MWC Week 3

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
2007 Record 30-23-1 (56.6%) +8.91 Units
2008 Record 2-4 -3.50 Units

1-3 -3.40 Units in Week 2. Lost the turnover battle 13-4 in three games where I bet the spread. Never going to win with that #.


Week 2 Recaps

Wyoming -3 2 Units

Say goodbye to Joe Glenn. I can't imagine a worst offensive team in the country. Hard to put into words how bad the Cowboys looked on Saturday. At this point I don't even know if AFA is any good, which I don't think they are, but Wyoming made them look like the steel curtain. The fact that Dax Crum is better than Sween is a true sign of how little offensive talent is on that team. Any team with an offense should smoke these guys down the line. Should be a lame duck situation here before it's over.

Notre Dame -20' 1 Unit

Nothing but props here for the Aztecs. The Irish tried to run the ball and they just couldn't. Lindley looked really good and probably has a bright future with the Aztecs. Just one of those games that looked to easy and we all know how those turn out.

New Mexico +120 ML 1 Unit

Not upset with this at all. Portiere played like a complete jackass and he's certainly the entire reason they lost this game. 4 to 1 turnover ratio and falling down by 14 early on sealed the deal for the Lobos. Still very impressed with their defense.

Utah/UNLV O42 1 Unit

This one was essentially over after the Rebels drove 80 yards down the field on their 1st possession. They have the personnel on offense to score on anybody. Still a good team to bet some overs with.



Week 3 Plays/Leans

BYU -7 (-125) 1 Unit
NMU +10.5 (-102) 1/2 Unit and NMU ML +355 1/2 Unit
SJSU -6 (-108) 1 Unit
UNLV/ASU O51 (-107) 1 Unit


All leans at this point as I'm gun shy.

BYU -7 (I'll pay -120 if I have to, but I'm sitting and hoping for it to fall)

Utah State +24' Whittingham will not run up the score on Brent Guy, but this still may not be enough points. Utah up 35 at halftime would present a nice situation to bet the Aggies at half.

NMU +10' Talked about it already in the dedicated thread. Just watching the line here.

SJSU -6 Looking for a pretty big letdown by the Aztecs after last weeks visit to ND.

AFA/HOU Under 52 Any Falcon total in the 50's is almost an automatic under bet for me right now.

Haven't looked at the UNLV/ASU game yet.



Week 3 Injury Report

Not a complete list as I haven't been able to spend as much time this week on the MWC as I'd like.

Utah has some holes on the defensive line after losing two DT's to injuries already this year.

This season, the Utes lost starting defensive tackle Kenape Eliapo to a broken foot during the Michigan game and lost his replacement, Lei Talamaivao, to a broken ankle in Saturday's win over UNLV.

"After what happened last year, the coaches have been harping on us all in the offseason about stepping up if someone goes out and that is what we focused on," linebacker Stevenson Sylvester said. "We focused on developing depth and filling in."

Eliapo is out for six to eight weeks while Talamaivao had surgery Monday and is out for the season. Senior Aaron Tonga and freshmen Sealver Siliga, Derrick Shelby and Dave Kruger are all getting looks as possible replacements.

UNLV lost two LB's against Utah.

As was expected, UNLV coach Mike Sanford announced Tuesday morning that junior linebacker Starr Fuimaono will miss the remainder of the 2008 season with a torn ACL in his left knee. Fuimaono will undergo surgery in the next 10 days to repair the damage.

He was hurt in the second quarter of Saturday's 42-21 loss at Utah when his knee buckled while being double-teamed on kick coverage.

Fuimaono racked up 14 tackles in the season-opening victory over Utah State, and was expected to fill a good portion of the void left in the linebacking corps by the graduation of Beau Bell.

The Rebels also lost middle linebacker Ronnie Paulo against the utes, but he is expected to make it back this week. The Rebels will have a true freshman filliing in for Fuimaono.

BYU also lost a starting LB.

PROVO - Their two top linebackers graduated. A projected starter blew out his knee in spring ball and was lost for the season. Just before fall camp started, a key backup linebacker was lost because he needed season-ending surgery for a kidney ailment.
Naturally, the first major injury of the season for the BYU Cougars came at linebacker, the position (besides quarterback) where they could least afford to lose a guy.
Coach Bronco Mendenhall said at his Monday news conference that starting weakside linebacker Vic So'oto broke his foot during the fourth or fifth play, a noncontact play for him, in BYU's 28-27 win over Washington.
So'oto underwent surgery Monday and will be out between four and eight weeks.
"One of the doctors was very optimistic that it could be four [weeks] and another was much more conservative, saying it was going to be at least eight," Mendenhall said.
Snow College transfer Coleby Clawson split time at the Will spot with So'oto in the Northern Iowa game and played virtually the entire Washington game. He will obviously step in as the starter.
After that, Mendenhall said there is "quite a drop-off" in game readiness.
 
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Been waiting for this thread.

A few more injuries to our ( unlv ) back seven and we will have to start recruiting showgirls to play back there.

For those that don't know the afa/houston game is no longer a true home game...


Sept. 10, 2008
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The Air Force Academy's football game this Saturday against the University of Houston has been moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas, and will start at 2:30 p.m. Central time, according to officials at Houston. The game was originally scheduled Saturday at 2:30 p.m. at John O'Quinn Field at Robertson Stadium in Houston, but alternate plans were made due to Hurricane Ike which is predicted to affect the Houston area this weekend.
 
good stuff jpicks....hope we cash byu and sjst if you decide to play em...good luck with the card. you really think that byu is gonna fall? i wouldn't think so...i was thinking the other way
 
Good call on the Hou/AFA move. I wrote it in another thread, but forgot to put it in here.

Joe--It's been falling all week from the 10', but I'm sure I'm living a dream for it to make it's way down to 7. Probably a bit of resistance there. I'm sure I'll lock in the -120 this afternoon at some point.
 
Jpicks, what are your thoughts on the UNLV/ASU Over 50.5? It looks like ASU could over that by themselves with the injuries you pointed out on D for UNLV Only concern may be a lookahead to Georgia for ASU...
 
Still looking at it mets, but it would be my initial lean based exclusively on what I know about the rebels. Carpenter should be able to tear apart the Rebel secondary and I'd expect the Sun Devils to get 35 in this spot as an average. The question to me is based on the output of the Rebels. 17 seems to be a reasonable expectation. So ya at first glance I think it'd be over or nothing, but need to dig into it a bit.

As far as the look ahead it can cut both ways as far as the total works. In one regard you may find the game close at 28-21 late with ASU still playing their starters as they didn't bring their A game. You may also find ASU not looking ahead and up 42-7 just running out the clock in the 4th with their 2nd string. I think the over hits more often than not here if the Rebels cover as they aren't going to stop the Sun Devils from scoring.
 
JPicks - Good luck as always brotha! Just be wary of SJST, as they throttled my Aztecs last year. So, this is a big revenge game, and SDSU is still lookin for their first win.

P.S. Fuck Wyoming...

:cheers:
 
Thanks Aztec. I think SDSU is going to have to wait until next weekend to get that elusive first victory. They did play well last week which was nice to see. And my apologies with Wyoming.


Final Card for the Week:

BYU -7 (-125) 1 Unit
NMU +10.5 (-102) 1/2 Unit and NMU ML +355 1/2 Unit
SJSU -6 (-108) 1 Unit
UNLV/ASU O51 (-107) 1 Unit


Sorry for the lack of updates and discussion. It's been a crazy busy week. GL to all this weekend.
 
JP - Please talk me out of making a play on AFA +3...

:shake:


I'd love to man, but the Falcons are on my no clue list right now. I still don't think they are any good, but they certainly have took care of Wyoming. Just don't know if I had the Cowboys to high or if AFA really has some solid line play and it's carrying the team. I do know that the Falcons are pretty one dimensional, something like 10 pass attempts, over their first two games and I don't know how they react if they get down.

So ya I really have no idea if they're great, good, average, or horrible. :hang:
 
I'd love to man, but the Falcons are on my no clue list right now. I still don't think they are any good, but they certainly have took care of Wyoming. Just don't know if I had the Cowboys to high or if AFA really has some solid line play and it's carrying the team. I do know that the Falcons are pretty one dimensional, something like 10 pass attempts, over their first two games and I don't know how they react if they get down.

So ya I really have no idea if they're great, good, average, or horrible. :hang:

Should've gone with my gut. AFA lookin solid right now, up 31-21 with like 12 min left in the game.

Ah well. . thanks anyway bro. :shake:
 
Thanks Aztec. I think SDSU is going to have to wait until next weekend to get that elusive first victory. They did play well last week which was nice to see. And my apologies with Wyoming.


Final Card for the Week:

BYU -7 (-125) 1 Unit
NMU +10.5 (-102) 1/2 Unit and NMU ML +355 1/2 Unit
SJSU -6 (-108) 1 Unit
UNLV/ASU O51 (-107) 1 Unit


Sorry for the lack of updates and discussion. It's been a crazy busy week. GL to all this weekend.


3-1 well done.
Any luck in OT and the over hits as well.

How about the rebels ?!?!?!?!?!

And the MWC goes 7-1 SU and 6-1 ATS ( assume that wyoming didnt cover their game against the fcs opponent which would mean 6-2 ATS )


In retrospect , I think Arizona was my worst bet of the year.

look forward to next weeks thread.

Arizona was my worst made bet this year.
 
3-1 well done.
Any luck in OT and the over hits as well.

How about the rebels ?!?!?!?!?!

And the MWC goes 7-1 SU and 6-1 ATS ( assume that wyoming didnt cover their game against the fcs opponent which would mean 6-2 ATS )


In retrospect , I think Arizona was my worst bet of the year.

look forward to next weeks thread.

Arizona was my worst made bet this year.

Thanks Kyle. Great great win for those Rebels. Couldn't be happier about that one.

MWC is now 5-0 vs. the Pac-10 this year and 3 of those victories have been on the road. Conference is definitely strong.

Among the games that didn't get alot of media attention yesterday I have to say that I was very impressed with the way TCU played even though it took them until the 2nd half to put it away. They dominated that game.


3-1 +3.21 Units For the Week (Edited in)
 
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Thanks Kyle. Great great win for those Rebels. Couldn't be happier about that one.

MWC is now 5-0 vs. the Pac-10 this year and 3 of those victories have been on the road. Conference is definitely strong.

Among the games that didn't get alot of media attention yesterday I have to say that I was very impressed with the way TCU played even though it took them until the 2nd half to put it away. They dominated that game.


Yup the top 3 all looked impressive and air force and unm are starting to look competitive.
 
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