Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Going to start out by using Joe P's cheat sheet as I think it's a brilliant setup. Well brilliant might be strong but I do like it.
1. Coaching
This one is a bit tough for me. I've really liked everything I've seen from Fairchild this year, but preparing for a bowl game is going to be foreign to him. Pat Hill would certainly seem to have an advantage but is he looking for another job or is he putting full effort into preparing for a 6-6 MWC team? I'd give the Bulldogs a slight advantage here and will put Hill's coaching indecision in the motivation category.
2. Motivation
Far and away the biggest mismatch of the game. This is CSU's first bowl game in a few years and while many will blow this off as the worst bowl game out there, and it probably is, CSU is going to be motivated to have a strong showing. Looking at FSU's season I can't say that there is anything to be impressed by. One team has a first year head coach who is trying to build a program back up and another team has a coach who is trying to leave for greener pastures.
The game itself represents a turnaround for the program in the first season under Fairchild. The six wins were the most ever posted by a first-year CSU coach, making him the first coach to have his debut season end at a bowl game.
That, said senior safety Mike Pagnotta, is a major accomplishment.
“It really is. Sometimes it gets overlooked, guys thinking it’s not a big-time bowl, but it’s huge for us, it’s huge for our program,” he said. “We have a chance to win as many games this year as we have the two previous years. It would be big for the seniors to go out with a winning record, it’s great for the recruiting coming in next year. Coach Fairchild and those guys have done an amazing job this year. I take my hat off to them and all the guys who have been playing this year. It’s been a complete team effort.”
Colorado State has not finished with a winning record since 2003, and win over the Bulldogs would break that streak.
Down the stretch, the players talked about getting to a bowl game. Now the feeling is they want to close out this first season in style.
CSU is close to selling out their allotment of tickets for the game while Fresno has sold only one thousand tickets. Pretty obvious that one program is really excited about having the opportunity to play a bowl game while the other is rumbling about firing their coach and could care less about the bowl game.
Huge CSU advantage.
3. Who has key seniors?
For CSU their key seniors are QB Bill Farris, RB Gartell Johnson, RB Kyle Bell, TE Kory Sperry, and 5 defensive starters. None of these players have been around for a winning season and they'll have this team fired up to do just that. It's amazing that this program, that has had a rich winning tradition, has a group of 5th year seniors that have failed to have a winning season.
“We got here, but we’ve got to finish 7-6,” quarterback Billy Farris said. “We got here a few years ago at 6-6, but we lost. Since I’ve been here, we haven’t had a winning record. I want to make a change, and I know the other guys do, too.”
"I'm very excited, It's a good way to go out in your senior year and get a winning record, which we haven't had since I've been here," said Horinek. (SR MLB)"Coach Fairchild is going to do some great things around here, and hopefully we can get him started."
As for Fresno State they are led by senior QB Tom Brandstater who is a three year starer, 4 SR offensive lineman and TE Bear Pascoe who has started in 38 games for the Bulldogs. Defense is young with two defensive starters being seniors.
Advantage CSU as more of their team leaders are SR's.
4. Out of conference schedule
CSU:
Lost at neutral site vs COL
Beat Sacramento State by 3 at home
Beat Houston by 3 at home
Blown out @CAL by 35
Fresno State:
Won @Rutgers by 17
Lost to Wisconsin by 3 @home
Won @Toledo by 1
Won @UCLA by 5
Huge advantage for Bulldogs as they played a tougher schedule and had a better showing. I give the Rams a small pass on this as Fairchild was getting his coaching feet wet and the Rams didn't play their best football until later in the year.
5. Conference strength
Big advantage for CSU as the MWC is superior to the WAC imo. Rams had to face three teams in the top #16 of the BCS and played two of them very well losing by 3 to TCU and 3 to BYU. Fresno played one top team in conference play in BSU and lost by 51.
6. Like matchups
Both teams are very similar in what they do. Run the ball and be physical. No spread offenses here and no 3-4 defenses. This is probably my weakest are when it comes to the MWC teams as I don't know what kind of offenses/defenses run outside of the league. Guess I'm not a big enough CFB fan. I would say that Wyoming is probably a decent comp for FSU in that they just come at you with the running game and a straight 4-3 defense, but the Bulldogs have a better passing attack and their defense isn't nearly as stout as the Cowboys. Again I don't have a great answer for this one.
7. Better pass defense & better rushing offense
CSU was ranked 83rd in the nation in pass defense and 78th in rushing offense while Fresno State was 50th in pass defense and 35th in rushing offense. Another stat that isn't included in this question that I love to use is rushing defense and both of these teams are horrible at stopping the run as the Rams are 99th in the country while Fresno St. is 104th. Keep in mind that Fresno State also got to face the 118th, 116th, and 115th ranked rushing offenses and they are still 104th. The way Nevada and Boise St. ran on the Bulldogs I'll be surprised as hell if the Rams don't average 5 yards a carry and clear 200 yards on the ground. Still advantage Fresno State based on the #'s.
Injuries:
Ryan Mathews is a question mark for the Bulldogs. Started the season as the starter at RB but has missed the last 4 games.
CSU will have all three of their safties healthy for the first time since week 2. Sr. Mike Pagnotta has missed the last 4 games while jr. Klint Kubiak has missed 6 of the Rams 12 games and both were slated to be the starters this year. Pagnotta is one of the best run stoppers on the team has been considerably. With both safties out the Rams were starting an extremely young group in the secondary.
They had rFr cornerbacks starting at safety @Wyo. So huge bump for them to get those guys back.
Final Thoughts:
After really diving in I think on paper this is a pretty even matchup. Should be a pretty physical game with both teams trying to establish the run. Being that the Rams have the better rush defense, especially with Pagnotta coming back, I see them winning that battle. I'm still amazed at the fact FSU has the 104th ranked rush defense after playing 3 of the 5 worst rushing teams in football. Really like the Rams in this one as they have the motivational edge and the rushing edge. Think they can control the ball and dominate this game. As for the total I'm of little help. Lean to the over more than likely, but think the side is to attractive to get involved with the total.
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