MWC Week 13

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
28-22-1 +6.91 Units
Last Week 0-1 -1.20 Units

One week and an extra game between SDSU/BYU has me a little over 3 units from my season goal. The waters haven't been smooth, but from reading around the forum I should be happy with + money on my first year of playing CFB. Well I wouldn't say it was my first year, but the previous were all recreational. Anyways on to Week 13.

CSU -3
NMU -10 2 Units
UTAH ML +175

Really wanted to play TCU as there is big battle brewing between NewMexico and TCU who gets the last of the bowl invites for the MWC. NM is 7-4 and TCU is 6-5. Lobos win out and they "should" get an invite but TCU has a little bigger reputation. TCU also has a chance at the Texas bowl if the Big 12 doesn't have the teams to get there. Either way I can't laying 10' with TCU on the road with SDSU one week removed from playing out their best ball of the season.

As far as the two plays I'm more than confident that WYO and UNLV have both paced it in. CSU/WYO is a big rivalry game out in the Rocky Mountains and with this possibly being Sonny Lubick's final game I expect a big crowd and a big vicotry for the Rams. Not sure where this line goes, but if it goes down to 2' I'll probably add another unit.

At NM I really thought I might lay 14 or more here, hence the 2 units. This looks to be the first real mistake I've seen the books make with a MWC line in the last two weeks. New Mexico run defense is very solid, as they showed against Mack (Utah) last week. If the Rebels can't get Summers going they have no offense.

I'll have some thoughts about BYU/UTAH before the week is out. I doubt I'll be playing it beyond a recreational standpoint. My thoughts are bound to be homerish, but I will take a look at the under as I think both defenses are better than either offense.
 
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Good to know, Jpicks. Those both jumped out at me as well. I like those lines and may hit those today (first bet in two weeks, woohoo!).
 
Good stuff JPicks, have followed you before, appreciate your insight, and these both look solid. Tailing you here on both.:cheers:

Good job being + for the year
 
Hey JPicks! I completely agree with your assessment of New Mexico. The Lobos have more talent at the skill position, and the better overall defense. If it drops below 10, I'm all over it.

Unfortunately, I was dead on about my Aztecs last week. That AFA rushing attack is a monster, and we didn't make it any easier on ourselves with those turnovers.

I lean to TCU this week...would probably be a hefty play for me.

GL bro! Will probably join you on the Lobos.

:cheers:
 
RJ Esq said:
Good to know, Jpicks. Those both jumped out at me as well. I like those lines and may hit those today (first bet in two weeks, woohoo!).
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Hope you enjoyed the time of RJ. I see the NM line has already jumped, but like I said I figured I'd be getting a line of 14.

CHSGTMD said:
Good stuff JPicks, have followed you before, appreciate your insight, and these both look solid. Tailing you here on both.

Good job being + for the year
Click to expand...

Always enjoy giving back to the forum as I've learned 10 times what I've given back. GL to both of us.

Aztec4Life said:
Hey JPicks! I completely agree with your assessment of New Mexico. The Lobos have more talent at the skill position, and the better overall defense. If it drops below 10, I'm all over it.

Unfortunately, I was dead on about my Aztecs last week. That AFA rushing attack is a monster, and we didn't make it any easier on ourselves with those turnovers.

I lean to TCU this week...would probably be a hefty play for me.

GL bro! Will probably join you on the Lobos.
Click to expand...

Ya I was amazed at how well the AFA offense moved the ball. I just skimmed the box score and was blown away at how effective the Falcons were running the ball. I can't wait to see a line for them in their bowl game. I have a really good feeling that it might be soft. They're playing amazing right now.

As far as TCU/SDSU goes it's obviously going to be all about O'Connell vs the TCU secondary as the Aztecs have zero chance or running in that game. I just don't think that I can back TCU's offense on the road to cover more than 10 points. They'll certainly have the motivation to win for bowl hopes, but SDSU is/was (depending on reaction from AFA game) building on things. As funny as it may sound those Aztecs may actually look ahead a bit here to the BYU game as their bowl game. What a horrible spot that is going to be for BYU as well off the rivalry game.
 
vegaskyle said:
utes/cougars week. cant wait for your thoughts on that one.
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You'll get my thoughts on it all right. Not sure you should listen to them with this avator though. lol. It's honestly the one game in the world that I cannot giving you straight thoughts. This game is my #1 weakness and I'll fully admit it. I'll do my best though to give you some honest thoughts.

B.A.R. said:
You have had a great year of info man..we all appreciate it
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Can't say it hasn't been fun. Look forward to getting involved next year during the Spring games and hopefully have a better feel for the conference.
 
UTAH ML +175 (I'd play suggest an ATS play, but no reason to lie about what I'm playing)



4834823.jpg
 
Couple of thoughts here real quick and I'll do a full write-up on the game tonight hopefully.

Max Hall has a grade 1 seperation of his shoulder and won't practice until Wednesday at the earliest.

BYU is -7 while Utah is +10 in the TO department this year. Utah's special teams are far superior to those of BYU's. In a game that both teams are essentially even those two stats could be huge. If one is worried about home field here the visiting team has won 10 of the last 12 games in the rivalry SU. Utah is 6-1 SU over their last 7 in Provo.
 
Forgive me ahead of time for some of the worthless posts that I'll have this week. I just can't stop myself.

866vcp2.jpg
 
LMAO...love the avatar and pictures in the thread bro!

I officially joined you on the Lobos, and now leaning to Utah as well. The Utes have been on a tear since that shocking loss to UNLV.

:cheers:
 
Aztec4Life said:
LMAO...love the avatar and pictures in the thread bro!

I officially joined you on the Lobos, and now leaning to Utah as well. The Utes have been on a tear since that shocking loss to UNLV.

:cheers:
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Well you're not going to hear anything other than I love Utah this week. I do love the fact that they're giving up 80 yards on the ground a game in MWC play and they have the #3 pass defense in the country in efficiency rankings and #5 overall. They shouldn't have a problem getting pressure on Hall with their frount four as well. Main concern for Utah is the fact that they also are goign to have problems running the ball and Johnson has to play better than he did against NM. The secondary for BYU has only one starter left from Fall camp and he moved from corner to safety last week. Nobody in the conference has an adequate passing attack that can take advantage of this weakness though. If Johnson throws the ball well I'm very confident in this one. If he has an average game I think Utah wins a close one on a TO or special teams play. If he has a bad game I have no idea how Utah will score.
 
I decided to throw my hat in the CFB ring again after a couple weeks off. I'm putting a larger play on Utah and a smaller play on the ML. I likey. GL, bud...
 
JPicks - In terms of the TCU/SDSU game, I lean to the Horned Frogs (unfortunately). Again, I could never bet against my boys, but I will be surprised if my Aztecs put up more than 14, and equally surprised if TCU doesn't break 30.

By the way...GREAT call on Colorado State! Keep it up bro!

:cheers:
 
Tread carefully Couns. Homer play, but it is a fact that Utah has played the best D in the conference in the last 6 weeks or so. Expect a great game, but I really do think Utah wins this one. 4 of 5 in Provo.

Aztec--Think I already made a mistake not grabbing the 11. 13' is way to much for me to get involved now. I still like the over though. CSU did just enough to cash the ticket. Happy for them to get that last one if it was Lubbick's last game. GL tomorrow.
 
No matter what school that picture is depicting as it changes....thats priceless whenever I see it.

Nice start to the MWC week btw
 
JPicks....our alma mater motherfucking pissed.......motherfucking pissed that game away.

First off.....no Utah team should have a BYU graduate as its head coach. PERIOD.

Secondly.....hey Kyle fucking Whittingham. Are you saving your time outs for fucking Church Service tomorrow? IT'S 4TH AND GOD DAMNED 18.......CALL ONE OF YOUR 3 TIMEOUTS AND PREPARE YOUR TEAM AGAINST A QUARTERBACK WHO'S DONE NOTHING ON 3 CONSECUTIVE PLAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!

When a team is that unprepared for a 4th down play against your biggest rival in your biggest game of the season....I blame the head coach.

Kyle Whittingham is a nice guy. I've met him a few times and knew him a bit when I worked at the U's athletic facility when I was in school......but he's never going to have the hunger to want to crush BYU because he's a Cougar himself. This loss was a joke, an embarrassment, and a miserable failure for an average head coach.

I'm going to get drunk now.
 
And I didn't even mention the fucking fact how they rolled over for BYU to score a TD to blow the fucking cover.......sick....so sick.
 
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