MLB Bet or Fade June 23: The Angels Look Extra Heavenly Tonight
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, June 23, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park
Allan Winans
New York starts Allan Winans today after he was called up from Triple A.
We get the Yankees at a cheap price today because of Winans' poor history in MLB games. His MLB stats should not concern bettors, though, because he was a different pitcher then.
Since playing for a new Triple A team this year, he is 7-0 with a 0.90 ERA. Before this season, he never pitched remotely as well. He is now clearly ready to succeed professionally.
His start on April 23 demonstrates the quality of his stuff. Remarkably, he struck out ten of his first eleven batters faced. An MLB pitcher would not have done better.
Every pitcher who makes it to the professional level has good stuff, even if it isn't as good as Winans'. What really separates those who succeed at the highest level and those who are demoted back to Triple A is command.
Winans' professional outlook is so strong because he has excellent command. In three June starts, totaling 16.2 innings, he walked all of two batters.
His readiness for professional baseball creates value in the Yankees' odds today.
Outlook for Nick Lodolo
Winans will also get plenty of support from Yankees batters today.
By far, they rank number one with a .547 slugging rate against Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo's pitches from lefties.
Look out, among others, for Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. Both are combined 8-for-17 with a double and two home runs against Lodolo.
Full-Game Play
New York is worth a full-game investment because it has the better bullpen by a clear margin. The Yankees' bullpen ranks ten spots ahead of Cincinnati's.
As a bonus, Lyon Richardson has pitched in two consecutive days, so he might not grace the mound for the Reds tonight. While he is a rare bright spot in Cincinnati's bullpen and the team's best reliever, Bellinger — who is the only Yankee to have faced Richardson — has hit two home runs in two at-bats against him.
Best Bet: Yankees ML at -120 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, June 23, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field
Bryan Woo
Seattle starts Bryan Woo tonight.
Woo's strong reputation explains why the Mariners are favored away from home.
But Woo has been rather shaky both on the road, where his ERA is almost twice as high as his home ERA, and in June, where his ERA is more than twice as high as his season-long ERA.
Overall, Woo is not as good as he was last year. In particular, his command has declined.
Woo vs. Twins Batters
The data sample is small, but Minnesota's lineup collectively slugs .485 with Woo on the mound.
It is not justifiable to dismiss this statistic, because it must be expected given the extent to which the Twins match up well against Woo.
They are one of the better teams at slugging his pitches. Moreover, they benefit from the fact that Woo is a fly ball-inducing pitcher, as evident in their stronger play against this type of pitcher as opposed to ground-ball inducing pitchers.
These matchup factors indicate that they will build their already superbly promising track record against Woo.
Mariners' Let-Down Spot
Tonight's game is not one in which Woo can expect to receive much run support.
His team's offense exploded yesterday for 14 runs, positioning it in a let-down spot tonight.
When the Mariners scored eight runs on June 17, for example, they scored one on the following day. When they scored nine on May 27, they were shut out on May 28.
Except against terrible starting pitchers and when they benefited from errors from the defense, they consistently suffer a tremendous decline in run production in the game following one in which their offense thrived anomalously.
Minnesota's Starter Today
Bailey Ober, who starts for the Twins tonight, will make life too difficult for Seattle's lineup.
Ober's ERA in his last start might seem to suggest that his form is poor, but this is incorrect. He was victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His strong FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed well and thus enjoys good form.
The in-form Ober will be glad to face Seattle's lineup, especially given the latter's let-down spot. The Mariners already struggle with Ober on the mound, collectively slugging .385 against him, with more strikeouts than hits.
Best Bet: Twins First-Five ML at +116 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, June 23, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Boston's Struggling Starter
Walker Buehler starts for the Red Sox tonight.
Buehler is not the pitcher he once was. This is most obvious now and especially on the road. In his last three road starts, he allowed five earned runs in Atlanta, five earned runs in Yankee Stadium, and eight earned runs in Seattle.
His command has mostly been terrible. In addition to allowing too many walks, opposing batters are more easily belting home runs off him.
Overall, his road ERA is 9.23.
Angels batters already love facing Buehler, even though they were seeing a better version of the once well-reputed starter. Collectively, they slug .656 against him. Seven different Angels batters slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
Clear Edge
Los Angeles starter Jack Kochanowicz will easily secure a lead for his team through five innings if he limits the Red Sox to two earned runs, which is the total to which he held each of his last two opponents.
His outlook today is particularly strong because he matches up well against Boston's batters. They rank 23rd with a .385 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
This matchup factor solidifies the value in the Angels as a first-five play.
Best Bet: Angels First-Five ML at -113 with BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, June 23, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park
Allan Winans
New York starts Allan Winans today after he was called up from Triple A.
We get the Yankees at a cheap price today because of Winans' poor history in MLB games. His MLB stats should not concern bettors, though, because he was a different pitcher then.
Since playing for a new Triple A team this year, he is 7-0 with a 0.90 ERA. Before this season, he never pitched remotely as well. He is now clearly ready to succeed professionally.
His start on April 23 demonstrates the quality of his stuff. Remarkably, he struck out ten of his first eleven batters faced. An MLB pitcher would not have done better.
Every pitcher who makes it to the professional level has good stuff, even if it isn't as good as Winans'. What really separates those who succeed at the highest level and those who are demoted back to Triple A is command.
Winans' professional outlook is so strong because he has excellent command. In three June starts, totaling 16.2 innings, he walked all of two batters.
His readiness for professional baseball creates value in the Yankees' odds today.
Outlook for Nick Lodolo
Winans will also get plenty of support from Yankees batters today.
By far, they rank number one with a .547 slugging rate against Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo's pitches from lefties.
Look out, among others, for Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. Both are combined 8-for-17 with a double and two home runs against Lodolo.
Full-Game Play
New York is worth a full-game investment because it has the better bullpen by a clear margin. The Yankees' bullpen ranks ten spots ahead of Cincinnati's.
As a bonus, Lyon Richardson has pitched in two consecutive days, so he might not grace the mound for the Reds tonight. While he is a rare bright spot in Cincinnati's bullpen and the team's best reliever, Bellinger — who is the only Yankee to have faced Richardson — has hit two home runs in two at-bats against him.
Best Bet: Yankees ML at -120 with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, June 23, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field
Bryan Woo
Seattle starts Bryan Woo tonight.
Woo's strong reputation explains why the Mariners are favored away from home.
But Woo has been rather shaky both on the road, where his ERA is almost twice as high as his home ERA, and in June, where his ERA is more than twice as high as his season-long ERA.
Overall, Woo is not as good as he was last year. In particular, his command has declined.
Woo vs. Twins Batters
The data sample is small, but Minnesota's lineup collectively slugs .485 with Woo on the mound.
It is not justifiable to dismiss this statistic, because it must be expected given the extent to which the Twins match up well against Woo.
They are one of the better teams at slugging his pitches. Moreover, they benefit from the fact that Woo is a fly ball-inducing pitcher, as evident in their stronger play against this type of pitcher as opposed to ground-ball inducing pitchers.
These matchup factors indicate that they will build their already superbly promising track record against Woo.
Mariners' Let-Down Spot
Tonight's game is not one in which Woo can expect to receive much run support.
His team's offense exploded yesterday for 14 runs, positioning it in a let-down spot tonight.
When the Mariners scored eight runs on June 17, for example, they scored one on the following day. When they scored nine on May 27, they were shut out on May 28.
Except against terrible starting pitchers and when they benefited from errors from the defense, they consistently suffer a tremendous decline in run production in the game following one in which their offense thrived anomalously.
Minnesota's Starter Today
Bailey Ober, who starts for the Twins tonight, will make life too difficult for Seattle's lineup.
Ober's ERA in his last start might seem to suggest that his form is poor, but this is incorrect. He was victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His strong FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed well and thus enjoys good form.
The in-form Ober will be glad to face Seattle's lineup, especially given the latter's let-down spot. The Mariners already struggle with Ober on the mound, collectively slugging .385 against him, with more strikeouts than hits.
Best Bet: Twins First-Five ML at +116 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, June 23, 2025 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium
Boston's Struggling Starter
Walker Buehler starts for the Red Sox tonight.
Buehler is not the pitcher he once was. This is most obvious now and especially on the road. In his last three road starts, he allowed five earned runs in Atlanta, five earned runs in Yankee Stadium, and eight earned runs in Seattle.
His command has mostly been terrible. In addition to allowing too many walks, opposing batters are more easily belting home runs off him.
Overall, his road ERA is 9.23.
Angels batters already love facing Buehler, even though they were seeing a better version of the once well-reputed starter. Collectively, they slug .656 against him. Seven different Angels batters slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
Clear Edge
Los Angeles starter Jack Kochanowicz will easily secure a lead for his team through five innings if he limits the Red Sox to two earned runs, which is the total to which he held each of his last two opponents.
His outlook today is particularly strong because he matches up well against Boston's batters. They rank 23rd with a .385 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
This matchup factor solidifies the value in the Angels as a first-five play.
Best Bet: Angels First-Five ML at -113 with BetOnline
