Monday UMPs

[CollegeKingRex]

Going small on UNDER out of principle alone in New York.

 

[GWarner27]

should we play the under and just hope for Perez to pitch like he did on opening night? Figueroa isn't amazing either though...

 

[Mokey]

Fig pitches good at shea

 

[Mokey]

I think Mets bat perez around but dont kno if Nats will help so yea under for me

 

[barmeezee]

hit the under too for 1/2 UNIT

 

[redbearde]

Seattle @ Texas

Chad Fairchild

 

[CollegeKingRex]

REILLY officially in Cleveland. Got a small bet to OVER 7.5 plus 105 there... He's a good ump but has a small strike zone. Have to think that at some point the Blow Jays start to hit this enigma Cliff Fucking Lee...

 

[redbearde]

fairchild's pretty neutral.

Currently, he's 5-3 o/u with 61.32% strikes. 13.2 SOs/9.2 walks = 1.43
in 2007, 14-13 o/u with 62.33% strikes. 14.9 SOs/7.0 walks = 2.14
in 2006, 8-7 o/u with 62.67% strikes. 12.5 SOs/6.7 walks = 1.86
in 2005, 5-7 o/u with 64.15% strikes. 12.8 SOs/5.8 walks = 2.20
in 2004, 1-0 o/u with 61.02% strikes. 11.0 SOs/6.0 walks = 1.83

 

[CollegeKingRex]

yes he is. Very neutral.

Here's who is left:

EMMEL
HOYE
NELSON
BARRY
NAUERT
WEST
B.WELKE

Hoye is my lone clubber over.

Nelson and Bill Welke (disregard his record thus far, regression is only a matter of time from now) are my two under guys left.



HOLY SHIT. A 1-2 pitch on the inside corner and "E" didn't ring him up. The replay showed it was, indeed, inside. No matter, Zimmerman struck out on the next pitch.

 

[redbearde]

San Diego @ Chicago

Marvin Hudson

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Ho Ho Ho Take Your Base HUDSON coming off vacation and working in Wrigley tonight. He's an honorary OVER member, but I tend to only get involved in his games when he's got a gas can or two out there. Zambrano is a firecracker, but he's been going pretty good lately, and the Padres just can't hit.

DO NOT BE SURPRISED if Hudson squeezes Zambrano, and it pisses him off and he loses his focus. I would see no problem with anyone who had the stones to bet Wolf to the OVER tonight. With the total being this low, it's a nice correlation, and the Pads are 12-4 in their last 16 at Wrigley and 12-3 last 15 vs. CUBS...

No more stalking til the 10:00 games... back in a bit...

 

[redbearde]

Hudson is 4-3 o/u with 61.15% strikes. 13.6 SOs/9.1 walks = 1.48
in 2007, 17-17 o/u with 62.09% strikes. 13.8 SOs/7.4 walks = 1.86
in 2006, 12-19 o/u with 62.59% strikes. 13.6 SOs/6.9 walks = 1.98
in 2005, 20-15 o/u with 63.41% strikes. 12.4 SOs/5.8 walks = 2.15
in 2004, 16-18 o/u with 62.52% strikes. 13.1 SOs/6.1 walks = 2.17
in 2003, 18-15 o/u with 62.45% strikes. 12.3 SOs/6.9 walks = 1.77
in 2002, 12-19 o/u with 61.86% strikes. 12.0 SOs/7.2 walks = 1.67
in 2001, 13-18 o/u with 63.22% strikes. 13.8 SOs/5.9 walks = 2.33

 

[GWarner27]

was too late on the WAS-NYM under, but Fairchild seems to be an over guy at 10.7 rpg, but Bedard and Padilla had good outings in their first match-up with these teams as Bedard has a 2.25 era and Padilla had a 0.69. Not bad i don't think, and it makes sense for the under to be 8.5 with the struggling M's bats

 

[BetCrimes1984]

St Louis @ Milwaukee

yup...Paul Schrieber.

Schrieber defies physics

1.27 SO/BB ratio, 59.79% strike calls, avg 305.9 pitches game (all stats Over lovers dream of their Ump having), yet he's 6-1 Under

but, his last Over? a Dave Bush 4-12 loss in Milk (O/U 3-1 his last 4 Bush BHP), and 4 of the 6 Unders creep under by .5/1 run

He keeps those initial stats up, there's no way his Under ways continue

 

[GWarner27]

i may bite on the CHC-SD over. How well do the Cubs hit LHP, i wonder?

as a team they're .285 and Soriano is hitting .300...another thing about the Cubs OVER possibilities is that Zambrano is not a normal pitcher as he can hit. At 7.5 i may take my chances but i'm not sure as of yet

 

[BetCrimes1984]

MIL 6-0 to Under L6
STL 5-1 to Under L6
Wainwright 4-1-1 to Under L6
Ump 6-1 to Under L7
No Pujols (well, not unless theres loaded bases late, there isnt)

That's enough for me - Over 8.5 for small

 

[NYGiants25]

i may bite on the CHC-SD over. How well do the Cubs hit LHP, i wonder?

overall they are batting .290 this year against lhp and averaging 5.3 runs per 9 innings, .247 in their last 10 against lhp and averaging 3.04 runs per 9 innings, at home they are batting .379 against lhp and averaging 11.66 runs per 9 innings

 

[GWarner27]

overall they are batting .290 this year against lhp and averaging 5.3 runs per 9 innings, .247 in their last 10 against lhp and averaging 3.04 runs per 9 innings, at home they are batting .379 against lhp and averaging 11.66 runs per 9 innings

that's enough for me.

Cubs-Padres OVER 7.5 for me at +100

 

[redbearde]

Chicago White Sox @ Anaheim

Bill Welke

 

[Mokey]

already 9 runs at shea I knew I shoulda took that over

 

[Cherry Picker]

red, Rex, Crimes, etc. -

anything jump out at you for these two late games (CWS/LAA, Hou/SF)?

Thanks and GL...

 

[redbearde]

only thing I'd say offhand is why the fuck did they bring Zito back to start again?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Whale - Welke is 6-0 to Over, you have 2 pitchers who have been far from impressive & both teams face a L/R starter that they're hitting best off, for that LA game.
Problem for me is the WS offense runs so hot & cold, and they're off a couple of Over results (recorded 3 straight just twice this season, 4 straight not once). If they headed into this game with recent Unders under their belt, not Overs, I'd have been more inclined towards that Over.

 

[redbearde]

Houston @ San Fran

Scott Barry

 

[redbearde]

Scott Barry is 1-2 o/u with 64.79% strikes. 13.3 SOs/5.7 walks = 2.35
in 2007, he was 7-1 o/u with 59.07% strikes. 12.6 SOs/9.4 walks = 1.35
in 2006, he was 1-4 o/u with 63.31% strikes. 16.6 SOs/6.2 walks = 2.68

wind is blowing out to CF somewheres between 15 to 21 mph.

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">Time</td> <td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="140">Condition</td> <td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">Feels
Like</td> <td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">Chance
Precip</td> <td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">Dew
Point</td> <td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">Humid.</td> <td class="vbgA" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">Wind</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">7pm </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="128"> <table class="hrCondData" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="110"> <tbody><tr> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="35">

</td> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="75">Partly Cloudy / Wind
62°F </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">62°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">0%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">40°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">44%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">From WNW 21 mph</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">8pm </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="128"> <table class="hrCondData" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="110"> <tbody><tr> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="35">

</td> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="75">Partly Cloudy / Wind
59°F </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">55°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">0%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">41°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">51%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">From WNW 22 mph</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="lapHourlySun" style="color: rgb(69, 91, 115);" width="50%">Sunset 8:10 pm</td> <td class="lapHourlySun" style="color: rgb(69, 91, 115);" align="right" width="50%">NASCAR Forecast </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">9pm </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="128"> <table class="hrCondData" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="110"> <tbody><tr> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="35">

</td> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="75">Partly Cloudy / Wind
57°F </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">53°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">0%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">41°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">55%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">From WNW 20 mph</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"><tbody><tr><td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">10pm </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="128"> <table class="hrCondData" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="110"> <tbody><tr> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="35">

</td> <td class="blueText" align="center" valign="middle" width="75">Partly Cloudy
55°F </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">51°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">0%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">41°F</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">59%</td> <td class="lapHourlyDataRow" align="center" valign="middle" width="55">From WNW 17 mph</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[BetCrimes1984]

MIL 6-0 to Under L6
STL 5-1 to Under L6
Wainwright 4-1-1 to Under L6
Ump 6-1 to Under L7
No Pujols (well, not unless theres loaded bases late, there isnt)

That's enough for me - Over 8.5 for small

Thanks Bill Hall, and Ryan Braun, for bringing the long ball to the park tonight, because Christ knows STL weren't out to help.