Monday Nighter Bears / Rams - And A Perspective On This Unpredictable Season So Far

[G-Man]

Its gettting late in the season and I see nothing real encouraging on whats left of it.
I have capped every game no different than any other year and the results have been as bad as could be. My college and pro record has been fractured badly and I had been searching for factors that I could be missing. Nothing mathmatical is evident - and I am still doing what I have always done since 1992.

Many of you here, have had much better records, before this year as well. I would assume that you were all doing "your thing" the same way as you have in the past as well. Some of you may have even won more than usual because of the way things have gone.

I was really looking to bring a ton of winners here on a weekly basis, and that faded quickly after the first 6 weeks in the season. Im sure many of you here feel the same.

We have had a hundred upsets in college and pro games. Its been amazing to say the least. But after all the disappointments, I know what is wrong. Problem is - its a component we cannot cap. Turnovers.

What I can say, is that it skews the mathmatical factors when capping probabilities. Just enough so - that when you feel you have a good play on the dog or favorite, a couple turnovers totally kill not only the spread - but its changes who wins SU.

Yesterday the Ravens won again on 3 KC crucial to's. There was a minimum of a 13 point swing in that one. Subtract that fron Balt and add it to KC and the game finishes. 27-7 at least in favor of KC. Throw in the missed 32 yrd field goal and it's 30-7.
This isnt an excuse for me on any plays but it is a real fact - that we can't cap for it. I could go back and show at least 26 games the where winners with literally less than 5 minutes or less left to play were SU or pointspread winners that lost because of to's. In all the years of capping I have never seen it this bad.

So that brings me to tonights play on the game between Chicago and St. Louis.

Ill be on the Rams +6.5 over Chicago. First of all, Bulger is a very good QB and doesnt throw a lot of interceptions. 7 this year, but he had only a few all of last year. I hope he doesnt have the problem tonight

The Bears on the other hand, have played their last 2 games against NE and Minnesota. The Pats had 5 turnovers themselves and still won. Chicago had 4 turnovers in that loss. But Chicago won against Minnesota because they had 5 turnovers as well and so did the Bears! These games are so out of hand, that you have to be on the team that has the lowest amount of to's for that day or you lose! Forget the way they are supposed to play... its how can they play with turnovers? ( Dont forget this when we start capping the BOWL games.)
Grossman is a bad QB and I dont care if they are playing the weak Rams team. The spread will be covered by turnovers period. Lately the Bears have had nine (9) in their last two games. They suck.

Rams +6.5 SU at Home! Nickle Play. (Im 7-2-1 on Monday nights)

(Oh yeah. -1100 on less than 5 turnovers in this one. Thats a sure loser! J/K...)

To everyone else - good luck, because thats all there seems to be this year. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Here's the results of yesterdays pro games. Scores and turnovers next to each team.

Score To's
Giants 27 - 0
Caro 13 - 6

Cards 27 - 1
Seattle 21 - 3

Ravens 20 - 1
Cheifs 10 - 3

Cincy 27 - 4 (Rare win when T-O 4 times)
Raiders 10 - 2

GB 30 - 0
SF 19 - 3

Minn 30- 2
Det 20 - 6

SD 48 - 1
Den 20 - 1

Bills 31- 1
Jets 13 - 3

Tenn 26 - 2 Rare win.
Hou 20 - 0

Jags 44 - 1
Colts 17- 1

ATL 17 - 1
Tampa 6 - 2

Philly 21 - 1
Wash 19 - 2

Miami 21 - 0
N.Eng 0 - 3

Saints 42 - 0
Dallas 17 - 2

There were only 2 SU winners who had more turnovers. Cincy and Tenn. All the others lost.

 

[Santacapper]

While I think its a tough variable to factor into capping, I disagree that you 'can't' cap them... you cant cap the timing of them withing a tonne of research.

But take for your example the Chiefs / Ravens game.

Ravens are +6 on fumbles lost (6 to 12)
Ravens are +5 on Fumbles (21 to 16)
Kansas City is +2 in Int (8 to 6)

Defensively the Ravens are tops in the league at +16 takeaways to giveaways. Kansas City is +2

Just looking at that, you had to think the Ravens have the edge in turnovers here.

Thats just my opinion.

GL tonight G-man, leaning to the Rams as well:cheers:

 

[G-Man]

While I think its a tough variable to factor into capping, I disagree that you 'can't' cap them... you cant cap the timing of them withing a tonne of research.
Just looking at that, you had to think the Ravens have the edge in turnovers here.

Thats just my opinion.

GL tonight G-man, leaning to the Rams as well:cheers:

Thanks for the response Santa. By the way - what are you sending me for Christmas? haha

Also, I appreciate your opinion.

Actually, contrary to your thought "While I think its a tough variable to factor into capping, I disagree that you 'can't' cap them... you cant cap the timing of them".
I would rather say they cant be capped at all if they cant be expected accurately. Also, there are many points scored off the turnovers, that factor heavily into statistical data, that drives a pointspread as well. Most of which affects outcomes against the spread.

The reality of turnovers is by no means ignored by me while capping plays. But, the outcome has been crucial - as yesterday only TWO teams won who had more turnovers than the opponent.

I have recognized this for more than 15 years and still use it to the same level as always in terms of value. What happened this year to many more games with these variables, is that the bet is lost strictly on that fact. For 15 years before this season, I have those varibles affecting roughly 25% of the plays that changed the winning or losing the bets.

When you looked at capping Balt or KC yesterday, there is nothing from a statistacal standpoint, that showed the spread was wrong on the game. The outcome was irrevelant to the capping factors, not being the turnovers. Those who won on Balt are happy. ( In another game, I won on the Bills but they won by far more than the two teams are playing at. The 3 to's killed the Jets. Without them I may have and I said MAY - have covered but lost SU.)

While your perspective of capping turnovers is true somewhat, no one can count on them in the game.

Therefore, all that anyone with capping intensity can rationally say is, team "A" looks like a good play, but team "B" has been winning games mostly on turnovers. mathmatically and statistically they cant be used to factor betting on them. BUT when the opponent doesnt have big turnover history in this situation, and all other factors look in favor of team "A" like yesterday, then thats what the bet belongs on.

Considering all that, there is light at the end of the tunnel here. It usually pays off in bowl games and playoff runs. Its when teams are statistacally short in potential, and have a high winning percentage in spite of this.

Yesterday a lot of teams lost on these to's. When they get to the playoffs, I make sure they didnt get there on gifts by the opponent.

Since both teams in the KC game have playoff chances, I expected the game to be played clean, and the Ravens to run out of the luck they have had, in at least 4 games they should have lost.

Tonight, turnovers may be the reason someone wins or loses as well.

:shake:

 

[Ichabod]

On the bears tonight but I like your analysis, makes a lot of sense but how do you predict it?

GL tonight

 

[G-Man]

On the bears tonight but I like your analysis, makes a lot of sense but how do you predict it?

GL tonight

Your right Ich.. I cant predict it.

I betting on the fact that SL can score at home and that Bulger is more reliable as a QB than Grossman.. And if the Bears have the same turnover problems thay have had, they will lose SU. If they dont, then they have to outscore a team on their own turf thats putting up 26 pts a game avg on the home field.

The Bears dont look like a high scoring team to me in this road spot, and I see that they have come back down to earth somewhat lately from the way they were winning the first half of the season, and that they are overpriced here in this spot tonight.

 

[Ichabod]

Yeah I agree with you on your points but the only reason I picked the Bears is that they have had 9 TO's the last two games so I am hoping that was a fluke AND the last time I bet against them they laid 41 on San Fran.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great analysis man. Best of luck. The Monday night fader in me wants to hit those Rams but I also know Rex will have best game in awhile.

GL

 

[Free]

I ALSO PICKED RAMS......I THINK IT WILL BE A CLOSE GAME. ALOT OF TEAMS PLAY UP TO THEIR EXPECTATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MNF....BESIDES I LOVE THE HOME DOG ON MN.....GLT US TONIGHT!:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff bro...

My stance for me what always makes football harder its the simple fact you have a great about of info to decipher for many teams . Some think you have a whole week but while you do theres constant market changes(lines moving) and other aspects to look at(injury news , etc..). I noticed you said not here but previously that you had done will in primetime games. I would think thats because you get to focus on or two events instead of like myself shifting from game to game...

I am really not much of a record keeper and I would say generally its been okay this year...1 bad week that I can remember and either grinding weeks where you just scrap out ahead or some real nice profits like 2 weeks ago....

The key to handicapping is there SIMPLY is NO KEY which means there is no system. Its an ever changing scenario and we all need to consistently change our thought process and adapt to what is happening. Today in the NFL especially there is alot of parity we all agree. That parity makes it impossible to look at previous data( even in season) and have an expectation for a future result. Why?? cause there is little consistency going on in the NFL and rather more extremes...teams are playing well below there heads and at times well above there aheads...so averages become meaningless IMo....

Also the salary cap has created teams w/o depth...so something as insignificant for one team like loss of a starting CB can be detrimental to the point it loses a bet for a said team Or the other teams who lose players and just seem to chug along....there just is so much INFO to decipher now because of parity.....

I think the same principles still apply to handicapping but the main goal should always be VALUE...we all have opinions on value..basically its something that is IMO created by misperception..when the market prices something then true value I like to think I can identify it.. I dont bet teams I bet lines....

I know you said you cannot cap turnovers and there direct effect but while generally speaking its a hard task on an indivual team basis maybe it isnt...Week after week certain teams continue to make the same mistakes and those are the things that need to be identified...

Its a long discussion but attempting to start guessing at what will happen is only going to get you going in the wrong direction....

take this game for instance...

You are using Grossman's play and propensity for turnovers as a key. Now there is alot of talk that Grossman will be on a short leash tonite. So does that make your point a viable concern? Honestly I dont have the answer but I think there are bigger keys??

1- The loss of players on Chi defense...what is the effect? One thing STL can do is throw and throw it deep....with so many secondary injuries Vasher , Todd Johnson , Mike Brown is this something it can attack...think Carolina in the playoffs last season for answer..the deeper question is can the STL OL protect Bulger an afford him to the time to make throws....even deeper is Bulgers rib problem a true concern..

2- While StL has been okay versus the pass it has struggled to stop the run. For the most part Thomas Jones has not looked good in road games but that goes just as much on Chi OL which hasnt done a great job of protecting him..

3- Grossman loves throwing it deep but is inconsistent at it.....remember while STL is statisically good at pass defense it also has banged up safities , an injured starting rookie corner and solid CB in Fisher OUT....

So really there is so many little thinsg we cant answer.......Also Chi has played fairly well away but look at who they are playing...Jets , Giants , Pats...teams whose perception is ahead of there play....the danger spot is a team like STL who looks shitty but is perception ahead of there play.....

The bears have basically 4 of 5 games where there offense has nothing to show for it...the bears have been run on at times and STL needs to do that but can there OL protect?? basically if they can protect and open some holes the rams have the offense to score on Chi especially with injuries...so Rams OL play is key...and guess what so is the Bears OL cause they need to give rex time and open holes for TJ...

Basically I have no idea what to expect and would only be guessing at the moment....gun to head I am always game for a DOG...

 

[Cha0s0rB]

Im basically majoring in statistics in college this question "can we predict turnovers" is hardly calculable... I could spend hours trying to find trends, figuring distributions and standard devations but the main problem is the ball has no memory.... one game rex goes out and throws no ints, the next 5..... with the season being so short "only roughly 16 games" the sample data is not enough to even be close to accurate.... ill run some number real fast for ya on the bears and rams....

the bears
Give aways per game 2.467
Take aways per game 3.25

90% confindent level they will have
Between 3.3 and 1.5 Give aways tonight
Between 3.5 and 2.7 Take aways tonight

Rams
Give aways per game 1.33
Take aways per game 2

90% confident level they will have
between 1.7 and .89 give aways
between 2.6 and 1.3 Take aways


Just looking at the numbers i can tell they don't feel right off the bat, and its due to the bears not being a stable team... 0 TO one game, 6 the next, 0 the next, then 5, then 6... etc....

i still need to interpolate my data but i would assume with 90% confidence that Bears will turn the ball over "2-3 atleast" times while the Rams will only turn it over "1-2 atleast" times.....

Later in the year when i have more sample data and find some teams that are actually more "stable" with turnovers on both side of the ball "which is going to be hard to find" these numbers could be much more accurate... but that still doesn't change the fact that the ball has no memory and each game is different with conditions "weather, cheating wife, etc..."

but the numbers still give a some sort of a measuring stick to the crazyness that takes place on the field/court

 

[G-Man]

Good stuff bro...

My stance for me what always makes football harder its the simple fact you have a great amount of info to decipher for many teams . Some think you have a whole week but while you do theres constant market changes(lines moving) and other aspects to look at(injury news , etc..). I noticed you said not here but previously that you had done will in primetime games. I would think thats because you get to focus on or two events instead of like myself shifting from game to game...
..

Its a long discussion but attempting to start guessing at what will happen is only going to get you going in the wrong direction....

take this game for instance...

You are using Grossman's play and propensity for turnovers as a key. Now there is alot of talk that Grossman will be on a short leash tonite. So does that make your point a viable concern? Honestly I dont have the answer but I think there are bigger keys??

1- The loss of players on Chi defense...what is the effect? One thing STL can do is throw and throw it deep....with so many secondary injuries Vasher , Todd Johnson , Mike Brown is this something it can attack...think Carolina in the playoffs last season for answer..the deeper question is can the STL OL protect Bulger an afford him to the time to make throws....even deeper is Bulgers rib problem a true concern..

2- While StL has been okay versus the pass it has struggled to stop the run. For the most part Thomas Jones has not looked good in road games but that goes just as much on Chi OL which hasnt done a great job of protecting him..

3- Grossman loves throwing it deep but is inconsistent at it.....remember while STL is statisically good at pass defense it also has banged up safities , an injured starting rookie corner and solid CB in Fisher OUT....

So really there is so many little thinsg we cant answer.......Also Chi has played fairly well away but look at who they are playing...Jets , Giants , Pats...teams whose perception is ahead of there play....the danger spot is a team like STL who looks shitty but is perception ahead of there play.....

The bears have basically 4 of 5 games where there offense has nothing to show for it...the bears have been run on at times and STL needs to do that but can there OL protect?? basically if they can protect and open some holes the rams have the offense to score on Chi especially with injuries...so Rams OL play is key...and guess what so is the Bears OL cause they need to give rex time and open holes for TJ...

Basically I have no idea what to expect and would only be guessing at the moment....gun to head I am always game for a DOG...

I edited out some of your quote so as to answer just a couple points....

I spend the same amount of time on all the games. As you stated above, "You would think I had more time for capping the night games" . Thats not true for me. I just dont even look at those games until I've played the games before hand on Sunday.

As far as me guessing, with Grossman and Bulger factors , I really don't guess at all. Bulger has proven his whole career he is a good QB. Grossman... with a rock solid defense for 2 seasons, has had more possessions and hardly ever trailed in a game, and still has bad numbers. His ability to come back from being down 2 td's at any time is remote to say the least. Bulger can come from behind with alot more potential to do so than Grossman.

I like your attention to injuries and that ALWAYS plays into the equasion. But its usually moves the pointspread a little unless its a key player in the running game. QB or a few linemen. Dbs have their value as well but if the Rams were up against Joe Montana, I'd be concerned. Grossman is NEVER going to be Joe Cool.

More importantly Sportsnut, I like the fact that you brought more capping stratagies into this thread. There are many great points - and thats a good thing for all the readers to consider. :shake:

Go Rams!

 

[G-Man]

I ALSO PICKED RAMS......I THINK IT WILL BE A CLOSE GAME. ALOT OF TEAMS PLAY UP TO THEIR EXPECTATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MNF....BESIDES I LOVE THE HOME DOG ON MN.....GLT US TONIGHT!:cheers:

To my football friend, FREE. :cheers:

 

[G-Man]

Im basically majoring in statistics in college this question "can we predict turnovers" is hardly calculable... I could spend hours trying to find trends, figuring distributions and standard devations but the main problem is the ball has no memory.... one game rex goes out and throws no ints, the next 5..... with the season being so short "only roughly 16 games" the sample data is not enough to even be close to accurate.... ill run some number real fast for ya on the bears and rams....

I AGREE! But sooner or later, a team will get to the big dance and crumble as a phoney with the championship on the line. Those are the games where the superbowl winner , blows out the loser.

............and don't forget they are 5-2 ATS in night games on astro turf in 2nd week in November in non-confrence away games vs. a left handed QB in the last 40 years when the line is between -5 and 5 coming vs a ranked opponent coming off a SU win as a dog and the total is over 36.5 when there was a NBA game played the night before and the temperature is between 40-70 degrees.

That sounds like a Marc Lawrence trend...if I ever heard one. Hilarious!

 

[Cha0s0rB]

well if i do find such a team vs. team matchups... what do you think a Turnover is worth??? 3.5 points... 4 it depends on Field postion etc... it could be worth 0 or up to 50 depending on the psychology behind the team

 

[G-Man]

well if i do find such a team vs. team matchups... what do you think a Turnover is worth??? 3.5 points... 4 it depends on Field postion etc... it could be worth 0 or up to 50 depending on the psychology behind the team

Turnovers are totally cost effective to me only when you consider which way the team was going to score before the TO - either a TD or FG at least. On the other side - field position is just as deadly when they turn it over on their side of the 50. RED ZONE turnovers are the absolute worst either inside the opponent or your own.

EVERY turnover in fg range is automatically worth 6 points. Every TD because of to's is worth 14 points. Its because of the "swing" factor. If you got a fg because of the turnover, your opponent have to kick 2 to get back the one they gave you and another one that they would have gotten if they didnt give it up. TD's double as well. this applies mostly to to's inside the 35, or the red zone. Two areas where it's likely that a team could score from.

 

[SportsNut]

Just throwing some shit out..

You know what you were doing for some reason I took your Rams play as something that was out of the ordinary for you...which led to the guess comment...didnt mean it the way it sounds..

As for the time issue maybe I said it wrong...I do the same but having a single Thursday game sure makes it easier for me to focus on. After the Sunday slate having just the MNF game is easier for me. I would like to spend the same amount of times on the games but I was trying to say how hard that is for me with so many Sunday games coupled with other sports..I try not to cap on gameday...I want to have all my ducks in arow by them and just act if I see line I like..I guess my point was to me its les distracting with the Primetime game cause I have one focus in that sport..

With injuries I guess my point was it seems it the injuries dont seem serious are the ones to watch...I have examples but I think you get the point...like Springs being so key to Wash defense...missed week 1 and Minny attacked the backups and was really the only offense they generated..

While Gross may never be great...to me its like this..the guy likes to gamble and throw deep..so what will hurt / help his success rate? Injured DB's , poor OL play , and thing syou cant compensate for..

In the end I was only putting points up for the game I wasnt disagreeing...I wont touch this game cause there are 2 many unknowns...like if Grossman sucks will Griese start the 2nd Q or 3 rd Q??

Wish ya luck just chimed in..I owuld play rams or pass..to many injuries IMO..

 

[G-Man]

Just throwing some shit out..

You know what you were doing for some reason I took your Rams play as something that was out of the ordinary for you...which led to the guess comment...didnt mean it the way it sounds..

As for the time issue maybe I said it wrong...I do the same but having a single Thursday game sure makes it easier for me to focus on. After the Sunday slate having just the MNF game is easier for me. I would like to spend the same amount of times on the games but I was trying to say how hard that is for me with so many Sunday games coupled with other sports..I try not to cap on gameday...I want to have all my ducks in arow by them and just act if I see line I like..I guess my point was to me its les distracting with the Primetime game cause I have one focus in that sport..

With injuries I guess my point was it seems it the injuries dont seem serious are the ones to watch...I have examples but I think you get the point...like Springs being so key to Wash defense...missed week 1 and Minny attacked the backups and was really the only offense they generated..

While Gross may never be great...to me its like this..the guy likes to gamble and throw deep..so what will hurt / help his success rate? Injured DB's , poor OL play , and thing syou cant compensate for..

In the end I was only putting points up for the game I wasnt disagreeing...I wont touch this game cause there are 2 many unknowns...like if Grossman sucks will Griese start the 2nd Q or 3 rd Q??

Wish ya luck just chimed in..I owuld play rams or pass..to many injuries IMO..

Sportsnut.. I didnt take any of your opinions and good points offensive. I appreciated the input and it was really good to let other's read into all this info for their own perspectives too. Youre a winner and Ive followed many of your plays and even played some of them after seeing your points.

You are right also if you feel the game is risky with the injuries either way. I cap with factors that fall into the parameters of a play or no play. While we have had many better games to be on - for Monday night, this one still makes the grade for me. Lower than some, but still makes it.

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Just wanted to make sure...the guess word can ruffle feathers IMO..

I am just so undecided about every aspect of this game but this to me sets up alot like the game in Zona...passing alot cause this game has me confused....

BOL..

 

[BetCrimes1984]

If Im not mistaken, the Ravens team of 2000 got more than their fair share of TOs in the playoffs, incl a TEN blocked FG which turned into a Ravens TD via Ray Lewis. That "luck" got them, not TEN, into the AFCCG and ultimately a SB win. But that luck was made by a fantastic defense, and a team who believed in itself.
Any Raven luck being generateed this season, in however many wins you see it as, still comes back to a team's defense and self belief. A hard nosed defense will create fumbles. INTs are another matter, but that still has the QB pressure aspect to it.
Instead of being found out in the playoffs when *their TO rate dries up*, who is to say their TO rate doesnt actually increase as they step it up in playoff atmosphere, and make (or even win) another SB?


My more philosophical position is TOs come for teams who are bringing the greater will to win the game - You make your own luck. Ravens see themselves going deep in the playoffs, I dont believe KC does (they'd be happy to simply be in them). Ravens effort didnt slack for that particular game, so their greater belief won out, and partly manifests in the TO count that decided the game. The fact most teams won who also won the TO count, backs this up. The teams *that got lucky* won the games - or is it the teams who wanted those games more, manifested that greater want via TOs which specifically made the circumstances for their so winning. You may not be able to cap TOs, but I do believe you can cap motivation.

I dont back much football, but its the same in basketball, esp. with 3 pointers. Some teams have nights where they go nuts behind the arc, and from nowhere decide the game. You cant cap teams shooting well beyond their normal 3 average, yet it doesnt happen for no reason. To me the reason is desire/motivation, and finding that is about identifying spots.

 

[SportsNut]

GL GMan....

joined the party with STL 2nd ML +153 (small play)

 

[G-Man]

Bears were the better team and played like it.

Rams played to their potential on offense but there wasnt enough defense against the Bears running game.

Tough loss.

Congrats to Chicago money.

 

[G-Man]

If Im not mistaken, the Ravens team of 2000 got more than their fair share of TOs in the playoffs, incl a TEN blocked FG which turned into a Ravens TD via Ray Lewis. That "luck" got them, not TEN, into the AFCCG and ultimately a SB win. But that luck was made by a fantastic defense, and a team who believed in itself.
Any Raven luck being generateed this season, in however many wins you see it as, still comes back to a team's defense and self belief. A hard nosed defense will create fumbles. INTs are another matter, but that still has the QB pressure aspect to it.
Instead of being found out in the playoffs when *their TO rate dries up*, who is to say their TO rate doesnt actually increase as they step it up in playoff atmosphere, and make (or even win) another SB?


My more philosophical position is TOs come for teams who are bringing the greater will to win the game - You make your own luck. Ravens see themselves going deep in the playoffs, I dont believe KC does (they'd be happy to simply be in them). Ravens effort didnt slack for that particular game, so their greater belief won out, and partly manifests in the TO count that decided the game. The fact most teams won who also won the TO count, backs this up. The teams *that got lucky* won the games - or is it the teams who wanted those games more, manifested that greater want via TOs which specifically made the circumstances for their so winning. You may not be able to cap TOs, but I do believe you can cap motivation.

I dont back much football, but its the same in basketball, esp. with 3 pointers. Some teams have nights where they go nuts behind the arc, and from nowhere decide the game. You cant cap teams shooting well beyond their normal 3 average, yet it doesnt happen for no reason. To me the reason is desire/motivation, and finding that is about identifying spots.

What is TEN?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

TEN = Tennessee