My first run of 2013 Power Ratings for the Big 6 Conferences

[JML4481]

Alright, well, I'm getting a later start to the NCAA research this year due to coaching, more projects around the house, and the list goes on. In years past, I have used the bright minds that frequent this site to help solidify my opinions one way or another when making my set of Power Ratings.

This year I am having some trouble making some numbers, most notably the disparity in the teams middle to bottom. In years past (only been making my own numbers for a few years) and like many, I have molded my numbers to give me a possible spread in which I see fit on a neutral site. I am going to stand fairly firm on the order of standings, but am looking to adjust numbers.


I am most certainly not a Kenny White when it comes to this art, but do take pride in my work. I am welcoming ALL opinions on what they think is wrong with this year's set of numbers.

Thank you for your input! :cheers:

SEC
Alabama-100
Georgia-92
South Carolina-91
Florida-90
Texas A&M-89
LSU-89
Ole Miss-85
Vanderbilt-78
Tennessee-77
Mizzou-77
Auburn-75
Arkansas-75
Mississippi St-75
Kentucky-70

BIG 10
Ohio St-91.5
Nebraska-86.5
Michigan St-86
Michigan-85
Wisconsin-82.5
Northwestern-82
Indiana-76
Penn St-76
Iowa-75
Minnesota-74
Purdue-69
Illinois-68

PAC-12
Oregon 88.5
USC-85.5
Stanford-85.5
Arizona St-76.5
Washington-76.5
Oregon St-75
UCLA-74
Arizona-71
Washington St-70
Utah-69
Cal-63
Colorado-59

ACC
Florida St-87
Clemson-82.5
Miami-82
Ga Tech-81
Va Tech-80
North Carolina-76.5
Maryland-72
NC State-72
Duke-71
Boston College-70
Wake Forest-69
Pittsburgh-68
Syracuse-66

Big 12
Texas-86
Oklahoma St-85
Oklahoma-83
TCU-79
Baylor-78.5
Kansas St- 76
Texas Tech-74
West Virginia-73
Iowa St-64.5
Kansas-55

AAC
Louisville-81
Cincinnati-67
UCF-66
SMU-64.5
Rutgers-62
Houston-61
UConn-60
South Florida-60
Memphis-53
Temple-51

 

[tru]

Just from quick glances I think ur too high on USC, u have em -10.5 over Oregon state on neutral. Fsu is too high also. And Louisville -19 neutral to Rutgers? They are catching 10 at Fresno state, minus roughly 4 for hfa then Fresno would be -6 neutral to Rutgers. That would mean ville -13 to Fresno neutral field, and -9 at Fresno, we would never see that kinda line.

 

[Carolina Guy]

Little high on FSU. Way low on Clemson. Low on UNC. Way high on Virginia Tech. High on Georigia Tech. The rest of the conference looks pretty good from your view point.

those are my thoughts on the ACC. I won't comment on other conferences. Best of luck this year.

 

[RetroVK]

First, welcome to the world of cfb pr. While always difficult to comment on them because it is a subjective endeavor where opinions will disagree... what you should do is compare your pr to market because that will show you where possible errors are ( goy lines are an excellent comparative measure aide ). Some of the variance will be from where you are right and market is wrong and some of it will be where you are wrong and market is right but when just learning to make your own, you should target these games to find the spots where errors are most likely existing. good luck amigo.

 

[tru]

First, welcome to the world of cfb pr. While always difficult to comment on them because it is a subjective endeavor where opinions will disagree... what you should do is compare your pr to market because that will show you where possible errors are ( goy lines are an excellent comparative measure aide ). Some of the variance will be from where you are right and market is wrong and some of it will be where you are wrong and market is right but when just learning to make your own, you should target these games to find the spots where errors are most likely existing. good luck amigo.

:shake:

 

[JML4481]

Little high on FSU. Way low on Clemson. Low on UNC. Way high on Virginia Tech. High on Georigia Tech. The rest of the conference looks pretty good from your view point.

those are my thoughts on the ACC. I won't comment on other conferences. Best of luck this year.

CG, do you have Clemson ahead of FSU? I could see my numbers for them a bit tighter, but personally can't put Clemson ahead of FSU mainly due to Dabo.(after looking again...they should be closer to the same) I am personally high on GT this year and believe they will give a lot of teams fits. UNC, I think the loss of Bernard will hurt Renner more than some think,but didn't know exactly where to put them. VT, well,kind of going with a gut feel there...after the Bama game, I should have a better true feel for them.

:shake:

 

[JML4481]

Just from quick glances I think ur too high on USC, u have em -10.5 over Oregon state on neutral. Fsu is too high also. And Louisville -19 neutral to Rutgers? They are catching 10 at Fresno state, minus roughly 4 for hfa then Fresno would be -6 neutral to Rutgers. That would mean ville -13 to Fresno neutral field, and -9 at Fresno, we would never see that kinda line.

Good point on that Ville/Fresno line....thanks for the head's up!

 

[JML4481]

First, welcome to the world of cfb pr. While always difficult to comment on them because it is a subjective endeavor where opinions will disagree... what you should do is compare your pr to market because that will show you where possible errors are ( goy lines are an excellent comparative measure aide ). Some of the variance will be from where you are right and market is wrong and some of it will be where you are wrong and market is right but when just learning to make your own, you should target these games to find the spots where errors are most likely existing. good luck amigo.

I'm glad you mentioned GOY as a comparative measure. Comparative is the key term. In the past I almost went off those GOY's 100%, which after adjusting after week 1 left me with some wacky numbers, especially after a blowout and then wk 2 that team would have a step up in competition making my PR close to worthless. I will look into these GOY's later after some more tweaking as I want to stay as objective as possible before letting the market have any influence so I won't be bias.

Tru, I believe this was what you were getting at as well.

Thanks for the help fellas!

 

[Schrute]

CG, do you have Clemson ahead of FSU? I could see my numbers for them a bit tighter, but personally can't put Clemson ahead of FSU mainly due to Dabo.(after looking again...they should be closer to the same) I am personally high on GT this year and believe they will give a lot of teams fits. UNC, I think the loss of Bernard will hurt Renner more than some think,but didn't know exactly where to put them. VT, well,kind of going with a gut feel there...after the Bama game, I should have a better true feel for them.

:shake:

I don't have a problem with lowering Clemson's number due to Dabo, though I do think he has grown tremendously over the past few years. What I would argue is that if you are going to lower Clemson due to Dabo, you have to lower FSU the same amount due to Jimbo.

I think GT, UNC and VT should all be within a point of each other and Miami should maybe be 2 points ahead of that group. I'd have Clemson and FSU as a PK on a neutral this year. My reasoning is you have a 3 year starter for Clemson versus a QB for FSU who has never thrown a pass. Also FSU may very well not have a TE or WR corp by the time they kick off in Pittsburgh. They have been royally screwed with injuries, suspensions and transfers at almost exclusively the TE and WR spots

 

[tru]

For what it's worth I have Clemson ahead of fsu. Pretty sure vegas agrees also since I thought Clemson had best odds to win acc.

 

[JML4481]

I don't have a problem with lowering Clemson's number due to Dabo, though I do think he has grown tremendously over the past few years. What I would argue is that if you are going to lower Clemson due to Dabo, you have to lower FSU the same amount due to Jimbo.

I think GT, UNC and VT should all be within a point of each other and Miami should maybe be 2 points ahead of that group. I'd have Clemson and FSU as a PK on a neutral this year. My reasoning is you have a 3 year starter for Clemson versus a QB for FSU who has never thrown a pass. Also FSU may very well not have a TE or WR corp by the time they kick off in Pittsburgh. They have been royally screwed with injuries, suspensions and transfers at almost exclusively the TE and WR spots

It sounds as though the main team out of the ACC that I have waaay off is UNC. I also have two strong ACC/SEC guys saying Clemson and FSU should be close to even,or even Clemson slightly ahead due to QB(solid point). Question to all who have responded, what do you have Bama vs. FSU/Clemson?


Currently I have Alabama-13 vs. Florida State and Alabama-17.5 vs. Clemson....yeah, that doesn't look right.

 

[Schrute]

I don't think your PR on FSU is all that wrong unless the injury bug keeps striking. I'd personally just bump Clemson to within 0.5 of FSU

 

[tru]

5dimes has to win acc Clemson +235 fsu +240. So a 4.5 point difference is really off in my opinion. Like Kyle said glance at some goy lines an see what needs to be moved up or down to tighten things up and u will get closer. I would really look close in PAC 12 though

 

[Carolina Guy]

CG, do you have Clemson ahead of FSU? I could see my numbers for them a bit tighter, but personally can't put Clemson ahead of FSU mainly due to Dabo.(after looking again...they should be closer to the same) I am personally high on GT this year and believe they will give a lot of teams fits. UNC, I think the loss of Bernard will hurt Renner more than some think,but didn't know exactly where to put them. VT, well,kind of going with a gut feel there...after the Bama game, I should have a better true feel for them.

:shake:

Clemson is loaded on offense again and their defense is way better than they get credit for. Personally, Dabo doesn't scare me at all. So maybe that's where you and I differ?

Gio's absence is AJ Blue and Romar Morris' gain. Those two guys are more than capable of carrying Gio's jock.

100% of the folk like to call me the resident homer, so take what I say whichever way you like. But, unlike UNC baskets, the football team isn't nearly as popular so many won't have a pulse on the team like I do.

 

[Schrute]

Clemson is loaded on offense again and their defense is way better than they get credit for. Personally, Dabo doesn't scare me at all. So maybe that's where you and I differ?

Gio's absence is AJ Blue and Romar Morris' gain. Those two guys are more than capable of carrying Gio's jock.

100% of the folk like to call me the resident homer, so take what I say whichever way you like. But, unlike UNC baskets, the football team isn't nearly as popular so many won't have a pulse on the team like I do.

On a neutral how would you line UNC vs GT, UNC vs VT and UNC vs Miami

I'm trying to get a pulse on how you think the Coastal stacks up. Thanks

 

[TheGarfather]

Biggest "problem" I see is 6 SEC teams in the top 7. Maybe you're just a big believer in the top half of that conference distancing itself from anyone else. I don't personally share that opinion, but they are your ratings, not mine.

Will have you bets on Georgia, LSU, and South Carolina in week 1? Because your PR's are creating variances that I would consider playable, in all three of those contests.

Good luck this season.

 

[Carolina Guy]

On a neutral how would you line UNC vs GT, UNC vs VT and UNC vs Miami

I'm trying to get a pulse on how you think the Coastal stacks up. Thanks

Would absolutely have UNC favored against VT. GT scares me a little bc of last year so maybe give GT the edge. Would favor UNC ahead of Miami. Getting on a plane ......

 

[Schrute]

Would absolutely have UNC favored against VT. GT scares me a little bc of last year so maybe give GT the edge. Would favor UNC ahead of Miami. Getting on a plane ......

Then you my friend are going to be betting on UNC a lot this year. They will, IMO, be getting a FG at GT and VT and will be PK vs Miami

 

[tru]

Then you my friend are going to be betting on UNC a lot this year. They will, IMO, be getting a FG at GT and VT and will be PK vs Miami

Of course he will be bettin unc a lot, that's every season.

 

[Son_of_A_Legend]

Alright, well, I'm getting a later start to the NCAA research this year due to coaching, more projects around the house, and the list goes on. In years past, I have used the bright minds that frequent this site to help solidify my opinions one way or another when making my set of Power Ratings.

This year I am having some trouble making some numbers, most notably the disparity in the teams middle to bottom. In years past (only been making my own numbers for a few years) and like many, I have molded my numbers to give me a possible spread in which I see fit on a neutral site. I am going to stand fairly firm on the order of standings, but am looking to adjust numbers.


I am most certainly not a Kenny White when it comes to this art, but do take pride in my work. I am welcoming ALL opinions on what they think is wrong with this year's set of numbers.

Thank you for your input! :cheers:

SEC
Alabama-100
Georgia-92
South Carolina-91
Florida-90
Texas A&M-89
LSU-89
Ole Miss-85
Vanderbilt-78
Tennessee-77
Mizzou-77
Auburn-75
Arkansas-75
Mississippi St-75
Kentucky-70

BIG 10
Ohio St-91.5
Nebraska-86.5
Michigan St-86
Michigan-85
Wisconsin-82.5
Northwestern-82
Indiana-76
Penn St-76
Iowa-75
Minnesota-74
Purdue-69
Illinois-68

PAC-12
Oregon 88.5
USC-85.5
Stanford-85.5
Arizona St-76.5
Washington-76.5
Oregon St-75
UCLA-74
Arizona-71
Washington St-70
Utah-69
Cal-63
Colorado-59

ACC
Florida St-87
Clemson-82.5
Miami-82
Ga Tech-81
Va Tech-80
North Carolina-76.5
Maryland-72
NC State-72
Duke-71
Boston College-70
Wake Forest-69
Pittsburgh-68
Syracuse-66

Big 12
Texas-86
Oklahoma St-85
Oklahoma-83
TCU-79
Baylor-78.5
Kansas St- 76
Texas Tech-74
West Virginia-73
Iowa St-64.5
Kansas-55

AAC
Louisville-81
Cincinnati-67
UCF-66
SMU-64.5
Rutgers-62
Houston-61
UConn-60
South Florida-60
Memphis-53
Temple-51

For what it's worth - in terms of either your numerical value and/or order of finish.

SEC: Georgia to high, South Carolina and Florida to low. Missouri should be higher too.
B10: MSU & MI to high. Wisky & Northwestern to low.
P12: UCLA & UT to low and Oregon to high.
ACC: Clemson and North Carolina to low. Duke to high.
B12: Cowboys & Raiders to low.
AAC: UCF, Rutgers and USF to low. SMU, Memphis and Temple to high.

 

[Elbutre88]

Alright, well, I'm getting a later start to the NCAA research this year due to coaching, more projects around the house, and the list goes on. In years past, I have used the bright minds that frequent this site to help solidify my opinions one way or another when making my set of Power Ratings.

This year I am having some trouble making some numbers, most notably the disparity in the teams middle to bottom. In years past (only been making my own numbers for a few years) and like many, I have molded my numbers to give me a possible spread in which I see fit on a neutral site. I am going to stand fairly firm on the order of standings, but am looking to adjust numbers.


I am most certainly not a Kenny White when it comes to this art, but do take pride in my work. I am welcoming ALL opinions on what they think is wrong with this year's set of numbers.

Thank you for your input! :cheers:

SEC
Alabama-100
Georgia-92
South Carolina-91
Florida-90
Texas A&M-89
LSU-89
Ole Miss-85
Vanderbilt-78
Tennessee-77
Mizzou-77
Auburn-75
Arkansas-75
Mississippi St-75
Kentucky-70

BIG 10
Ohio St-91.5
Nebraska-86.5
Michigan St-86
Michigan-85
Wisconsin-82.5
Northwestern-82
Indiana-76
Penn St-76
Iowa-75
Minnesota-74
Purdue-69
Illinois-68

PAC-12
Oregon 88.5
USC-85.5
Stanford-85.5
Arizona St-76.5
Washington-76.5
Oregon St-75
UCLA-74
Arizona-71
Washington St-70
Utah-69
Cal-63
Colorado-59

ACC
Florida St-87
Clemson-82.5
Miami-82
Ga Tech-81
Va Tech-80
North Carolina-76.5
Maryland-72
NC State-72
Duke-71
Boston College-70
Wake Forest-69
Pittsburgh-68
Syracuse-66

Big 12
Texas-86
Oklahoma St-85
Oklahoma-83
TCU-79
Baylor-78.5
Kansas St- 76
Texas Tech-74
West Virginia-73
Iowa St-64.5
Kansas-55

AAC
Louisville-81
Cincinnati-67
UCF-66
SMU-64.5
Rutgers-62
Houston-61
UConn-60
South Florida-60
Memphis-53
Temple-51

Couple thoughts, and questions.

In the SEC, Are you counting johnny football in or out in for this year? Think the dawgs are a little high.

In the Pac12, i like where your head's at w/ USC, but they're a little high. and I think ASU is low.

In the Big12, i think you're very close to good here. Sooners might be a little high, or the cowboys too low, either way. The raiders are low, and TCU might be high. Although i'm down on TCU this year, much more than others.

i also think it's ok to be off from what GOY lines, or vegas lines are if that's what your numbers show. I guess it all depends on how confident you are in your scheme. Vegas, and everyone else has been wrong before. USC last year, for example. But obviously, they're right more often.