CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Leave it to fate to intervene when tonight's first ever college football championship game is played in the Dallas metro area. Oregon will look for its first-ever national title when it plays against Ohio State.
It's an appropriate matchup, given that the Ducks and Buckeyes also met in the NCAA's first ever BASKETBALL championship game more than 75 years ago.
Ohio State came from 21-6 down against top-ranked Alabama last week to stun the Crimson Tide, 42-35. Meanwhile, the Ducks were a touchdown favorite but flattened unbeaten Florida State, 59-20. The Seminoles had four turnovers in the third quarter alone, paving the way for an ambush.
Both of those games flew over the posted totals, and it makes sense to think that tonight's game should as well, especially when you look at how good each offense has been most of the season. The statistics are remarkable in their similarity. Each team averages at least 45 points and averages a margin of victory at around 23 ppg.
Third-string quarterback Cardale Jones has performed heroically in his two postseason starts, but tonight's game will be only his third career start. He's much more likely to make a mistake (was barely above 50 percent passing against Alabama) than Oregon's Heisman Trophy winner, Marcus Mariota.
That said, Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott is also equally likely to break a long run. He ran for 450 yards against Wisconsin and Alabama in the last two games, with big plays everywhere littered in. An 85-yarder against Bama was a backbreaker in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
Oregon forced 30 turnovers this season, which paved the way for a nation's best plus-20 turnover margin. The Duck defense has given up scads of yards at times this season, but has had a knack for forcing the big play or getting the key stop when necessary. And the offense, as we saw in the Rose Bowl, goes for the jugular when it can.
The Ducks seem to be the better team and the right side, which is why they're favored by a touchdown. They've won and covered nine straight (depending on where you shop).
But I sure don't like giving points away when Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is on the other side. His career record as an underdog coach is 13-2 straight up, and 34-9 against the number with more than a week to prepare. This season, the Buckeyes are 4-0 against the number in games where they've had more than a week to prepare, dispatching bowl teams Navy, Rutgers, Cincinnati and Alabama.
The Buckeyes have had the same starting five up front on offense for all 14 games. Meanwhile, the Ducks have only had one player, Mariota, start all 13 games at the same offensive position. That said, the astonishing depth the Ducks have developed should serve them well here; at least seven Oregon players caught 20 balls this season and scored at least four touchdowns.
Underdogs have gone 23-15 ATS in these bowls, with an incredible 20 wins outright. There will be more underdog winners in bowl games this season than favorites. So Ohio State certainly has a fighting chance going into this one.
It seems about as sucker a prediction as you can come up with, but in a game that pits two offense that score as prolifically as these do, the only way you can bet the game is OVER. The Ducks have scored 38 points or more in all but one game this season; the Buckeyes 31 or more in each of their last 12 games (11-1 OVER in that span). I'll call for an instant classic in the first-ever playoff final. Score it Oregon 44, Ohio State 40. The recommendation is on OVER 73.
Medium play, 2 units.
GL!
:shake:
It's an appropriate matchup, given that the Ducks and Buckeyes also met in the NCAA's first ever BASKETBALL championship game more than 75 years ago.
Ohio State came from 21-6 down against top-ranked Alabama last week to stun the Crimson Tide, 42-35. Meanwhile, the Ducks were a touchdown favorite but flattened unbeaten Florida State, 59-20. The Seminoles had four turnovers in the third quarter alone, paving the way for an ambush.
Both of those games flew over the posted totals, and it makes sense to think that tonight's game should as well, especially when you look at how good each offense has been most of the season. The statistics are remarkable in their similarity. Each team averages at least 45 points and averages a margin of victory at around 23 ppg.
Third-string quarterback Cardale Jones has performed heroically in his two postseason starts, but tonight's game will be only his third career start. He's much more likely to make a mistake (was barely above 50 percent passing against Alabama) than Oregon's Heisman Trophy winner, Marcus Mariota.
That said, Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott is also equally likely to break a long run. He ran for 450 yards against Wisconsin and Alabama in the last two games, with big plays everywhere littered in. An 85-yarder against Bama was a backbreaker in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
Oregon forced 30 turnovers this season, which paved the way for a nation's best plus-20 turnover margin. The Duck defense has given up scads of yards at times this season, but has had a knack for forcing the big play or getting the key stop when necessary. And the offense, as we saw in the Rose Bowl, goes for the jugular when it can.
The Ducks seem to be the better team and the right side, which is why they're favored by a touchdown. They've won and covered nine straight (depending on where you shop).
But I sure don't like giving points away when Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is on the other side. His career record as an underdog coach is 13-2 straight up, and 34-9 against the number with more than a week to prepare. This season, the Buckeyes are 4-0 against the number in games where they've had more than a week to prepare, dispatching bowl teams Navy, Rutgers, Cincinnati and Alabama.
The Buckeyes have had the same starting five up front on offense for all 14 games. Meanwhile, the Ducks have only had one player, Mariota, start all 13 games at the same offensive position. That said, the astonishing depth the Ducks have developed should serve them well here; at least seven Oregon players caught 20 balls this season and scored at least four touchdowns.
Underdogs have gone 23-15 ATS in these bowls, with an incredible 20 wins outright. There will be more underdog winners in bowl games this season than favorites. So Ohio State certainly has a fighting chance going into this one.
It seems about as sucker a prediction as you can come up with, but in a game that pits two offense that score as prolifically as these do, the only way you can bet the game is OVER. The Ducks have scored 38 points or more in all but one game this season; the Buckeyes 31 or more in each of their last 12 games (11-1 OVER in that span). I'll call for an instant classic in the first-ever playoff final. Score it Oregon 44, Ohio State 40. The recommendation is on OVER 73.
Medium play, 2 units.
GL!
:shake:
