MWC Week 4

[JPicks]

2007 Record 30-23-1 (56.6%) +8.91 Units
2008 Record 5-5 -0.29 Units
Week 3 3-1 +3.21
EDITED IN: Week 4 2-2 +0.42 Units


Wasn't around to look at the openers, but it doesn't seem like I've missed much. I'll add some thoughts about each game later, but after glancing at the lines I don't see anything that looks way off. Lines are certainly tightening up compared to where I think they should be. As the lines are now I don't see myself playing any straight full game lines. I do have a couple of totals and first half bets that I want to see.

Week 4 Plays/Leans

Utah -7' -103 1 Unit
NMU +10 1 Unit and +320 1/2 Unit
CSU +6' 1 Unit and +210 1/2 Unit


Just posting the Week 3 recaps for the moment.


Week 3 Recaps

Finally got the bus moving in the right direction in Week 3 highlighted by NM cashing a big ML play. Should have had the balls to play both the spread and ML for full units.

AFA/HOU

Game was played in Dallas under some pretty crappy weather conditions in front of 2600 fans. The Falcons won this game in the turnover category. As a team they are +6 this year and much of that credit goes to Calhoun for putting players in place who may not be the most talented, but make few mistakes. The Falcons were outgained 534-380 yards (247-185 at half) but had zero turnovers to the Cougars two. The Falcons completed ZERO passes and have had 15 yards of passing offense in their last two games.

The Falcons lost free safety Aaron Kirchoff (shoulder) and fullback todd Newell (ankle) to injuries against Houston. No word on their status for this week.

Stanford/TCU

Special teams came close to costing TCU an easy victory. A blocked punt for a TD and a punt return for an apparent TD (was overturned as the punt returner stepped out at the 13) were the main two blemishes in an otherwise solid performance by TCU. They doubled up the Cardinals in time of possession and total yards, won the TO battle 3-0, and held Stanford to 2-12 on 3rd downs. Stanford had runs of 30 and 38 yards and ended the day with 71 yards rushing. The score won't show it, but TCU dominated Stanford in this one.

WYO/NDSU

No TV for this one so only a box score review. Wyoming should be happy they won the TO battle (4-1) as it's probably the only reason they won. Dax Crum was an ugly 11/17 for 90 yards and the running game only managed 4.3 yards a carry vs. the 1-AA Bison. 4.3 isn't bad, but when your team has bad QB play and are built around running the ball I expect better. The Cowboys had 78 total yards in the first half and hadn't scored a TD in 97 minutes before Devin Moore got in the end zone with 8:15 to go in the 3rd.

BYU/UCLA

The power of the Cougars @ home was in full effect. Wyoming should take that if you don't have a high power offense, or a respectable offense, don't turn the ball over three times in the first half in Provo. Four of BYU's six first half touchdowns went 37 yards or shorter. The second the Bruins got down by a couple of touchdowns this thing was over. You can only say so much about a 59-0 trouncing that isn't covered in the score.

SJSU/SDSU

This was a bit more of an ass kicking than expected. Ryan Lindley came back to earth a bit and the Aztecs couldn't run the ball (17 carries for 6 yards, 0.4 avg) and they couldn't stop the rush (55 for 293 yards, 5.3 avg). The Spartans out gained the Aztecs 476 yards to 146 and held the ball for an amazing 20 minutes more than SDSU. A dominating performance by the Spartans.

AZ/NM

I'll be short here as I'm sure this one still stings a few around here. Game was won by the NM defense. Secondary did a good enough job to cause some mistakes from Tuitama and hold Grigsby under a hundred yards. Porterie held on to the ball and that was the key in this one. The big stat in this one was the ability of NM to run the ball with Ferguson and Baker (36 carries for 207 yards) and keep the AZ offense off the field. A perfect 5/5 night by the NM freshman kicker sealed the deal. Lobos probably played to their full potential in this one. The factors that they were at home (3rd straight at home), facing 0-3, and heading to Tulsa next week turned this into the perfect storm.

Utah/Utah ST.

bleh. Utah's special teams play was bad, but that's about all your going to have to talk about here. The Aggies went 49 yards on their 2 scores off of Utah TO's. In fact the Aggies only had one drive over 28 yards in the entire game and that was in garbage time with under 2 minutes to go in the game.

UNLV/ASU

Shocker. I'm sure other shave better opinions than I do on this one as I still haven't seen it. DVR screwed me on that one. I did see the Rebels have now gone 3 straight games w/out a TO. Really bummed I can't watch this game as I'm still blown away the Rebels pulled this off. Should have grabbed the ML.

 

[JPicks]

By Pete Fiutak

1. It’s early and a million things are going to happen over the next two months, but right now is when opinions are formed when it comes to the national title discussion.

Work with me here.

If all things are equal, the SEC champion will play for the national title. Period. That’s a given after the last two championship games and with the respect the league is given.

It’s also a given that USC will play for the title if it wins out. No way, no how does the No. 1 team in the country fall out of one of the top two spots if it’s unbeaten. However, that might not be fair.

At the moment, I think USC is No. 1, you think USC is No. 1, and just about everyone outside of Athens, Gainesville, Norman and Baton Rouge thinks USC is No. 1. However, the BCS race is about who deserves to be in and not who we all think should be in.

Right now, the SEC and Big 12 are the top two conferences and there’s a 37-mile wide difference between them and everyone else. The Big Ten might be maligned, but it’s probably No. 3 in the pecking order (the conference is 25-6 so far, even if the wins aren’t all that great), and after last weekend, you might have to put the Mountain West in the number four slot. At the very least, the Mountain West has to be ahead of the Pac 10 after going 5-0 in head to head in matchups. If you’re not prepared to go that far, then you at least have to admit that the Pac 10 isn’t all that great.

Let’s say Ohio State loses two more games. It wouldn’t be a shocker if the Buckeyes lost at Wisconsin and/or at Michigan State and/or at Illinois and/or against Penn State. All of a sudden, the USC win over OSU wouldn’t be that big a deal, while winning the Pac 10 title would inspire little more of a yawn. This year, it's not like winning the Big 12 or SEC title.

So if all things are equal, should USC deserve to be playing for the national title over an unbeaten BYU or Utah? How about over an unbeaten Oklahoma or Missouri? Again, it’s not about what we believe, it’s about what we can prove. Remember, 94% of the world handed USC the 2006 Rose Bowl and forgot about Texas, and 97% of the planet had Ohio State walking over Florida to win the 2007 BCS Championship game.

I know, I know, this is all looking a thousand steps ahead, and as last year proved, just about everyone will screw up at some point, so let’s look at a more realistic scenario.

BYU or Utah goes unbeaten. The SEC champion has one loss, but let’s say it’s a really good loss, like Georgia losing at LSU or LSU losing at Florida. The Big 12 champion has one loss, but let’s say it’s a really good loss, like Missouri at Texas or Oklahoma to Texas in overtime. Now let’s say USC trips up in a Stanford-like shocker. NOW what do you do?

Sorry for the mind-melt, but this could be a problem. This is going to be a really, really interesting ride, and there could be a really, really interesting theoretical debate.


The Mountain West's Big Weekend

By Richard Cirminiello

3. Message to Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson: Today would be a great time to turn up the heat on the powers-that-be and start campaigning for an automatic BCS bowl berth for the conference when the current contract comes up. Without much warning, the Mountain West has clearly passed the Big East in the express lane to the Bowl Championship Series thanks to the most incredible weekend in league history. Heck, it might be sneaking up on the Pac-10, which went a miserable 3-7 since Friday, including a shocking 0-4 versus the Mountain West.

The body of work in less than 24 hours is a little hard to digest...or believe. BYU handed UCLA its most lopsided loss in almost 80 years. UNLV and New Mexico stunned Arizona State and New Mexico, respectively. TCU easily disposed of Stanford. And Utah remained in the Top 25 with an easy win over in-state rival Utah State. In all, the conference went an unexpected 7-1, surpassing in the pecking order a Big East Conference that got a key South Florida win over Kansas and little else since the season began. Program for program, the Mountain West is better than the Big East and is closing the divide on the other Big Six conferences, something commissioner Thompson should be shouting from the mountaintop over the next few months.

 

[RJ Esq]

Please be on Utah.

 

[E.T.G.]

great week for your conference. great friggen week

 

[CapTwo]

Please be on Utah.

:shake:

I was thinking the same thing, but for BYU.

rayer

 

[JPicks]

Not a ton of time so I'll just go game by game with request until I get to the whole card.

Utah/AFA

I was completely down on AFA when the season started. They lost everybody that ran the ball for them last year and pretty much everybody that could catch the ball along with their 4 year starter at QB. They blow out S. Utah (who hasn't won a football game in 1-AA since '06), handle Wyoming with ease via a 5-1 TO advantage, and beat Houston in hurricane type weather. Bottom line is I still have little respect for their offense. You could argue that they ran for 380 yards (5.4 ypc) against Houston, but Oklahoma State ran for 380 yards (7.3 ypc) the week prior against the same Houston defense. AFA could only muster 4.1 ypc against a pretty good Wyoming rush defense and it would seem logical to expect about the same against Utah. So at this point I'd grade the AFA passing attack as horrible and their running attack as average to slightly above average. On defense it's clear that their back 7 is a major weakness. They may be w/out their starting FS this week as well. Their DLine, which is supposed to be a strength, got shredded by Houston (6.1 ypc) and did a decent job against Wyoming (4.2 ypc). I believe that the ability of Houston to pass the ball opened up the run game and keep the extra guy out of the box. Wyoming didn't have the passing ability to keep the Falcons honest and they stacked the box against them. They will not have the option of stacking the box against the Utes.

As far as the Utes go there is one worry. They are very thin on the interior DLine At this point they are down 4 DTackles since Spring camp. This only becomes an issue when you face a team that may run the ball 70 times in a game. I think the Utes are to explosive on the offensive side of the ball for the Falcons to be able to run all game. They are going to have to put the ball in the air in order to keep up. The Utah defensive ends are phenomenal and their linebackers are the fastest that AFA will see besides TCU this year.

Traditionally Utah gets stuck with AFA in bad spots on their schedule. Not the case this year as the Utah schedule is set up perfectly for them. Off an easy win against in-state Utah State with another cupcake up next in Weber St. First road conference game of the year for Utah and there is zero reason for them to be worried about anything but this game. Utah is road tested (Michigan), has revenge from last year, and this will be far and away the most talented team (athletes) that many of these AFA kids have seen in their life.

So if I had the option of a 7 I'd be Utah already. Trying to come to terms with laying the 7' or paying the -120 to get it to 7. Utah or nothing in this one for me.

 

[JPicks]

:shake:

I was thinking the same thing, but for BYU.

rayer

This is a bit tougher than the Utah one. I'll get to a more detailed w/up later, but my initial thoughts on this one is to play the 1st half rather than the game. 28 is way to big of a spread for me to play in any fashion. The idea of expecting a team to win by 28+ points to weeks in a row isn't what I do. Depending on the total and the 1st half line I'll either be on an under here or BYU 1st half. I will not be laying 4 TD's.

 

[HUNT]

love the utah thoughts bro...this is a fundamentally sound football team who knows how to wrap up and tackle. I doubt AF will make it very many times past the second level due to the excellent tackling..but I hate laying points in a game like this so imma put em on a ML parlay.

I am taking BYU first half this week so good to see you like that as well bro.

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff bro. Pounded BYU last week but didnt even realize you liked them . UCLA is garbage and it showed .....

Anyway kinda liking the MWC fade this week....like Wyoming but only because they can probably cover the game by just not fucking up and dragging there feet because there defense is solid. 35-7 loss is a winner ....

Thinking about Stanford . Basically because SJST doesnt do much on offense . CHeck there recent road games and they failed to crack 14 points vs a major opponent scoring 23 twice vs Utah State and LATech I believe . Stanford not the type team I want to lay points with but f SJST doesnt win SU just not sure they would cover a less then 2 TD spread.....

Looking @ Iowa State as UNLV off a huge win and favored with a soft offense...took some +3.5 already

Not crazy about UTAH laying a TD or so . AF doesnt impress me except they arent beating themselves which is what utah State did. Also Utah while they layed well @ Michigan still won by just 2 pts thanks to stalling for FGS . Dont think the offense is good as the pts per show....thinking under here depending on what it is....

Had NM as well but already faded them at -9.5 -120......

Interested in the rest of your thoughts ...BOL

 

[HUNT]

Sn,

Utah did whatever they wanted in the 1st half against UM, 2nd half..not so much. I am in the minority that believe Utah was not playing conservative in second half of that game.

But it was impressive to go into the Big House and win...the intangibles of that game definitely favored UM (appy state loss, Rich Rod first game) but Utah withstood a lot of shit and won becasue of a great defense and special teams...even if it was against an inexperienced team.

I also gotta think Utah has had this game circled on the calendar within 24 hours getting back home from Ann Arbor.

I still can't lay the points, but am confident they win.

 

[RetroVK]

 

[JPicks]

love the utah thoughts bro...this is a fundamentally sound football team who knows how to wrap up and tackle. I doubt AF will make it very many times past the second level due to the excellent tackling..but I hate laying points in a game like this so imma put em on a ML parlay.

I am taking BYU first half this week so good to see you like that as well bro.

Sn,

Utah did whatever they wanted in the 1st half against UM, 2nd half..not so much. I am in the minority that believe Utah was not playing conservative in second half of that game.

But it was impressive to go into the Big House and win...the intangibles of that game definitely favored UM (appy state loss, Rich Rod first game) but Utah withstood a lot of shit and won becasue of a great defense and special teams...even if it was against an inexperienced team.

I also gotta think Utah has had this game circled on the calendar within 24 hours getting back home from Ann Arbor.

I still can't lay the points, but am confident they win.

First off thanks for the compliments in last weeks thread. As far as Utah NOT playing conservative in Ann Arbor for the 2nd half I completely agree. The Wolverines made some great 2nd half adjustments and Utah was fortunate to have withstood a great rally. The desire of Rich Rod to press his luck at the end of the 1st half may have ended up costing them that game. From a Utah perspective that 2nd half battle tested them for ANY situation that they'll see on the road this year. In the end it was probably a blessing in disguise that they went threw the difficulties that they had, but enough of that.

The biggest thing about the AFA/Utah game from last year that the Utes have circled is the fact that they got stuffed from the one yard line in 3 straight plays to lose the game. The Utah offensive line is probably about 50 pounds heavier per man vs. the AFA line. I can imagine the OL and DL coaches have been hammering the guys this week about getting outplayed by such a smaller group last year.

I'm with you in the fact that I don't want to lay the points in this spot though. I could stomach short of 7, but after that it gets dicey. I may still go that route as I'm not sure how the Falcons can stay in the game if they're forced to pass, but it may be a better situation for a 2nd half bet if the Falcons find themselves down by 14+. Just trying to wrap my head around the idea that this isn't the same AFA team that Utah always struggles with. Look at it this way; when Utah went to to a BCS game in 2004 they had the same QB who played last year for the Falcons in Shaun Carney. The guy they have playing now has 15 yards passing against 1-A schools.

 

[JPicks]

Good stuff bro. Pounded BYU last week but didnt even realize you liked them . UCLA is garbage and it showed .....

Anyway kinda liking the MWC fade this week....like Wyoming but only because they can probably cover the game by just not fucking up and dragging there feet because there defense is solid. 35-7 loss is a winner ....

Thinking about Stanford . Basically because SJST doesnt do much on offense . CHeck there recent road games and they failed to crack 14 points vs a major opponent scoring 23 twice vs Utah State and LATech I believe . Stanford not the type team I want to lay points with but f SJST doesnt win SU just not sure they would cover a less then 2 TD spread.....


Looking @ Iowa State as UNLV off a huge win and favored with a soft offense...took some +3.5 already

Not crazy about UTAH laying a TD or so . AF doesnt impress me except they arent beating themselves which is what utah State did. Also Utah while they layed well @ Michigan still won by just 2 pts thanks to stalling for FGS . Dont think the offense is good as the pts per show....thinking under here depending on what it is....

Had NM as well but already faded them at -9.5 -120......

Interested in the rest of your thoughts ...BOL

Fading UNLV as a fav is never a bad idea. I do think fundamentally this UNLV team is the better than any in recent memory. They have the offense to hang with some teams. Defense is a decent question mark though.

I can also understand the thoughts of a AFA/Utah under as the Falcons will do everything in their power to get 4 yards at a time and keep the Utah offense off the field. They'll shorten this game to the best of their abilities and the Utes have had problems in the red zone in years past. One thing they won't do is leave points off the scoreboard if they get there though as Louie Sakoda is possibly the best FG kicker in the country. Still a 26-13 game wouldn't surprise me at all and I'd expect a total in the high 40's at a minimum for this one.

More on NM later, but they have the secondary to battle a Tulsa. Plus they can run the ball which will slow down any opposing offense. Still very unsure about that one and I'm guessing I won't be on a side.

Great to have your thoughts in my thread either way. You always have something that I don't see. :shake:

 

[JPicks]

homer

 

[HUNT]

a bro..great stuff as always...appreciate it.

 

[JPicks]

A little deeper into the BYU/Wyoming game.

BYU should and probably will have their way in this one. While Wyoming has a solid defense their one weakness is their secondary, specifically their corners. Not a good weakness to have against Austin Collie and the Cougars.

Why I think the 1st half bet is the way to go here rather than the game: Wyoming's 1st road game of the year and I'm guessing Dax Crum has never played QB in front 65,000 people. 1st half mistakes are bound to pop up here. BYU has little to no faith in their 2nd string QB and will look to get Max Hall out early rather than running up the score. Hall only played one series in the 3rd Qtr against the Bruins. If it comes to garbage time Karsten Sween will be leading the Cowboys and you'd expect that the coaching staff will be giving him the full playbook as a QB controversy is somewhat brewing again in Laramie. I could easily see a bettor being up 35 in the 4th chewing their nails as Wyoming's 1st string QB leads the offense against the BYU third stringers.
Wyoming defense is best at stopping the run so I doubt we'll see the Cougars just being able to pound the football up and down the field in the 4th quarter to run out of the clock.

Maybe I'm wrong though. Maybe they go up 7 at halftime and use a monster 4th quarter to win by 35. I do know that last year and this year as 10+ point favorites at home they tend to come out and take care of business early and pull off the dogs in the 2nd half. Look no further than CSU from last year as the Cougars were 21 point favs and went into HT with a 21-3 lead only to win 31-16 on a late TD run by the Rams.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Thanks for the analysis in the Utah/AF game. GL this week

 

[JPicks]

A little bit more info on the Utah/AFA game:

Ute football: New receiver could be returning punts

Finally, much-heralded signee Aiona Key is practicing with his Utah teammates. But forget his receiving abilities that earned him all-conference honors as a junior college player at Mount San Antonio College; what everyone really wants to know is how well he can return punts.

Key, whose enrollment into Utah was delayed because of academic issues, finally arrived on Friday. He suited up for Saturday's game but didn't play.

He could see his first game action not as a receiver, but as a punt returner when the No. 20 Utes play at Air Force on Saturday. The 6-foot-4, 209-pound Key will join safety Terrell Cole and receiver David Reed as the leading candidates to become Utah's punt returner.

The Utes' fielding problems against Utah State led coach Kyle Whittingham to call it the worst performance by a punt return team since he has been at Utah.

"For one reason or another, we couldn't secure the ball, so we are going to work on that this week," he said. "Obviously that is priority one."

Key played on special teams and as a backup receiver at Boise State in 2006 before transferring to Mt. SAC. There he set a school touchdown reception record with 17 and finished with 80 catches for 1,112 yards.

"I haven't returned punts since high school," he said. "But I can do it, as long as I catch the ball."

 

[horses]

Jpicks,

Don't forget, it's never too early for BYU to be looking for style points. We'll see what happens but they laid a beatdown on the Cowboys in Provo two years ago, so there is precedent here for a beatdown. If Wyoming couldn't score on NDSU without help, I'm not sure they can score on BYU's 2nd/3rd stringers either. Wyoming's hope for a cover (winning is out of the question) lies with pounding the ball btw the tackles and hoping for some field position breaks...unfortunately, the K and P both suck as well.

BYU will probably outscore Wyoming 21-0 in a quarter; I don't want to try and predict which one.

Good luck...

 

[JPicks]

Good call on the special teams Horses. BYU has found themselves a great kickoff guy as well. Teams aren't having the option of returning the ball much against the Cougars as balls are consistently leaving the back of the end zone. It's tough to score when you have to start from your own 20 every time. So beyond Wyoming having a terrible punter and kicker they also have to deal with a good special teams unit on the other side. Still rolling with the first half bet but I think both 1st half and game are probably pretty solid.

Adding Utah -7' (-103) Want to buy down to the 7 but not for -125.

 

[JPicks]

CSU/HOU

I've been digging into this game a bit more lately and I'm starting to really like the Rams. They haven't done a damn this year on the ground, but I really like this game to be their breakout. Houston has done a terrible job stopping teams in the ground game (OkState 51 att, 379 yards, 7.4 ypc and AF 71 att, 380 yards 5.4 ypc). That's a lot of wear and tear on a defensive line. Add to the fact that Houston has yet to leave Dallas from the Hurricane Ike and I think you may have a lackluster effort from the defensive front of Houston.

Situationally the Cougars travel to ECU next weekend while the Rams are off of a bye.

I'll be on the Rams but I'm hoping for a 7 before kickoff. Not sure if or how much I'll play on the ML/Spread.

 

[JPicks]

NMU +10 1 Unit and +320 1/2 Unit

 

[JPicks]

TCU tailback Aaron Brown will be available to play for the first time this season when the Horned Frogs play rival SMU on Saturday in Dallas.

The senior missed the first three games of the season because of a violation of university policy. Redshirt freshman safety Sir Demarco Bledsoe, who also missed the first three games for violating university policy, will not play.

"It’s good to have him back," TCU coach Gary Patterson said of Brown.

Without Brown, TCU (3-0) is averaging 241.3 yards a game rushing this season, which is 13th best in the nation.

Juniors Ryan Christian and Joseph Turner have carried the load at tailback, combining for 297 yards and six touchdowns. Sophomore quarterback Andy Dalton is second on the team with 163 rushing yards and four TDs.

Brown, who was listed second on the depth chart heading into the season, will add another pass-catching back to the backfield. He had 490 rushing and 281 receiving yards last season even though he was slowed by injuries. Brown’s season ended two games early after he sustained an ankle injury against UNLV on Nov. 17.

 

[Marlo]

Good luck this weekend Picks.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks Marlo.


Adding CSU +6' 1 Unit and ML +210 1/2 unit. Refuse to pay 25 cents for the 7 and it's not coming.

 

[JPicks]

Utah -8 2nd half 1 unit