MLB Bet or Fade for May 12: The King Is Pitching Tonight
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
Tanner Houck
Boston starts Tanner Houck today.
Houck looks easy to dismiss because of his poor ERA, but if you judge him by his ERA then you are letting one start define him. His ERA is inflated by a single start, nearly a month ago, in which he allowed eleven earned runs in 2.1 innings.
Since then, his form has improved strongly. He has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts, which took place against Toronto and Texas, respectively.
Houck vs. Tigers Batters
Tonight, Houck's outlook is particularly strong because of his track record against Detroit batters.
They collectively own a .316 slugging rate against him.
Spencer Torkelson, for example, is 1-for-5 with two strikeouts with him on the mound.
Detroit's Starter
Jackson Jobe starts for the Tigers tonight.
In his second professional season, Jobe very much remains a developing pitcher. Most notably, he still struggles to miss bats. He has difficulty getting outs because batters more easily make contact with his pitches.
His last two starts highlight his ongoing troubles. In these starts, he has allowed a combined total of nine earned runs while facing the Astros and Rockies, respectively.
Jobe's Outlook Tonight
Boston's batters will ensure that Jobe continues to struggle.
They match up well against him, ranking ninth in slugging against his pitches from righties.
With their matchup advantage, they will help their team lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Red Sox First-Half ML at -102 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
The Surprising Matthew Liberatore
Tonight, Matthew Liberatore starts for St. Louis.
If you are still down on this pitcher, then you haven't been paying attention.
Before this season, he struggled to perform well. He bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen, failing to establish a stable place for himself.
This year, he has become an excellent starter. Relative to previous seasons, he is striking out more batters, walking fewer of them, and allowing fewer home runs. He is harder to score on. His ERA is great, and his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is even better at 2.34.
Liberatore vs. Phillies Batters
Liberatore's track record is solid against Philly batters even though this track record is constructed by their at-bats against a worse version of him.
Overall, they slug .302 against him. With him on the mound, they've accumulated 20 strikeouts to ten hits.
Bryce Harper, for example, is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts against him.
Outlook for Philadelphia's Starter
Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies today.
Sanchez is coming off a terrific outing in which he allowed one hit and zero runs in six innings in Tampa Bay.
Indeed, he is consistently solid. In seven of his starts thus far, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of them.
His outlook is great against a St. Louis lineup that ranks 22nd with a .321 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
He will help ensure that tonight's game stays low-scoring through five innings.
Best Bet: Cardinals-Phillies 1H Under 4.5 at -114 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Trust Washington's Starter
Jake Irvin starts for the Nationals today.
Irvin is a big underdog today but only because oddsmakers fail to account for his track record and matchup details against Atlanta's lineup.
Braves batters struggle to hit him, slugging .361 and accumulating more strikeouts than hits with him on the mound.
They must be expected to struggle when he pitches because they are one of the worst teams at hitting his favorite pitches from righties.
Atlanta's Shaky Starter
Grant Holmes starts for the Braves tonight.
Holmes is impossible to trust, especially as a favorite, nowadays.
One reason is that he can't keep the ball in the ballpark. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts. In these starts, he has allowed a combined total of six home runs as well as twelve earned runs.
Washington's Matchup Advantage
The Nationals make for a great bet because their lineup must be expected to thrive today.
They rank sixth with a .457 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
While the Nationals will win, they are dogged so heavily that their run-line comes at a decent price. Given these prices, I like the idea of placing the Nats run-line — so that we can get a free run — in a parlay with a heavy favorite.
Parlay Leg 1: Nationals +1.5 at -137 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Petco Park
San Diego's Matchup Advantage
The Padres have a big advantage with Michael King starting for them.
King, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts thus far, is vastly more consistent and thus more reliable than his Angels' counterpart.
Yusei Kikuchi starts for Los Angeles tonight. His outlook is particularly negative against a San Diego lineup that slugs .667 against him.
Conversely, the Angels slug .100 against King. While the data sample comprises only 30 at-bats, they rank 24th with a .372 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties even though they normally face pitchers who throw inferior versions of those pitches.
With San Diego having one of baseball's best bullpens, it is justifiably a heavy favorite tonight.
Parlay Leg 2: Padres ML at -214 with BetOnline
Parlay: Nationals RL (-137) & Padres ML (-214) at +154 with BetOnline
Bets I Am Passing On
There are bets that I am tempted to place but that I will avoid.
I wanted to back Colorado starter Chase Dollander because the Rangers are awful against his pitches.
However, Dollander is not trustworthy. His 7.71 ERA says it all. Even if his matchup is favorable, he might allow a lot of runs, as he did in his last start. You just don't know with him.
For match-up-related reasons, I also wanted to like Seattle's lineup today. But the Mariners' bats are cold. So let's stay away from them.
They face a Yankees team that is coming off an explosive outing. It's hard to dislike its lineup, but I don't like to back a team that produced ten or more runs in its previous game, because I find that such teams often suffer a let-down in their following game.
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park
Tanner Houck
Boston starts Tanner Houck today.
Houck looks easy to dismiss because of his poor ERA, but if you judge him by his ERA then you are letting one start define him. His ERA is inflated by a single start, nearly a month ago, in which he allowed eleven earned runs in 2.1 innings.
Since then, his form has improved strongly. He has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts, which took place against Toronto and Texas, respectively.
Houck vs. Tigers Batters
Tonight, Houck's outlook is particularly strong because of his track record against Detroit batters.
They collectively own a .316 slugging rate against him.
Spencer Torkelson, for example, is 1-for-5 with two strikeouts with him on the mound.
Detroit's Starter
Jackson Jobe starts for the Tigers tonight.
In his second professional season, Jobe very much remains a developing pitcher. Most notably, he still struggles to miss bats. He has difficulty getting outs because batters more easily make contact with his pitches.
His last two starts highlight his ongoing troubles. In these starts, he has allowed a combined total of nine earned runs while facing the Astros and Rockies, respectively.
Jobe's Outlook Tonight
Boston's batters will ensure that Jobe continues to struggle.
They match up well against him, ranking ninth in slugging against his pitches from righties.
With their matchup advantage, they will help their team lead through five innings.
Best Bet: Red Sox First-Half ML at -102 with BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
The Surprising Matthew Liberatore
Tonight, Matthew Liberatore starts for St. Louis.
If you are still down on this pitcher, then you haven't been paying attention.
Before this season, he struggled to perform well. He bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen, failing to establish a stable place for himself.
This year, he has become an excellent starter. Relative to previous seasons, he is striking out more batters, walking fewer of them, and allowing fewer home runs. He is harder to score on. His ERA is great, and his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is even better at 2.34.
Liberatore vs. Phillies Batters
Liberatore's track record is solid against Philly batters even though this track record is constructed by their at-bats against a worse version of him.
Overall, they slug .302 against him. With him on the mound, they've accumulated 20 strikeouts to ten hits.
Bryce Harper, for example, is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts against him.
Outlook for Philadelphia's Starter
Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies today.
Sanchez is coming off a terrific outing in which he allowed one hit and zero runs in six innings in Tampa Bay.
Indeed, he is consistently solid. In seven of his starts thus far, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of them.
His outlook is great against a St. Louis lineup that ranks 22nd with a .321 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
He will help ensure that tonight's game stays low-scoring through five innings.
Best Bet: Cardinals-Phillies 1H Under 4.5 at -114 with BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park
Trust Washington's Starter
Jake Irvin starts for the Nationals today.
Irvin is a big underdog today but only because oddsmakers fail to account for his track record and matchup details against Atlanta's lineup.
Braves batters struggle to hit him, slugging .361 and accumulating more strikeouts than hits with him on the mound.
They must be expected to struggle when he pitches because they are one of the worst teams at hitting his favorite pitches from righties.
Atlanta's Shaky Starter
Grant Holmes starts for the Braves tonight.
Holmes is impossible to trust, especially as a favorite, nowadays.
One reason is that he can't keep the ball in the ballpark. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts. In these starts, he has allowed a combined total of six home runs as well as twelve earned runs.
Washington's Matchup Advantage
The Nationals make for a great bet because their lineup must be expected to thrive today.
They rank sixth with a .457 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
While the Nationals will win, they are dogged so heavily that their run-line comes at a decent price. Given these prices, I like the idea of placing the Nats run-line — so that we can get a free run — in a parlay with a heavy favorite.
Parlay Leg 1: Nationals +1.5 at -137 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, May 12, 2025 at 7:15 p.m. ET at Petco Park
San Diego's Matchup Advantage
The Padres have a big advantage with Michael King starting for them.
King, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts thus far, is vastly more consistent and thus more reliable than his Angels' counterpart.
Yusei Kikuchi starts for Los Angeles tonight. His outlook is particularly negative against a San Diego lineup that slugs .667 against him.
Conversely, the Angels slug .100 against King. While the data sample comprises only 30 at-bats, they rank 24th with a .372 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties even though they normally face pitchers who throw inferior versions of those pitches.
With San Diego having one of baseball's best bullpens, it is justifiably a heavy favorite tonight.
Parlay Leg 2: Padres ML at -214 with BetOnline
Parlay: Nationals RL (-137) & Padres ML (-214) at +154 with BetOnline
Bets I Am Passing On
There are bets that I am tempted to place but that I will avoid.
I wanted to back Colorado starter Chase Dollander because the Rangers are awful against his pitches.
However, Dollander is not trustworthy. His 7.71 ERA says it all. Even if his matchup is favorable, he might allow a lot of runs, as he did in his last start. You just don't know with him.
For match-up-related reasons, I also wanted to like Seattle's lineup today. But the Mariners' bats are cold. So let's stay away from them.
They face a Yankees team that is coming off an explosive outing. It's hard to dislike its lineup, but I don't like to back a team that produced ten or more runs in its previous game, because I find that such teams often suffer a let-down in their following game.
I didn’t know that trend tho I should prob be a little careful most the futures I bet are at the asb and I look for .500ish teams that I think just been underperforming, had Phillies get there and not win it then had them again the year they let dbacks come back and win that series.
