Must read for April bettors

frankiegotti

Power Boat Enthusiast
This is a thread i found from one of my friends that runs a service out in vegas. This is extremly useful if betting a lot in april.

This is a list of pitchers who are hot and cold in the month of april. (i know im one day late and many of you coulda really used this information yesterday but hey at least there's still 29 days left in april!!!)

Hot: (Aces typically have great records all around, so it is no surprise that the aces are on this list)

Josh Beckett 12-3
Eric Bedard 11-5
Mark Buerhle 11-4
Chris Capuano 12-4
Roy Halliday 13-3
Aaron Harang 12-5
Tim Hudson 11-5
Cliff Lee 7-5
Greg Maddux 11-4
Mike Maroth 11-3
Pedro Martinez 8-2
Mark Mulder 9-1
Curt Schilling 10-4
Brandon Webb 13-4
Dontrelle Willis 11-5 (those numbers were skewed since he now plays in the AL)

Cold (Fades):

David Bush 4-11
Matt Cain 2-8
Aaron Cook 3-8
Zack Greinke 1-9
Paul Maholm 3-7
Kevin Millwood 5-12
Oliver Perez 5-12
Andy Petite 4-12 (yanks in general are tough to play on april)
Ben Sheets 3-9
Josh Towers 3-11
Kip Wells 3-8
Barry Zito 3-12 (one day too late on this one)
 
good work FRANKIE !
can someone sticky this for the month ? it may help to decide a tough call
 
Nice numbers on Cain. I see LA winning again today, and will probably take the high price on Lowe...
 
Nice numbers on Cain. I see LA winning again today, and will probably take the high price on Lowe...


Be careful with these kind of lists. I only quoted you because of the mention of Cain.

2007 April Stats

1-1 35 IP 12 H 6 ER 2HR 1.54 ERA 0.83 WHIP .109 BAA



And just for the record Cain is 2-4 in April throughout his career. I only checked Cain's #'s of all the listed pitchers and I would be shocked if there weren't other errors as well.

A better list would be of pitchers than tend to do depart from their norm by alot during the early season. Nate Robertson is the first guy that comes to mind. He's always great in the beginning of the year and then just tails off as the season goes on.
 
A better list would be of pitchers than tend to do depart from their norm by alot during the early season. Nate Robertson is the first guy that comes to mind. He's always great in the beginning of the year and then just tails off as the season goes on.

Throw in Brad Penny
 
hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle -1.00 units
harang -1.10 units
hudson -1.65 units
webb +1.00 units

cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units
zito -1.00 units
sheets +1.05 units


dont think i missed any so far .

several things should be noted ... from the hot list harang , webb , and hudson all pitched decently ,,,, it should also be noted that harang and webb played one another so one of them had to be on the losing end of the bet. beuhrle got rocked and bedard labored.

from the cold list ....sheets and millwood pitched gems ... millwood in fact did not allow an earned run i dont think. zito got hit a bit.


will keep tracking the rest of april as best i can. if i miss anything feel free to point it out.
 
should probably have the "fade" numbers next to cold list pitchers instead of what you would make by betting on them but you get the idea and can figure that out.
 
update after monday. bolded the pitcher(s) involved

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hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle -1.00 units
harang -1.10 units
hudson -1.65 units
webb +1.00 units
halladay -1.00 units
martinez -2.20 units

cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units
zito -1.00 units
sheets +1.05 units
cain -1.00 units
wells -1.00 units

ok from the hot list today ,,,, pedro got lit up early and often and is now injured and halladay pitched a good game in defeat. if you bet the hot list players today you went 0-2 and dropped about 3.20 units

ok from the cold list today ... cain pitched 5.2 innings and allowed no runs and kip wells pitched 5.1 innings and allowed just one run. so they pitched awesome. however , if you bet on the cold list pitchers today you still would have gone 0-2 losing 2.10 units.
 
ok here is the update after the april 2 games. updated pitchers bolded.


hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle -1.00 units
harang -1.10 units
hudson -1.65 units
webb +1.00 units
halladay -1.00 units
martinez -2.20 units

cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units
zito -1.00 units
sheets +1.05 units
cain -1.00 units
wells -1.00 units
perez +1.00 units
cook -1.00 units


ok no one from the hot list in post 1 pitched today. from the cold list oliver perez pitched 6 strong innings striking out 8 walking just 1 and failing to give up a run in a shutout win for the mets. Cook was tagged a bit by the cards, he went 6 innings , gave up 6 hits and 4 er while picking up the loss. so if you bet perez and cook today it would have been a wash as perez won as a favorite for one unit and cook lost as a dog for 1 unit.
 
no problem, glad to be of help.



On a sidenote two of the cold pitchers are pitching today.

Greinke, which presents a solid spot for detroit only because detroit lost their last two at home against this KC team. But the split numbers are good for Greinke against detroit. Opinions?

D. Bush is pitching today as well. Not much of an opinino on this game.
 
night of april 3 , thurs update. pitchers who were active today and updated are bolded.


hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle -1.00 units
harang -1.10 units
hudson -1.65 units
webb +1.00 units
halladay -1.00 units
martinez -2.20 units


cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units
zito -1.00 units
sheets +1.05 units
cain -1.00 units
wells -1.00 units
perez +1.00 units
cook -1.00 units
Bush -1.00 units
Greinke +1.60 units

ok from the hot list there were no active pitchers. From the cold list bush got hit by the cubs in defeat and greinke ptched a great game for the royals to beat a struggling tigers team. had you bet on both cold list pitchers today you would have gone 1-1 and netted a 0.60 unit profit.
 
friday april 4 update ... no one on eother list pitched today.

saturday the fifth the following pitch ....

hot list harang webb and willis for sure, possibly hudson
cold list maholm , millwood , pettite
 
saturday april 5th update. please remember that i am tracking the cold list players by what would occur if you bet ON them and not FADE them. This is confusing some folks so just want to be clear. here is what happened today. For those pitchers who have pitched more than one game the teams record when the pitcher started is in parentheses.

hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle -1.00 units
harang -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
hudson -0.65 units ( 1-1 )
webb +2.00 units ( 2-0 )
halladay -1.00 units
dontrelle willis -1.75
martinez -2.20 units


cold list so far

millwood -2.00 units ( 0-2 )
zito -1.00 units
sheets +1.05 units
cain -1.00 units
wells -1.00 units
perez +1.00 units
cook -1.00 units
Bush -1.00 units
Greinke +1.60 units
maholm -1.00 units
pettite -2.50 units

great day for the list today. had you bet on all the pitchers from the hot list today you would have gone 3-1 for a profit of 1.25 units. If you had bet on all the starters today on the cold list today you would have gone 0-3 for a loss of 4.50 units !!! So the list today would have generated huge profit.

notes from the hot list .. harang webb and hudson all pitched well. willis pitched 5 innings gave up just 1 hit but had no control , walking 7 and giving up 3 er.

notes from the cold list. millwood is now 0-2 after two starts but he has pitched maginificently in both outings. his era sits at 1.29 or something like that right now.

lots of pitchers on the lists are in action tomorrow.
 
ok sunday night update. hot lists finished 3-1 plus 3.50 units. the cold list pitchers went 1-1 breaking even.


hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
hudson -0.65 units ( 1-1 )
webb +2.00 units ( 2-0 )
halladay EVEN ( 1-1 )
dontrelle willis -1.75
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -1.10 units
cliff lee +1.15 units


cold list so far

millwood -2.00 units ( 0-2 )
zito -2.00 units ( 0 -2 )
sheets +2.05 units ( 2-0 )
cain -1.00 units
wells -1.00 units
perez +1.00 units
cook -1.00 units
Bush -1.00 units
Greinke +1.60 units
maholm -1.00 units
pettite -2.50 units

hot list notes
Beckett and halladay were matched against one another so one of those two teams would have to lose. halladay pitched well for the sexond time this april. cliff lee was also impressive in his first start.

cold list notes

again , sheets was matched up against zito so one of the two teams had to lose.

hot list pitchers who see action monday------ greg maddux
cold list pitchers who see action monday------ matt cain
note they play against one another.
 
Loving the list

hot list so far... buehrle -1.00 units... will keep tracking the rest of april as best i can. if i miss anything feel free to point it out.[/quote said:
Detroit seemed very due tonight against the White Sox. Then I saw the list.
Never loved Mark Buehrle but if he pitches well in April then I can be flexible. He threw very well,the Sox won easily and the list is my new bible. At least for April. Thanks :cheers:
 
still cant figure out how matt cain makes a bad pitching list for april, unless the list is based solely on their record and not performance. will do my best to keep this updated.
 
thanks vegaskyle....The SF/SD matchup tonight baffles me to say the least. I really want to go with SD but the books made the line this low for a reason.
 
Love the list

Using the April list I see Maddox and San Diego having an easy time with Cain and San Francisco today. The list makes it pretty clear who is hot and who is not and for now I believe in it!!
:cheers:
 
hot list so far

bedard +1.00 units
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
hudson -0.65 units ( 1-1 )
webb +2.00 units ( 2-0 )
halladay EVEN ( 1-1 )
dontrelle willis -1.75
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -1.10 units
cliff lee +1.15 units
maddux -0.40 units (1-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.00 units ( 0-2 )
zito -2.00 units ( 0 -2 )
sheets +2.05 units ( 2-0 )
cain -2.05 units ( 0 -2 )
wells -1.00 units
perez +1.00 units
cook -1.00 units
Bush -1.00 units
Greinke +1.60 units
maholm -1.00 units
pettite -2.50 units


maddux pithced magnificently ( how many times are we going to say that after a guy faces the giants this year ? ) and cain sturggled in their matchup yesterday. list held true. somewhere along the way we missed the maddux loss to houston.... corrected it. please point out errors i make like that.

from the hot list -- bedard pitches tues

from the cold list -- bush and oliver perez pitch tues.
 
bedard pitches today and he is from the hot list if anyone is following. But tread lightly as he was bothered by an injury the start before this one.
 
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hot list so far

bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
hudson -0.65 units ( 1-1 )
webb +2.00 units ( 2-0 )
halladay EVEN ( 1-1 )
dontrelle willis -1.75
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -1.10 units
cliff lee +1.15 units
maddux -0.40 units (1-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.00 units ( 0-2 )
zito -2.00 units ( 0 -2 )
sheets +2.05 units ( 2-0 )
cain -2.05 units ( 0 -2 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -0.45 units ( 1-1 )
cook -1.00 units
Bush -1.00 units
Greinke +1.60 units
maholm -1.00 units
pettite -2.50 units

ok from the hot list tuesday bedard pitched average at best but picked up the victory ( thanks goodness since i bet him ).

ok from the cold list perez lost as a hefty favorite against the phillies though he pitched a'ight.

so had you bet bedard from the hot list you would have profited a unit and had you bet perez from the cold list you would have lost 1.45 units.

i believe for wednesday that only david bush and zach greinke pitch from the cold list and the hot list has the day off.
 
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
hudson -0.65 units ( 1-1 )
webb +2.00 units ( 2-0 )
halladay EVEN ( 1-1 )
dontrelle willis -1.75
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -1.10 units
cliff lee +1.15 units
maddux -0.40 units (1-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.00 units ( 0-2 )
zito -2.00 units ( 0 -2 )
sheets +2.05 units ( 2-0 )
cain -2.05 units ( 0 -2 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -0.45 units ( 1-1 )
cook -1.00 units
Bush -2.55 units (0-2)
Greinke +1.60 units (2-0 )

maholm -1.00 units
pettite -2.50 units

hot list -no action
cold list - bush got hammered by the reds in defeat, greinke actually won but since we need to list pitchers ( there was a late scratch of his opponent rendering listed pitcher tickeys no action ) if using the list i am not counting the game as far as units is concerned. i will reflect the fact that they won in his record though.

hot list today --- harang at brewers ( villanueva )
cold list today -- millwood home to orioles ( trachsel )
 
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bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang +0.90 units ( 2-1 )
hudson -0.65 units ( 1-1 )
webb +2.00 units ( 2-0 )
halladay EVEN ( 1-1 )
dontrelle willis -1.75
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -1.10 units
cliff lee +1.15 units
maddux -0.40 units (1-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
zito -2.00 units ( 0 -2 )
sheets +2.05 units ( 2-0 )
cain -2.05 units ( 0 -2 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -0.45 units ( 1-1 )
cook -1.00 units
Bush -2.55 units (0-2)
Greinke +1.60 units (2-0 )
maholm -1.00 units
pettite -2.50 units

Hot list -- harang pitched a gem at the brewers pickign up a win
cold list --millwood continued his incredible april and actually got a win for his efforts this time.

so had you bet accordingly from the list you would have broken even today harang+100 , millwood won as big favorite. betting the hot list pitcher today you won 1.00 units , betting the cold list pitcher today you won 1.00 units.

friday list pitchers in action ....
hot list ........hudson , webb and willis all are scheduled to pitch
cold list ........zito and maholm are scheduled to pitch
 
friday night update

hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang +0.90 units ( 2-1 )
hudson +0.35 units ( 2-1 )
webb +3.00 units ( 3-0 )

halladay EVEN ( 1-1 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -1.10 units
cliff lee +1.15 units
maddux -0.40 units (1-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
zito -3.00 units ( 0 -3 )
sheets +2.05 units ( 2-0 )
cain -2.05 units ( 0 -2 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -0.45 units ( 1-1 )
cook -1.00 units
Bush -2.55 units (0-2)
Greinke +1.60 units (2-0 )
maholm EVEN ( 1-1 )
pettite -1.50 units ( 1-1 )

fromthe hot list -- webb didnt have one of his better starts but he won. hudson pitched great for third straight time. willis hurt himself in top of first and his team went on to win.

from the cold list --zito got rocked again by the cards , maholm pitched a scoreless gem vs the reds.

so had you bet on the pitchers on the hot list you would have gone 3-0 plus 3,10 units.

had you bet on the pitchers on the cold list you would have gone 1-1 and broke even.
tommorows action

hot list --beckett hosts the yanks , halladay travels to texas
cold list --ben sheets is at the mets, matt cain hosts the cards
 
There is one cold list pitcher that i wouldn't touch right now with a 10 foot pole and that is Zach Greinke from Kansas City because it looks like he is in his stride right now.
 
hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang +0.90 units ( 2-1 )
hudson +0.35 units ( 2-1 )
webb +3.00 units ( 3-0 )
halladay +1.00 units ( 2-1 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +1.15 units
maddux -0.40 units (1-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
zito -3.00 units ( 0 -3 )
sheets +3.25 units ( 3-0 )
cain -3.20 units ( 0 -3 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -0.45 units ( 1-1 )
cook -1.00 units
Bush -2.55 units (0-2)
Greinke +1.60 units (2-0 )
maholm EVEN ( 1-1 )
pettite -1.50 units ( 1-1 )

its updated.

hot list tomorrow .....bedard, lee and maddux go
cold list tomorrow ....perez and cook go.
 
hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle + 0.55 units ( 1 -1 )
harang +0.90 units ( 2-1 )
hudson +0.35 units ( 2-1 )
webb +3.00 units ( 3-0 )
halladay +1.00 units ( 2-1 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +2.15 units ( 2-0 )
maddux +0.80 units (2-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
zito -3.00 units ( 0 -3 )
sheets +3.25 units ( 3-0 )
cain -3.20 units ( 0 -3 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -1.85 units ( 1-1 )
cook +0.10 units ( 1-1 )
Bush -2.55 units (0-2)
Greinke +1.60 units (2-0 )
maholm EVEN ( 1-1 )
pettite -1.50 units ( 1-1 )

from the hot list ..... maddux pitched a shutout for a win , and lee pitched maginificently as well posting a win. 2-0 for the hot list guys

cold list --perez got rocked by the phillies in defeat and cook pitched decently in victory. so 1-1 for the cold list guys

todays list pitchers in action

hot list -- buehrle goes against the A's
cold list --greinke goes for the royals

think that is it anyways. gl gang.
 
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hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle -0.95 units ( 1 -2 )
harang +0.90 units ( 2-1 )
hudson +0.35 units ( 2-1 )
webb +3.00 units ( 3-0 )
halladay +1.00 units ( 2-1 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +2.15 units ( 2-0 )
maddux +0.80 units (2-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
zito -3.00 units ( 0 -3 )
sheets +3.25 units ( 3-0 )
cain -3.20 units ( 0 -3 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -1.85 units ( 1-1 )
cook +0.10 units ( 1-1 )
Bush -2.55 units (0-2)
Greinke +3.65 units (3-0 )
maholm EVEN ( 1-1 )
pettite -1.50 units ( 1-1 )

hot list -- buehrle pitched a great game but lost 2-1
cold list --greinke has nasty stuff again and gave up only 1 in victory

tomorrow listpitchers in action

hot list -- harang takes on the cubs
cold list -- millwood , pettite and bush all go tomorrow i think.
 
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hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle -0.95 units ( 1 -2 )
harang -0.10 units ( 2-2 )
hudson +0.35 units ( 2-1 )
webb +3.00 units ( 3-0 )
halladay +1.00 units ( 2-1 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +2.15 units ( 2-0 )
maddux +0.80 units (2-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.15 units ( 1-3 )
zito -3.00 units ( 0 -3 )
sheets +3.25 units ( 3-0 )
cain -3.20 units ( 0 -3 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -1.85 units ( 1-1 )
cook +0.10 units ( 1-1 )
Bush -3.55 units (0-3)
Greinke +3.65 units (3-0 )
maholm EVEN ( 1-1 )
pettite -0.50 units ( 2-1 )

Hot list -- harang gave up a few homers as the wind was blowing out in wrigley today. the reds lost

cold list -- millwood had his worst start of the year getting banged up in a day game by the angels. Bush pitched decent but lost for the brewcrew. pettite pitched well and the yankess won.

for tomorrow ......

hot list -- hudson is heavy chalk on road at marlins, webb is heavy chalk on road at giants.

cold list -- zito is a big road dog to Webb listed above. i think maholm gets the start for pitt tomorrow at the dodgers.

if i have the time i will get pitcher stats next to their names for the month within the next few days. no guarnatees but ill try.
 
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hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle -0.95 units ( 1 -2 )
harang -0.10 units ( 2-2 )
hudson -1.25 units ( 2-2 )
webb +4.00 units ( 4-0 )
halladay -0.90 units ( 2-2 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +2.15 units ( 2-0 )
maddux +0.80 units (2-1 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.15 units ( 1-3 )
zito -4.00 units ( 0 -4 )
sheets +3.25 units ( 3-0 )
cain -3.20 units ( 0 -3 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -1.85 units ( 1-1 )
cook +0.10 units ( 1-1 )
Bush -3.55 units (0-3)
Greinke +3.65 units (3-0 )
maholm -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
pettite -0.50 units ( 2-1 )

ok two days worth of stuff.

hot list -- halladay pitched average in a huge home chalk spot and lost. webb pitched a gem vs cold list starter zito for a win , hudson lost as hevy road chalk.

cold list --zito was outdeuled by hot lister webb , maholm lost at dodgers.

todays list pitchers in action

hot list - maddux travels to zona.....cliff lee starts at minny
cold list - matt cain is at stlouis , ben sheets is at reds,

think thats it .. good luck
 
hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle -0.95 units ( 1 -2 )
harang -0.10 units ( 2-2 )
hudson -1.25 units ( 2-2 )
webb +4.00 units ( 4-0 )
halladay -0.90 units ( 2-2 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +3.15 units ( 3-0 )
maddux -0.20 units (2-2 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.15 units ( 1-3 )
zito -4.00 units ( 0 -4 )
sheets +4.25 units ( 4-0 )
cain -4.20 units ( 0 -4 )

wells -1.00 units
perez -1.85 units ( 1-1 )
cook +0.10 units ( 1-1 )
Bush -3.55 units (0-3)
Greinke +3.65 units (3-0 )
maholm -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
pettite -0.50 units ( 2-1 )

Had you bet on the hot list today you would have broken even as cliff lee pitched 8 innings of two hit ball to win again and maddux got rocked in the top of the first in defeat to the dbacks as a pretty big dog.

Had you bet on the cold list today you also would have broken even as ben sheets pitched beautifully before leaving with an arm problem as a small road favorite and matt cain got bitch slapped in stlouis.

list pitchers playing tomorrow......

hot list -- beuhrle is in tampa
cold list --greinke is in oaltown

gl gang
 
hot list
bedard +2.00 units (2-0 )
buehrle -2.15 units ( 1 -3 )
harang -0.10 units ( 2-2 )
hudson -1.25 units ( 2-2 )
webb +4.00 units ( 4-0 )
halladay -0.90 units ( 2-2 )
dontrelle willis -0.65 ( 1-1 )
martinez -2.20 units
beckett -0.10 units ( 1-1 )
cliff lee +3.15 units ( 3-0 )
maddux -0.20 units (2-2 )


cold list so far

millwood -2.15 units ( 1-3 )
zito -4.00 units ( 0 -4 )
sheets +4.25 units ( 4-0 )
cain -4.20 units ( 0 -4 )
wells -1.00 units
perez -0.75 units ( 2-2 )
cook +0.10 units ( 1-1 )
Bush -3.55 units (0-3)
Greinke +2.55 units (3-1 )
maholm -1.00 units ( 1-2 )
pettite -0.50 units ( 2-1 )

ok buehrle pitched from the hot list and got hit around a bit by tampa in a loss. i forgot to mention that perez was pitching today. he pitched well and won. Greinke pitched decent but bullpen blew it for the royals in oakland.

tomorrow list pitchers in action

hot list ---harang host the brewcrew
cold list---millwood is in fenway , pettite in baltimore.
 
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