Monday, September 3rd Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well gentlemen, its time for another season of college football. Nothing really beats the anticipation we go through each spring/summer awaiting the return of our sport. Its been a great summer so far of capping here at CTG. I want to thank everyone who has been involved in the forum in the dog days. The list is too long but guys like lindetrain, garfather, vegaskyle, yessir, jump, hunt, etg, dmoney, signacaller, RJ....the list goes on. Great job. Preperation is what will make us winners by season end. I cannot stress that enough. There is still lots of work to do but fortunately we have the time and talent to get it done.

About myself, I basically play straight plays. I do not do dips/teasers and the only parlays I will look at are very small ML paralys early in the year. I usually just tail Hunt on those and don't even post them. I am not a huge fan of totals but will do present some here and there. The landscape has changed again this season with the clock rules back like 2005. We will have to readjust our capping again but it is for the best. My strengths are my big plays. In the regular season last year I did not lose a single big play of 5 units. I am pretty proud of that fact and intend to keep on it again this year. My goal this year is to eliminate the needless plays. Its tough with big boards but I think I have a pretty good gameplan for this fall. Plays will range from 1-5 units in college football. I will also readjust how much each unit is worth after each 4 weeks that way the units are not on a sliding scale. I don't recommend my style of betting for everyone. It works for me. Flat betting works for others. Thats life. Thats about it..lets go win some money.

Florida State @ Clemson

Anyone who has been following the college forum this summer knows my feelings on this game. I believe its an absolute gift and have this valued as a 6-7 point spread. I know quite a few won't agree with me but so be it. Lets get the obvious out of the way. This is a double-revenge game for the Seminoles. They do not want to lose three straight to Clemson. Daddy Bowden has assembled a helluva staff this year down there and I think they come into the season underaapreciated and will leap back onto the national scene.

Why is so FSU so different BAR? Thats easy. Last year was a myriad of injuries and inconsistency. They never could gather any momemtum last year and the offense struggled with the aforemntioned injuries lack of creativity in my mind. Take away the Wake Forest game and every los was under a one-possession game. They fought last year but just came up a little short. The biggest improvement this year will be the offense. Smith will do very well at RB and the receiving corps is top notch. ETG also mentioned the TE transfer from SC(Hannah) so that helps as well. The biggest thing though is a better O-Line. The kids didn't have a chance last season behind that line at times. The line is now coached by WVU's old OL coach which can only do wonders. This offense, no matter the QB, is going to improve so much. Basically thouhg all they need to do is be consistent.

Why just be consistent BAR? Because this defense is nasty. Thats why. This team gave up under 100 rpg last season. Overall the defense gave up under 300 ypg. This was with injuries as well. Eight starters return and this group is gonna make plays and help the offense out week in and week out.

Now lets look at the Tigers. I can sum up why I think they get crushed in week one in one sentence. New QB and a very green offensive line. This is the sort of spots you have to look for in the early weeks each year guys. FSU is gonna eat the kid alive and have a pretty easy time doing it. Are Spiller and Davis great? Hell yes. The problem is they are going againts a great run defense behind a new line and with a QB that isn't going to be able to help them out. This has disaster written all over it.

I think FSU controls this game from the outset. The offense will get chances to succed off short fields created by the defense. FSU gets up early and then when Clemson has to pass turnovers occur and this should be an easy one. I doubt Clemosn gets more than 10 points. I took this under as many did because it is way off. If it goes down enough I may middle it..we shall see..think its a great number though. I usually hate playing side and total but had to in this case.

Florida St -1.5 -110 5 units
Florida St U43.5 -110 2 units


Questions, comments and GL's welcomed. Shutups and fuck yous if need be ;)
 
whoot whoot, starting the yr off with a bang! great analysis and you are 100% spot on. New Oline + new qb vs a good vet defense = trouble.
 
Yesir..thank yas sir

ETG...I think we got this pegged right. I usually don't play a max play in week on or on a nattie TV Monday night but I love this spot..bottom line
 
Not sure but it looks like FSU is the preliminary favorite to be the CTG consensus game of week 1
 
Yea and good thing you locked it in now before the whole word chases on this play since it is on Monday. The most bet game of that week? Everyone who won/loss in the world will have money on this game.
 
Kyle, I honestly thought that this would opwen at 3 or so. Power ratings and what not dictate around a PK but I am still suprised it was 1 and 1.5. I think it will get up near 3 then some late money on the home doggie.

ETG, I know some do not advocate playing games this early while others love it. Well, I am happy as hell with this line and I also got Mich St at a frickin 16.5 an its 18.5-19 now. Its well worth it whn you see definite value. Especially when you can buy out of it a later point.
 
Ya i thought it would be around a 3 or so too , BAR. my power ratings made fsu 9 which i immediately stated in my PR thread looked way off to me but given the quantity of excellent cappers such as you playing fsu , maybe my PR wasn't as off as i thought.
 
Next season (so far away) I would like to try getting into making my own power ratings. Right now my offseason capping and preparation consists of sorting through cfn.com, phil steele x2, athlon, and various other website articles on rivals. Any tips on how to prepare your own power ratings?

Ya i thought it would be around a 3 or so too , BAR. my power ratings made fsu 9 which i immediately stated in my PR thread looked way off to me but given the quantity of excellent cappers such as you playing fsu , maybe my PR wasn't as off as i thought.
 
Yes I love these plays, have been thinking of both of them since I saw the original line.

The thing that worries me is why is that total set so high do they oddsmakers know something we don't know, are they already setting some kind of trap?
 
On this as well at -1'; surprised we haven't moved the line assuming most, as well as yourself, are playing this at the Greek. I put down a solid amount there on the 'Noles myself.

:smiley_acbe:
 
I played this one at Bookmaker Horses but I agree that I am suprised the line didn't really move since it came out. Perhaps the ole vegas sharps seing a home doggy is keeping this tight so far.
 
If that's so, fuck 'em; I love this play. 'Noles have a stud kicker as well which I think may be important, since I think they'll see the red zone plenty, but I'm unsure how many they'll punch in.
 
If that's so, fuck 'em; I love this play. 'Noles have a stud kicker as well which I think may be important, since I think they'll see the red zone plenty, but I'm unsure how many they'll punch in.

I actually forgot to include that in my write-up. I saw ETG put it in his and totally forgot. That is another key factor as well.
 
Thank you Troy...great start so far bro with prep..

Thanks a lot Gamble...

Yanks..def resurgent year IMO for Free Shoes U.

Wolfpack...thanks bro
 
With ya buddy. We locked in some great value here and agree with ETG that this will be heavily bet and the chasers love favorites on mondays. Think your analysis of this match up is dead on and I hope we can walk easily to the window ( or computer screen) and cash our tickets.
 
With ya buddy. We locked in some great value here and agree with ETG that this will be heavily bet and the chasers love favorites on mondays. Think your analysis of this match up is dead on and I hope we can walk easily to the window ( or computer screen) and cash our tickets.

No doubt about it Kyle. Its basically at a FG everywhere now. I am very happy with the line)s) many of us got. Could not of asked for anything better.
 
I am leaning towards FSU, but the QB play of FSU and Clemson defense (still pretty good this year) and the homefield keep me from locking it in. If you thought the 43.5 was way off...it is at 44.5 now at Bookmaker. I may just stay away from the side and play the under as I feel it safer.
 
Agreed...

If you take a look at the matchups of Clemson offense vs FSU defense it is a big advantage to FSU. FSU DL allowed 2.9 ypc last year and only lose DE Burston ( not a big loss at all ) . LB do lose Buster Davis and Lawrence Timmons but Geno Hayes is solid along with Derek Nicholson and Marcus Bell being healthy again, shouldn't have as big of drop off as people think. Then if you look at the secondary it basically returns everyone and expect Tony Carter and Myron Rolle to be even better than they were last year. Add in one of the fastest players in all of college football in freshman Michael Ray Garvin (10.24 100m).
You put them up against new QB and green OL .. it's not good, along with a worse WR core than last year. I do think Spiller could get a long TD against FSU though, just because that is the kind of player he is and his 10.41 100m speed. Or Jacoby Ford catching a slant and taking it to the house ( 10.23 100m) I do not see Clemson gaining more than 14 points though.

For FSU QB's still a problem, but really like Antone Smith and good WR. Clemson DL allowed 3.4 ypc last year and I expect them to do the same even with the loss of Gaines Adams. The LB corps will be better than last year and the DB are solid once again. I expect FSU to just score 17-20 points.

17-20 + 14 = 31-34 for me. 44.5 points is a gift in my opinion.
 
BAR, GG -- I think you are on the value side of this total. I guess it will all depend on where the bad qb's throw their horrific interceptions. always want the turnover to be near the "right" end zone.
 
Texas tech -10 -110 1 unit

I posted this in wrong thread but played it several days ago. This is a TT team that will actually field an OK defense. They also have a QB returning starter for first time in years. Thats huge in that system. This is a team that will just explode and I feel even better knowing they have upgraded the usual suspect defense. I know if you check GridironGems and SHSU's threads you find even better analysis.
 
I added onto Texas Tech with the line movement. I like play even more now

Texas Tech -8.5 -110 2 units
 
B.A.R., I got on FSU too late @ -3.5 would u still play it?

First of all, line shop and find a three when you do that. Worse case lay 120 and buy down to three. Its a must at that number. Now, would I play it still? Yes. I had this line valued at 6 to 6.5 before the season started. Look what some nasty defenses did on Saturday. I reference LSU(thurs), Miami(FL), Oklahoma etc...they shut teams down and the offense fed off the defense.

GL man:cheers:
 
I really don't have an opinion either way on that one. Heres one mans opinion coming up....
 
not going to start a new thread, so I will just throw some stuff in here, I really don't know where I should put it, but.....

From the wvgazette ( I will just crib some stuff, the writers are not really worth reading)

-
John Jacobs left the game with an injury, possibly a broken hand, forcing the Herd to dig deeper into its roster at defensive end.
“We had two freshmen in there at one time, [Johnny] Jones and [Michael] Janac,” Dunlap said. “I called a zone blitz one time and said, ‘Uh, oh,’ but they did it. They did it well.”
All told, 10 Herd freshmen — true and redshirt — saw action. The true freshmen included Marshall, D.J. Wingate (who doesn’t have a redshirt year available), Corey Hart and Jones.




Maurice Kitchens had his first career interception, denying Miami the chance to score off all four MU turnovers. (note:this one gave me a chuckle)

- Miami’s scoring drives averaged 1 minute, 46 seconds.

-Bernard Morris went 16-of-26 for 162 yards, including a 44-yard bomb to Passmore. His three interceptions can be broken down neatly into three categories: One wasn’t his fault (the ball bounced off Chubb Small’s hands), one was really the result of a super play by a superstar (Calais Campbell’s pick of a screen to Small), and the third was simply a dreadful decision (Spencer Adkins had hours to reach a desperation dump-off).

-Miami nearly had two 100-yard rushers (Cooper gained 116, Javarris James 99), and gained 341 yards total. Kirby Freeman was just 9-of-21 passing for 81 yards and an interception, and his longest play was just 19 yards. The Herd failed to force a negative-yardage play, but Snyder wasn’t discouraged.

Not much stuff there, but it is still early of course. No significant injuries to report from the Mountaineer sidelines.
 
Well, this play certainly was way off.

I know its mid-second qtr but this play is toast already. Twent-one points in a matchup up like this is more like 35.

I think that the biggest dissapointment is the Florida St defense. They were a very good group last year despite injuries. I really expected a lot more out of them vs a failry green O-line for Clemson. Thats where this game is being won right now. No one i ntheir right mind would say that Clemson O-Line woudl rule the first half but my hats off to them.

Younger Bowden had a better gameplan as well.

Hopefully I can get a FSU shutout and hit under to salvage the day/week.
 
I know the defense isn't looking that great BAR...but I put just as much of this on the offense. That defense has been on the field the whole half and Clemson is starting in FSU territory almost every possession. Tough spot for a defense definitely.
 
I do agree with that Gems. This game has beena complete opposite of how I thought it could go. I never discredited the Tigers defense but they are very good. Def a little better than I expected.

FSU defense has actually settled down now but its obviously too late. They say football is a 60 minute game but sometimes it can be won in a quarter and that was the first qtr tonight. Clemson took advatage of great field position and put TD's up and kept that field position the entire half.
 
Definetly huge.

I think we'll see Lee for entire second half.

Thats only way I'll watch another second of this game, to get a feel for him in that offense.
 
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