My card for week #11 (NCAA Football)

[Helmut]

2-UNIT
19-9

1-UNIT
42-38-2


Illinois -3 (2-units)

After a rough start to the season the Illini have been playing better statistically even though the results have not shown in the win/lose record. They are a very sound football team on defense with the #48 defense against the run and the #28 defense against the pass. It’s not exactly like the schedule has been load with cupcakes either with games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers. Last week the held the probable hiesman trophy winner to 108 yards passing and the Buckeye running game to 116 yards on 47 carries. Illinois has a real good rushing attack at #25 overall. The freshman quarterback all though inaccurate at times is a good runner and has shown the ability to make some big plays.

Purdue had come out of the blocks scoring tons of points this season. However games against Indiana State, Ball State and Miami-Ohio may have shown it was more the porous defense’s rather than good offense. Since entering big ten play Purdue is only averaging 15.8 points per game. Purdue has scored at total of 3 points in two games against the better defensive teams in Penn State and Wisconsin this season. The Illini have the # 26 overall defense which is actually ahead of Penn State’s.

All though Purdue has played better on defense they are still #110 in total defense and have the #101 defense against the run. They are still getting gashed in the running game, here are the in conference run defense statistics for the Boilermakers:

Michigan State 34/145
Penn State 50/240
Wisconsin 46/241
Northwestern 42/168
Iowa 40/286
Minnesota 45/194

Illinois is almost assuredly to get 200 yards rushing here and with some solid defense this one should be a winner

Alabama +18 (2-units)

Alabama always seems to play to the level of there competion. Barely beating teams like Duke, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt. Then for inexplicably no reason playing very hard fought close games with top 15 teams in Auburn, Arkansas and Florida. LSU has a lot of very large margin victories this season, however then come against some very bad teams in Fresno State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tulane, Arizona, UL-Lafayette. However when the stepped up the competition in Tennessee, Auburn and Florida the games were very close. Both Auburn and Florida have good run defenses and LSU could not do anything rushing only gaining 41 yards rushing on Florida and 90 on Auburn. Alabama has the #31 overall rush defense and #15 overall defense. LSU looks like it’s going to need to score 30+ to cover this big number and against the bama defense I don’t think that they will be able to do it. Since the games with Auburn and Florida who have similarly ranked defenses they couldn’t crack 11 points.

Vanderbilt +2 (1-unit)

Vanderbilt does not have to worry about defending the run here, because Kentucky can not run it worth a lick. Vanderbilt has the #19 ranked defense against the pass. The Commodors should be able to drop 8-9 guys and defend the pass. They have played close games this season against much tougher opposition. Vandy rolled up big yards and scored lots of points on a Duke team with a much better defense than the Wildcats. The Wildcats have the #116 ranked defense. Vandy has some ability to both throw and run the ball. Give me the more diverse team on offense and the team with the much better defense and two points to boot.

 

[3wiggler]

Illinois -3 (2-units)

After a rough start to the season the Illini have been playing better statistically even though the results have not shown in the win/lose record. They are a very sound football team on defense with the #48 defense against the run and the #28 defense against the pass. It’s not exactly like the schedule has been load with cupcakes either with games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers. Last week the held the probable hiesman trophy winner to 108 yards passing and the Buckeye running game to 116 yards on 47 carries. Illinois has a real good rushing attack at #25 overall. The freshman quarterback all though inaccurate at times is a good runner and has shown the ability to make some big plays.

Purdue had come out of the blocks scoring tons of points this season. However games against Indiana State, Ball State and Miami-Ohio may have shown it was more the porous defense’s rather than good offense. Since entering big ten play Purdue is only averaging 15.8 points per game. Purdue has scored at total of 3 points in two games against the better defensive teams in Penn State and Wisconsin this season. The Illini have the # 26 overall defense which is actually ahead of Penn State’s.

All though Purdue has played better on defense they are still #110 in total defense and have the #101 defense against the run. They are still getting gashed in the running game, here are the in conference run defense statistics for the Boilermakers:

Michigan State 34/145
Penn State 50/240
Wisconsin 46/241
Northwestern 42/168
Iowa 40/286
Minnesota 45/194

Illinois is almost assuredly to get 200 yards rushing here and with some solid defense this one should be a winner

Good Analysis and great 2** record...I am kicking around the other side of that bet. Purdue wins one for bowl elgibility playing at Illinois on senior day. There is no question Illinois defense has stepped up. They have stifled a couple of good running teams. However, I was absolutely shocked to see them as 3 point favorites. Their home record is miserable. I won a money line bet with Ohio earlier in the year. Purdue has had trouble with running QB's but their defensive stats look a lot worse than they truly are.

Purdue isn't even in the same league as Illinois when it comes to strength of schedule but their losses are all against better teams @ND,@Iowa, home to Wiscy and PSU. Illinois has lost at Home to Ohio, Indiana, and Syracuse. 0-3 ATS as a home favorite is staggering!

I don't like to see >50% of the public on a dog. Vegas set Illinois as a 3pt fave when the power rankings have Purdue as a 3 pt fav. They got 50/50 action on the game so they set it in the right place.

QB coach from Illinois moved over to Purdue in the offseason. Don't have all the details but he must have recruited Juice and know some tendencies and weaknesses. I am kicking the money line around and it is always good to discuss with someone on the other side.

 

[Troutman]

:smiley_acbe: Good Luck Helmut

 

[redbearde]

I dig that card Helmut. Don't have the balls myself to take Illinois, but I agree with your analysis. That team is young and should be scary next year.

I'm on Bammer with you...

GL on vandy.

go team!

 

[eames]

HELMUT Good luck This weekend

Also i Am happy To inform You That i have Added You To my BUDDY LIST.

CONGRATS Amigo.



'an_horse'

 

[Helmut]

thanks eames
'an_horse'

 

[Helmut]

Thanks for the response 3wiggler. I just like the fact that the Illini can run the ball and play some defense. Maybe I’m still a little biased from watching a mediocre Iowa team absolutely destroy Purdue. I’m not kidding if Iowa would have turned it over a few times they would have put 70 up on Purdue.

 

[3wiggler]

You have me scared of my play. Illinois running game vs. Purdue D is the biggest advantage either side has in this game. I have won three bets against favorte Illinois at home and I feel obliged to ride it out.

 

[Helmut]

Oklahoma State –16 (1-unit)

Got to fade Baylor once again here. They have not run the ball at all this season. Last week they were dead last #119 in rushing and believe it or not after last weeks effort of 20 yards on 29 carries they actually increased the margin. The new quarterback Szymanski is not nearly as good as Bell was as evident from his 16/30 for 197-yard effort. He is indecisive and was sacked six times last week. Baylor defense is pretty horrendous as well giving up 55 and 63 points in last two road games including 31 to the worst offense in the conference in Colorado. Also I looked it up and they gave up almost 700 yards of offense to Texas Tech last week. Oklahoma State needs this game sitting at 5 wins with games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma remaining. Oklahoma is also has a very balanced offense and has shown the ability to score points as evident by the 41 scored on a strong cornhusker defense.


Arizona +13.5 (2-units)

Just looking at this in simple terms, the Wildcats have given up 16, 10, 20, 21, 17 points in home games this season. They only gave up 16 to BYU and 21 to USC, which have strong offensive units. The Wildcats got quarterback Tuitama back last week after missing the last 2.5 games due to injury and are coming of a big win up in Pullman. California has the #97 ranked defense in the league and are particularly susceptible to the pass with the #114 ranked pass defense. While Arizona does not have the greatest offense in the world they should be able to score enough points to cover this large number with their solid defense. California just might be looking ahead to Southern Cal next week.

 

[B.A.R.]

Excellent write-ups Helmut. Enjoyed them very much. I am getting intrigued by Illy now.

Helluva job on the 2 unit plays

 

[Helmut]

thnx man
:shake:

 

[biggoob]

great insight on all your plays !!! is it possible Okie St is a 2 unit play?
baylor is not able to play on the road and as you say - okie st is @ home looking to become bound...

 

[biggoob]

bowl bound i meant..

 

[Helmut]

Connecticut +7.5 (1-unit)

I really like what I saw in Uconn’s last game against Rutgers. In my opinion they outplayed them and should have won. They out gained Rutgers 255 to 237 and were not for two stupid plays a punt block for a TD and a fumble return for a TD they would have won. Pittsburgh is coming of two games where they couldn’t move the ball worth a lick gaining 236 yards against Rutgers and 214 against South Florida. Now they are going on the road to face another solid defensive unit in the Huskies. Looks like the Huskies might have found a running back for the remainder of the season as Donald Brown rushed for nearly 200 yards in the last game. The Huskies have averaged nearly 200 yards rushing per game and are 14th in the nation in rushing offense. Pittsburgh has the #65 ranked rush defense. The Huskies have never lost a home game in November as a division I-A program. Connecticut has also had an additional week to prepare for this game. Pittsburgh will be without TE Darrell Strong for this game. Wannstedt had this to say about the defensive line:

“We are (shallow). We're trying to redshirt a few freshmen. Without playing those freshmen we're down to the bare minimum now. They're all young kids but that's where we're at right now. Really, the only guys we'd be putting in are other freshmen.”

I would expect Connecticut to have a great deal of success running the ball and I look for an outright win.

EXPECT TO HEAR A LOT OF THIS……..AND THAT’S ANOTHER UCONN FIRST DOWN

http://www.huskydirect.com/

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

With ya on Vandy and Bama. Good health on Uconn though.

Cal will be looking ahead some...but they also keep shutting out AZ. GL though...i'll be rooting for a cover for you, cuz it'll mean a better line on Cal for me next week.