MLB Best Bets for April 6: Some Underdogs Have Unbelievable Value Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
Philadelphia Lineup's Matchup Edge
The Phillies are great underdogs today because they are primed to do damage to Los Angeles' starter.
L.A. starts Tyler Glasnow today with his heavy reliance on a four-seamer, curveball, and slider. These pitches combine to make up about 95 percent of his arsenal.
The Phillies rank fifth with a superb .580 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
The Dodgers Are Not Invincible
Yes, the Dodgers are, overall, probably the best team in baseball.
But we're focused on today and not on what we think to be the case overall.
Today, the Dodgers face a left-handed pitcher. Their lineup is vulnerable to left-handed pitchers, batting .188 and slugging .375 against them.
Philadelphia's southpaw today is Cristopher Sanchez. He relies heavily on a sinker-changeup combo.
Los Angeles slugs .345 against these pitches from lefties.
Takeaway
Matchup details favor the Phillies even though they are the underdog.
Best Bet: First-Half Phillies ML (+103) at BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
Chicago's Starter
The White Sox are heavy underdogs in this game because of the negative perception that people have of their team.
Yes, the White Sox have lost a lot of games.
But Martin Perez starts for them only rarely. Let the White Sox lose lots of games where he doesn't start, so that they have more betting value when Perez starts, which is when they have the best chance of winning.
Perez is a highly capable pitcher who performed excellently during Spring Training — where he finished with 2.25 ERA — and then carried that success into the regular season in which he threw six shutout, no-hit innings in his first start.
Perez vs. Tigers Batters
Even forgetting about his strong form, Perez's outlook is strong today because of his track record against Detroit batters.
In combined 84 at-bats, they hit .214 and slug .310 against him.
Jackson Jobe
Detroit starts youngster Jackson Jobe.
Whereas Perez is a veteran who has things figured out, Jobe is a youngster making his second career start.
Jobe, in his rawness, just faced and struggled against a weak Seattle lineup. In particular, he continues to struggle to put batters away. He can get them to two strikes sometimes, but that is only 66 percent of the strikes that he needs to attain.
In that start, he allowed three earned runs in four innings, amounting to a 6.75 ERA that actually belies how poorly he truly performed. His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 10.92.
With Jobe going against Perez, the White Sox clearly own the starting pitcher advantage, and yet we can get their run-line at plus odds.
Best Bet: First-Half White Sox RL (+0.5) at +115 at BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Houston's Starter
Ronel Blanco starts for the Astros today.
In his last start, he yielded an unimpressive-looking 5.40 ERA.
His ERA conceals the true quality of his performance, which is evident in his 2.32 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Blanco's Matchup
This is a great matchup for Blanco to showcase his true quality in.
His arsenal consists in a slider, four-seam fastball, curveball, and changeup.
His outlook is great against a Twins lineup that ranks 26th with a .298 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Minnesota's Starter
Chris Paddack starts for the Twins today.
I just don't understand why the Twins are favored with him as their starting pitcher. He hasn't been good since 2019.
Last season, he struggled especially out of the gate, yielding a 5.88 ERA in March/April.
This season, he is starting slow once again. He allowed nine earned runs in 3.1 innings to the White Sox in his first start.
His changeup, for example, was slammed. It suffered a big drop in spin rate that apparently reduced its quality. Yet he doesn't have many other pitches to try to lean on — he throws a fastball nearly half the time.
Houston's batters won't see quality pitches from Paddack today, making it easy for them to score enough runs for Blanco.
Best Bet: First-Half Astros ML (-102) at BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium
Baltimore's Starter
Cade Povich starts for the Orioles today.
Povich's ERA was ugly in his last start, but he actually performed superbly well, as evident in his 0.61 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
He did a superb job of yielding soft contact but, unfortunately for him, yielded a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His outlook is excellent today against a Kansas City lineup that, as it did last year, continues to struggle against his pitches. The Royals slug .167 against his pitches from lefties.
Baltimore's Lineup
The Orioles cannot string together multiple good performances.
After a win, they scored two runs in Toronto, one run in Toronto, and zero runs against Boston.
They thus average one run in the game that directly follows a win.
Even if they weren't in a bad spot in this game today that follows their win yesterday, they slug .240 against the pitches of today's Royal starter, Kris Bubic, from lefties.
Like the Royals, they will struggle to score runs.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -120 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
Philadelphia Lineup's Matchup Edge
The Phillies are great underdogs today because they are primed to do damage to Los Angeles' starter.
L.A. starts Tyler Glasnow today with his heavy reliance on a four-seamer, curveball, and slider. These pitches combine to make up about 95 percent of his arsenal.
The Phillies rank fifth with a superb .580 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
The Dodgers Are Not Invincible
Yes, the Dodgers are, overall, probably the best team in baseball.
But we're focused on today and not on what we think to be the case overall.
Today, the Dodgers face a left-handed pitcher. Their lineup is vulnerable to left-handed pitchers, batting .188 and slugging .375 against them.
Philadelphia's southpaw today is Cristopher Sanchez. He relies heavily on a sinker-changeup combo.
Los Angeles slugs .345 against these pitches from lefties.
Takeaway
Matchup details favor the Phillies even though they are the underdog.
Best Bet: First-Half Phillies ML (+103) at BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 1:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
Chicago's Starter
The White Sox are heavy underdogs in this game because of the negative perception that people have of their team.
Yes, the White Sox have lost a lot of games.
But Martin Perez starts for them only rarely. Let the White Sox lose lots of games where he doesn't start, so that they have more betting value when Perez starts, which is when they have the best chance of winning.
Perez is a highly capable pitcher who performed excellently during Spring Training — where he finished with 2.25 ERA — and then carried that success into the regular season in which he threw six shutout, no-hit innings in his first start.
Perez vs. Tigers Batters
Even forgetting about his strong form, Perez's outlook is strong today because of his track record against Detroit batters.
In combined 84 at-bats, they hit .214 and slug .310 against him.
Jackson Jobe
Detroit starts youngster Jackson Jobe.
Whereas Perez is a veteran who has things figured out, Jobe is a youngster making his second career start.
Jobe, in his rawness, just faced and struggled against a weak Seattle lineup. In particular, he continues to struggle to put batters away. He can get them to two strikes sometimes, but that is only 66 percent of the strikes that he needs to attain.
In that start, he allowed three earned runs in four innings, amounting to a 6.75 ERA that actually belies how poorly he truly performed. His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 10.92.
With Jobe going against Perez, the White Sox clearly own the starting pitcher advantage, and yet we can get their run-line at plus odds.
Best Bet: First-Half White Sox RL (+0.5) at +115 at BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field
Houston's Starter
Ronel Blanco starts for the Astros today.
In his last start, he yielded an unimpressive-looking 5.40 ERA.
His ERA conceals the true quality of his performance, which is evident in his 2.32 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Blanco's Matchup
This is a great matchup for Blanco to showcase his true quality in.
His arsenal consists in a slider, four-seam fastball, curveball, and changeup.
His outlook is great against a Twins lineup that ranks 26th with a .298 slugging rate against these pitches from righties.
Minnesota's Starter
Chris Paddack starts for the Twins today.
I just don't understand why the Twins are favored with him as their starting pitcher. He hasn't been good since 2019.
Last season, he struggled especially out of the gate, yielding a 5.88 ERA in March/April.
This season, he is starting slow once again. He allowed nine earned runs in 3.1 innings to the White Sox in his first start.
His changeup, for example, was slammed. It suffered a big drop in spin rate that apparently reduced its quality. Yet he doesn't have many other pitches to try to lean on — he throws a fastball nearly half the time.
Houston's batters won't see quality pitches from Paddack today, making it easy for them to score enough runs for Blanco.
Best Bet: First-Half Astros ML (-102) at BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Sunday, April 6, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium
Baltimore's Starter
Cade Povich starts for the Orioles today.
Povich's ERA was ugly in his last start, but he actually performed superbly well, as evident in his 0.61 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
He did a superb job of yielding soft contact but, unfortunately for him, yielded a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His outlook is excellent today against a Kansas City lineup that, as it did last year, continues to struggle against his pitches. The Royals slug .167 against his pitches from lefties.
Baltimore's Lineup
The Orioles cannot string together multiple good performances.
After a win, they scored two runs in Toronto, one run in Toronto, and zero runs against Boston.
They thus average one run in the game that directly follows a win.
Even if they weren't in a bad spot in this game today that follows their win yesterday, they slug .240 against the pitches of today's Royal starter, Kris Bubic, from lefties.
Like the Royals, they will struggle to score runs.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -120 with BetOnline
