MLB Bet or Fade for June 2: Undervalued Teams Are Improving Their Pitching
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, June 2, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park
The Improved German Marquez
For Colorado, German Marquez starts today.
It is easy to dismiss Marquez when you look at his ERA. However, season-long statistics become less credible as the long season progresses.
Sure, Marquez has had some terrible starts during the course of this season. However, at this moment in time, he is pitching really well.
In his last two starts, he limited the Phillies to one earned run in seven innings before allowing two earned runs in six innings against the Cubs.
Marquez vs. Marlins Batters
Marquez's performance against the Phillies was impressive because it took place in high-altitude Denver.
His success in Wrigley Field is impressive because the Cubs slug better against his pitches than his opponent today, Miami, does.
At this moment, the Marlins are actually not hitting well at all. They enter today's game having scored a combined total of two runs in their last three games, all of which took place in their home venue.
Miami's Struggling Starter
Colorado has the edge in this matchup because it faces a struggling starting pitcher in Max Meyer, who starts for the Marlins today.
Meyer has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts.
He is having trouble keeping the ball on the ground to the extent that he used to. Opposing batters are finding it easier to resist chasing his pitches outside of the strike zone. They are striking out less often.
With Meyer's decline in quality, even the White Sox are slamming him.
Full-Game Play
Even though Miami is a bad, losing team, the price is cheap for the Rockies run-line.
The narrative is to fade the Rockies at all costs, but a closer look at their recent games shows that their struggles have come in the earlier innings. With Marquez starting today, those early-game struggles won't take place. Since May 26, their bullpen ranks fifth with a 1.80 ERA.
Against Meyer, the Rockies will score some runs.
Oddsmakers are pricing Colorado disrespectfully because of its season-long struggles, but an examination of the here-and-now, whose relevance precludes that of the more distant past, shows that they are really undervaluing the Rockies in this matchup.
Best Bet: Rockies +1.5 at -132 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, June 2, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park
Cincinnati's Matchup Advantage
I see a lot of bettors fade other bettors who give bad reasoning for their plays.
A lot of people look at the ERA of Milwaukee starter Aaron Civale and think it worthwhile to fade him. His 6.00 ERA does look unattractive, but it is largely the product of his start back on March 30 in which he was slammed by the mighty Yankees.
I am not blindly fading Civale today. His outlook is negative because the Reds rank sixth with a .464 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, Brady Singer starts for the Reds, and his outlook is strong today because the Brewers rank 24th with a .388 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Matchup details indicate a clear first-five edge for the Reds.
Revenge Angle
I like the Reds for the full game given their track record in series-opening games against a team that won its last series against them.
On April 7, they won 2-0 in their series-opener in San Francisco against a Giants team that had won their previous three-game series against them
More recently, they avenged a series loss to the Cubs by winning their series opener against them with a score of 6-2 on May 30 at Wrigley Field.
If it feels sufficiently strange to bet twice on the same side, then you can just split a unit on both bets. But these are two separate wagers that both merit a full-unit investment.
Best Bet: Reds First-Five ML at -128 with BetOnline; Reds Full-Game ML at -113 with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Monday, June 2, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Rate Field
Detroit's Starter
Jack Flaherty starts for the Tigers today.
Flaherty's ERA doesn't look very attractive, but this is largely due to a rough stretch that he suffered against AL West teams from April 28 to May 10.
He has clearly moved past those struggles, though. In his last start, he threw six shutout innings in which he held the Giants to two hits.
Flaherty vs. White Sox Batters
Flaherty loves facing the White Sox.
Collectively, they have more than twice as many strikeouts against Flaherty as they do hits. They slug .283 against him.
Last year, he allowed one run in both of his starts against the White Sox. This year, he allowed one run in his one start against them.
With his strong form, he can shut them out tonight.
Chicago's Starter Today
With Flaherty's outlook so solid, bettors are rushing to invest in Detroit in some form.
But the chalk just isn't worth it in this matchup.
Chicago's starter, Jonathan Cannon, deserves more respect than bettors are giving him.
Sure, he's young. But his low walk rate shows that he possesses the command that an MLB pitcher requires to succeed. He belongs here.
His youth is really just evident in his road starts, where he is learning how to succeed.
The youngster loves pitching at home, though, where he has allowed a combined total of two earned runs in three starts.
Detroit has scored a combined total of one run in its last two games, so Cannon will get a more-than-manageable challenge in the form of a struggling Tigers lineup.
Full-Game Play
I like the full-game "under" for this matchup because both bullpens have been great lately.
Since May 27, they both rank sixth-best with a 1.96 ERA.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -120 with BetOnline
Bet I Am Passing On
I have a lean for the Giants-Padres game, but it did not make the cut. San Diego's starter today, Stephen Kolek, might be due for a good start based on his ERA being much higher than his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his last two starts.
But I did not want to go against Giants starter Logan Webb, who is a much better pitcher.
I also did not like Kolek enough to go for an "under" at the low posted total.
My thought was to stick the Padres run-line in a parlay, but I did not find a good parlay partner and I was not very motivated to find one.
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, June 2, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park
The Improved German Marquez
For Colorado, German Marquez starts today.
It is easy to dismiss Marquez when you look at his ERA. However, season-long statistics become less credible as the long season progresses.
Sure, Marquez has had some terrible starts during the course of this season. However, at this moment in time, he is pitching really well.
In his last two starts, he limited the Phillies to one earned run in seven innings before allowing two earned runs in six innings against the Cubs.
Marquez vs. Marlins Batters
Marquez's performance against the Phillies was impressive because it took place in high-altitude Denver.
His success in Wrigley Field is impressive because the Cubs slug better against his pitches than his opponent today, Miami, does.
At this moment, the Marlins are actually not hitting well at all. They enter today's game having scored a combined total of two runs in their last three games, all of which took place in their home venue.
Miami's Struggling Starter
Colorado has the edge in this matchup because it faces a struggling starting pitcher in Max Meyer, who starts for the Marlins today.
Meyer has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts.
He is having trouble keeping the ball on the ground to the extent that he used to. Opposing batters are finding it easier to resist chasing his pitches outside of the strike zone. They are striking out less often.
With Meyer's decline in quality, even the White Sox are slamming him.
Full-Game Play
Even though Miami is a bad, losing team, the price is cheap for the Rockies run-line.
The narrative is to fade the Rockies at all costs, but a closer look at their recent games shows that their struggles have come in the earlier innings. With Marquez starting today, those early-game struggles won't take place. Since May 26, their bullpen ranks fifth with a 1.80 ERA.
Against Meyer, the Rockies will score some runs.
Oddsmakers are pricing Colorado disrespectfully because of its season-long struggles, but an examination of the here-and-now, whose relevance precludes that of the more distant past, shows that they are really undervaluing the Rockies in this matchup.
Best Bet: Rockies +1.5 at -132 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, June 2, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park
Cincinnati's Matchup Advantage
I see a lot of bettors fade other bettors who give bad reasoning for their plays.
A lot of people look at the ERA of Milwaukee starter Aaron Civale and think it worthwhile to fade him. His 6.00 ERA does look unattractive, but it is largely the product of his start back on March 30 in which he was slammed by the mighty Yankees.
I am not blindly fading Civale today. His outlook is negative because the Reds rank sixth with a .464 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, Brady Singer starts for the Reds, and his outlook is strong today because the Brewers rank 24th with a .388 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Matchup details indicate a clear first-five edge for the Reds.
Revenge Angle
I like the Reds for the full game given their track record in series-opening games against a team that won its last series against them.
On April 7, they won 2-0 in their series-opener in San Francisco against a Giants team that had won their previous three-game series against them
More recently, they avenged a series loss to the Cubs by winning their series opener against them with a score of 6-2 on May 30 at Wrigley Field.
If it feels sufficiently strange to bet twice on the same side, then you can just split a unit on both bets. But these are two separate wagers that both merit a full-unit investment.
Best Bet: Reds First-Five ML at -128 with BetOnline; Reds Full-Game ML at -113 with BetOnline
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Monday, June 2, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Rate Field
Detroit's Starter
Jack Flaherty starts for the Tigers today.
Flaherty's ERA doesn't look very attractive, but this is largely due to a rough stretch that he suffered against AL West teams from April 28 to May 10.
He has clearly moved past those struggles, though. In his last start, he threw six shutout innings in which he held the Giants to two hits.
Flaherty vs. White Sox Batters
Flaherty loves facing the White Sox.
Collectively, they have more than twice as many strikeouts against Flaherty as they do hits. They slug .283 against him.
Last year, he allowed one run in both of his starts against the White Sox. This year, he allowed one run in his one start against them.
With his strong form, he can shut them out tonight.
Chicago's Starter Today
With Flaherty's outlook so solid, bettors are rushing to invest in Detroit in some form.
But the chalk just isn't worth it in this matchup.
Chicago's starter, Jonathan Cannon, deserves more respect than bettors are giving him.
Sure, he's young. But his low walk rate shows that he possesses the command that an MLB pitcher requires to succeed. He belongs here.
His youth is really just evident in his road starts, where he is learning how to succeed.
The youngster loves pitching at home, though, where he has allowed a combined total of two earned runs in three starts.
Detroit has scored a combined total of one run in its last two games, so Cannon will get a more-than-manageable challenge in the form of a struggling Tigers lineup.
Full-Game Play
I like the full-game "under" for this matchup because both bullpens have been great lately.
Since May 27, they both rank sixth-best with a 1.96 ERA.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -120 with BetOnline
Bet I Am Passing On
I have a lean for the Giants-Padres game, but it did not make the cut. San Diego's starter today, Stephen Kolek, might be due for a good start based on his ERA being much higher than his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his last two starts.
But I did not want to go against Giants starter Logan Webb, who is a much better pitcher.
I also did not like Kolek enough to go for an "under" at the low posted total.
My thought was to stick the Padres run-line in a parlay, but I did not find a good parlay partner and I was not very motivated to find one.
