my home field advantage numbers

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Continuing my attack on the college football forum ... lots of sleeping giants around here ... come on, lets go people. I have no problem sharing my work and putting myself out there for ridicule but would like some more input in this forum. yes ... i do know tis super early ... early bird gets the worm.

Here are my homefield rankings. Not rounding them this time in case any of you are power ratings people like me. otherwise you could just round them to the nearest half point for everyone else.. In descending order from greatest advantage to least. Feel free to disagree but these are mine.

1. hawaii 5.86
2. virginia tech 5.83
3. texas 5.71
4. boise st 5.69
5. oregon 5.65
6. lsu 5.52 ( i add 0.50 for night game, only team i do this for )
7. ohio state 5.31
8. louisville 5.30
9. penn state 5.28
10. nebraska 5.20
11. oklahoma 5.19
12. tamu 5.18
13. michigan 5.15
14. iowa 5.15
15. usc 5.11
16. wisconsin 5.10
17. florida 5.08
18. texas tech 5.06
19. auburn 4.83
20. w virginia 4.72
21. byu 4.56
22. alabama 4.48
23. gerogia 4.47
24. tennessee 4.44
25. wyoming 4.31 ( best kept homefield advantage secret in nation )
26. arkansas 4.30
27. nevada 4.30
28. fresno st 4.29
29. utah 4.28
30. cal 4.28
31. oregon st 4.28
32. n illy 4.27
33. notre dame 4.25
34. miami fl 4.24
35. clemson 4.24
36. arizona st 4.22
37. tcu 4.21
38. okie st 4.21
39. florida st 4.20
40. maryland 4.19
41. kansas st 4.19
42. ucla 4.19
43. new mexico 4.19
44. virginia 4.18
45. s miss 4.11
46. toledo 4.10
47. utep 4.01 ( my alma mater , go miners ! )
48. gt 4.00
49. usf 4.00
50. la tech 4.00
51. s carolina 4.00
52. syracuse 3.99
53. ucf 3.98
54. kansas 3.96
55. bc 3.94
56. purdue 3.94
57. washington 3.77
58. rutgers 3.76
59. cincy 3.75
60. mich st 3.72
61. missouri 3.71
62. iowa st 3.64
63. pitt 3.51
64. colorado 3.50
65. colorado st 3.49
66. wash st 3.49
67. marshall 3.48
68. idaho 3.47
69. kentucky 3.47
70. wake 3.35
71. illinois 3.07
72. ole miss 3.07
73. houston 3.06
74. air force 3.03
75. tulsa 3.03
76. navy 3.03
77. miami oh 3.03
78. ecu 3.02
79. c mich 3.01
80. troy 3.01
81. bowling green 3.01
82. vanderbilt 3.00
83. arizona 3.00
84. unc 3.00
85. uconn 3.00
86. miss st 3.00
87. sjsu 2.99
88. w mich 2.99
89. northwestern 2.99
90. indiana (jones) 2.98
91. minny 2.98
92. ball st 2.81
93. nmsu 2.80
94. utah st 2.80
95. ark st 2.80
96. memphis 2.79
97. ohio 2.78
98. akron 2.75
99. n texas 2.75
100. ulm 2.75
101. ull 2.74
102. mtsu 2.74
103. ncstate 2.74
104. kent state 2.62
105. flor atl 2.61
106. uab 2.61
107. temple 2.56
108. buffalo 2.54
109. tulane 2.53
110. smu 2.51
111. sdsu 2.47
112. stanford 2.42
113. flor intl 2.41
114. army 2.40
115. baylor 2.25
116. rice 2.25
117. unlv 2.24
118. e mich 2.23
119. duke 2.20
120. w kentucky ( i dont have one, help please )


There they are .... i will add western kentucky at a later date if i remember.


Also recommend adding a half point to any thursday night homefield on espn.
 
Last edited:
Pretty cool thread VK

Care to explain more on Wyoming. I know I have lost betting road teams there before so I can certainly believe it.

Perfect about LSU and the Thursday Night Games. What about Wisconsin night home games?
 
Laramie has just always been a tough place to play. It likely hasn't effected their ats record at home the last few years since the team has been overvalued the last couple of seasons. Toughest mountain west stadium this side of provo.

As far as wisconsin , i just don't have the information. I picked up on the lsu thing some time back. I am sure there are other teams that this would qualify for but i dont know who they are. I take it Wiscy has been tough at home in night games ? do you know of anywhere that i could obtain information regarding day games and night games for ncaa football ?
 
vegaskyle said:
Laramie has just always been a tough place to play. It likely hasn't effected their ats record at home the last few years since the team has been overvalued the last couple of seasons. Toughest mountain west stadium this side of provo.

As far as wisconsin , i just don't have the information. I picked up on the lsu thing some time back. I am sure there are other teams that this would qualify for but i dont know who they are. I take it Wiscy has been tough at home in night games ? do you know of anywhere that i could obtain information regarding day games and night games for ncaa football ?
Click to expand...

Fondy would be more help here. I just know that a game in Madison at night is nuts...ala in Baton Rouge. The first thing I learned about CFB betting some 8-9 years ago was to not bet against LSU or Clemson at night. A wise man told me this when I was around 19-20. The LSU thing has held pretty true.

As far as where you can find that....great question. I would love to know myself

As far as Laramie goes....I don't think I have won the handful of bets I have played against them in my life there. So I was curious.
 
Just thought I could evaluate these real quick..

hawaii 5.86
virginia tech 5.83
texas 5.71
boise st 5.69
oregon 5.65
lsu 5.52 ( i add 0.50 for night game, only team i do this for )
ohio state 5.31
louisville 5.30
penn state 5.28
nebraska 5.20
oklahoma 5.19
tamu 5.18
michigan 5.15
Click to expand...

Hawaii-the officiating is always crooked for some reason. Teams plan this as a semi-bowl. Hence Big Ten teams like Wisky and MSU going out there to close the season.

Va Tech-great home field. A great crowd. Something about Lane Stadium..I dunno. Must be Beamer Ball.

Texas-I really need more feedback here. Great stadium and fan base but doesn't seem intimdating to me.

Boise-Smurf Turf. Great crowd and there is sumtin about it. Its only thing going on out there. Seems to be a fast track.

Oregon-The Pit. One of the best no doubt. The structure of the stadium increases fan noise which kills communication.

skip a few obvious ones....

Penn State-great crowd, but why so high? Is this related to what could be a good team or to venue? They have lost many a game there last few years

UL-Papa Johns is a solid crowd but at same point they were nothing till a few years back.

TAMU-the 12th man. A great enviroment. Def worthy of being here.

Michigan-the crowd gets shitted on a lot. The biggest issue is the stadiums structure. Maybe with the remodeling we can have more noise here by 2009. How its shaped it sounds very quiet. It does have its mystique as the "Big House" but the 2nd biggest stadium(Neyland) is much louder due to its structure.

'Braska-I would rate them much higher than OU fwiw





BTW, not being negative, just trying to start a good discussion. I personally will sticky this thread when you have the numbers exactly like you want and use it all season. A great thread my man.:cheers:
 
B.A.R. said:
Hawaii-the officiating is always crooked for some reason. Teams plan this as a semi-bowl. Hence Big Ten teams like Wisky and MSU going out there to close the season. Agree. Need 2 HFAs--one for BCS teams and other for mid-majors.

Va Tech-great home field. A great crowd. Something about Lane Stadium..I dunno. Must be Beamer Ball.

Texas-I really need more feedback here. Great stadium and fan base but doesn't seem intimdating to me. Going to be louder this year with the north side double-decked and enclosed. Capacity is now 92-95K, up from 88k. Young fans are loud, but the "alumni section" on the Westside lower deck where the older fans have seats is quiet. But not Michigan Stadium quiet.

Boise-Smurf Turf. Great crowd and there is sumtin about it. Its only thing going on out there. Seems to be a fast track.

Oregon-The Pit. One of the best no doubt. The structure of the stadium increases fan noise which kills communication.

skip a few obvious ones....

Penn State-great crowd, but why so high? Is this related to what could be a good team or to venue? They have lost many a game there last few years Beaver is loud, but you need to add a pt for night games (or take one away for day games).

UL-Papa Johns is a solid crowd but at same point they were nothing till a few years back. Krag has lost 27 shollie athletes in a year. Crowd is down on the rebuilding. Expect a less rockin stadium.

TAMU-the 12th man. A great enviroment. Def worthy of being here. Not as intimidating as it used to be. Aggy is loud, but the HFA isn't what it used to be.

Michigan-the crowd gets shitted on a lot. The biggest issue is the stadiums structure. Maybe with the remodeling we can have more noise here by 2009. How its shaped it sounds very quiet. It does have its mystique as the "Big House" but the 2nd biggest stadium(Neyland) is much louder due to its structure. Don't do the "key" thing and scream instead. That might be able to overcome the stadium design. And tell those old alumni to stand the fuck up.

'Braska-I would rate them much higher than OU fwiw Agree that Nebraska should be higher than OU. I've never really been that impressed by the home field crowd at OU. The most intimidating stadiums to play at in the Big XII are Nebraska, Aggy's Tacklebox, Texas, OU, Texas Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma St. in that order (Texas and OU are interchangeable).

BTW, not being negative, just trying to start a good discussion. I personally will sticky this thread when you have the numbers exactly like you want and use it all season. A great thread my man.:cheers:
Click to expand...

How do you incorporate DD decimals into figuring out point spreads?
 
BTW, not being negative, just trying to start a good discussion. I personally will sticky this thread when you have the numbers exactly like you want and use it all season. A great thread my man.:cheers:

nope , i dont take disagreement as negativity. If i did , i would never be able to learn when i am wrong. in fact , with you and rj both thinking i have a bad number with regard to oklahoma , i will have to evaluate that more. That's the whole point , to get a discussion. No way in hell we are all going to agree on this stuff but the more we talk about it the more info we have to make the best numbers.

For instance i would be very interested to know if anyone has a clue as to what w kentucky homefield is worth. i might just give it the basic 3 points until i figure it out but if anyone knows ...

How do you incorporate DD decimals into figuring out point spreads?

i guess since i add up so many different numbers in my unit rankings and homefields and angles when i do the actual capping that all those dd decimals add up. It hardly makes a damn bit of difference but i figure it really isnt any harder than doing the damn rounding and it is more accurate.
 
how do you get these numbers??


There are too many variables too account to make such a detailed list like you have.

We should't count great home field for a really good team in which they would kick ass in any stadium. It's tough measuring how much exactly the home field influences team play.

I do know this, Wisconsin has never gotten waxed on their home field no matter how bad they were. (unlike PSU) Wisky always gives a great fight.

---Notre Dame, IMO has the best home field. Irrespective of their record, the atmosphere and the team energy is best in that stadium then any other.
 
O-State said:
how do you get these numbers??


There are too many variables too account to make such a detailed list like you have.

We should't count great home field for a really good team in which they would kick ass in any stadium. It's tough measuring how much exactly the home field influences team play.

I do know this, Wisconsin has never gotten waxed on their home field no matter how bad they were. (unlike PSU) Wisky always gives a great fight.

---Notre Dame, IMO has the best home field. Irrespective of their record, the atmosphere and the team energy is best in that stadium then any other.
Click to expand...


just round them if you dont like the "detailed list"

don't you have numbers that you use for each homefield ??
If not , are you placing equal values on all home fields ??

not sure i understand your question but i am confident we should be accounting for homefield no matter how good the team is. As close to positive as i can be. you must be betting a ton of away teams if you arent because you would be getting several points the best of the line right off the bat in those spots ... because the linesmakers definitely account for homefield in EVERY game.

As far as penn state it appears i will be in the minority on that teams homefield advantage. i think the number is pretty accurate. No argument from me about wiscy homefield edge. i have them high.
 
oh and the numbers were derived pretty subjectively over the years and are just a series of averages and slight adjustments ... no magic or anything special.

best for most to just lump teams into half point bunches i suppose.
 
Thanks for this VK.

Couple of questions:

1. Why is Northern Illy so high? Something I'm missing here?

2. Do you adjust these throughout the season for performance? Let's say, for some reason, Texas A&M starts 0-6. It would be reasonable to think that fan support will be lower and therefore the HFA would be lacking for the remainder of the season.

This would work the other way around as well. I'll just use last year's Cincy team since I know them better than other squads. For the nationally televised Oregon St game LY, they only drew 25,000. After that, since expectations rose, they drew no less than 31,000 (generally between 31,000 and 35,000 each game) for the remainder of their home games.
 
lsu 5.52 ( i add 0.50 for night game, only team i do this for )
Click to expand...

Smart man!

I was surprised to see so many teams above LSU and Florida (not that I'm doubting you, as you have done this much longer than I have).

Thank God I enjoy betting MLB and I am studying for my CFA, otherwise, this wait until the end of August would kill me.
 
spectacular work, vk. very interesting. going to go through right now and look at some of these...
 
I think you missed the Buckeyes. They were the best defense last year with allowing single digit points at home. This year they will be at least a '7' as you can expect a lot of single digit scores again from a bunch of dud's arriving at the shoe again..
 
Dmoney416 said:
Thanks for this VK.

Couple of questions:

1. Why is Northern Illy so high? Something I'm missing here?

2. Do you adjust these throughout the season for performance? Let's say, for some reason, Texas A&M starts 0-6. It would be reasonable to think that fan support will be lower and therefore the HFA would be lacking for the remainder of the season.

This would work the other way around as well. I'll just use last year's Cincy team since I know them better than other squads. For the nationally televised Oregon St game LY, they only drew 25,000. After that, since expectations rose, they drew no less than 31,000 (generally between 31,000 and 35,000 each game) for the remainder of their home games.
Click to expand...


1. northern illinois is so high because of how dominant their homefield has been in conference play. Even last year with a slightly down team from their standards they covered three of four times as home dogs. This goes for toledo as well. Toledo has been going down significantly the last few years and i might have overreacted to scandal with that team... perhaps they should be higher. They used to get a much higher homefield edge from me. When it comes to the smaller conferences , they just don't host enough games as they are taking paychecks to play at bcs schools stadiums. So the homefield edge is based highly on conference history. For this reason a team like northern illinois or nevada will appear to have a higher homefield advantage than they should ...... but this is how i actually feel it plays out.

2. I really have not. This is definitely something i could improve upon but i rarely change my homefield edge in the middle of a season. I think the only team i made an adjustment for midseason was uconn. Yeah ... i think you are right about this but somehow i have failed to do it. Definite weakness for me. I bet there were some other teams this applied to like air force last year , missouri , kansas ... teams jsut having the great year that generates support. I think one reason i hae failed in this area is because i dont like to overreact a few games into the year. I do not make major adjustments to my power ratings after two games, for instance. Overall , that is a good policy for me but sometimes it allows for a team that i have misevaluated to cost me ...like kansas did last year.
I also think tht I get a little bit robotic midseason and it is easy to forget to adjust homefield edges. Perhaps if the locals of each team posted any changes to the dynamics of their crowds, it would help me not forget this issue , this year. Husky weekly thread last year helped me see how that fan base was growing throughout the year. Between the mich guys , you ohio guys , bjorks in arizona , husky in northeast , etg and dwight and all the other carolina guys , jpicks in mwc , texasfight and others in the big12, hawaiiguy in hawaii ... etc etc we could really get a better handle on any significant changes that should be made. Great idea dmoney and one that i have failed to do.

p.s. i hate you for bringing up that beaver/bearcat game.


There are some strange advantages ... idaho is a strange place to play and it results in a higher advantage than most would think. I think this can be a factor with n illinois as well. I personally have never been to Dekalb.
 
G-Man said:
I think you missed the Buckeyes. They were the best defense last year with allowing single digit points at home. This year they will be at least a '7' as you can expect a lot of single digit scores again from a bunch of dud's arriving at the shoe again..
Click to expand...

I do my best not to factor in how i feel about a teams particular upcoming season into their homefield. I feel i have accounted for ohio states defense in my power rating in general. With that said , it is certainly possible , as it is with any team, that my number is off. These are just MY numbers , it certainly doesn't mean they are right.
 
Thanks for the outlook on Northern Illy. I'm am aware of how Idaho's HFA (and other lower tier teams) are a bit higher, but I just wanted to hear more on NIU. I think last year's team left me shortsighted and I looked at them from that point of view. Good stats on them and their HFA last year.

As far as mid-season adjustments go, I don't see it as a big weakness at all since big changes would only apply to a select few teams. Also, most of these changes would be temporary. You would revert back to the old HFA (or make a slight change) once the season ends.
 
something that might be worth looking at is conference home games vs non conference home games. game times should almost always factor in as well.

example that i personally know very well...

Alabama... non conference day games... no one yells AT ALL.

conference 11oclock games (ex this year... Ol miss, UK, or Miss St) students don't come till haftime and its quiet as shit. Even the UT game last year (11oclock) was relatively quiet even after being up big early.
 
conference 11oclock games students don't come till haftime and its quiet as shit.
Click to expand...

Good point, tide; I agree completely. I remember my freshman year at LSU I woke up during the 2Q of the Miss St vs LSU game that kicked off at 11am. But, I learned from that point on; I got situated next to the keg at the tailgate, and didn't move from 7-11am so that I could conserve energy. And Miss St is a bad example because they have not been close to LSU in about a decade, but you get the point.

:cheers:
 
Very good idea by DMoney that would certainly have some value as the year goes along. Take Colorado State for example. During the great Sunny Lubick days during the late 90's and early 00's they would regularly draw 34K. Even last year for their home opener they brought in 28K. By the time the season was over the fan base showing up to games had dwindeled down to 14K. All of these #'s are easily laughable by major program standards, but they still play a big role for the home team.

I'd rank the MWC teams in the following order based on the BEGINNING of 2008.

Wyoming Cowboys

9991f11499b81b719133d6da15742eefnf7.jpg


This little cracker box holds 32K drunk pissed off Cowboys (in the literal sense). The stadium sits at 7200 feet and is the highest stadium in elevation of any in Div I. Opposing teams, especially non conference teams generally have a difficult time with the elevation. Need proof? Ask Virginia last year. Virginia was outgained 452-100 in total yards only scoring 3 points. Beyond the elevation there aren't exactly direct flights into Laramie and the travel schedule for any team out of the region is just down right brutal. Come winter time, Laramie is very similar to Green Bay on the weather map.

TCU Horned Frogs

Since TCU joined the MWC they are 9-2-1 ATS at home versus conference opponents. Those two ATS losses came to Utah and BYU and the one tie is also attributed to Utah. Their average margin of victory in those 9 games is 29.9 points per game. You read it right. 30 points per game they beat MWC teams, not named BYU and Utah, by. Over that same period they are 5-4 ATS against all teams in the confernce on the road. It's obvious that they are very undervalued at home. The reasoning behind this is a bit of a mystery, but I'd say it has alot to do with the heat (humidity) and the travel. Texas is the farthest travel venue for any team in the conference. Just don't get to excited about betting them on Thursday night games at home. They've ran up a 1-5 record on Thursday night games over the last few years.

BYU Cougars

Almost a toss up with Utah but the overall attendance (65K average) of BYU gives them the advantage. They're 10-4 ATS over their last 14 at home with 7 of those 14 being DD favs (4-3 ATS in those DD games and one of those 4 victories being by 1' points). The overall advantage for the Cougars goes to their actual attendance. Generally it's the biggest crowd that any road team will play in front of each year but certainly not the most obnoxious.

Utah Utes

Getting better every year as attendance continues to rise. 43K averaged last year and they've already sold 43K season tickts this year. Easily the 2nd largest venue in the MWC and they have a great home field advantage on Thursday night games or any night games for that matter. 5-1 ATS vs. BCS teams at home over the last 5 years (6-0 SU, avg margin of victory 17ppg). Similar to all non BCS schools the crowd (and team) step it up a notch when BCS schools roll into town.


New Mexico/AFA

I rate them about the same. I don't have a complex system ranking the teams such as Kyle. More of a feel of watching games in the MWC for the last 6 years. Both teams have given Utah fits so it's hard for me to think that either venue is more difficult. New Mexico has had better teams over the last 5 years so I believe it creates a false idea that it's tougher to play in Albuquerque. There is no weather or travel problems that make it any tougher to play there than say SDSU. I'd honestly give a slight edge to Air Force as the Falcons usually draw a bigger crowd and have the precense of their military academy at every game. Again just my perceptions and not based on anything concrete.

CSU

This is the one to watch. Fort Collins is a college town. Give them a reason to get behind the Rams and they'll be out in full force. If the Rams can start out the season by upsetting Colorado and knocking down Sac. St pretty good and you'll find them moving up very quickly. They started last season with 28K fans and ended it with 14K. Depending on how they come out of the gate I'd be able to move them above NewMexico/AFA or drop them into the bottom with:

UNLV/SDSU

What homefield advantage? One interesting note about UNLV I picked up from Steele: Since Sanford took over they are 9-4 (3-10 SU) ATS at home as dogs and 0-3 (1-2 SU) as favs.
 
Adding on to the LSU night game thing, I think this applies to any big time stadium that gets really crazy. I know I use it in any SEC stadium besides Vandy and other places like Penn St, Wisconsin, or Ohio St. Night games seem to make a difference, but sometimes I wonder if the odds makers don't already account for this by looking at the lines on some of these big night games in the SEC or Big Ten.
 
you've got the pac10 pretty much nailed. the only one i disagree with is washington. id put them much higher. the noise created is artificial, but those metal hangers can make that place insanely loud.

id probably put washington above cal and ucla above asu.
 
Any western kentucky people around ??

still looking for what that number should be. Phil steele gives them a 3 but he is one of the least consistent home field advantage guys out there. probably a big weakness for him.

ucla and arizona state are within a few hundredths of each other. not shocking that you would have a leap frog there junky.

Very surprised you would put washington over CAL.

Also , nice post jpicks. I think i have always had new mexico higher than most people would. I have had a lot of success in betting on their games over the years so I have never felt the need for a major adjustment based on that. Of course last year i went 1-2 in their games with both losses in their home stadium ..unlv and i bet nevada against them in the bowl last year .... cough cough cough cough. so again , dont have much reason to lower the number. of course , maybe i am lookng at that wrong .. maybe i have air force too low......
 
Good thread VK. I really dont have any idea how to make a number for everybody's HFA so I usually just use Steele's numbers for that.

One thing I do like to do however, is to add more for teams like this year's North Carolina team. By time the season gets here fans should really be pumped expecting their best team in years....probably much better HFA that previous yrs, atleast early on
 
Great list VK, and I totally agree with BAR about the night game in Madison. Its nuts there. Very hard to beat them at Camp Randall. And then one more question. Why Iowa so high?
 
The only number thats iffy to me is the Miami number who knows what there advantage will be since they no longer play in the OB.. dolphin stadium is not loud and obviously doesnt seat nearly as many people or have that college stadium set up.


and good work :shake:
 
well huntdog , i have a 0.07 poitn difference between them , so its basically the same in my eyes. Perhaps I have overrated the bighouse. A couple michigan guys have mentioned that they are too high already. Thats the reason for the thread , so we can figure out what values tehse homefields have. I am very likely to have mistakes and also very likely to have a different opinion of some homefields than others. However , when enough people speak up , it does likely mean that i have them slightly overrated as a homefield. wouldnt mind getting more opinions on that. How much more do you think floridas homefield is worth in comparison to michigan ?

signal -- iowa was in my top 5 homefield advantages a few years ago , this is by far the lowest they have ever appeared. An incredible homefield edge there and it has played out that way over the years vs the spread as well , i believe. I know for sure that they covered 12 in a row at home at one point in the early 2000's. Will check back in later with the actual numbers. Lowest they have ever been valued for me. If anything , it is probably too low on my list in my opinion.

gj -- yes , i considered that as well .... with no new data in the new venue , i am just rolling with the old number. could definitely be off.


vthokies --Expectations are high even for bad teams early in the year. I expect their advantage to increase if they perform , but i dont think they have a significant increase in the HFA to start the year. just my opinion. why you talking about unc anyway , you are supposed to be telling me that VT has a greater hfa than hawaii :)
 
The only thing that really looked out of place from my perspective was Minnesota at 2.98 and way down the list. For a crappy program they play demonstrably better at home than the road. Even if the atmosphere at the dome isn't great from the standpoint of being intimidating or difficult for an opponent to deal with, the fact remains their level of play is far superior there.

Great job overall though with this thread and all the others you've posted.
 
vk...u can hear a pin drop at the big house unless they are playing tuos...and msu can get loud at times....fans chastise other fans for standing up during the game, waaaay too many senior citizens. the student section is good, but it's such a small part of the stadium.

the renovations are supposedly going to help with the noise because of the glass panels above the press box to have the noise bounce off...we'll see.

the most intimidating thing about UM is the size...that's it imo.

hope this helps.
 
HUNTDOG said:
vk...u can hear a pin drop at the big house unless they are playing tuos...and msu can get loud at times....fans chastise other fans for standing up during the game, waaaay too many senior citizens. the student section is good, but it's such a small part of the stadium.

the renovations are supposedly going to help with the noise because of the glass panels above the press box to have the noise bounce off...we'll see.

the most intimidating thing about UM is the size...that's it imo.

hope this helps.
Click to expand...

I tried to watch a game at SC once when I wasn't in the student section and these old people kept tapping me to sit down. Problem is, if I sat down, the 1,000 people around me were still standing.


Hate that shit
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
I tried to watch a game at SC once when I wasn't in the student section and these old people kept tapping me to sit down. Problem is, if I sat down, the 1,000 people around me were still standing.


Hate that shit
Click to expand...

they all in line to be next wit ur sister after god ;)
 
Nebraska isn't that intimidating b/c there are too many old people (what we call blue hairs) but the Huskers have played so much better at home the last 10 years (since Osborne left basically). Another thing you might want to look at is road disadvantage. A team like Nebraska is just fucking terrible on the road. It might be worth a TD maybe.

Texas is another that's not intimidating. Their open stadium isn't conducive to bothering opposing teams. But you should see those fuckers when they're on the road. They love it. When they came to Lincoln 2 years ago, their guys were jumping around and going nuts when the Nebraska crowd got loud. They were feeding off the opposing crowd noise. USC last year was the same way. I think it's something you can coach.

I'd like to see something where you add the home advantage and road disadvantage and maybe divide by 2 to get the true # that you add to the neutral field spread. Any thoughts, Kyle?
 
cubsker said:
also, Kansas St. is on the list twice. One of those should be Kansas, I'm guessing.
Click to expand...


yup .. thanks for catching the typo kstate 4.19 , kansas 3.96

editing the original post so as not to confuse.

will get to your other post in a sec , cubsker.
 
I'd like to see something where you add the home advantage and road disadvantage and maybe divide by 2 to get the true # that you add to the neutral field spread. Any thoughts, Kyle?

I do give certain teams a disadvantage for road games over whatever a normal field , but not many. Again , Hawaii applies for a lot of the same reasons that they have such a huge homefield advantage. But i would only adjust a point or so.... in other words i would give florida maybe a 6 point homefield instead of 5 vs hawaii.

to me , other than accounting for any true edges that might be there for a "neutral" field ( boston college playing in cleveland against kent st for instance is not really a neutral field ) , i would just use my capping and power rating combo and simply not add anything to it. Atleast that is how i have done it in the past. Another example might be a bowl game where a team like maryland has to travel all the way to the west coast to play an oregon state in the emerald bowl. Not really a neutral field. But in general , i think you can just cap it out as neutral in most cases.

Might not be understanding what you mean though. i aint the brightest bulb in the knife drawer or something like that.
 
yeah, I'm not sure I'm explaining myself well. Let's say you have Nebraska at va tech. Let's just say Va Tech on a neutral field is -3. The game is in Lincoln, so now NU is -2. Now let's move the game to blacksburg. You have va tech at 5.83, so now va tech is a 9 pt favorite. OK, what I'm proposing is you also factor in how good of a road team both teams are. Nebraska is a shitty road team, so maybe the true line should be Va Tech -11 instead of -9. Maybe Va Tech is an outstanding road team so that line should be a pick em instead of NU -2.

Am I making sense? Maybe there should be a home/road discrepancy. A team like Texas might play very evenly rather they are at home or on the road. A team like Nebraska might play so much better at home than they do on the road. I think that's why you'll see some teams will have a chance at home no matter who they are playing while on the road they're quite capable of getting blown out.
 
cubsker said:
yeah, I'm not sure I'm explaining myself well. Let's say you have Nebraska at va tech. Let's just say Va Tech on a neutral field is -3. The game is in Lincoln, so now NU is -2. Now let's move the game to blacksburg. You have va tech at 5.83, so now va tech is a 9 pt favorite. OK, what I'm proposing is you also factor in how good of a road team both teams are. Nebraska is a shitty road team, so maybe the true line should be Va Tech -11 instead of -9. Maybe Va Tech is an outstanding road team so that line should be a pick em instead of NU -2.

Am I making sense?
Click to expand...

i get what you are saying.

Not sure how to attack it , though.
 
I think your UL number is outdated. That fan base is a bunch of bandwagon fans if I've ever seen them. They don't even fill up half the stadium unless they're competing for the conference title.

I would seriously consider dropping that.

Will add more when I look through more...
 
IMO, Florida and Texas Tech are too low. I think those are tougher places to play than some of the ones you have above them. TT more so at night.

Kentucky has to, has to, has to be higher than Pitt and Iowa State, at least. I mean Commonwealth isn't anything special, but it's better than those two at least.

I see Duke didn't make the list...probably deserved.

Good shit VK
 
florida is coming up a lot as a team that i do not have the homefield properly accounted. With so many of you saying it, i have to think that i may be off on that one. the question now becomes how much ??? a whole point ? a half point ? a quarter point ??
 
lindetrain said:
IMO, Florida and Texas Tech are too low. I think those are tougher places to play than some of the ones you have above them. TT more so at night.

Kentucky has to, has to, has to be higher than Pitt and Iowa State, at least. I mean Commonwealth isn't anything special, but it's better than those two at least.

I see Duke didn't make the list...probably deserved.

Good shit VK
Click to expand...


i should have numbered the teams , to make sure i didnt make an ommission in transcribing.
 
let's all remember that perceptions isn't always reality when it comes to this kind of stuff. Like I said, the crowd doesn't help the Huskers that much, but they sure play a whole hell of a lot better there than on the road.
 
Want to try and get this refined. Here is the current list of HFA that multiple folks feel are markedly off in post #1

michigan 5.15 -- getting reaction that this number is too high. The big concern with my number here is that it is michigan guys ( BAR , Huntdog etc ) coming in to say that its too high. Likely means that it is. I will be adjusting this downward , need to figure out how much.

pennstate 5.28 -- getting reaction that this number is too high ( i feel good about this one but again multiple people have brought it up specifically )

florida 5.08 -- getting reaction that this number is too low. A lot of people.

wisconsin 5.10 -- getting reaction that this might be too low , or atleast reaction to idea that this could be much higher for night games.

Was nice to see our on site mwc guru agree with me about laramie wyoming.

oklahoma 5.19 -- getting reaction that this one is too high. it "looks" high to me too.

nebraska 5.20 -- getting reaction that this might be too low.

texas tech -- i think they were mentioned more than once as well. reaction that i have them too low at 5.06

western kentucky -- still seeking some help with this.

there were others mentioned but these seem like the ones that garnered the most reaction. Not surprisingly most of the discussion has been about the top of the list. I have some fear about my WAC homefields so would appreciate input on those.

Also , when talking about "wrong" HFA for a particular team it might be helpful if you each state what that number should be. Like lindetrain mentioned he thought florida should be up with lsu ( roughly a half point higher than i have the gator field ) or maybe even a half point higher than lsu ( a full point higher than i rate the gator homefield ).

i numbered the teams , so i think all of the teams are currently listed. sorry about that blue devil fans. Also HFA number 54 , kansas 3.96 was incorrectly recorded as kansas st when the post was originally made. The first post was edited to fix that error.
 
I believe florida has lost only twice at swamp since 04? i could be wrong though.
 
excellent thread so far

should be extremely useful for home-team ML parlays and wagers of that nature.
 
Interesting analysis. If I keyed the numbers in right, I come up with a home field advantage average of 3.72 for Kyle's numbers. Steele's average comes out to 3.68 (again, if I keyed the numbers in right). So, pretty similar.

I took a look at Jeff Sagarin's HFA #'s for the last 10 years, based on what USA Today has. (One of the ten links is here - http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt98.htm). Here are JS's average home field advantage #'s for the last ten years:

2007 - 2.58
2006 - 1.94
2005 - 2.48
2004 - 3.85
2003 - 3.45
2002 - 3.33
2001 - 3.38
1999 - 4.41
1998 - 3.48

Based on these numbers, it appears that teams are now better prepared to play on the road.
 
BuckAndSomeChange said:
Interesting analysis. If I keyed the numbers in right, I come up with a home field advantage average of 3.72 for Kyle's numbers. Steele's average comes out to 3.68 (again, if I keyed the numbers in right). So, pretty similar.

I took a look at Jeff Sagarin's HFA #'s for the last 10 years, based on what USA Today has. (One of the ten links is here - http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt98.htm). Here are JS's average home field advantage #'s for the last ten years:

2007 - 2.58
2006 - 1.94
2005 - 2.48
2004 - 3.85
2003 - 3.45
2002 - 3.33
2001 - 3.38
1999 - 4.41
1998 - 3.48

Based on these numbers, it appears that teams are now better prepared to play on the road.
Click to expand...


Awesome post. Don't be such a stranger Basc.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

E
NBA game projections with player stats
Replies
12
Views
1K
ebemiss
E
Back
Top