MLB Bet or Fade for June 12: Houston, We Have a Problem
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at American Family Field
Sonny Weather for St. Louis
Sonny Gray is just the pitcher St. Louis needs to help it out of its ongoing losing streak.
It might seem tempting to ride the Cardinals' losing streak, but they are primed to turn things around. They've had to face good teams with good pitching, and they've lost very tight games.
With the matchup in their favor, they have a great outlook, especially because they will bring extra focus in order to win again.
Gray is a reliable winner: he is 7-1 so far. He has won both of his last two starts.
In those starts, he allowed zero runs in a combined total of 13.1 innings against the Rangers and Dodgers.
Gray vs. Brewers Batters
Gray matches up well against Milwaukee's batters.
Against his favorite pitches from righties, Milwaukee ranks dead-last with a .339 slugging rate.
While bettors want to fade the Cardinals because of their losing streak, it is actually the Brewers who have continued to look bad — and worse than the Cards — lately.
The Brewers have failed to exceed two runs in in four of their last six games.
Their cold lineup will really struggle to hit a pitcher who it matches up so poorly against.
Milwaukee's New Starter
Making his professional debut, Jacob Misiorowski starts for the Brewers today.
The hype is big. He is regarded as Milwaukee's top pitching prospect. Media heads are writing very positive articles about him.
It is true that he has nice stuff. But this is trivially true: any pitcher who reaches the majors has nice stuff. The key is command.
Misiorowski lacks the command to succeed at the professional level right now. In Triple-A, he averages 4.41 walks per nine innings. This can only get worse when he faces major league batters who obviously have a better eye for strikes and balls than Triple-A ones and who are better able to take advantage of their eye.
Crucial Advantage for St. Louis' Lineup
In addition to struggling with his command, Misiorowski's stuff will appear completely unimpressive today.
He relies heavily on a high-velo fastball. This is a pitch that looks nice on paper, but the Cardinals are well-prepared to handle it.
They rank sixth with a .458 slugging rate against a 95-100mph fastball from righties.
So, Misiorowski will be a complete failure today. St. Louis' focused lineup will thrive today. I don't like its bullpen, but with its tremendous starting pitcher edge it will lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Cardinals First-Five -0.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field
Andrew Heaney at Night
Pittsburgh starts Andrew Heaney tonight.
A night game means bad news for Heaney, and it's always meant this.
This year, Heaney is 2-1 with a 2.36 ERA during the day. At night, he is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA.
This season-long day-night disparity aligns with his career-long disparity: relative to day games, at night his winning percentage drops 15 percent and his ERA rises 1.17.
Heaney vs. Cubs Batters
Even if this were a day game, the outlook would still be bad for Heaney.
He is a lefty who heavily relies on a fastball. The Cubs rank tenth with a .459 slugging rate against this pitch from lefties.
Their comfort with fastballs from lefties helps explain why they hit Heaney so well: with him on the mound, their collective slugging rate is .545.
Seven different Cubs batters slug .500 or better against him. So many different ones will contribute to a strong Cubs victory tonight, which will be supported by a bullpen that has been elite in June with a 0.91 ERA.
Jameson Taillon
The Cubs start Jameson Taillon today, who comes into this game having allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his last four games.
He will ensure that his team will not need to rely too much on its bullpen.
Collectively, with all of one home run in 93 at-bats, the Pirates slug .366 against him. They will bring their worst version of themselves today on the road, where they are distinctly bad. They are the third-worst hitting team in road games.
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Bounce-Back Spot
The following trend shows that the White Sox are learning how to win: they are 3-0 in their last three games that followed a loss.
Those three wins came against the Tigers (twice) and the Astros.
Bettors establish in their mind that certain teams are bad and worth fading, but one has to know that things change because teams try to improve. Nobody likes to lose, and teams like the Rockies and White Sox are therefore learning how to win.
Davis Martin
The White Sox have a strong outlook today with Davis Martin on the mound.
Martin has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
His one other start against Houston appeared to go poorly based on his ERA, but he was the victim of a very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was close to 2.00 lower than his ERA in that start.
His outlook today is especially strong because he matches up well against Houston's batters, which along with his solid form justifies positive expectations for him today. The Astros rank 26th with a .375 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Outlook for Framber Valdez
Houston starts Framber Valdez today.
Valdez's numbers against White Sox batters are skewed by fellow lefty Andrew Benintendi's struggles against him.
Four different White Sox batter slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
Overall, the White Sox are easily one of the better teams against his favorite pitches from lefties.
With their bullpen strongly improved in June, they are well-equipped to bounce back strongly today.
Best Bet: White Sox +1.5 at +101 with BetOnline
Game I Am Passing On
I am passing on Yankees/Royals. I thought it would be simple to fade Kansas City starter Seth Lugo given the track record that Yankees batters enjoy against him.
However, New York starter Will Warren has been awful lately, allowing a combined total of eleven runs in his last two games.
Kansas City has built a terrific track record in series finales this year, so the Royals make for a tempting underdog with Warren on the mound.
But the other games I like feature more trustworthy starting pitchers.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at American Family Field
Sonny Weather for St. Louis
Sonny Gray is just the pitcher St. Louis needs to help it out of its ongoing losing streak.
It might seem tempting to ride the Cardinals' losing streak, but they are primed to turn things around. They've had to face good teams with good pitching, and they've lost very tight games.
With the matchup in their favor, they have a great outlook, especially because they will bring extra focus in order to win again.
Gray is a reliable winner: he is 7-1 so far. He has won both of his last two starts.
In those starts, he allowed zero runs in a combined total of 13.1 innings against the Rangers and Dodgers.
Gray vs. Brewers Batters
Gray matches up well against Milwaukee's batters.
Against his favorite pitches from righties, Milwaukee ranks dead-last with a .339 slugging rate.
While bettors want to fade the Cardinals because of their losing streak, it is actually the Brewers who have continued to look bad — and worse than the Cards — lately.
The Brewers have failed to exceed two runs in in four of their last six games.
Their cold lineup will really struggle to hit a pitcher who it matches up so poorly against.
Milwaukee's New Starter
Making his professional debut, Jacob Misiorowski starts for the Brewers today.
The hype is big. He is regarded as Milwaukee's top pitching prospect. Media heads are writing very positive articles about him.
It is true that he has nice stuff. But this is trivially true: any pitcher who reaches the majors has nice stuff. The key is command.
Misiorowski lacks the command to succeed at the professional level right now. In Triple-A, he averages 4.41 walks per nine innings. This can only get worse when he faces major league batters who obviously have a better eye for strikes and balls than Triple-A ones and who are better able to take advantage of their eye.
Crucial Advantage for St. Louis' Lineup
In addition to struggling with his command, Misiorowski's stuff will appear completely unimpressive today.
He relies heavily on a high-velo fastball. This is a pitch that looks nice on paper, but the Cardinals are well-prepared to handle it.
They rank sixth with a .458 slugging rate against a 95-100mph fastball from righties.
So, Misiorowski will be a complete failure today. St. Louis' focused lineup will thrive today. I don't like its bullpen, but with its tremendous starting pitcher edge it will lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Cardinals First-Five -0.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field
Andrew Heaney at Night
Pittsburgh starts Andrew Heaney tonight.
A night game means bad news for Heaney, and it's always meant this.
This year, Heaney is 2-1 with a 2.36 ERA during the day. At night, he is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA.
This season-long day-night disparity aligns with his career-long disparity: relative to day games, at night his winning percentage drops 15 percent and his ERA rises 1.17.
Heaney vs. Cubs Batters
Even if this were a day game, the outlook would still be bad for Heaney.
He is a lefty who heavily relies on a fastball. The Cubs rank tenth with a .459 slugging rate against this pitch from lefties.
Their comfort with fastballs from lefties helps explain why they hit Heaney so well: with him on the mound, their collective slugging rate is .545.
Seven different Cubs batters slug .500 or better against him. So many different ones will contribute to a strong Cubs victory tonight, which will be supported by a bullpen that has been elite in June with a 0.91 ERA.
Jameson Taillon
The Cubs start Jameson Taillon today, who comes into this game having allowed a combined total of five earned runs in his last four games.
He will ensure that his team will not need to rely too much on its bullpen.
Collectively, with all of one home run in 93 at-bats, the Pirates slug .366 against him. They will bring their worst version of themselves today on the road, where they are distinctly bad. They are the third-worst hitting team in road games.
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, June 12, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Bounce-Back Spot
The following trend shows that the White Sox are learning how to win: they are 3-0 in their last three games that followed a loss.
Those three wins came against the Tigers (twice) and the Astros.
Bettors establish in their mind that certain teams are bad and worth fading, but one has to know that things change because teams try to improve. Nobody likes to lose, and teams like the Rockies and White Sox are therefore learning how to win.
Davis Martin
The White Sox have a strong outlook today with Davis Martin on the mound.
Martin has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
His one other start against Houston appeared to go poorly based on his ERA, but he was the victim of a very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was close to 2.00 lower than his ERA in that start.
His outlook today is especially strong because he matches up well against Houston's batters, which along with his solid form justifies positive expectations for him today. The Astros rank 26th with a .375 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Outlook for Framber Valdez
Houston starts Framber Valdez today.
Valdez's numbers against White Sox batters are skewed by fellow lefty Andrew Benintendi's struggles against him.
Four different White Sox batter slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
Overall, the White Sox are easily one of the better teams against his favorite pitches from lefties.
With their bullpen strongly improved in June, they are well-equipped to bounce back strongly today.
Best Bet: White Sox +1.5 at +101 with BetOnline
Game I Am Passing On
I am passing on Yankees/Royals. I thought it would be simple to fade Kansas City starter Seth Lugo given the track record that Yankees batters enjoy against him.
However, New York starter Will Warren has been awful lately, allowing a combined total of eleven runs in his last two games.
Kansas City has built a terrific track record in series finales this year, so the Royals make for a tempting underdog with Warren on the mound.
But the other games I like feature more trustworthy starting pitchers.
