MWC Week 3 Thoughts and Plays

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
YTD 6-2-1 +3.9 Units<O:p</O:p
Last Week 6-0 +6 units<O:p</O:p
<O:p
Air Force vs TCU
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I only know that I won’t be placing TCU here. Frogs just lost what is most likely their biggest game of the year and now have a short week to prepare for Air Force. Add to that traveling to Colorado, preparing for the triple option and I just can’t back them. Waiting for the line to see if the Falcons will be attractive or not. I’d love to get two touchdowns here in a game that I think will be similar to Cal/CSU last weekend.

Points of Interest

Only one team has scored on TCU in the 1<SUP>st</SUP> half over their last 11 games.
AF averaged 7.1 ypc, had 7 more first downs, 500 yards of offense and were only 3/14 on third down conversions against Utah. If they can start converting more third downs they’d have a great offense.
Status of Aaron Brown (starting TCU RB) who sat out the Texas game.
Status of Kip McCarthy (starting AFA RB) who only had four carries against Utah. Listed as doubtful.

Arizona vs New Mexico<O:p</O:p
I don’t have a great feel for Arizona or New Mexico at this point so I’ll probably avoid this game. 1<SUP>st</SUP> game of the year and New Mexico plays a 10-6 game. 2<SUP>nd</SUP> game of the year and they are playing a 44-34 game. Arizona holds BYU to 20 points and then lets Northern Arizona score 24. Hard to find an identity for either team.

Utah vs UCLA (Played UCLA -11 -110) Bookmaker
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Well lets see. Utah has now lost their All-Conference left guard (Boone), starting QB(Johnson), starting RB (Asiata), their best Receiver (Casteel) and their starting tight end. That’s 5 starters from their offensive unit and arguable their 4 best offensive starters . It’s not going to get any easier for them either. Tommy Grady is not built for the spread offense and is basically a horrible QB. Long story short I’ll be on the Bruins anything short of 14 points. UCLA is giving up an average of 1.9 yards a carry this year and Utah will be lucky to get that. So they can’t throw it with Grady at QB and they can’t run against UCLA. It’s going to be tough to score points with those two problems.

Boise State vs Wyoming

Still looking at this one. I would love to see a total in the mid 50’s though. I think Wyoming’s rush defense is good enough to slow down Ian Johnson and I expect a lower scoring game. Wyoming held BSU to 17 points last year which was their lowest output of the year. Here is a great article in the Idaho Statesmen showing a lack of leadership among the Broncos. Don’t be fooled, this is not the same Bronco team that won the Fiesta Bowl and it seems (top 25 ranking) that many haven’t caught up to this fact. Probably play the Cowboys here if the line is right.

Tulsa vs BYU (BYU -6 -110) Bookmaker
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Still researching this one. BYU actually impressed me in Pasadena even in not covering actually outgaining the Bruins by 200 yards. Max Hall was as expected throwing for 400 yards and turning over the ball twice. Curious to see if he’ll be more comfortable on the road at Tulsa than he was @UCLA. BYU defense is as good as advertised as they only gave up 17 points to the Bruins as 10 of the Bruins 27 points were off of turnovers and held them to 236 yards of total offense. Need to do some research on Tulsa before I make a decision on this one.
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UNLV vs Hawaii<O:p</O:p

Hawaii is a way to big of a public team for me to bet their games. I mean that in the sense that every person in the world knows a lot about Hawaii because of their midnight game times. Hawaii may score 80 points against UNLV. I expect a letdown by the Rebels after nearly coming up with an upset over Wisky.

Arizona State vs SDSU (ASU -28 -110)
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I’d love to see a total around 52 here. I expect a major shootout with ASU doing most of the scoring. I’ll be shocked if they don’t roll up 35 points against the Aztecs. Take a look at a team total for ASU. Really surprised this line didn't come out in the 30's. With Stacks on it I can't help but to bite as well.
 
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Hate to bump all this good info but i am a mwc junky too. good info again this week in your mwc roundup jpicks.
 
Great thread per usual.

ASU has found a way to not go over in both games so far when it looked very real that it should/could happen but still agree with you on that.
 
JPicks, nice shit.. Since you didn't get 2 TD's with AF, what you think now?


I think I might have to up my play vs. Utah, things are looking bad over there.

I agree with BYU as well..

GL
 
Thanks for all the great words fellas.

B.A.R. -- I hear what you're saying about ASU, but I just don't think they've seen a defense quite as bad as SDSU. WSU dropped 45 on them and I honestly expect ASU to get 50 here. The fact that ASU has two unders this year only helps shave a couple of points off the total.

ETG -- I won't be on Air Force at +8. At 10.5 I'll take a look, but I was really just hoping for a bad # that I didn't get. I will take a look at the total though as I don't think TCU's offense is clicking quite like it was last year and that could be due to Aaron Brown being out. Not sure if you saw the stat up top, but TCU has only given up one score in the 1st half of their last 11 games. Crazy stuff.
 
Some updates from local newspapers:

ASU/SDSU

After one game, SDSU ranks last in total defense and pass-efficiency defense among the nation's 119 Division I-A teams. The Aztecs, who yielded 30 or more points five times last season, rank 113th in scoring defense and are the third most-penalized team in the country.

From the San Diego Union Tribune


Faced with flinging caution to the wind, largely because of a dearth of depth in the program, SDSU had a participation chart on Saturday that included three true freshmen, nine redshirt freshmen and eight sophomores.

Two seniors who felt the brunt of Brink – free safety Corey Boudreaux and cornerback Scotty James – were making their first career starts. Boudreaux, who was originally signed by the Aztecs as a wide receiver in 2003, did not play football in 2004 or '05. He rejoined the team in the summer of '06.

It is a wobbly wire to walk for SDSU, whose secondary on Saturday had accounted for nine career starts. Long said yesterday that while players such as junior cornerback Vonnie Holmes, a transfer from College of the Canyons who intercepted a pass, will get longer looks in practice this week, no wholesale changes are planned.
“I said after the game that we're going to go through our share of growing pains,” Long said. “That's just the way it is right now.”


Meanwhile over at ASU:

Pushing the pace

ASU gained 25 yards on the first three plays after going to its no-huddle offense with nine minutes left in the second quarter. That started an 80-yard drive that ended with Colorado star linebacker Jordon Dizon being treated for cramps, the Sun Devils scoring their first touchdown and momentum permanently reversed.

"They were substituting a lot with our personnel," Erickson said. "We wanted to slow that down. We thought we could get out with three wides (receivers) and they would have to sit in one grouping, and that's exactly what happened. It wore them down. We've worked on it quite a bit (in practice). We'll continue to do it."

Small injury concern found as well:

Another problem Saturday night was an anemic running game. Tailback Ryan Torain hurt his ankle – it's not known whether he'll play against San Diego State – and the Sun Devils managed only 138 rushing yards, 250 fewer than they gained against San Jose State.



I'm defenititely off the over here as I just don't know if the Aztecs can score. ASU's defense has only given up one touchdown all year and that drive started on their 17 yard line (CU first qtr). Once they start playing some good Pac 10 offensess I'd be looking for some potential overs. SDSU, San Jose State and Colorado don't count.


TCU/Air Force



I'll be short here as I'm not likely to be on either side. Just throw out some newspaper clipping for those interested in the game.

How's this for a turnaround? After busing home from Austin on Saturday night, TCU had to squeeze in the equivalent of three practices into Sunday. The Frogs (1-1) leave Wednesday for Colorado Springs, Colo., and then face an inspired, 2-0 Air Force team Thursday in their Mountain West opener. Air Force opened conference play Saturday, surprising Utah, 20-12.
"The challenge you have is getting ready for a triple-option team," Patterson said. "Normally, you'd like to have a week. You have to limit your game plan a little bit."

And then the quote from Air Force coach Troy Calhoun:

“You’ve got to be a little more condensed, a little more concise . . . but you’ve still got plenty of time to prepare,” Calhoun said.

Small thing I know, but small things help. Also no word about Aaron Brown (starting TB from TCU) status but Kip McCarthy (starting TB for AFA) was on the practice field on Sunday.



Wyoming/BSU


I don't know what the hell is going on in Wyoming. Still waiting for the internet I guess. No updates out of Cowyboys camp. Couple of random notes about the Cowboys:

The Cowboys have allowed just three third-down conversions this season on 26 attempts. They rank second in the nation in third-down defense.
Wyoming also ranks 10th in total defense (190 yards per game), 13th in pass defense (125 ypg), 21st in rush defense (65 ypg) and 14th in scoring defense (10.5 points per game).

And evidently in Boise they are still recovering from their first loss in 15 games. Not many updates their as well. Hope to get more info as the week progresses.


I'll get to the other games a bit later. Already locked in on BYU and UCLA so I'm in no rush to update those two. Hawaii looks attractive as I just don't think UNLV has the offense to keep up. Hawaii should get theirs and I'm more tempted now that so many got burned last week in their lackluster performance. Staying completely away from NW/AZ.
 
counselor said:
What would you need the line to be to play it?
Click to expand...


I was honestly looking for something in the 17+ range. I'm not a big believer in BSU with the new QB after losing their top 4 wide receivers. Major loss of leadership on that team. Johnson is a great RB, but the Cowboys have been extremely solid against the run so far this year. I'd still need two touchdowns to back the Cowboys away from Laramie.
 
That UCLA game caught my eye, i like it but i kind of thought it was a tricky game. I saw a article how the team is upset with their performance even after they are 2-0. The article basicallly said that they wanted to be 2-0 but not the way they are. UCLA would like to be not turning the ball over as much and having the offense be more profficient.

What if any are you worried about in the BYU game? What stands out to you in this game that makes it appetizing? I like this game as well but to me it seems like fools gold a little bit. I think that BYU may have a hangover from the dissapointing loss to UCLA. Any help you can give woul be much appreciated.

GL on the rest of your card, solid leans.:cheers:
 
Frankie--Good stuff on UCLA. I'm a Utah alumni and I have no doubts whatsoever about that game.

I'd say there are two things that I'm worried about in the BYU game. The first being a letdown. BYU had small aspirations of an undefeated season and a trip to a BCS game. It's really the same story as TCU. The MWC is weak enough that if either school could have got past their top 10 opponent last week then they would have had a great shot at running the table and following the footsteps of Utah and BSU. So you have some concern for a letdown.

My other concern is Max Hall. This will be his third start of his career and it'd be hard to argue that his maturity on the road or lack thereof showed up a bit in Pasadena. I'm still not to worried about that though as his talent still showed up and passed for nearly 400 yards. The difference in the Tulsa game will be less of a crowd problem for the Cougs and the ability to run the ball. Tulsa shouldn't be able to hold BYU to 1.8 ypc like the great UCLA DL did. So the ability to run the ball will take some of the pressure off of Hall's back. GL with whatever route you go, but I don't see this line as a trap. This is a the result of 120 college football teams and the books/public not being able to see how good a team really is or isn't.

Mags-- Thanks man. Have my concerns about TCU, but GL to you as well.
 
jpicks,

good stuff here...if you hear anymore about the status of Aaron Brown or Kip McCarthy, please let me know...thanks...
 
Thanks guys.

Pags11 -- Best I can find on Brown is that he's going to be a gametime decision while Kip McCarthy has been practicing so I'd guess he's a go.

Backfield in motion
Starting tailback Aaron Brown missed his sixth consecutive practice with a knee injury that forced him to miss Saturday's game at Texas, and a decision on his availability for Thursday's game is pending.

Gary Patterson said Brown's status might be made before game day because of the travel restrictions imposed for conference games. Only 64 players can travel, and Patterson might not want to take a player he knows won't play.

Sophomore Joseph Turner is also injured (foot), so true freshman running back Joseph Banyard has been taking snaps with the second-team offense. Chris Smith, a sophomore fullback, has also played some at tailback.

Patterson said there aren't any concerns yet about spoiling Banyard's chances at using a redshirt this season. Players can play in 20 percent of a team's games and still be redshirt.
 
Great thread guys, Im a TCU student so Im a big MWC fan too. The best bet for teh MWC I see this weekend is UCLA over Utah. Poor Utah has lost their whole team and theyrwe losing more wind outta their sails every week. I think UCLA rolls them like 38-10.
 
Pluto--We're on the same boat with that line of thinking.

Pags--Looks like McCarthy WONT be playing afterall. At least it looks doubtful.

It doesn’t look like McCarthy will play

Air Force senior tailback Kip Mc-Carthy sat out most of Tuesday’s practice because of his sprained right knee, and coach Troy Calhoun said he didn’t think McCarthy would play in Thursday’s game against TCU.

“If there’s anybody that could pull it off, it’s him,” Calhoun said. “But I don’t think so.”

Despite missing two practices last week, Mc-Carthy started the Falcons’ game against Utah on Saturday. He did not finish the game, however, and he said this week that it might be best to sit out so his knee can heal completely.

Senior Jim Ollis and freshman Savier Stephens will share most of the tailback load Thursday, Calhoun said, with “possibly,” some help from sophomore Brenton Byrd, a Harrison graduate.


I'm getting really close to playing this under 42. If Brown looks like he is going to be out then I'll most likely add it to the card.
 
Aaron Brown is OUT tonight for the Frogs. TCU/UFA Under 42 (-103)

Starting tailback Aaron Brown will miss his second consecutive game tonight with a knee injury he suffered early in the season-opening victory against Baylor, TCU coach Gary Patterson said.
Brown did not accompany the team to Colorado on Wednesday for the Horned Frogs' Mountain West Conference opener against Air Force. Sophomore tailback Joseph Turner (foot) also did not travel.
 
Just thought I’d add a couple of thoughts about TCU/Air Force game if for no other reason that for me to have them in the coming weeks. Hope this isn't viewed as rubbing salt in the wounds by anybody (I was rooting for the forum to cover the 8). I just wanted to put it on "paper" before my I forgot my thoughts about the game.

TCU

It’s really simple for me. They need a healthy Aaron Brown in order for them to be an above average team. While the defense is still solid, the offense sputters terribly without a solid RB in the backfield. I think they’d be fine with Joseph Turner as well, but the Watts and Christensen kids just don’t have the same explosiveness that Brown has. There were multiple times during the game that I saw runs that I know Brown would have broke for long gains that were stopped for 5 or 6 yards. If you break down the stats Brown and Turner are averaging 5.9 yards a carry while Watts and Christian are average 3.4 yards a carry on 64 carries. Not a small sample size. TCU was forced to throw the ball 43 times against Air Force and they just aren’t going to win that way. Imagine the Ravens being forced to throw 40 times a game. It’s just bad business. Unfortunately, they were forced to throw with their running game only picking up 2.9 yards a carry. Add Brown to the mix and it’s a completely different game. I am more than confident that if they had Brown they would have won by DD’s last night. They were unable to control the clock when ahead and got so far out of whack that they were throwing balls to the end zone when they were on Air Forces 20 yard line with under a minute to go. When Brown is back there will be tremendous value on the Horned Frogs as people don’t realize how valuable he is. Just my .02.
<O:p</O:p
Air Force

First off, remind me to check the status of Jim Ollis next week. The backup RB had a field day outrunning (surprisingly enough) the TCU defense. He limped off the field in OT for the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> time in the game with what looks like an ankle injury. If he or McCarthy can’t go next week it’s potentially damaging news for the Falcons. It also seems that Calhoun wasn’t lying when he said they were going to open up the offense this year. Carney was very accurate (17 of 28) minus one interception. Certainly going to give defenses a lot more to think about in their preparations for the Falcons. Very solid game for the special teams as well. Not really impressed otherwise with the Falcons. Certainly going to be a team to pick some spots to fade as I don’t think they are as good as their record indicates. I’m sure BYU will be a game that will expose their weaknesses.
<O:p</O:p

Overall I’m happy with the Under 42 I played (even if it would have lost). Was certainly nervous/disappointed when the game went into overtime as I thought I was going to be on the wrong side of the “right bet” if there is such a thing. TCU is an absolute great team to play 1<SUP>st</SUP> half unders and 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half overs. Look up the stats on that one. Most of all though, check the status of Aaron Brown in all future TCU bets. They really are a good team, notice I didn’t say great, but in order for them to be good they can’t have Dalton back throwing the ball around 40+ times a game.
 
JPicks said:
I was honestly looking for something in the 17+ range. I'm not a big believer in BSU with the new QB after losing their top 4 wide receivers. Major loss of leadership on that team. Johnson is a great RB, but the Cowboys have been extremely solid against the run so far this year. I'd still need two touchdowns to back the Cowboys away from Laramie.
Click to expand...

My line's at 11.5. Is it low enough to bet Boise, or just stay off it and hope the total hits in the mid 50's? Thanks...
 
counselor said:
My line's at 11.5. Is it low enough to bet Boise, or just stay off it and hope the total hits in the mid 50's? Thanks...
Click to expand...


I just can't feel good about telling you which way to go here. 14 was pretty much my break point for playing the Cowboys. Virginia had multiple chances to score that they didn't get and Utah State doesn't count for anything. Meanwhile BSU came away empty many of times inside of Washinton's 25. I'm just not confident enough that you'll see BOTH of those things happen with the game being in Boise. Breaks usually go towards the home team and it's only amplified for both of these teams with their home field. I'd be ready to lean towards BSU with the low # until you look at this....

Boise State coach Chris Petersen is looking for leaders to emerge on this year’s team after last week’s 24-10 loss at Washington.
“We need our guys that have been around to kind of ratchet it up,” Petersen said Monday.
One of the Broncos’ most experienced players apparently got the message. Senior center Jeff Cavender said he wants to help fill the leadership void.
“We don’t have the leaders we had last year — Korey Hall, Jared Zabransky. All those guys did a great job with leadership and it’s something I need to put on myself,” Cavender said.
“Not only am I a senior, but I’m a veteran guy with lots of career starts and I need to step up and fill that role.”
Cavender will start his 41st consecutive game Saturday against Wyoming at Bronco Stadium, where the Broncos must produce more energy than they had against Washington.
“I just felt a lack of spark, a lack of excitement to be out there, kind of a lackluster kind of game. It’s a hard lesson to learn,” Cavender said. “I’m sure every guy on this team and every coach would agree that we wish we could get that weekend back.”

Once I hear somebody "wants" to step in as a leader 3 games into the season I think it's a bit late. Think of it this way: when your girlfriend/wife wants you to do something it's already to late. You should have wanted to do it to begin with. So I can't back a team that is having internal problems after their 14 game winning streak is broken. So no lean at all for me on the game or total. Sorry I can't be of more assistance.




Hawaii -16.5 (-110) Bookmaker
Hawaii TT O39 -125 Greek

Finally found something under 17 for Hawaii. I really think they are undervalued after last week's debacle and the TT seems like a solid play after seeing CB playing it in his thread.
 
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JPicks said:
I just can't feel good about telling you which way to go here...So no lean at all for me on the game or total. Sorry I can't be of more assistance.
Click to expand...

No, no. Thank you for the insight. Hey, a no-bet is as good as a winner. It's not like I'm not going to bet it because I'm scared. I'm informed. At least I won't be on the wrong side.

Thanks again...
 
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