Monday Night Play...

[JumpOnBoard]

Posted NFL Record
Sides: 8-4 +8.65 units
Totals: 0-0
Teasers: 1-4 -0.20 units


Second week in a row w/ a very tight MNF matchup...this one is even tougher than the Jags side last week....once again a play I wouldn't touch w/ a ten foot pole on a full slate...I can't see anyone playing big on either side in this one...small nibble for me.

Side:

ATL -4 (-104)....1 units....1.04/1.00........classic case of situational play vs better team play....ATL is clearly the better team, IMO...hate to fade the emotional angle for NO, but there's nothing to show that NO can stop the run for ATL...they've led the league two years running in rushing offense, and tonight face a team they scored 34 and 31 respectively on last year...every one keeps talking about Brees and Bush and McCallister, but which one is the D Tackle?? No reason to believe they don't go for 150 or more here on the ground and control the clock again....that's the key to the game matchup wise....going to be emotionally draining for New Orleans to boot and should make one tired defense come late third and fourth quarter....

Good luck tonight boys...

:cheers:

 

[bad gambler]

Agree and on it myself, gl bro!

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Good deal bro...hate getting the worst of the line anytime...so it's a small play...strange to see a NFL game bet off of 3..so u know lots of dough on ATL at the number and this one as well...I think it's warranted in this spot though.

 

[Goose]

Like it JOB!!!

 

[SportsNut]

I dont agree this is a situational play with NO in anyway. Its find and great ATL has great rushning yards stats but IMO they are just as USELESS as where NO is ranked against the run. Bottomline is for all there running and rushing yards they have scored 20 and 14 against two defenses that are solid but not top tier IMO. I'll give you they have missed 6 FG's but why so many FG attempts? Cause they cant score TDS or move the ball once in the red zone?

NO was run on a few times at home last year and still had 4 losses of 1,3,3,and 7. Dunn had 110 on 22 carries last year in NO. The Saints didnt have Brees or Bush and were without Horn and Deuce due to injury. Yet they lost by three and needed 2 defensive scores included.

The falcon offense has played extremely well in the 1st Half scoring 7 points but disappeared in teh 2nd Half just 7 points. I believe that while its obvious ATL will RUn on 1st and 2nd down with a lead it tellsus Vick still cant make plays on 3rd down especially 3rd and more then 5. He is 0/5 when throwing on 3rd down in 2nd H. Its teh same ole Falcons and the same ole Vick.

NO went toe to toe with them last year 3 pt loss and 3 pt defecit at half in ATL. Now they have playmakers in Bush and Deuce . I think you would agree a huge upgrade from Stecker and A.Smith. Brees is better then Brooks and doesnt force passes like Aaron did. The Saints defense I dont think is that bad.

As far I am concerned this line should probably be -1.5 ATL and with ATL scoring 20 0r 23 points here I'll take the Sainst to put some on the board. If Tb doesnt miss 2 FGs and threw 2 PICKS in the end zoen they would have got there. I would hope no one is impressed with holding Carolian to 6 in teh opener. When Smith is OUT and the offense is not accustomed to him being out.

 

[SportsNut]

This time I meant to reply here.

I think NO is seriously being underrated and ATL so overrated. We can knock GB and Cle all day long but fact is NO won on the road. The Saints are a new team with new faces...not to mention 2 ex - Cowboys and 2 ex-Eagles starting on D.

How did GB move the ball on them thru the air lets see Vick do it. NO needs to play smart with the ball and not turn it over. As far as offensive firepower I dont see a team with a clear edge. You have to think special teams get a Saints nod with Reggie and Carney kicking instead of a 46 yr old guy playing his 1st game in years. I'll give the ATL defense a slight edge cause its still ATL road defense against NO home defense.

I think NO is a marginal play but dont see any value in ATL here to be honest.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

If Atl's rushing stats from last year are rendered useless than NO's losses of 1,3,3, 7 are as well...they were not even in the Superdome...and they were last year...

Once again...I think this is a very tough game to cap and one that wouldn't be played if not for on primetime...I've read your threads today Sportsnut and u make very fine points...but in no way do I see as cut and dry as u make it sound...

Fact is ATL has owned this series.....and this ATL team has added veteran presences at safety and D line and have budding superstars at DB...I think this is an improved ATL team and will rarely if ever fade them on turf when I choose to play their games...one side or the other...

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I meant to mention that if anyone watched the GB/NO replay u saw a very suspect at best OLine....Brees was under constant pressure....If Abraham was a go I would really see ATL dominating on both sides of the ball...but Kerney and the rest of that D Line is still very good at pressuring the QB...i think this is a big advantage for ATL.

 

[SportsNut]

Jump-

Thats not my point. My point is ATL rushing yards havent led to points. taking that a step further and looking at last years results NO still struggled vs the run but that didnt translate into them being beat badly. They still managed to struggle stop the running game and yet still had 4 close losses 1,3,3,7. Now the fact about last years game not being in the Superdome actually is a PRO arguement for both. ATL gets the run on the fast track and NO truly gets ahome field edge now.

The point you might be missing is why will ATL run more this year then last against NO? If anything NO has improved vs the run no matter how weak the opponent. Dunn and Vick on the road didnt exactly score at will last season as I pointed out two defensive scores.

I am not trying to make it sound easy by any strecth. I only see a marginal edge in NO. bottomline is no one seems to understand lines. Last nite people tell me PATS are going to win caus ethey want revenge. Thats great and all BUT what does that have to do with NE covering a 6 , 6.5 or 7 pt spread?

Same stuff here everyone keeps talking about how ATL will run BUT no one has said how ATL will score, how ATL will kick FG's , how ATL will convert 3rd downs if they are passing situtaions. All we here is ATL is awesome running the ball and NO isnt so good at stopping. Thats not capping a game thats stating the obvious.

The only thing I see is as cut and dry is that this line isprobably 2 points to high........

Milloy is a nice pickup and Hall is so much talk I dont really think he is half as good as he think he is. What about the NO pickups 4 new starters on defense...Bush , Brees return of Horn and Deuce. We have seen nothing but the same ole Falcons in my opinion. Abraham is the difference maker and he probably is OUT.

Also I dont see much use in comparing OL play on the road to home. Every OL struggles some on the road......tough to predict how NO will play here w/o a true home game in so long to build off.

I think NO could easily be a 9-7 team and has alot of talent we dont here about.....

This isnt as clear as Denver was last nite but I still havent heard a sound ATL arguement and fell like if I dont I should back NO heavily.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I am not trying to make it sound easy by any strecth. I only see a marginal edge in NO. bottomline is no one seems to understand lines. Last nite people tell me PATS are going to win caus ethey want revenge. Thats great and all BUT what does that have to do with NE covering a 6 , 6.5 or 7 pt spread?

I had DENVER, so I can't help ya there..

Same stuff here everyone keeps talking about how ATL will run BUT no one has said how ATL will score, how ATL will kick FG's , how ATL will convert 3rd downs if they are passing situtaions. All we here is ATL is awesome running the ball and NO isnt so good at stopping. Thats not capping a game thats stating the obvious.

I can certainly use the TB and CAR have better red zone defenses than NO argument, but you'll only let me use last years stats to support your side and not the ATL side...

ATL will kick FG's because they have one of the most accurate in history inside 40 yds now...the long kicker remains the guy they signed last year to do it.

They'll convert third downs like they do each week...by staying in short and manageable...getting Vick on a run/pass option...and utilizing the Tight End on crossing routes...

The only thing I see is as cut and dry is that this line isprobably 2 points to high........

what's the line if this game was in ATL?? I say ATL -7 and who would u support then?

Milloy is a nice pickup and Hall is so much talk I dont really think he is half as good as he think he is. What about the NO pickups 4 new starters on defense...Bush , Brees return of Horn and Deuce. We have seen nothing but the same ole Falcons in my opinion. Abraham is the difference maker and he probably is OUT.

That's my point...those aren't pickups on defense, they're on offense...and that's where I don't see any difference from last year...I see one team that got better on O, stayed marginal on D...the other remained above avg on O, and improved on D...

Also I dont see much use in comparing OL play on the road to home. Every OL struggles some on the road......tough to predict how NO will play here w/o a true home game in so long to build off.

Agree to an extent but you can either block or you can't ...they weren't getting beat on the snap count...they were getting outmanned at every position and Brees become very uneasy in the pocket...



Once again...I've repeated all day this is a marginal play at best, ON EITHER SIDE....You can try and convince me that NO is the only side on the board all u want...it's incorrect IMO...

I can only go on what I've seen thus far....I think this can go either way and if NO wins, it will be a feelgood story and w/ what I'm wagering, I won't blink an eye...

Enjoy the game and good health...

 

[SportsNut]

Good work Jump. This is my goal promote discussion.

Glad you were on DENVER. It was very good to me had Denver , Under and Denver ML small. I also outlined my thoughts in BDK thread last nite.

I agree with you that they have better red zone defenses but this has always been a problem for ATL. So what you are saying it was the opposing defense that slowed them. While I am saying its Vick's shortcomings throwing the football that is slowing.

you seriously not concerned about a 46 year old who hasnt played in 2 seasons and didnt even come to camp with anyone? They have Koenen still who has a strong leg and is 2 of 8 this year. I dont see him attempting FGs tonite not after an 0-4 game followed by the signing a new PK.

They dont convert 3rd downs every week at 9 of 26 and I think only 1 or 2 in the 2nd half. The key is what you said keeping it third and manageable.

See , no offense but if the line is -4 here and there setting the line for a game in ATL w/o these results the line would be -10 or so...just like it was last year. -4 away mean -7 neutral and -10 at home...thats the very simplistic approach. The line would not be -7 in ATL... I still like NO. A tru eline would be a PK here based on reflection of the teams play to this point...really if ATL won I think its by a FG and thats it.

Now they added on DEFENSE Simoneau , Fujita , Shanle at LB as well as Hollis Thomas . Thats 2 ex- eagles a very good defensive unit and 2 ex Boys a solid defensive unit. So there were additions and I think they were upgrades. The offensive upgrades are major.

NO wont win cause of the feelgood aspect they win caus ethey can go head to head with an overraed ATL team.

I am not saying your incorrect. I dont think anyone has eased my concerns. Your response are sound but the seem faith based...u have faith in a 46 yr old K who hasnt played, you have faith they will be in all 3rd and shorts. I have faith that NO is the team they have shown in weeks 1 and 2 to be winning games on the road.

If ATL translates FG opps to TDS were talking problems but I dont see them. I wish this line ran higher and didnt.

You know the point of a forum is to agree view points in a friednly manner. Thats all I am doing.............GL bro!

 

[Fondybadger]

Its like watching two heavy weights pulling out all their tricks... Good health tonight Jump...

 

[SportsNut]

Hey Fondy you know me I am not afraid to be wrong. I think one thing for sure if ATL wins it wont be by less then 10 pts. I would think NO would have laided an egg to lose......

I just think NO is taking advantage of the talent they have and playing to peak instead of consistently underacheiving. I dont think anything JUMP said is really incorrect or wrong just a slant on view points. I never want to be wrong after so much effort. GL all

 

[The Farm]

took the saints small action...
It should prove to be a good game