MLB Best Bets for April 21: Toronto Is Canada's Pride and Joy
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park
Miami's Matchup Edge
Lefty Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds and relies on four pitches: four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup, and sinker.
Miami matches up well against him, ranking seventh with a .469 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Max Meyer starts for the Marlins. He throws a slider, four-seamer, changeup, sinker, and sweeper.
The Reds rank 21st with a .387 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Cincinnati's Let-Down Spot
Cincinnati's offense is in a uniquely bad spot tonight because it will come crashing down to Earth after scoring 24 runs in its last game.
The Reds had attained double-digit scoring totals on two previous occasions.
They scored 14 runs on March 31 and then were shut out in their following game on April 1.
Most recently, they scored two runs on April 6 after accumulating eleven runs on April 5.
Even going back to last year, such a let-down occured for them on September 15 in Minnesota, on September 5 vs. Houston, and so on.
Their matchup disadvantage against Meyer will be exacerbated by their let-down position.
Best Bet: First-Half Marlins ML at +105 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field
Aaron Nola's Great Spot
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies tonight.
Nola yielded a 10.13 ERA in his last start but only because he was unfortunate to yield an extremely high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while doing a solid job of yielding soft contact and keeping the ball on the ground. His 2.27 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how well he truly performed.
This is a massive disparity between ERA and FIP. When his ERA is so much higher than his FIP in a given game, things tend to balance out in his following game.
Last year when he suffered such a disparity, he allowed zero runs or one run in his following start four out of five times.
With a sub-2.70 FIP in both of his last two starts, he already enters tonight's game in strong form.
Great Spot For Both Pitchers
Even regardless of the circumstances surrounding this matchup, it is a great "under" play in New York's venue.
Nola boasts a 3.28 career ERA in Citi Field.
New York's starter, Tylor Megill, loves facing Philly batters regardless of location, although his best success against them has come at home.
Philly batters slug .279 against him. Bryce Harper, for example, is 2-for-12 with Megill on the mound.
Parlay Leg 1: First-Half Phillies-Mets Under 4.5 at -120 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Atlanta's Pitching Edge
Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Braves batters own Fedde: they slug .676 with him on the mound. Seven different Braves slug at least .500 against him.
St. Louis batters won't find success against Atlanta's Spencer Schwellenbach, who has allowed one run in 14 innings thus far at home despite facing competition that is comparable in difficulty to what he'll face tonight.
Location Matters
Frankly, the Cardinals are worth fading whenever they play on the road. They are 1-9 away from home.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has won three in a row with all three wins taking place in Atlanta.
The Braves always have high ambitions. After a slow start, they are cruising as they are eager to get to .500.
Parlay Leg 2: Braves ML at -176 with BetOnline
Parlay: First-Half Phillies-Mets Under 4.5 (-120) & Braves ML (-176) at +187 with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Outlook for Toronto's Starter
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays today.
His outlook is great against a Houston lineup that bats .171 and slugs .395 against him.
It makes sense for them to struggle with him on the mound because they rank 28th with a .293 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Toronto's Batters and Bullpen
Ernie Clement, Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander, and George Springer all hit Houston starter Hunter Brown well.
Bo Bichette is sizzling right now and Vlad Guerrero Jr. poses a threat against anybody.
Toronto's bullpen will secure the lead that its batters procure because its top relievers — including Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Brendon Little, and Chad Green — are fresh tonight.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at +121 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park
Miami's Matchup Edge
Lefty Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds and relies on four pitches: four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup, and sinker.
Miami matches up well against him, ranking seventh with a .469 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Max Meyer starts for the Marlins. He throws a slider, four-seamer, changeup, sinker, and sweeper.
The Reds rank 21st with a .387 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Cincinnati's Let-Down Spot
Cincinnati's offense is in a uniquely bad spot tonight because it will come crashing down to Earth after scoring 24 runs in its last game.
The Reds had attained double-digit scoring totals on two previous occasions.
They scored 14 runs on March 31 and then were shut out in their following game on April 1.
Most recently, they scored two runs on April 6 after accumulating eleven runs on April 5.
Even going back to last year, such a let-down occured for them on September 15 in Minnesota, on September 5 vs. Houston, and so on.
Their matchup disadvantage against Meyer will be exacerbated by their let-down position.
Best Bet: First-Half Marlins ML at +105 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field
Aaron Nola's Great Spot
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies tonight.
Nola yielded a 10.13 ERA in his last start but only because he was unfortunate to yield an extremely high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while doing a solid job of yielding soft contact and keeping the ball on the ground. His 2.27 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how well he truly performed.
This is a massive disparity between ERA and FIP. When his ERA is so much higher than his FIP in a given game, things tend to balance out in his following game.
Last year when he suffered such a disparity, he allowed zero runs or one run in his following start four out of five times.
With a sub-2.70 FIP in both of his last two starts, he already enters tonight's game in strong form.
Great Spot For Both Pitchers
Even regardless of the circumstances surrounding this matchup, it is a great "under" play in New York's venue.
Nola boasts a 3.28 career ERA in Citi Field.
New York's starter, Tylor Megill, loves facing Philly batters regardless of location, although his best success against them has come at home.
Philly batters slug .279 against him. Bryce Harper, for example, is 2-for-12 with Megill on the mound.
Parlay Leg 1: First-Half Phillies-Mets Under 4.5 at -120 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Atlanta's Pitching Edge
Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals tonight.
Braves batters own Fedde: they slug .676 with him on the mound. Seven different Braves slug at least .500 against him.
St. Louis batters won't find success against Atlanta's Spencer Schwellenbach, who has allowed one run in 14 innings thus far at home despite facing competition that is comparable in difficulty to what he'll face tonight.
Location Matters
Frankly, the Cardinals are worth fading whenever they play on the road. They are 1-9 away from home.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has won three in a row with all three wins taking place in Atlanta.
The Braves always have high ambitions. After a slow start, they are cruising as they are eager to get to .500.
Parlay Leg 2: Braves ML at -176 with BetOnline
Parlay: First-Half Phillies-Mets Under 4.5 (-120) & Braves ML (-176) at +187 with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Monday, April 21, 2025 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park
Outlook for Toronto's Starter
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays today.
His outlook is great against a Houston lineup that bats .171 and slugs .395 against him.
It makes sense for them to struggle with him on the mound because they rank 28th with a .293 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Toronto's Batters and Bullpen
Ernie Clement, Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander, and George Springer all hit Houston starter Hunter Brown well.
Bo Bichette is sizzling right now and Vlad Guerrero Jr. poses a threat against anybody.
Toronto's bullpen will secure the lead that its batters procure because its top relievers — including Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Brendon Little, and Chad Green — are fresh tonight.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at +121 with BetOnline
