Moneyline Dog Discussion for week 4 schrute/cpicker style

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
I believe it was/is Matador who is the expert on playing these so I would love for him to chime in here if he gets a chance. IMO this is the first week where there are a plethora of ML dogs with a decent chance to win SU. The first three weeks are usually tough on ML dogs b/c of all the spreads of > 20. However now we get into rivalries and sandwich games. I believe many ML dogs will hit over the next 10 weeks. Here are the ones I am considering. Will not even come close to playing them all but would love some thoughts.

Louisville +160--tough trip for Kansas State and I really don't think anyone knows what they are made of yet. Louisville has had 2 weeks to prepare and a ton of pressure on this team to win this game IMO.

Colorado +125--Bill Stewart has abandoned zone blocking and managed to lead Pat White, Noel Devine and 5 returning OL starters to 3 points against ECU. I certainly have to lean to the Buffs here based on that, the fact that Hawkins is a solid coach and that WVU is making a nasty midweek trip.

Central Florida +390--doubt I will play this one but O'Leary is a good coach catching nearly 4:1 on the road against a team they can run with. It might be worth a shot

Vandy +225--they have lock down DBs and a mobile QB who can make plays. I also believe they have the better coach in this matchup though I'm sure many would dispute that

Auburn +115--incredibly defense. Incredibly shitty offense. SEC home dog in a game that will come down to late in the 4th quarter. Whoever gets the ball last loses

Colorado State +225--they are certainly awful but Houston just lost to Air Force at home. Don't really know much else about this matchup

Va Tech +115--can they really be as bad as they've looked the past 2 weeks? Could this game be the changing of the guard or will this be the time where VT just takes what has been theirs over the past few years? One of the better games of the week IMO and I trust CB when he says UNC wins.

Wake +160--away team has won this game the last 3 years I believe. Last time Wake was in Tally they won something like 30-0. They blew the Noles out. I want to see it happen but I just don't think the Noles let it happen again.

Boise +385--this one comes down to the question, is the rest of the Pac-10 really that bad? We know USC is great but all other teams either laid eggs or damn near laid eggs last week. Oregon is likely decompressing this week after a tough win while Ian Johnson would like nothing more than to beat a BCS school as a senior. Maybe worth a shot at nearly 4:1

Central Michigan +400--I believe Purdue beat them twice last year. This has to lead to Purdue overlooking this Chippewa team that is odds on favorite to win the MAC again. Couple that with the heartbreaking loss and possible down week of preparation for the Boilers and you have an upset in the making

Texas A&M +160--shitty vs shitty here in this matchup. Can the young Canes get it done at Kyle Field? A&M may very well be worth a shot at 160. I really don't see how either team scores though.

NCSU +250--rivalry game but too many injuries for the Pack IMO.

Toledo +250--actually Toledo is a tough place to play and Fresno just lost a heartbreaker that would have greatly improved their odds of crashing the BCS. That's tough to prepare after and Fresno has lost games like these plenty in the past. I believe they burned hard a few years ago after losing to So Cal and I wouldn't be shocked to see something like that here.

Tenn +240--IMO they looked shitty in both games. I don't see how they stop the Gators in this matchup. This is just not a good matchup for the Vols IMO.

Ariz State +240--if the Sun Devils win by 10 last week then we are likely looking at a 3 point spread IMO. I think that was the classic syndrome of overlooking a team. It doesn't change this game much in my opinion. I actually think the fighting Erickson's may be worth a shot here. This was not a good scheduling move by Vince Dooley IMO

San Jose State +320--someone educate me here. It seems to be a popular play amongst you guys. Can the win outright?

Flor Atlantic +240--I honestly believe they are better than Minnesota. They might win the Sun Belt this year and Minny should finish last in the Big 11. I may dance with this one as well.


Please provide thoughts on the above games and any others worth taking a shot at. Thanks guys and good luck :cheers:
 
Obviously, small dogs like VPI and Auburn have a good shot at winning, but among the larger dogs Toledo looks really good. Fresno does have a history of going in the tank after losing a big game. I'm also trying SJSU and Ariz St. And I agree that UCF might be worth a shot.
 
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Dwight Schrute said:
Louisville +160--tough trip for Kansas State and I really don't think anyone knows what they are made of yet. Louisville has had 2 weeks to prepare and a ton of pressure on this team to win this game IMO.

Colorado +125--Bill Stewart has abandoned zone blocking and managed to lead Pat White, Noel Devine and 5 returning OL starters to 3 points against ECU. I certainly have to lean to the Buffs here based on that, the fact that Hawkins is a solid coach and that WVU is making a nasty midweek trip.

Auburn +115--incredibly defense. Incredibly shitty offense. SEC home dog in a game that will come down to late in the 4th quarter. Whoever gets the ball last loses

Colorado State +225--they are certainly awful but Houston just lost to Air Force at home. Don't really know much else about this matchup

Texas A&M +160--shitty vs shitty here in this matchup. Can the young Canes get it done at Kyle Field? A&M may very well be worth a shot at 160. I really don't see how either team scores though.

Toledo +250--actually Toledo is a tough place to play and Fresno just lost a heartbreaker that would have greatly improved their odds of crashing the BCS. That's tough to prepare after and Fresno has lost games like these plenty in the past. I believe they burned hard a few years ago after losing to So Cal and I wouldn't be shocked to see something like that here.

Tenn +240--IMO they looked shitty in both games. I don't see how they stop the Gators in this matchup. This is just not a good matchup for the Vols IMO.

Ariz State +240--if the Sun Devils win by 10 last week then we are likely looking at a 3 point spread IMO. I think that was the classic syndrome of overlooking a team. It doesn't change this game much in my opinion. I actually think the fighting Erickson's may be worth a shot here. This was not a good scheduling move by Vince Dooley IMO

San Jose State +320--someone educate me here. It seems to be a popular play amongst you guys. Can the win outright?
Click to expand...

these are the ones that i think have some value. thread has good potential; i'll have some thoughts on these in a bit...def think sj state can win su
 
Hey Dwight. I'll chime in with a few thoughts on the list you've comprised here:

Scratch VT off your list. Carolina comes home after their huge win at Rutgers, while the Hokies hit the road after squeaking out a W against GT last week. This line should be UNC -4 or 4.5. Hokies offense is just not going to score many points this year. Also UNC nearly pulled the upset last year at Lane Stadium. This is a statement game for Butch Davis against a team that has been a mainstay at the top of the ACC since joining. I love UNC this weekend and will be on them LARGE.

Love your Wake and COL ideas. Been looking at both of them myself. On Wake for sure, we'll see about the Buffs. Auburn worth a look two, though I dunno if I really see them winning this one.....

I also think that the Gators are overrated and will be exposed a bit on defense when they play a team that can score. I like this game to sail over 51.5, and think the Vols may be worth a look at that juicy price....

Two you don't mention that I like a bit are:
NAVY +200
Gotta wonder if Rutgers is really just not very good. After getting stomped at home by Freson and UNC, going on the road to Navy will be a pesky affair. Rutgers is definitely more vulnerable vs. the pass, but its a pain in the ass to play a team like Navy especially after two losses like that.


Miss State +320

I have to bet this just on principle. GT will have trouble scoring against this Defense. This is great value on a game that should be very close. I'm on this side as well....


Good luck this weekend Dwight. I agree, there are some temping numbers out there.
 
Thanks for the thoughts guys. Doggy...I thought about Navy but everyone and their brother is on Rutgers. The Knights may have already given up on their season though making Navy a smart play. I'm the only person on the forum who likes GT -8 so I can't play Ms State ML. Though if GT doesn't cover, I will pull for Ms St to win SU.


Sportsnetwork's Predicted ML Dog Winners
1. Florida Atlantic 27 Minnesota 24
2. Navy 37 Rutgers 34
3. Virginia Tech 20 UNC 10
4. Boise 27 Oregon 17
5. Idaho 35 Utah St 21
6. Wake 20 Noles 17
7. Ball St 28 Indiana 24
8. Mia, OH 31 Cincinnati 20
9. San Jose State 30 Stanford 20
 
I like CSU on this list this mainly because they can run the ball above all else and that will win you some games, especially at home. Houston didn't do anything to stop AF or OKState from running on them. Houston does have ECU on deck as well.
 
i think the most live one would have to be a toss between San Jose state and Colorado.

San Jose should not be over looked and is easily talented enough to beat this depleted stanford team. As for colorado WV has fallen off, with a short line on the road i dont see WV having a easy task of winning this one. both games go down to the last possesion for the win. The Ville tonight has a great chance of upset too.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Thanks for the thoughts guys. Doggy...I thought about Navy but everyone and their brother is on Rutgers.
Click to expand...


All the more reason to like the Mids if you ask me. Everyone and their brother are usually on the losing side of lopsided games.

Good thread Dwight. I scratched Auburn off my list as well.

Liking Navy, Wake, Miss St, Col, and Tenn. I'll probably whittle this down to two or three plays. At the moment I think Colorado may drop off the list, but it will be tough for me to eliminate any of the other four.
 
The difference between the lopsided betting with kst/ville and rutgers/navy is that the rutgers line has moved from 3 to 6.5 at pinnacle while the kst line moed a little ot the 4 before stopping. There is some resistance in one game and not in the other..... from a go against the public point of view.
 
vegaskyle said:
The difference between the lopsided betting with kst/ville and rutgers/navy is that the rutgers line has moved from 3 to 6.5 at pinnacle while the kst line moed a little ot the 4 before stopping. There is some resistance in one game and not in the other..... from a go against the public point of view.
Click to expand...



spot on my friend
 
Week 4 Moneyline Dog Discussion

Each week I like to peg dogs that I could see winning outright. I won't play all of these, but with the help of everyone here, I hope to narrow this list and lock in some winners. Discuss...

Fla Atlantic +6.5, mainly a fade of Minny here, the worst 3-0 team in the country. FAU not too bad themselves though (at least in their conference) and already a little battle tested this year.

Navy +6.5, who is Rutgers to be laying points on the road? Especially against a team who loves to pound it which seems to be Rutgers' achilles heel right now.

Virginia Tech +2.5, although it isn't exactly an up year for VT, I still think this is an overreaction to VT's not so glamorous start and NC's 2-0 record. NC is still NC and I feel that they will be exposed here. Give me Beamer in this spot.

Boise State +10.5, some QB issues in Oregon now with Roper out, give me the live dog who doesn't have to make that long of a trip for this one who is no stranger to bringing down a big program.

Idaho +4.5, admittedly don't know a whole lot about either team here other than they both stink, I'll take the points against winless Utah State.

Wake Forest +4, WF can play, FSU unproven as all hell, should be a tight one.

Ball State +3, relative toss-up, both teams without a loss, Ball State has had trouble with Indiana in the past, see this as a spot to bring down a nice win for the program.

Miami Ohio +11.5, no Dustin Grutza, in-state rivalry, short trip for Miami, maybe a little bit of a hangover for Cincy after getting beat up last week in Oklahoma. Cincy may be ripe for the picking here.

San Jose St +8.5, Stanford seems to enjoy dropping games to inferior opponents, can really see SJSU coming out fighting here as they know this is winnable, not to mention they don't even have to leave the state to play the game.

:shake:
 
Do you read sportsnetwork or do you guys just randomly like the same plays? I don't care either way but I'm just curious if its 2 people seeing the same thing or if you read their plays. Good luck on whatever you play. Check out my thread below to see my ML Dog leans. Kill it this weekend bud
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Do you read sportsnetwork or do you guys just randomly like the same plays? I don't care either way but I'm just curious if its 2 people seeing the same thing or if you read their plays. Good luck on whatever you play. Check out my thread below to see my ML Dog leans. Kill it this weekend bud
Click to expand...

LOL....

I think its just a random occurrence that out of 45 games, the same 9 games show up in the same order....
 
What's up fellas? Been creepin' on the site for awhile, and hopefully I've picked up enough knowledge to add to the discussion.

Of the dogs posted, I think that Colorado, CSU, and Toledo look like the best from a situational standpoint.

I really like JPicks' thinking on the CSU game, and may tail him on that. It's going to be a rough spot for Houston this week with all of the distractions, plus they'll be playing in the thin air, which can't help the situation.
Does Fresno come out flat this week? There's already a lot of discussion going on about this game, but at 2.5:1, it's got to be worth a shot that they do come out flat having to travel halfway across the country.
Colorado/WVU intrigues me because I don't really know what to make of these two teams yet. Dwight, I agree with you that Hawkins is a much better coach that Stewart, but I think you still have to respect the playmaking ability of WVU, even with the terrible playcalling. The one thing that scares me about this game is the Playstation 3-3-5 defense that WVU runs is solid at defending the pass with all of the speed on the field, which is an advantage for WVU. But can this defense play a full 60 minutes in the high altitude on a weeknight and not get fatigued?
I really like CU here, but just can't pull the trigger for some reason. Thoughts?
 
Edmond_Dantes said:
What's up fellas? Been creepin' on the site for awhile, and hopefully I've picked up enough knowledge to add to the discussion.

Of the dogs posted, I think that Colorado, CSU, and Toledo look like the best from a situational standpoint.

I really like JPicks' thinking on the CSU game, and may tail him on that. It's going to be a rough spot for Houston this week with all of the distractions, plus they'll be playing in the thin air, which can't help the situation.
Does Fresno come out flat this week? There's already a lot of discussion going on about this game, but at 2.5:1, it's got to be worth a shot that they do come out flat having to travel halfway across the country.
Colorado/WVU intrigues me because I don't really know what to make of these two teams yet. Dwight, I agree with you that Hawkins is a much better coach that Stewart, but I think you still have to respect the playmaking ability of WVU, even with the terrible playcalling. The one thing that scares me about this game is the Playstation 3-3-5 defense that WVU runs is solid at defending the pass with all of the speed on the field, which is an advantage for WVU. But can this defense play a full 60 minutes in the high altitude on a weeknight and not get fatigued?
I really like CU here, but just can't pull the trigger for some reason. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Good post and welcome to the site. I totally forgot about Ike and its ramifications on Houston's preparation.
 
Edmond_Dantes said:
What's up fellas? Been creepin' on the site for awhile, and hopefully I've picked up enough knowledge to add to the discussion.

Of the dogs posted, I think that Colorado, CSU, and Toledo look like the best from a situational standpoint.

I really like JPicks' thinking on the CSU game, and may tail him on that. It's going to be a rough spot for Houston this week with all of the distractions, plus they'll be playing in the thin air, which can't help the situation.
Does Fresno come out flat this week? There's already a lot of discussion going on about this game, but at 2.5:1, it's got to be worth a shot that they do come out flat having to travel halfway across the country.
Colorado/WVU intrigues me because I don't really know what to make of these two teams yet. Dwight, I agree with you that Hawkins is a much better coach that Stewart, but I think you still have to respect the playmaking ability of WVU, even with the terrible playcalling. The one thing that scares me about this game is the Playstation 3-3-5 defense that WVU runs is solid at defending the pass with all of the speed on the field, which is an advantage for WVU. But can this defense play a full 60 minutes in the high altitude on a weeknight and not get fatigued?
I really like CU here, but just can't pull the trigger for some reason. Thoughts?
Click to expand...


nice first post and great count of monte cristo reference as well ...
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Thanks for the thoughts guys. Doggy...I thought about Navy but everyone and their brother is on Rutgers. The Knights may have already given up on their season though making Navy a smart play. I'm the only person on the forum who likes GT -8 so I can't play Ms State ML. Though if GT doesn't cover, I will pull for Ms St to win SU.


Sportsnetwork's Predicted ML Dog Winners
1. Florida Atlantic 27 Minnesota 24
2. Navy 37 Rutgers 34
3. Virginia Tech 20 UNC 10
4. Boise 27 Oregon 17
5. Idaho 35 Utah St 21
6. Wake 20 Noles 17
7. Ball St 28 Indiana 24
8. Mia, OH 31 Cincinnati 20
9. San Jose State 30 Stanford 20
Click to expand...

In order I like...Wake, FAU, SJSU, Boise & BSU...gotta LOVE Live Dogs.
Also, like a State of Colorado Double Dogg Play...CU & CSU...:shake:

Mully :cheers:
 
<table border="1"><tbody><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 1.00 </td><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 39,745.52 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"> Football - 309 Central Florida +360 for Game
Football - 328 Colorado State +210 for Game
Football - 330 Navy +200 for Game
Football - 335 Wake Forest +160 for Game
Football - 339 Boise State +360 for Game
Football - 354 Texas A&M +155 for Game
Football - 360 Toledo +240 for Game
Football - 363 Idaho +180 for Game
Football - 385 Florida Atlantic +220 for Game </td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Dwight Schrute said:
<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap align=right>1.00 </TD><TD noWrap align=right>39,745.52 </TD><TD noWrap>Football - 309 Central Florida +360 for Game
Football - 328 Colorado State +210 for Game
Football - 330 Navy +200 for Game
Football - 335 Wake Forest +160 for Game
Football - 339 Boise State +360 for Game
Football - 354 Texas A&M +155 for Game
Football - 360 Toledo +240 for Game
Football - 363 Idaho +180 for Game
Football - 385 Florida Atlantic +220 for Game
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Click to expand...


if you hit it , you are coming to vegas on the 12th of oct
 
Idaho
ULM
Toledo
SJSU

Will try to chime in with some thoughts later tonight, but I have some info on each of these in my thread already. Best of luck this weekend guys.
 
vegaskyle said:
The difference between the lopsided betting with kst/ville and rutgers/navy is that the rutgers line has moved from 3 to 6.5 at pinnacle while the kst line moed a little ot the 4 before stopping. There is some resistance in one game and not in the other..... from a go against the public point of view.
Click to expand...


qouting myself ....love it .

updating this, the line is now starting to hit 5.5 places .....
 
JPicks said:
both of us laughed our asses off at that one.
Click to expand...

I can picture you two snuggled up in the twin bed, his arm around your side peeking over as you read CTG

Have fun fellas...get fucked up and enjoy the left coast swing Killa:cheers::cheers:
 
I can't believe no one is mentioning CMU or N. Dame to possibly win this week outright. I know most think Purdue bounces back but c'mon Purdue has already beat them twice in the last year, so why will they be interested this week with a trip to South Bend next week. And the away team in that ND-MState series does very well.....

L'ville +205 gonna take a shot tonight with the home team in primetime
 
Moot said:
I can't believe no one is mentioning CMU or N. Dame to possibly win this week outright. I know most think Purdue bounces back but c'mon Purdue has already beat them twice in the last year, so why will they be interested this week with a trip to South Bend next week. And the away team in that ND-MState series does very well.....

L'ville +205 gonna take a shot tonight with the home team in primetime
Click to expand...


I do agree with CMU...you know they want another shot at Purdue while Purdue may expect another 2TD win. I don't see it happening
 
Moot said:
I can't believe no one is mentioning CMU or N. Dame to possibly win this week outright. I know most think Purdue bounces back but c'mon Purdue has already beat them twice in the last year, so why will they be interested this week with a trip to South Bend next week. And the away team in that ND-MState series does very well.....

L'ville +205 gonna take a shot tonight with the home team in primetime
Click to expand...


i called for this upset in the offseason ... before i knew how bad cmich defense was gonna start the year. they can do it .. they know after the bowl game that they can play with these guys. to have any chance though , they are going to ahve to actually show up in the first quarter ... they have been asleep the first fifteen minutes in all three games this year.
 
I just saw this, and see that I am mentioned, so I'll respond.

My stuff is posted on Garfather's blog every week. I don't know if it's OK to link to that, so I won't, but for the most part on this site I'll restrict myself to commenting from time to time in others' threads.

This week I'm on Ball St., Kent St., SJSU, CMU, and UCF. I'll probably add a few. I like FAU, Baylor, and Army. Marshall got a little too cheap for me, and I might add Arkansas as well if the number goes up.

GL to all that play this week. I might not have the right ones, but I think someone is going to do very well with these money lines......
 
One more idle thought:

Rutgers finally gets to play a team that can't pressure Teel. Navy could win, but they'll have to score a lot. If you like Navy, consider the OVER as well.
 
love the thread..thanks dwight....

A lot of people see tenny as a live dog, I disagree. Florida after a bye week is almost akin to USC after a bye, although it is on the road...they should score at will.

I also believe Arkansas will get blown out...just my opinion.

Now..Arizona State sun devils is a damn live dog...perfect situation.

UGA travels to the desert, 3 hour time difference, after a hard fought victory against SC..and take on a pissed off ASU team with a senior QB and respectable skill players and a night game to boot. I think they have at least a 50 percent chance of winning.
 
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