SPURS (GM-6) -400
ARIZONA D-BACKS -180 $84.00 $511.00

4-TEAM PARLAY:$150.00 $822.00
T-BAY DEVIL-RAYS u8½+110
CLEVELND-CAVS (GM-6) -175
UTAH-JAZZ (GM-6) -175
S-A SPURS (GM-6) -400 $150.00 $822.00

 

[B.A.R.]

GL man

 

[TailBait]

I think the home team dominance will continue tonight and tomorrow, so I like the Spurs, Jazz, and Cavs to win at home. I love Webb tonight on the hill, he is on fire. As far as the Rays/Yankees under, I think Kazmir is coming back around and will keep the Yankees bats at bay (no pun intended.) Jeter is in a bad slump, Abreu, Posada, and A-Rod will not be playing today. I look for the game to go UNDER 8.5 as the Yankees want to finish this series up and get on the plane. It seems as if early games that are the last in a series tend to go under.

 

[TailBait]

I'll look for a chance to hedge if I make it into day 2, so input will be welcomed......

 

[Slug]

if your looking to hedge, why even do it. i never understand that. just make it a smaller parlay if you don't want the high risk/high reward of a 4 teamer.

 

[TailBait]

why would you not want to guarantee your money? it's nice to take no risk....hedging is a good way to make money, ever study the stock market?

 

[Slug]

I understand that, but your not doing yourself any favors adding a 4th team to a parlay if your gonna hedge out of it.

4 teamer
100-1000
hit the first 3
play 550-500 on the opposite side of the 4th leg

parlay wins, you make 450
hedge wins, you make 400

3 teamer
100-600

you win 600



that is what i don't understand.

 

[TailBait]

I moneylined the favorites, so a hedge is easily done on day two by moneylining the dog.....I don't quite understand what would be wrong with hedging a four teamer since I have the favorites moneylined....I'm pretty confident in the home teams in the NBA, but why not take the risk out of it? I'm just not on the same page, but I appreciate the advice.....keep it coming

 

[Slug]

parlaying the fav and ML'ing the dog as a hedge doesn't change the concept. You will be making less in your parlay and more in your hedge. There is nothing wrong with hedging, i'm just suggesting that if you know your gonna hedge out of the last leg, its not worth adding the last leg.

 

[TailBait]

When I hedge, I usually just hedge enough to cover my initial bet....hit the parlay or break even....I like the added value a 4th team gives in a parlay, do you not think it is worth it? It makes the payout much more lucrative.....

 

[TailBait]

Rays are killing the ball...no more scoring...

 

[Satyr]

I agree with Slug, mathematically, on the long run (even on the shorter run) you are limiting your winnings.

If you plan hedging, don't even bet that game, that's the rule and it's been mathematically confirmed.

 

[JPicks]

TB--Don't get anybody wrong here about what they're saying about hedging. I'm sure we've all done it at some point or at least given it considerable thought. The thing is if you're going to do a parlay that goes over an extended time period (extended being that all games don't occur simultaneously) you should just take your orignial bet and play the double down game. More profitable than the parlay.

Example from your 2nd parlay:

150 bet at +110 = 165 + 150 (original) =315
315 bet at -400 = 78.75 + 315 (orignial) = 393.75
393.75 bet at -175 = 225 + 393.75 = 618.75
618.75 bet at -175 = 353.57 = 618.75 = 972.31

Your 4 team parlay pays 822 while doubling up pays 972. Say you win your first three and you want to pull out your originial bet (or enough to cover the original, in this case probably 100 bucks on the Lakers ML) before the Jazz game. You'd end up playing 518.75 on the Jazz @ -175. Lakers win you break even. Jazz win you'd still make 815 bucks. Seven short of what you originally would have won without ever hedging.

Now that's a win, win. GL

 

[TailBait]

Alright, one game in....Rays 5 Yankees 2.....Let's go Spurs, take this parlay to day two

 

[TailBait]

On to day two.....I've got the Jazz and Cavs ML and minus the points....both parlays rely on these games.....You guys think that I should hedge at all or let it ride? It's always nice knowing you can't lose money.....thanks for the help and in the future, if my games are staggered like this, ill definitly just double down....

 

[B.A.R.]

I understand that, but your not doing yourself any favors adding a 4th team to a parlay if your gonna hedge out of it.

4 teamer
100-1000
hit the first 3
play 550-500 on the opposite side of the 4th leg

parlay wins, you make 450
hedge wins, you make 400

3 teamer
100-600

you win 600



that is what i don't understand.

Sounds like that Vanzack thread I read at Blankets last year.

 

[TailBait]

Daniel Gibson injury is of concern, you guys think I should hedge at all? I made the parlay cuz I thought it would hit, not because I wanted to hedge, but when presented with a chance to hedge and take away the risk, why not take it? let me know what you guys think

 

[Slug]

Let it ride

 

[TailBait]

Thanks for the help Slug, I'll definitly just double my bets next time I think I might hedge....are you saying to let it ride because anything else would be limiting my winnings mathematically?