Motor City Bowl discussion thread- FAU vs C. Michigan

[nawlins51]

Played the under 70. I don't see this game past 55 total points. Maybe I am wrong but just don't see it. The line opened at 61.It is now at 70. To me the value is on the under play or nothing. In fact I have this game CMU 31-24 for a total of 55.We shall see fellas. GL tonight.

 

[tee*dub]

Played the under 70. I don't see this game past 55 total points. Maybe I am wrong but just don't see it. The line opened at 61.It is now at 70. To me the value is on the under play or nothing. In fact I have this game CMU 31-24 for a total of 55.We shall see fellas. GL tonight.

Yep, figured some of the respected totals players would start jumping this under... right Play Nawlins IMO.. GL... waiting.. will we see 71 or 72?

 

[SportsNut]

Dang Nut...I couldn't disagree more.

For one, I was referring more to Temple's outstanding defense, not their offense. They had one of the best defenses in the MAC this year. So regardless of whether or not DiMichelle was actually in the lineup, I'm still impressed.

And you conveniently throw out the turnovers by FAU as a factor in their game against Minnesota...that's Rusty Smith MO...he turns the ball over at the worst possible times (recall the game on national TV against Middle Tennessee St).

I don't care that FAU wentg 5-1 in their last six games against opponents with a combined record of 24-48. My point is, CMU is better than ALL of those teams in that stretch (siginificantly so on offense).

And guess what? All those turnovers that you point out in the game against Texas? Again...that's Rusty Smith's MO...the kid loves turning the ball over. LeFevour is ten times smarter with the football, IMO.

Funny you point out the NIU game...I was going to get into that last post, but had a feeling you would bring it into the mix at some point. First of all, I watched the game from start to finish...CMU DOMINATED the 1st Half, without question. The ONLY way NIU was able to get back into the game was the horrendous fog that rolled into the stadium, making it difficult to locate the ball as NIU successfully attempted TWO onside kicks to get back into the game (one of those to start the 2nd Half). CMU only had 3-4 posessions in the entire 2nd Half, and scored on two of them, if I recall correctly. If not for those FLUKE onside kick recoveries, or the unreal fog, that comeback attempt never comes close.

I couldn't disagree more about your comparison to Buffalo and FAU. For one, Buffalo has a QB who's EXTREMELY accurate and smart with the football. (What's Smith's completion %...like 50?!). Compare TD/INT ratios and try not to laugh. The Buffalo Defense also creates WAY more turnovers than FAU's. Most of those wins by Buffalo came on the road...FAU's recent win streak primarily happened at home.

Anyhow, I'm done here. I expect another Nut rant, but, it's all in the spirit of discussion. I couldn't agree more with ETG's outlook on the game.

GL to all CMU backers!

:cheers:

Temple's outstanding defense ? We know thats more hype then reality. I hate stats for defenses and offenses but #83 is outstanding ? The one that choked vs Navy in the 4th quarter allowing 33 pts with ot , the one that allowed 41 @ Kent or the one that allowed 52 at home to Estern Michigan ...outstanding ?? really ? Maybe Western Kentucky's equivalent but outstanding ??

How bout we interject some commonsense for a second and it could be wrong at the end of the day . Your going to fault Rusty Smith for turnovers @ Texas and @ Minnesota in the season's 1st 3 weeks but that outweighs the last 3 weeks for CMU? Okay the so the fogged rolled in and I bet NIU that day . So what ? The were outscored 27-7 in the 2nd H and the TD was 9 minutes of the 3rd Q which they allowed 24 straight after that ? The games @ Toledo and @ Indiana before that meant what then ?

I cant believe you would expect a mid major to have much of a chance in the beginning of the season vs a major program. Would need an experienced mid major vs a graduating and retooling major program. So I guess you believe the CMU defense can force errors and mistakes just like the Minny and Texas teams do at home.? Didnt know CMU defensive players had the talent of Big Ten and Big 12 athletes ..



So if Temple is a good defense then I wonder what Troy is , Ark State or Mid Tenn State?

You keep harping on Smith's INTs but again lets look closely. LAst 6 games he has 17 Tds to 5 INTs .....whats the excuse now? Yes , he did have 9 Ints and only 2 Tds vs Troy , @ MidTenn State , @ Minnesota , @ Texas. Whats the point ? We know he played bad , we know the team played , we know there were rumblings he was hurt , we know that the WRs were called out for dropping passes ...is every INT his fault and the fact that 3 of the 4 games were away not mean anything ? Oh last 6 games 116/200 thats 58% and he is not throwing dump passes. See you forget to mention that he was 8/34 in a MONSOON @ Mich State to water down his completion ratio. Mixed in with a 32/65 @ Texas and @ Minnesota that 40/99 in 25% of his games can kill his stats ....

Rusty Smith has looked bad at times but early on nothing was going right , he may have been hurt , his WRs were dropping balls , the schedule was brutal and weather didnt help at all @ Mich State or even at home vs Troy when the field was shitty .

Bottomline is in my opinion your making way to much of what Smith has done wrong and not looking at what factored into it . What do you think was tougher playing @ Minnesota or @ Purdue ? When you beat Minnesota last season or you lost to Purdue twice the year before . Which home team you think emphasized that game more ? What was tougher opening up @ Texas and making them angry by talking smack or 2nd game of the year @ Georgia ? Playing your 1st home conference game vs the best in your conference or having to play them in your last home game of the year ?

I simply dont believe CMU is not as good as some make them out to be which is not a reflection of DanLeFevour and clearly think Smith progressed as the season went on and that had a domino effect .

I make CMU -3 vs FAU on a true neutral field . At Ford could see -4.5 but think a TD is just to many in a game they could lose SU or win in the closing moments .....

I do think you are overlooking and generalizing alot of things but thats why we are indivuals ..:shake::cheers:

 

[nawlins51]

Yep, figured some of the respected totals players would start jumping this under... right Play Nawlins IMO.. GL... waiting.. will we see 71 or 72?

I pm you back but for the rest I think it may go up just a little more but anticipate a drop in the line.I may be wrong but I took it at 70.Don't think I need it but the value is just too much for me to pass up with a 9 point climb in the line. This is just a theory but I have seen it. Sharps get a line moving one way and double up on the opposite side.

Then again these teams can score some points.But FAU has not been over 70 but once this season.That was against FIU in OT and a 56 point 4th quarter. Let me say FLUKE.

 

[SportsNut]

I pm you back but for the rest I think it may go up just a little more but anticipate a drop in the line.I may be wrong but I took it at 70.Don't think I need it but the value is just too much for me to pass up with a 9 point climb in the line. This is just a theory but I have seen it. Sharps get a line moving one way and double up on the opposite side.

Then again these teams can score some points.But FAU has not been over 70 but once this season.That was against FIU in OT and a 56 point 4th quarter. Let me say FLUKE.

To add to that it was a FLUKE 28-28 4th Quarter . Lets get real 8 TDs in a quarter ? Why did it happen because twice FAU rallied from 14 pt defecits in that quarter as they knew it was a MUST win for the postseason possibility ...Even more is how old is HS now ? He said he never ever expected to see a 50-50 regulation game in his lifetime !

Its just one of those things like the Dallas and Raven game few weeks when the game is low scoring and suddenly there is a TD every minute and 17 pts becomes 60.....for FAU 50 pts became a 100 in that game......Same thing happened with CMU last game ..

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Havent had a Bowl thread yet and posted my plays in the ingames or VK's thread to date. Probably the most extensive discussion I have had about any Bowl game ...so take it FWIW did I jinx myself ?? Probably but I guess I 'll post my final plays in here today .....

GL all:cheers:

 

[broadwayjoe]

nut, i agree that smith looked hurt in the first part of the season, and i think the play-calling also suffered because of it.

i think it was a combination of that and the strength of the passing defenses that he faced in the first part of the season. this, by the way, is leaps and bounds the worst passing defense he will have faced this year, and probably in his entire career.

i think it's tough to say that INTs are his MO when you look at the stats not only in the last 6 games, but also last year's numbers where it would be hard to argue that he was a very good qb.

3600 yards, 32 tds, 9 picks and a 141 qb rating.

if he wasn't hurt at the beginning of the season, he was in a funk for whatever reason. i think there's more evidence out there that suggests that the games he didn't perform well were not the norm for him, and that over the course of the last 6 games he has returned to form

 

[nawlins51]

To add to that it was a FLUKE 28-28 4th Quarter . Lets get real 8 TDs in a quarter ? Why did it happen because twice FAU rallied from 14 pt defecits in that quarter as they knew it was a MUST win for the postseason possibility ...Even more is how old is HS now ? He said he never ever expected to see a 50-50 regulation game in his lifetime !

Its just one of those things like the Dallas and Raven game few weeks when the game is low scoring and suddenly there is a TD every minute and 17 pts becomes 60.....for FAU 50 pts became a 100 in that game......Same thing happened with CMU last game ..

:cheers:

No doubt it happens Nut. And that Dallas/Raven game is a good example. I expect the early jitters to favor both defenses in this one.Then they will settle in. Now will there be alot of scoring...yep but not 70 points. But might be putting my foot in my mouth like Nut said. Just like I stated earlier, the under has to much value to pass up on.

 

[SportsNut]

My bowl season in a NUT shell.....

Wake Forest -2.5 {Level2}
2ndH WF -3 {Level3}
2nd H Over 23 WF {Level1}

Col State +3.5 -120{Level3}
2nd H Col St +0.5 {Level2}
2nd H Over 31 {Level1}
Over 61 Col State {Level2} (forgot to post though before kick mentioned at halftime)

Memphis +11.5 {Level1}
Memphis +11-120 {Level1}
2ndH Memphis +3.5 {Level1}
Under 28 1st H {level1}
Under 57 {Level2}
2nd H Under 28 {Level1}

Zona -2.5-120 {Level3}
1stH Zona -2.5 -105{Level3}
1st H Under 31 {Level1}
3rdQ Zona -0.5 {Level1}
2nd H hedge BYU +0.5 {Level1} Hedge to full game play
(all 12/20 games were in the ingame and some in VKs thread)

1st H So Miss +3 -115 {Level2}
So Miss +4.5 {Level1}
Under 55 {Level2}
Teaser : So Miss and Under {Level1}
2nd H So Miss +3 {Level3}
2nd H Under 28-120 {Level1}
2nd H Parlay SMiss and Und {level1}essentially pays a Level2 play
(all in Kyle's thread)

Notre Dame ML -120{Level3}
Notre Dame ML -110{Level3}
(in Kyle's thread but only listed as POUNDED Notre Dame)

So 6 losses : one because OT was forced , one was only a hedge on a 3 unit play and 4 small ones in the Memphis game. Forgot to play the TCU game and like everyone was interested in TCU but the Under more interesting to me . Still no plays on that game . Naturally I mentioned ND as a pound play but one couldnt guess I double maxed it either and the Col State game total slipped by mind when I was posting that day and to show how much I liked it even play the 2nd H over after the 1st H was high scoring ...

It's gone good and I have been scattered with my plays just riding my instincts to what lines seemed off or situations discounted . Probably jinxed my ass here but its the only debate I have had time for .


Today :
FAU +7.5 -116 avg price for the hook buy {Level3}
1st H FAU +4 +100 {Level1}


Maybe small stab at the +240 ML but doubt its a Level 1 play and interested in the UNDER but rather hope the 1st H is an extreme which I can go opposite on the 2nd Half.....

The total is going to be dependent on the flow of the game . If teams miss a few opps for TDs and settle for FGs , punts or TOs it could suck the life out of the game but of they maxiize the offenses this could be high 70's easily which is why I passed on the game total .

CMU has a very solid QB and is a dangerous team but their week to week play just shows me a team who hasnt clicked on all cylinders in 1 game for 4 quarters . Which is why I think the offense had 33 or less in 67% of their games (8 of 12 games). Besides Temple CMU allowed less then 28 pts twice at 23 and 25 so hard to think FAU doesnt get 24 + points here ....when a team is favored by 7 pts its more about them then the other team IMO...they have to do enough to cover a TD and CMU just is always involved in close games ...

Good Luck all ! It's 1 game win or lose...............:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

nut, i agree that smith looked hurt in the first part of the season, and i think the play-calling also suffered because of it.

i think it was a combination of that and the strength of the passing defenses that he faced in the first part of the season. this, by the way, is leaps and bounds the worst passing defense he will have faced this year, and probably in his entire career.

i think it's tough to say that INTs are his MO when you look at the stats not only in the last 6 games, but also last year's numbers where it would be hard to argue that he was a very good qb.

3600 yards, 32 tds, 9 picks and a 141 qb rating.

if he wasn't hurt at the beginning of the season, he was in a funk for whatever reason. i think there's more evidence out there that suggests that the games he didn't perform well were not the norm for him, and that over the course of the last 6 games he has returned to form

I didnt even want to get into last year and tried to focus on why the stats this year could be misleading . Looking at the way you put it though it kinda does hammer the point I was trying to make home .

Well put ....:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Well lets remember that there were major team chemistry issues at the start of the season ... i don't follow the team close enough to know if those were fixed but based on the play the second half of the year i would think so. Seeing Rusty Smith argue with receivers and linemen was the norm at the start of the year. I am sure a lot of you remember that from some of their early televised games.

 

[M.W.]

i think it's tough to say that INTs are his MO when you look at the stats not only in the last 6 games, but also last year's numbers where it would be hard to argue that he was a very good qb.

3600 yards, 32 tds, 9 picks and a 141 qb rating.

if he wasn't hurt at the beginning of the season, he was in a funk for whatever reason. i think there's more evidence out there that suggests that the games he didn't perform well were not the norm for him, and that over the course of the last 6 games he has returned to form

Now you're talking. Sounds a lot like Cullen Harper at Clemson, whose shoulder was hurt worse than people realized for the first 7 or 8 games.

Good stuff from you, too, Sportsnut.

One more thing -- I just fired in a 1Q play on FAU because Schnellie does seem to do well with extra time to prep. Won the 1Q in last year's bowl 17-7. Played Texas tough in the 1Q of this year's opener. Nice covers against KU and Hawaii in the '05 and '04 openers and a very solid win and cover vs. MTSU in last year's opener.

Good luck.

 

[SportsNut]

Now you're talking. Sounds a lot like Cullen Harper at Clemson, whose shoulder was hurt worse than people realized for the first 7 or 8 games.

Good stuff from you, too, Sportsnut.

One more thing -- I just fired in a 1Q play on FAU because Schnellie does seem to do well with extra time to prep. Won the 1Q in last year's bowl 17-7. Played Texas tough in the 1Q of this year's opener. Nice covers against KU and Hawaii in the '05 and '04 openers and a very solid win and cover vs. MTSU in last year's opener.

Good luck.

Great call on the 1st Quarter ...:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Well lets remember that there were major team chemistry issues at the start of the season ... i don't follow the team close enough to know if those were fixed but based on the play the second half of the year i would think so. Seeing Rusty Smith argue with receivers and linemen was the norm at the start of the year. I am sure a lot of you remember that from some of their early televised games.

I was thinking about that as well from the Troy game but seeing as they were successful wit Rusty Smith last season as QB just dismissed it . TO hates every QB he plays with and maybe they hate Rusty but didnt see it as angle when as you mentioned team rallied to get to this point:shake:Good reminder though

 

[SportsNut]

2nd Half :

FAU +4.5 {Level1}
Over 34 {Level1}
Parlayed them{Level1}

GL ....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Fuck me for being a pussy and not playing the under !! At least FAU never trailed by a TD ..

3 more tmrw....already played WVU ML......nothing else .....:shake:

 

[pags11]

nice job tonight sportsnut...

 

[Aztec4Life]

Nice call Nut & everyone else who played FAU.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Pags :shake:

Thanks Aztec:shake:

 

[bull]

Kicking myself for not sticking to my guns and playing FAU.
Not a totals guy but I also find that when the emphasis is on the over and the line moves that way, it seems the Under usually happens . ? .
No data on this. Just a strong feeling.

Great bet Sportsnut.:smiley_abcs: